Forecasts only.High pressure to stick around.

Snowbie

For the last week we have our HP to the west bringing down a northerly flow across Ireland.It is now slipping to the south of the country alowing in a westerly flow to take over bringing the temperatures back to average.On the plus side no strong winds or heavy rain(Zonality)is forecast this week,except for the odd rain interuption mainly in the west.

As with a strong anticyclone it is more accurate to forecast beyond a 3 day peroid and more into FI.(Fantasy island).
Now it gets a bit more interesting with a -AO(Neg Artic Oscilation) and the high potential of pressure rise over the Artic and Greenland which will mean a more potent Northern block and reintroducing colder Northerlies across Ireland maybe in little over a week away.
This is however a bit deeper in FI and can swing either way

Again puts model watching this week back on the agenda.

ninebeanrows

J'adore





Sooooo far away but decent ensembles agreement on the 0z... we await the 6z ensembles in 30 minutes;)

Lately WC,I come in here when I see your posts just to brighten up my day

J'adore is right

You should have saved that chart though as the link will show something different in your post when the 12z is out etc etc.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Lately WC,I come in here when I see your posts just to brighten up my day

J'adore is right

You should have saved that chart though as the link will show something different in your post when the 12z is out etc etc.

Yes i really should have... now it looks like i love mild southwesterlies:D

darkman2

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

Suppose it looks okay :rolleyes:

Might just be cold enough for snow from that chart but condtions would have to be perfect and dewpoints etc..:)


hahhaa:D

Sierra Oscar

Oh noes.....:(

SpitfireIV

darkman2 wrote:

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

Warthercheck wrote:

Suppose it looks okay

Might just be cold enough for snow from that chart but condtions would have to be perfect and dewpoints etc..


hahhaa

Ok, can someone please explain to me (in layman terms ) just what the hell is going on?? Is there another event in the near further, or just some charts in FI thats gotten some imaginations working overtime?

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Ok, can someone please explain to me (in layman terms ) just what the hell is going on?? Is there another event in the near further, or just some charts in FI thats gotten some imaginations working overtime?

Some charts in FI has got the imaginations running again:eek: :rolleyes:

Lack of snow make me go crazy:D

although there is a chance of a cold spell in early February from around the 5th.. if we were to get a stroke of luck;)

Indeed.
I'd expect it to be a 3 day wonder with sleet on the coast and a cm or 2 around carlow as per usual recently.

Basically it seems that WE need the cold that KENT used get in the 80's for our snow now-they are getting what we used get back then if you follow me.

My trips onto the mountains in our recent sleety spells (and thats all they are even if it is snowing) underline how its usually 1 to 2 c too warm in recent years and you have to climb to 1500 ft to see the icicles that we used get years ago at sea level.

As for the FI runs-one or two swallows dont make a summer as one or two runs dont make a winter.
Expect them to be pushed further and further back and if something does happen,it will be in march when in recent warmer times it will be too late.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Indeed.
I'd expect it to be a 3 day wonder with sleet on the coast and a cm or 2 around carlow as per usual recently.

Basically it seems that WE need the cold that KENT used get in the 80's for our snow now-they are getting what we used get back then if you follow me.

My trips onto the mountains in our recent sleety spells (and thats all they are even if it is snowing) underline how its usually 1 to 2 c too warm in recent years and you have to climb to 1500 ft to see the icicles that we used get years ago at sea level.

As for the FI runs-one or two swallows dont make a summer as one or two runs dont make a winter.
Expect them to be pushed further and further back and if something does happen,it will be in march when in recent warmer times it will be too late.

God way to sum things up in just a short few sentences.

Although there is one good thing on our side, i will be sitting my mocks from February 6th so if there is ever likely to be a cold spell, that's the time.

We won't know until around Tuesday/Wednesday whether this cold spell is really likely.

Supercell

The Kent stuff is marginal tbh, they think all is fine and winters are in fact better than ever, the truth is they were not marginal in a cold spell, but i'll bet in the next 5-10 years the kent winter spells turn into drizzle spells like here.

Snow is extinct here below 500 meters or a severe cold snap.

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Snow is extinct here below 500 meters or a severe cold snap.

Ha - The winter is far from over yet, Longfield!

Hope you've recovered from the 'minor' snow event last week.

Friday onwards looks interesting on wetterzentrale. Where that high goes
from there is anyones guess.

A

Danno

It is getting pushed back all the time, downgraded, etc...

Basically Global Warming is truely in charge now... expect this theme to continue.

When Bulgaria is over 20c warmer than average, then it is time to give up.

Linky: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/22012007news.shtml

Imagine 20c warmer than average here in January?

MetLuver

Thats not strictly true. Global warming may only be partly to blame for this recent warm spate of winters. The Atlantic ocean is currently going through a warm phase this is the main reason its been so mild, the positive NOA the past few years has warmed our seas so much that it is nearly impossible to have a sustained cold spell. The pacific decadle oscillation PDO is a cousin of the NAO and currently is going through a cold phase when that changes so will our weather.

ninebeanrows

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?29-0

Tonights ECM remind anyone of anything:D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119820108.gif

Overall though to be honest things are about as uncertain as they could be;)

Danno

MetLuver wrote:

Thats not strictly true. Global warming may only be partly to blame for this recent warm spate of winters. The Atlantic ocean is currently going through a warm phase this is the main reason its been so mild, the positive NOA the past few years has warmed our seas so much that it is nearly impossible to have a sustained cold spell. The pacific decadle oscillation PDO is a cousin of the NAO and currently is going through a cold phase when that changes so will our weather.

And when this is finished, the solar activity will be getting going again... piff, excuses the whole time on why we are getting mild winter after mild winder. This is mild winter number 19 ON THE TROT. Global warming is real and IS WHY we are not getting cold winters anymore.

MetLuver

:eek: Whow there! down boy. Whats with all the piffs and puffs be god, im just trying to state that there are other factors involved and that nothing with the weather is black and white!
Excuse me if I seemed to suggest I dont think global warming is not a factor-of corse it is and I believe I mentioned global warming is only PARTLY to blame I didnt say it wasnt to blame at all.

darkman2

Some good news on the GFS today, very much the possibility of transitional snow later next week.:)

ninebeanrows

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

They say a 1982 event cant happen again but ... we've got some very similar charts been progged..

Were just an inch from a spectacular set-up.. and it could pop up on us without warning..

Keeps your eyes on the models..

Hal1

Met.ie is predicting some accumulations of the white stuff in the north east on monday, surely thats a good sign if thats the direction its coming from.

Supercell

Hal1 wrote:

Met.ie is predicting some accumulations of the white stuff in the north east on monday, surely thats a good sign if thats the direction its coming from.

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

For the rest of us its probably rain or drizzle.

We need -8°C at the 850 heights imho before there is a remote chance of snow, -10°C for substantial sea level snow( >1cm lying at 09:00 AM ) that might settle (thats about a 1 in 10 year chance these days it seems)

Am looking at the current charts and not getting excited, no proper cold there at all, just brief chance of snow on some mountaintops and maybe at lower levels in N Ireland.

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

I know the military road in Wicklow hits 500M in spots. This could be the highest public road in Ireland. Maybe there is one in Kerry thats higher??

The road to the upper reservoir at Turlough Hill goes above 600 but I think thats private.

A

Takeshi_Kovacs

arctictree wrote:

I know the military road in Wicklow hits 500M in spots. This could be the highest public road in Ireland. Maybe there is one in Kerry thats higher??

The road to the upper reservoir at Turlough Hill goes above 600 but I think thats private.

A

I think the Conor pass is one of the highest, i'm not sure about exact height, but anytime it snows, it usually has to be closed..

darkman2

Latest GFS gives heavy snow to our freinds across the water. Nothing for us although things are changing all the time so we are still in with a shout. At least if they did get their blizzard in the UK it would stop some of the moaning:p

arctictree

Tomorrow looks like a cracker of a day. Looks downhill from Tuesday onwards....

I think it will get milder then - are all the charts agreeing on this??

A

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

For the rest of us its probably rain or drizzle.

We need -8°C at the 850 heights imho before there is a remote chance of snow, -10°C for substantial sea level snow( >1cm lying at 09:00 AM ) that might settle (thats about a 1 in 10 year chance these days it seems)

Am looking at the current charts and not getting excited, no proper cold there at all, just brief chance of snow on some mountaintops and maybe at lower levels in N Ireland.

Well a 3 day cold spell with frost and some snow showers for the far noth from this weekend.

With regard to the low approaching around monday... the whole thing about 850 temps and dewpoints really get thrown out the window.. once 850'a are below freezing ie -1/-2c and 2m temperatures are freezing it can snow even with a high DP.

Nothing is clear yet and the breakdown next week will change lots of times before it Monday comes.

Danno

I am after looking at all the models, GFS, JMA, NGP, GEM, GME and even Hirlam. NONE of them are in agreement! This could go anyway.

Trogdor

I think that low won't make as much progress west as is being shown which could let the colder air to the east come slightly further west with the ppn stalling over ireland or maybe not even making it. Although with things chopping and changing so much on the models atm, it's impossible to forecast anything past 48 hours.

darkman2

UKMO is a real boost to our prospects. Might not look like much but this is coming up against really cold air on a steep thermal gradient and the 528DAM line just to its north.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Supercell

Charts are still all over the place, encouragingly some of them are showing 850's below -8°C, wheter we get precipitation though is another matter while the upper air is that cold.

All to play for, too early to write it off, too early to get excited either though.

Fingers and toes crossed here.

Scubadevils

I fear that by the looks of things if anything in terms of snow comes off that it will be too far east for us, certainly looks that way today anyway.

ninebeanrows

Many solutions are possible at this stage.

All thats pretty concrete is colder conditions to arrive next Monday with potential for some heavy frontal snowfall towards Wednesday across northern and northeastern areas in particular.. This off course is very uncertain at this point.

But we all know memorable snow events are always knive edge situations. Hopefully the 0z will offer better guidance because the disagreement with tonights 18z ensembles is not helping the situation!!!;)

Scubadevils

Yes but in my very amatuer opinion, the last few runs seem to be agreeing more that the potential mild/cold battle will take place over the UK, more so the Eastern half. I know its knife edge for the UK still, but it looks razor edge for us, if even.

rc28

Im surprised it's so quiet in here what with all the excitement about what the models are showing for next week?
Weather check is discussing it today:
http://weathercheck.net/
The english weather forums are buzzing with it too:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36136&st=119
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/18/180934/ShowThread.aspx

I'm no expert at all so can someone with more knowledge of how to read model output charts say if ireland has a chance of seeing a coldsnap anytime soon.

SpitfireIV

I guess there is no excitement as its still so uncertain still, anything could happen, and from reading WeatherCheck its talking about the Northeast getting snow.....on Thursday night/Friday, thats still a long way off, and I dont live in the Northeast...darn :rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Good morning folks, things are looking so interesting..

After much debate on the upcoming weather, slowly over the last 24 hours high pressure had been increasingly progged over Scandy! yes a Scandy high!
And this morning UKM,GFS have this Scandyhigh in good feather..

From tomorrow cold air will push down from the north temperatures will probably be higher than today nonetheless due to this mornings freezing fog.

Monday night will see a hard frost across Ireland, with signs of pressure building over souther Norway.. meanwhile out in the Atlantic low pressure systems will be trying to push in.

Tuesday will be a very cold day maxes of 2-5c as some cloud moves in from the west. It will be a bitterly cold day. Pressure meanwhile will be upto 1035mb over Scandanavia. Meanwhile cloud will be spilling into the west ahead of a shortwave. Temperatures will rise in the far west but there will be a harsh frost in the east and north.

Now this is where it could get interesting, this shortwave is forecast to swing south and tracking into southern England pushing the cold air over the UK and continent back into the east. And bringing with it lots of precip. Heavy snow is likely along the northern bank of this precipitation. And under the right conditions really big falls of snow are likely..

This shortwave will then track into europe with a slack eastery flow following..

This is all uncertain atm but is what the UKM and GFS progg
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

So exciting with so much potential for further development, this Scandy high is going to cause mayhem!:D

lucernarian

Hehe, a typically bullish post from Weathercheck. There is an interesting secondary LP on Friday night in the 06z run which would give northern parts of the british isles a significant amount of snow, though the LP is not quite willing to slide southwards. It's still better than the deep depression in the Atlantic which was to push into the block between Ireland and Iceland.

I'm certain when I say that the models are terribly unreliable for the end of next week. It's a very very complex situation and one to be watched:)

rc28

Yes, now meteireann have completely changed their mild forecast. They are now giving no mention of mild weather and are going for prolonged "rain,sleet and snow" for wednesday and thursday. In any cold snap they always include rain with sleet and snow in their forecasts to be on the safe side:
http://www.met.ie/
Where is everyone and the cold ramping to go with it???

arctictree

OK - was holding off until we got some mention of it on met.ie.

Yeah, their forecast has completely changed now.

So looks like precip on Tuesday with further precip on Wed/Thurs. Again, its all down to temps.

BTW - I can see the north east flank of Lugnaquilla from here and there is still snow on it from the last event!

A

ninebeanrows

rc28 wrote:

Yes, now meteireann have completely changed their mild forecast. They are now giving no mention of mild weather and are going for prolonged "rain,sleet and snow" for wednesday and thursday. In any cold snap they always include rain with sleet and snow in their forecasts to be on the safe side:
http://www.met.ie/
Where is everyone and the cold ramping to go with it???

It is because of there is such uncertainty!

Like the models diverge at 72hrs:eek:

Hopefully some good ensemble agreement although the persistant increase in the cold spell is a very welcome trend:D

Looks very interesting and all in the week of my Mocks... typical!! It was bound to happen wasn't it:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Here's an interesting one for you..

I wake up on Thursday morning it's beginning to snow heavily by 8am theres a few inches on the ground do i go to my English PP2 exam:o and then i come back at lunch.. theres 9 inches of snow.. do i go to my Maths PP1 exam after lunch:eek: :rolleyes:

lucernarian

Rain, sleet and snow usually means snow on higher ground. The latest model outputs look good, but it's too borderline to call. We really shouldn't get our hopes up, look at 12th March last year. Rain on the east coast with snow on the Isle of Mann! For a location like Ireland, things need to be particularly well balanced for a memorable event.

And remember, the easterly has to cross over a warmer-than-average Irish Sea. I'm going to back the cold rain option, but with the HP to resist the LP and remain in place somewhere near Scandanavia. The 00z ECM is not a likely outcome I feel.

On the bright side, look at this simply brilliant 00z UKMO chart:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

rc28

Don't forget people that the farming forecast is on at 1:15. I hope it's not that awful pessimistic one who seems to love mild boring muck, i forget his name

ninebeanrows

That forecast there was pretty poor/ the gulf in class between that forecast and the Uk Meto's one is quite embarrassing!

I think they covered there bottoms enough.. but the charts they progged were from the wildly mild ECM outlier from this morning..

And the confidence he placed in the LP's getting across come the end of the weeks was abit misplaced..

A poor forecast but i think they just about will get away with it when we get snowed in on Thursday:p

lucernarian

I agree, the forecast was very, very similar to the 00z ecm which I thought was not a likely outcome. He was keeping the snow on the table, though I think he was right to downplay the risk of snow. But it's a little early to call it "transitional" sleet/snow.;)

Snowbie

You cannot call snow if its not certain and especially this far out EG:Met IE

If whoever is forecasting snow on thursday on this forum, MET IE will not say anything till Wedensday.Rule of thumb.

Tis why they have the rain sleet snow garble on the forecast.There unsure.In fact so am i.

lucernarian

From what I can see, in these borderline situations, the mountains are quite likely to get snow no matter if the outcome is on the warm or cold side. I thought he was correct to keep it limited to wintry precipitation as it's uncertain still.

Snowbie, I think WC was being ironic when he mentioned snow on Thursday. His mocks and all that.

And back to the models:D

So far there is an amazing difference in this run!! The LP has moved a fair distance southwards and turned into a channel low, except the HP has completely deflected the precipitation southwards. This event is truly a bitch to nail down. It seems certain anyway that the HP will be stronger than anyone thought it would be.

How did the ECMWF get rid of the HP as soon as t+72? The GFS has moved even further away from the ECM prediction.

By the way, it looks like the UKMO are the best model so far at picking up the trends for this week. But still 4/5 days of changes to go:)

ninebeanrows

12z moves the low too far south on Wednesday/ Second bash gives transitional snow...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

The cold spell has been prologned and upgraded so much in the last few runs!!:D

darkman2

You know if that was slightly further north......


Still great run. Great potential. Heavy snow for a time before rain but still 48hrs is probrably fantasy Island atm and dont forget the nightmare ECM.

lucernarian

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1262.png

What more can I say:p A pity the chart is for over 5 days away... It can't really get better than that if I wanted a channel low to bring snow to Louth.

"It's a long way to go..."