Playing huge draw on the flop

Scouser in Dub

SnG yesterday though HH not on this PC

Villain has raised my blind a number of times from the button without me playing back at him. Have seen him throw out pot size CB's when checked to him on the flop and also seen him fold to a half pot lead into him

Effective stacks 3000 and BB100 Level 3

folded into the button he raises 300 SB folds I look down at J9h and call Pot 800

flop gives me a monster draw 8h10s3h I have OESD and Flush draw

I don't want him to fold if I lead into him and expecting him to bet if I check I check looking to CRAI

Standard?

BigCityBanker

Why do you want him to come along for the ride?

Push now and take down the pot, if he calls ur in good shape!

Scouser in Dub

I still think he can fold if I raise, if he bets light on the flop he can lay it down if he doesn't I reckon on being a favourite with 15 outs on two streets I want to get the money in on the flop as my chance of hitting reduces drastically if the turn is a brick.

ntlbell

how is there 800 in the pot?

Pot is 650 correct?

BCB pushing 2.7k into this pot is madness.

gocall01

I'm in with BCB on this.
Yes, you have a shed load of outs.
Push now, take pot, if called, huge percentage to hit one of the outs.

In this situation if you have a made hand and you expect the raise from the button if checked to, then crai.

This is my line 80% of time but I "crazy Ivan" sometimes just to change it up.
I might use your line here for that purpose from time to time.

There is more to pushing than just getting the pot.
Sending the meesage that you are not the one to be picked on is as important in this instance IMHO.

BigCityBanker

NTL - I see I have read it wrong. I thought preflop was raised to 800.

Scouser in Dub

sorry he raised 300 to 400 there is 850 in the pot with the SB we effective stacks here are then 2600

cardshark202

Easy fold preflop. The call there was a huge mistake. As played crai is best.

5starpool

Scouser in Dub wrote:

sorry he raised 300 to 400 there is 850 in the pot with the SB we effective stacks here are then 2600

For consistency it would be best if you specify the total amount of the bet. This would clarify whether it was raised to 300 or by 300. In this case it appears to be by 300 to 400.

Cardsharks line is probably how most people would play this, myself usually included.

Scouser in Dub

yeah it was raised by

I usually would put this down pre but he had been at my blind on three orbits since he had been the button to my BB and I had seen him lay down to a C-Bet on the flop

I kinda got shouted down for CRAI on a draw but I thought it made sense

Gholimoli

OP,
You said that you don’t want villain to fold his hand, why not?
Your hand is J high here!

For those who say shoving is not good but CRAI is good, this is crazy talk.
When you CRAI he will have to call with a lot of hands that are currently ahead of you which he would have dropped had you just shoved.
Also CRAI depends on the element of villain betting if you check which is not always the case and should he check behind then your equity decreases hugely on the turn, which is very bad.
The object here should be to get as much money in to the pot as possible on the flop while your equity is possibly 50%+ .a shove here increases your EV (not pot equity) as he will fold a lot of the time allowing you to take the pot.

ntlbell

Gholimoli wrote:

OP,
You said that you don’t want villain to fold his hand, why not?
Your hand is J high here!

For those who say shoving is not good but CRAI is good, this is crazy talk.
When you CRAI he will have to call with a lot of hands that are currently ahead of you which he would have dropped had you just shoved.
Also CRAI depends on the element of villain betting if you check which is not always the case and should he check behind then your equity decreases hugely on the turn, which is very bad.
The object here should be to get as much money in to the pot as possible on the flop while your equity is possibly 50%+ .a shove here increases your EV (not pot equity) as he will fold a lot of the time allowing you to take the pot.

He's back!

When the pot was what I originally thoguht 650 do you shove?

What the pot was 400 do you still shove?

Gholimoli

ntlbell wrote:

He's back!

When the pot was what I originally thoguht 650 do you shove?

What the pot was 400 do you still shove?

as long as the pot is above 0,then when you have 50%+ pot equity means a shove is profitable .
this is purely your pot equity .add to that the times wher he folds and your over all EV of a shove increases.

Shadowless

Maybe i'm just a little slow today but isn't it a good thing if villan calls our CRAI? Hero is the favourite in this spot no?

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

OP,
You said that you don’t want villain to fold his hand, why not?
Your hand is J high here!

For those who say shoving is not good but CRAI is good, this is crazy talk.
When you CRAI he will have to call with a lot of hands that are currently ahead of you which he would have dropped had you just shoved.
Also CRAI depends on the element of villain betting if you check which is not always the case and should he check behind then your equity decreases hugely on the turn, which is very bad.
The object here should be to get as much money in to the pot as possible on the flop while your equity is possibly 50%+ .a shove here increases your EV (not pot equity) as he will fold a lot of the time allowing you to take the pot.

CRAI has way more EV than an openshove. When we open shove we lose a cbet which according to the OP is a cert so when we open-shove he will only call with hands that are ahead of us whereas if he cbets and we shove and he feels committed then any of those hands are probably an equity dog vs us and the rest of the hands he folds.

EDIT: Welcome back gholi

Hitman Actual

cardshark202 wrote:

CRAI has way more EV than an openshove. When we open shove we lose a cbet which according to the OP is a cert so when we open-shove he will only call with hands that are ahead of us whereas if he cbets and we shove and he feels committed then any of those hands are probably an equity dog vs us and the rest of the hands he folds.

EDIT: Welcome back gholi

I'm with cardshark on this one, CRAI is almost definately more profitable than pushing against a serial c-bettor. Haven't time to look at any maths though.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

CRAI has way more EV than an openshove. When we open shove we lose a cbet which according to the OP is a cert so when we open-shove he will only call with hands that are ahead of us whereas if he cbets and we shove and he feels committed then any of those hands are probably an equity dog vs us and the rest of the hands he folds.

EDIT: Welcome back gholi

this is wrong.

as i said a CRAI depends totally on the actions of villain and you can never be certain what his actions are .if you think there is 80% chance of his betting if you check then the EV calculation of CRAI should take in to account the 20% where he dosent.

also when you check and villain bets,then he would almost always be prised in calling our CR.
this is good for times when we have 50%+ equity but as this is not the always the case then by doing this we lose alot of EV on our FE.
for example if we have exactly 50% equity then shoving has higher EV than CRAI as CRAI we are grtd to lose the pot 50% (becuase we are assuming he always calls) but with the same 50% equity if we shove we can with the pot certain % of the time + when we get called we win the pot 50% .
these two combined will have a higher EV.

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

this is wrong.

as i said a CRAI depends totally on the actions of villain and you can never be certain what his actions are .if you think there is 80% chance of his betting if you check then the EV calculation of CRAI should take in to account the 20% where he dosent.

also when you check and villain bets,then he would almost always be prised in calling our CR.
this is good for times when we have 50%+ equity but as this is not the always the case then by doing this we lose alot of EV on our FE.
for example if we have exactly 50% equity then shoving has higher EV than CRAI as CRAI we are grtd to lose the pot 50% (becuase we are assuming he always calls) but with the same 50% equity if we shove we can with the pot certain % of the time + when we get called we win the pot 50% .
these two combined will have a higher EV.

No.

We definitely have way more than 50% equity against his range.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

for example if we have exactly 50% equity then shoving has higher EV than CRAI as CRAI we are grtd to lose the pot 50% (becuase we are assuming he always calls) but with the same 50% equity if we shove we can with the pot certain % of the time + when we get called we win the pot 50% .

You definately can't assume this. He c-bets a lot, so he has air a lot of the time. So you check, he bets pot, you push. I know he's getting great odds to call (~3/1), but he folds most of the time when he has nothing. Even with two overcards it's a marginal call for him. So when he folds to the CRAI, you pick up the extra 800 that he c-bets. So:

lenny_leonard wrote:

if we CRAI we can with the pot certain % of the time + when we get called we win the pot 50%

There mightn't be much between the two, but I think CRAI offers a higher EV.

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

There mightn't be much between the two, but I think CRAI offers a higher EV.

no it dosent.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

no it dosent.

Categorical proof there then. :rolleyes: Gholi is definately back! Show me some maths and I'll believe you.

Scouser in Dub

only if the opponent in this hand can never lay down to a CRAI. if he is getting 2.5/1 but has none of it he can lay down he has C-bet every flop checked into him on the button 1800 is still playable at 50/100

I still thought he could lay down the worst hands that he would c-bet with

5starpool

Gholi, I really doubt that open pushing 2600 into an 850 pot is the best action here. AhTh or a set is the worst case scenario for us. Even AhKh is not the worst holding as we still have 12 outs on the turn to lead.

Welcome back, glad to see you have learnt some humility during your break.

ntlbell

lenny_leonard wrote:

Categorical proof there then. :rolleyes: Gholi is definately back! Show me some maths and I'll believe you.

Lenny you're usually pretty nifty with the maths any chance of showing us some of your skills here?


<I'm not taking the piss>

Gholimoli

we assume the following :
1.we have 50%+ pot equity on the flop .this is based on the fact that we have 15 outs which means we have to catch one of them to win which means if we dont we lose the hand .



2.villain bets a high % of times when checked to .we say 80% .we cant possibly say he bets 100% as there is no way we can be sure what his action is going to be.

3.the pot is a number=p and each player has a stack of =4p .

now if we shove the flop and get called x% then we win 5p x/2% and lose 4p x/2% .
also if he calls x% that means he folds (100-x)% of the time in which case we pick up 1p so the over all EV is

EV = (x/2 )x 1p + (100-x) x p

what the above suggest is that we have alot to gain by him actually folding his hand.
another an even more important point about the above equation is that its always + no matter what x is which means your EV of this move is always positive .this is very important becuase it means villain cant do anything to change that so if he calls all the time or folds all the time or calls more than he folds or folds more than he calls ,you will always have a +EV.

now consider CRAI:

you check and villain bets pot which is P .
villain does this 80% of the time and checks behind 20% of the time.
now what im going to do (cuz its easier) is see how much we lose EV on thoes 20% that he checks behind.

just to remin you we assumed that we have 50% equity on the flop but we have to catch and if we dont we will lose.

now on the turn our equity will be halfed which means 25% instead of 50%.

from here on we have significant disadvantage on any money going in .

the other 80% will have the same EV as when we shove as all the money goes in on the flop .

so basically CRAI has the same EV as shove minus the % of the time where villain checks behind.

there is however one thing.
the % of times when villain Cbets the flop but folds to a jam.
we can earn an additional p(assuming villain bets a full p with a Cbet) when this happens.
however i dont think this is that much at all considering villain will be getting 2:1 on his money (i think ) to call ,making a call very likely.

i hope this makes sense and im sure i will be corrected if my math is wrong but basically what im trying to say is:

1.we want all the money going in on the flop as we have 50% equity .
shoving would make sure this happens while CR does not.

2.we gain alot of EV by villain folding as well which makes a shove an unexploitable play (we are happy if he calls and happy if he folds) but he can exploit us by checking behind on the flop if we check and then by betting the turn.

Hitman Actual

My interpretation:

Pot = 850, stacks = 2600 each.

---

Open Push
When we open push, assume villain folds 75% of the time. Also, we're 50/50 if the money goes in. So the EV is:

EV_openpush = 0.75(850) + 0.25[0.5(3450) + 0.5(-2600)] = 743.75

---

CRAI
For CRAI, assume villain c-bets pot 80% of the time, and he calls the AI twice as often as an open-push (so he folds 37.5% of the time). So the EV of CRAI is:

EV_crai = 0.8[0.375(1700) + 0.625[0.5(3450) + 0.5(-2600)]] +0.2[???villain_checks_behind???]

= 903.125 + 0.2[???villain_checks_behind???]

The "0.2[???villain_checks???]" part is a bit tricky, but I doubt it's any worse than neutral EV. If we go into check-fold mode when we miss (3 times in 4), then this part is obviously 0. But when we hit something (the other 1 time in 4) and get the money in, we win sometimes (either uncontested or with the best hand), and lose sometimes, but I doubt it's -EV (our hand is still a very good hand!). So assume EV_crai = 903.125

---

So by my interpretation, EV_crai > EV_openpush

mdwexford

I much prefer a CRAI here, its possible the villian has complete air and unless he has a set were a fav, by pushing your not giving him an opportunity to make a continuation bet and your scaring off anything else bar an overpair, you want him to put money in the pot.

If you check you're more than likely getting another bet out of him and its possible he might feel commited after his flop bet with something like A-10 etc

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

we assume the following :
1.we have 50%+ pot equity on the flop .this is based on the fact that we have 15 outs which means we have to catch one of them to win which means if we dont we lose the hand .



2.villain bets a high % of times when checked to .we say 80% .we cant possibly say he bets 100% as there is no way we can be sure what his action is going to be.

3.the pot is a number=p and each player has a stack of =4p .

now if we shove the flop and get called x% then we win 5p x/2% and lose 4p x/2% .
also if he calls x% that means he folds (100-x)% of the time in which case we pick up 1p so the over all EV is

EV = (x/2 )x 1p + (100-x) x p

what the above suggest is that we have alot to gain by him actually folding his hand.
another an even more important point about the above equation is that its always + no matter what x is which means your EV of this move is always positive .this is very important becuase it means villain cant do anything to change that so if he calls all the time or folds all the time or calls more than he folds or folds more than he calls ,you will always have a +EV.

now consider CRAI:

you check and villain bets pot which is P .
villain does this 80% of the time and checks behind 20% of the time.
now what im going to do (cuz its easier) is see how much we lose EV on thoes 20% that he checks behind.

just to remin you we assumed that we have 50% equity on the flop but we have to catch and if we dont we will lose.

now on the turn our equity will be halfed which means 25% instead of 50%.

from here on we have significant disadvantage on any money going in .

the other 80% will have the same EV as when we shove as all the money goes in on the flop .

so basically CRAI has the same EV as shove minus the % of the time where villain checks behind.

there is however one thing.
the % of times when villain Cbets the flop but folds to a jam.
we can earn an additional p(assuming villain bets a full p with a Cbet) when this happens.
however i dont think this is that much at all considering villain will be getting 2:1 on his money (i think ) to call ,making a call very likely.

i hope this makes sense and im sure i will be corrected if my math is wrong but basically what im trying to say is:

1.we want all the money going in on the flop as we have 50% equity .
shoving would make sure this happens while CR does not.

2.we gain alot of EV by villain folding as well which makes a shove an unexploitable play (we are happy if he calls and happy if he folds) but he can exploit us by checking behind on the flop if we check and then by betting the turn.

Wow this is so wrong I don't know where to start. I'm multi-tabling atm but I will have to tear this apart later. Sorry gholi but it will have to be done

RoundTower

I think this is a pretty obvious check, he has the perfect amount behind and will fold a lot, also you don't mind a free card if he checks behind.

cardshark202

Gholi,

How do you come up with the fact that the CRAI has the same EV as a shove - the times he checks behind? It seems like you just made it up. Lenny's post shows things pretty clearly and also shows how not checking in this spot is actually a huge mistake. We must also take into account that his calling range once we shove will actually be tighter than if we CRAI so our hand not only performs better vs his calling range after our CRAI, but we also win more after he folds his cbet.

Also, when you say the crai is exploitable you are quite wrong because no way does he check behind fearing a crai most of the time, not going on this read.

Ste05

Welcome back Gholi, although I think you're a bit rusty TBH.

I'd also be very much in Cardshark's corner here too. I have a feeling this thread will get quite long and interesting but without doing any of the maths myself yet, I'd certainly think that Lenny's calculations are much closer to the reality of the situation.

It's not very often (if ever) correct to Open push 3x the Pot.