Rabbite signals FF Coalition possible...

...at last realpolitik may be breaking through.

From the Examiner...

Rabbitte gives mixed signals about coalition deal with FF

Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte has given mixed signals about whether or not he and his party would be willing to enter a coalition government with Fianna Fáil.

Mr Rabbitte has previously insisted that he would never lead the party into such an alliance.

However, the situation is mired in uncertainty this morning following a number of interviews given by the Labour leader over the weekend.

He told RTÉ Radio that he would not go into coalition with Fianna Fáil after the next election, but then refused to say if he would remain on as leader if the party decided in favour of such an alliance.

He also said such a decision could only be made on the basis of a motion put forward by the party leader and he had no intention of putting forward such a motion "unless the circumstances were right".

In an interview with the Irish Independent, meanwhile, he refused to rule out a coalition deal with Fianna Fail, saying he would have to take the national interest into account.

The newspaper says Mr Rabbitte acknowledged that he may have to rethink his strategy if the only likely alternative is to hold a second general election.

partholon

i cant help thinking rabbitte would be better off using the greens tactic in regards to this issue.

worst comes to worst we will go in but on our terms.

as it stands he's dancing around the issue that makes people suspicous. personally i got shafted by labour before so i fully expect em to go into power with em, after all this is politics.

one other question though, how come no ones asking the question will enda go into power with SF if the figures add up. he's flatly denied it but like pat i wouldnt be surprised if he did. after all its not a million mile away from them going into power with democrat left all those years ago:D

gandalf

Well was just listening to Ruiari Quinn on Newstalk and the Indo did a halchet job on this by editing Pat Rabbittes responses. Looks like "Sir" Tony has thrown the oar in with Fianna Fail for the next election.

The unedited answers are on the labour website. http://www.labour.ie/blog/archive/2007/01/15/what-pat-actually-said/

Must say I hadn't read the papers at all (least of all the Indo) and heard his interview at lunchtime yesterday on RTE Radio 1. And he certainly didn't seem to be ruling out coalition with FF when he spoke about circumstances being right. Googled it today, found Examiner link.

ballooba

This is typical of the tripe put out by the Independent Newspaper Group for years. I don't know why people still buy their papers, they have completely miconstrued what Rabitte said. It is pretty much impossible to draw the conclusions they have from the answers Rabitte gave.

Tony Ryan has decided to keep FF/FG in power, who knows what his reasons are but given that he controls the biggest newspaper in the country he has a lot of power over what happens.

partholon

i wouldnt go that far. i think the days of the newspapers influencing how people will vote are long gone. theres just way too many media outlets out there to choose from now that they dont have the monopoly on reporting anymore

gandalf

TBH I believe this is a non story for one basic reason an awful lot of labour members & supporters remember what happened to them after they jumped into bed with FF last time. They got destroyed in the next election. I left the party after they confirmed they were going into coalition with FF, why because I felt they betrayed the people who voted for them. Every house I canvassed said they were voting Labour to get FF out and then Labour went and threw their vote and wishes back into their faces.

I believe they are still paying the price for that foolish match up and it may cost them in the next election still.

My real coalition worry is that Sinn Fein will get in with FF. Bertie will do anything to stay in power and that includes giving Gerry Adams and his cohort a shoe into government.

sceptre

gandalf wrote:

The unedited answers are on the labour website. http://www.labour.ie/blog/archive/2007/01/15/what-pat-actually-said/

The way I interpret the questions (which, after all, are just as interesting as the answers) is that they expected a "no" to the first question - look at the phrasing of the second one.

ballooba

partholon wrote:

i wouldnt go that far. i think the days of the newspapers influencing how people will vote are long gone. theres just way too many media outlets out there to choose from now that they dont have the monopoly on reporting anymore

For your average Joe Soap, print media is still their number one source for current affairs. TV and Radio falling close behind.

The vast majority of people don't read the internet for news.

sceptre wrote:

The way I interpret the questions (which, after all, are just as interesting as the answers) is that they expected a "no" to the first question - look at the phrasing of the second one.

He has already answered the question several times. They are not going to get a yes or no answer.

I don't believe that labour would go into government with FF. Definitely not with Pat Rabitte as leader.

Going into government with FF would have very negative consequences for Labour in the long run. Consequently, I can't see any potential successor to Pat Rabitte opting to do so.

mickd

Rabbitte was on Pat Kenny this morning he restated his aim of getting FF/PD out of power but refused to rule out coalition with FF. Kenny asked simple yes/no answer which Rabbitte refused to give. One thing is clear from all this is that the majority of people don't want FG governing the country. If they were capable of garnering any decent level of support then none of this speculation would exist.

HelterSkelter

I was considering voting for Labour this year but if they are even half-considering going in with FF then they have lost my vote. I want those shower of arrogant muppets (FF) out of Government altogether. Seems like Labour are selling out to me.

Sleepy

Are politicians in this country interested in issues or simply being in power?

MontgomeryClift

FF media control seems to be so powerful that we have the likes of Pat Kenny and Vincent Browne doing their work for them now, trying to force Pat Rabbitte to admit he likes his opposition after all. And this is before the election and with polls showing the present government with such a lead that they would not need Labour support. Such determination to get an absolute answer for the occurrence of a hypothetical and increasingly unlikely situation!

MontgomeryClift

MontgomeryClift wrote:

FF media control seems to be so powerful that we have the likes of Pat Kenny and Vincent Browne doing their work for them now

Yes, because asking a question before an election like 'would you as leader of the third biggest party go into coalition with the biggest party if the numbers add up' would ONLY be posed after massive backhanders to journos. :rolleyes:

It seems the anti-FF lobby is so consumed by its hatred that they think asking a screamingly obvious question must be evidence of some agenda by Bertie...

J.S. Pill

gandalf wrote:

TBH I believe this is a non story for one basic reason an awful lot of labour members & supporters remember what happened to them after they jumped into bed with FF last time. They got destroyed in the next election. I left the party after they confirmed they were going into coalition with FF, why because I felt they betrayed the people who voted for them. Every house I canvassed said they were voting Labour to get FF out and then Labour went and threw their vote and wishes back into their faces.

I believe they are still paying the price for that foolish match up and it may cost them in the next election still.

Think I'd do the same. I was even considering helping out with the campaign this year but I'd have some serious reservations now.

Anyone got a link to that indo article?

ballooba

mickd wrote:

One thing is clear from all this is that the majority of people don't want FG governing the country.

How exactly is that clear?

There is no such thing as voting for who you don't want to get into Dail Eireann. It's not Big Brother. :rolleyes:

HelterSkelter wrote:

I was considering voting for Labour this year but if they are even half-considering going in with FF then they have lost my vote. I want those shower of arrogant muppets (FF) out of Government altogether. Seems like Labour are selling out to me.

As Pat Rabitte has said, repeatedly, he has no intention of going into government with Fianna Fail. The last time Labour did this they were seriously damaged.

The Irish Independent are trying to undermine Labour and also the FG/Lab pact. They ran a front page article on Graham Geraghty getting a red card against Louth last monday. How petty can you get.

I think Pat Rabitte is quite right not to play their silly little game. Pat Rabitte will never lead his party into coalition with Fianna Fail.

MontgomeryClift wrote:

And this is before the election and with polls showing the present government with such a lead that they would not need Labour support. Such determination to get an absolute answer for the occurrence of a hypothetical and increasingly unlikely situation!

That is a lie. Recent polls would indicate that a PD/FF coalition will not be possible. The PDs are unlikely to be in government next time round.

Recent Polls would also indicate that PDs may not even be in the Dail next year.

You may have drawn the above assumptions from the IMS poll which was published over the weekend. This is only one poll and IMS is famously unreliable.

Deleted User wrote:

Yes, because asking a question before an election like 'would you as leader of the third biggest party go into coalition with the biggest party if the numbers add up' would ONLY be posed after massive backhanders to journos. :rolleyes:

Quite right. Bertie does not need to control the Indo. Tony O'Reilly has his own agenda. He still has a bee in his bonnet over the Rainbow government denying him a mobile phone licence. It's a pity so many people buy his rags.

gandalf

Well looking at the two broadsheets today (ok calling the Indo a broadsheet is stretching the imagination).

The Independent/FF Gazette - Howlin breaks ranks over Labour's poll pact with FG

The Irish Times - Rabbitte says he wants FF out of office

Sir Toady is onto a promise of some kind from Bertie or maybe Sam Smyth has been out for a few drinkies too many with Herr Flick.

Its amazing that a junior minister is caught sending letters asking for a pervert kiddy fiddler to be freed*, that story is buried inside the FF Gazette and all they can do is fabricate a non story like this.

(*Oh sorry someone on his staff sent it in error and the files from that period we deleted in a "maintenance error" :rolleyes:)

Time Magazine

Hmm, could this be a ploy?

Doubts over Labour => increased votes/transfers to the "real" opposition party Fine Gael (by real I mean there's no way they'll be in with FF) => greater chance of a FG/Labour govt => no chance of greater anger at Labour for entering with FF?

Where's my tin-foil hat?

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

Pat Rabitte will never lead his party into coalition with Fianna Fail.

And why does he find it so hard to say the words then?

Múinteoir

partholon wrote:

i cant help thinking rabbitte would be better off using the greens tactic in regards to this issue.

It didn't work in 2002 so why would that tactic work any better now? Especially when FG is much more resurgent now than it was in 2002.

ballooba

Ibid wrote:

Hmm, could this be a ploy?

Don't let anyone kid you into thinking The Independent Newspaper Group is anything other than anti-rainbow. They ran a famous editorial in June 1997 outlining their position entitled "It's Payback Time".

One might suggest that, as FG had them and the Times in their pockets for 60 years, no harm to see it go around every now and again...

Time Magazine

ballooba wrote:

Don't let anyone kid you into thinking The Independent Newspaper Group is anything other than anti-rainbow. They ran a famous editorial in June 1997 outlining their position entitled "It's Payback Time".

I know, but the whole Howlin thing.

gandalf

Deleted User wrote:

One might suggest that, as FG had them and the Times in their pockets for 60 years, no harm to see it go around every now and again...

Ah so you admit the Indo story is pure bull**** then

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

One might suggest that, as FG had them and the Times in their pockets for 60 years, no harm to see it go around every now and again...

Some might agree that the The Irish Times is a little less one sided and a little more reliable in their reporting.

Some might say The Indo is pretty much a tabloid, others might say that it just is. That they're running with a compact edition only serves to reinforce this idea.

Ibid wrote:

I know, but the whole Howlin thing.

I'm not sure which Howlin thing you are referring to.

Deleted User wrote:

And why does he find it so hard to say the words then?

He has been quite clear on this. Why would he open himself up to a debate on what a potential successor as leader of the party would do.

partholon wrote:

one other question though, how come no ones asking the question will enda go into power with SF if the figures add up. he's flatly denied it but like pat i wouldnt be surprised if he did. after all its not a million mile away from them going into power with democrat left all those years ago:D

For one thing, Sinn Fein could never go into power with Fine Gael because Fine Gael are historically the Treaty party. This is also why you won't be seeing a 32 county Fine Gael anytime soon.

Sleepy wrote:

Are politicians in this country interested in issues or simply being in power?

You can't exactly have much influence on or impact on issues unless you have power.

KerranJast

ballooba wrote:

For one thing, Sinn Fein could never go into power with Fine Gael because Fine Gael are historically the Treaty party. This is also why you won't be seeing a 32 county Fine Gael anytime soon.

Plus the fact that a lot of Fine Gael supporters are from Garda/Defense Forces backgrounds and, rightly IMO, despise SF over their attempts to get Jerry McCabes killers out early.

I'd say there could very well be a hung Dail out of all this. It's a hell of a look more likely that FF/PDs getting back as is or FG/Labour/Greens getting enough numbers. I'd be expecting Bertie to deal with anyone including SF and/or a ragtag bunch of Independents to try and stay in power.

ballooba

As was said on Questions and Answers (link), Fianna Fail will have no option but to consider a deal with Sinn Fein to stay in power. The PDs won't have the(/any?) seats and no one else will get into bed with them.


Even if PDs maintained their current numbers, which they won't, it would not be enough to support an even slightly dented Fianna Fail.

LostinBlanch

So a vote for the PDs is a vote for FF and SF? I'd like to see herr flick square that circle.

ballooba

LostinBlanch wrote:

So a vote for the PDs is a vote for FF and SF? I'd like to see herr flick square that circle.

PDs will not be in government after the GE. They are irrelevant.

I'm not sure if SF people would have much time for FF?

The_Minister

LostinBlanch wrote:

So a vote for the PDs is a vote for FF and SF? I'd like to see herr flick square that circle.

Mary Harney said that the PDs would not go into government with FF if they were supported by SF. I really doubt that McDowell has changed that position.

oscarBravo

ballooba wrote:

...IMS is famously unreliable.

I just spotted this. Got anything to back it up?

Dontico

ballooba wrote:

For one thing, Sinn Fein could never go into power with Fine Gael because Fine Gael are historically the Treaty party. This is also why you won't be seeing a 32 county Fine Gael anytime soon.

yeah cause FG are totally against the idea of united ireland. i party which uses micheal collins as a mascot. :rolleyes:

should i point that sinn fein(assuming one thinks they are connected to the IRA) has been pushing us away a united ireland, ever since they went against the treaty?

i would imagine FG would be more annoyed about sinn fein having members of gael murdered in the past.

LostinBlanch

ballooba wrote:

PDs will not be in government after the GE. They are irrelevant.

Yeah, well it was a tongue in cheek quote! But the PDs remind me of someone Pat Kennys age in Slappers about 20 minutes before it closes and looking desperately for anyone that'll have them. Sees that no one will and then says that's ok because they wouldn't go near them anyway.

EDIT I can't lay claim to that analogy, maybe it was Miriam Lord, but it seems to fit them quite well.

ballooba

Dontico wrote:

yeah cause FG are totally against the idea of united ireland. i party which uses micheal collins as a mascot. :rolleyes:

You needn't roll your eyes at me buddy. You have just shown your complete ignorance of irish politics and history. Michael Collins signed The Treaty which led to the partitioning of the island.

Cringeful stuff.

InFront

Sir Toady is onto a promise of some kind from Bertie or maybe Sam Smyth has been out for a few drinkies too many with Herr Flick.
.

Agreed. Thankfully, a lot of people seem to be able to see through the Independent's desire to discredit the Alternative Government. The different messages eminating from the Independent and the more reliable I.T. is telling.

But even for those who don't agree that the Independent is on a mission, no publicity is bad publicity, and I'm sure Labour are simply delighted with that newspaper keeping them in the headlines recently.

McSandwich

ballooba wrote:

You needn't roll your eyes at me buddy. You have just shown your complete ignorance of irish politics and history. Michael Collins signed The Treaty which led to the partitioning of the island.

Cringeful stuff.

You present a very narrow and uninformed view of politics at the time. True he signed the Treaty, but he didn't enviage the partition as a permanent divide - more a means to an end. If he wasn't assassinated who knows what would have happened next.

McSandwich

ballooba wrote:

For one thing, Sinn Fein could never go into power with Fine Gael because Fine Gael are historically the Treaty party. This is also why you won't be seeing a 32 county Fine Gael anytime soon.

Sinn Fein's links with the IRA would surely, on constitutional grounds, prevent them from forming a government with ANY party.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

Some might agree that the The Irish Times is a little less one sided and a little more reliable in their reporting.

Some might say The Indo is pretty much a tabloid, others might say that it just is. That they're running with a compact edition only serves to reinforce this idea.

Don't read the Times and agree that if the Indo gets a story right it is more by accident then design.

But I see even now the Examiner (and I'd like to see anyone accuse the Crosby's of being led by FF!!) probing the same story in the same way and pointing out that Rabbitte's answers have been confusing and inadequate. He was clear a while back on Questions and Answers, since then he has been very far from clear on the matter and refuses to rule out Coalition with FF with him in charge. The nadir was his interview with Kenny where he couldn't give a yes or no to repeated questions.

ballooba wrote:

He has been quite clear on this. Why would he open himself up to a debate on what a potential successor as leader of the party would do.

He has already opened up the whole debate, it won't go away because of his failure to give a striaght answer. If he simply said he would not lead Labour into Coalition with FF matters would be a lot clearer, it was what he was saying before recent polls. Now he is changing to 'it is not envisaged, circumstances won't allow' stuff.

ghostdancer

ballooba wrote:

I'm not sure if SF people would have much time for FF?

any of them that i've spoken with most certainly don't.

for all the talk of FF trying to stay in power and trying to make deals with this party and that party, I can't see SF going into coalition with FF at all, nor FF wanting that. it's too close to recent history for it, maybe the next time the GE comes around it would be more plausible, but most people are still of the "reds under the bed" mentality with SF. most of the FF members would kick up a fuss,most FF and SF voters would be appalled, and I can't see Caoimhin O Caolaoin sitting there beside the man he's ridiculed in the Dail so often, the 2 of them best buddies....
there's far too much to lose for both of them.

ballooba

McSandwich wrote:

You present a very narrow and uninformed view of politics at the time.

I was attempting above to convey how Sinn Fein supporters would see the situation. Dontico seems to disagree with that point of view. The fact of the matter is that Michael Collins was assassinated and he never did have a chance to follow through. We will never know what he may or may not have achieved.

I wouldn't say I have an in depth understanding of politics at that time, then again I wouldn't say I am uninformed. As a member of Fine Gael I do believe that Michael Collins got the best deal he could at the time.

The same could be said of Sinn Fein at the moment. They have had to compromise their postion a lot to make their goals achievable. Dissidents don't like the way Sinn Fein is going about things, but thankfully unlike the civil war they are a tiny minority.

The point of the matter is that Sinn Fein would have nothing to do with Fine Gael. Likewise, Fine Gael would have nothing to do with Sinn Fein. It has been suggested of late that Fianna Fail should become a 32 county party, Fianna Fail have said the time is not right. The time for Fine Gael to become a 32 county party is a long long way off. The nordies wouldn't have us.

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

He has already opened up the whole debate, it won't go away because of his failure to give a striaght answer. If he simply said he would not lead Labour into Coalition with FF matters would be a lot clearer, it was what he was saying before recent polls. Now he is changing to 'it is not envisaged, circumstances won't allow' stuff.

The Questions and Answers debate was not more than a fortnight ago. I disagre that he is saying 'circumstances won't allow' he knows that Labours credibility will be forever tarnished if they do a u-turn on this. He could never lead the party into such an agreement. He would have to step down. Plus, as he said he has support of 80% of the party. Howlin would be in the 20% that are open to a deal with FF. I don't believe that Howlin could convince 30% of the party to change their views.

McSandwich

ballooba wrote:

I was attempting above to convey how Sinn Fein supporters would see the situation.

Makes sense now! It was late when I started reading this thread, I should've have read more before jumping in...

ballooba

ghostdancer wrote:

most of the FF members would kick up a fuss,

With the level of integrity FF voters seem to expect from their elected representatives I cannot imagine them having much of a problem with SF.

ghostdancer wrote:

there's far too much to lose for both of them.

Some would argue FF have too much to lose not to try and woo SF. They have far too much to lose with their Ministerial Cars, Offices, Government Jets, Loans, Gifts and even their salaries. Bertie might even have to learn to drive again. :eek:

ballooba

oscarBravo wrote:

I just spotted this. Got anything to back it up?

I can't really provide evidence as such. Don't have time to go back through the polls I'm afraid.

IMS is said to typically underestimate FG support by up to 8% and overestimate FF support by up to 3% due to the methodology used.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

With the level of integrity FF voters seem to expect from their elected representatives I cannot imagine them having much of a problem with SF.

On the other hand even FF would be surprised if the party leader ran around for a week refusing to answer in a 'yes' or 'no' manner a simple question as to whether he would form a Goverment with a certain party. Thre would be pages of hysteria here about him avoiding an issue...

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

On the other hand even FF would be surprised if the party leader ran around for a week refusing to answer in a 'yes' or 'no' manner a simple question as to whether he would form a Goverment with a certain party. Thre would be pages of hysteria here about him avoiding an issue...

The difference is Bertie doesn't have to worry about losing credibility. He doesn't have any to lose.

I'm satisfied with Pat Rabitte's answers to the questions. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would be too.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

The difference is Bertie doesn't have to worry about losing credibility. He doesn't have any to lose.

The difference is that Bertie is Taoiseach and cannot simply think about election issues only. Rabbitte has no such considerations, and if he doesn't get the finger out may not have such concerns after the next election either unless he thinks about FF. He only has to think about an election, make the right soundbites, and figure out a way to get his party out of the 10% rut. So far he is failing miserably. I appreciate he may be popular within that 10% of voters, but indecision and evasion will hardly reach out to the masses...

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

He only has to think about an election, make the right soundbites, and figure out a way to get his party out of the 10% rut.

The reason he is in that 10% rut is because Labour made the mistake of going into government with Fianna Fail in 1992. They polled 19% of first preference that year. Ever since then they have been around 10%. Only by sticking to their guns this time round will they ever get out of 'the 10% rut'.

Chakar

ballooba wrote:

Bertie might even have to learn to drive again. :eek

No he won't when he leaves office as Taoiseach in 2012 he will have a State car with a Garda driver for the rest of his life.

But I expect that Pat Rabbitte will want to go into government with FG and the Greens however when the votes are counted and they are asked by Fianna Fail to go in government they will.

They will then ditch FG and go with Fianna Fail.Politicians don't want to be in Opposition especially Rabbitte he's now fifty eight and if he doesn't get into government this year he never will.

ballooba

So you are saying

Chakar wrote:

No he won't when he leaves office as Taoiseach in 2012 he will have a State car with a Garda driver for the rest of his life.

FF will still be in government after the G.E.

Chakar wrote:

But I expect that Pat Rabbitte will want to go into government with FG and the Greens however when the votes are counted and they are asked by Fianna Fail to go in government they will.

The rainbow won't have the numbers to form a government.

Chakar wrote:

They will then ditch FG and go with Fianna Fail.Politicians don't want to be in Opposition especially Rabbitte he's now fifty eight and if he doesn't get into government this year he never will.

Labour will go with FF.

Have you anything of substance to add or are you just looking for a pantomine style "Yes, they will"/"Oh no they won't" style discussion?

About the only interesting/new thing you said above is that Bertie will have a state car when he retires. You are quite right, I forgot that.

Also, Pat Rabbitte already has been in government. He was junior minister 1994-1997.

Dontico

ballooba wrote:

You needn't roll your eyes at me buddy. You have just shown your complete ignorance of irish politics and history. Michael Collins signed The Treaty which led to the partitioning of the island.

Cringeful stuff.

you have just shown your complete ignorance of irish politics and history. signing of the Treaty would have been more likily to bring the 32 together, but the civil war/fine fail.

fine gael is officially a united ireland party. but thats meaningless. its up northren ireland not the rep..