Bit a Math

RoadSweeper

Probally could work this out, but been studying all day and me head is fried.

Okay, this happened me and was just wondering the odds on it.

You have say 77, flop

J74, (2 Diamonds)

4 way all in.

Naturally i call (dont fold sets )

Think there was 2 flush draws and on AJ or something.

(Now none of that was really relevant)

I was ahead, and stayed there, by the J pairing the board. I was wondering what the odds are of the board pairing after the flop, and also the odds you hit 4 of a kind incl?

RoadSweeper

And what what you do here?

Jan 12 17:45:08] : Hand Start.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 1 : elliam has $11,960
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 3 : Pot Odds ? has $2,493.34
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 4 : Hero has $3,915
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 5 : Bravo2272 has $5,110
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 6 : ginandmilk has $10,025
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 7 : jamiedobson has $770
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 8 : sammieX666 has $4,020
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 9 : Limmer has $3,055
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : jamiedobson is the dealer.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Limmer posted small blind.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : elliam posted big blind.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Game [33] started with 8 players.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Jan 12 17:45:08] : Seat 4 : Hero has 6s 6h
[Jan 12 17:45:11] : Pot Odds ? folded.
[Jan 12 17:44:57] : Hero called 200
[Jan 12 17:45:00] : Bravo2272 folded.
[Jan 12 17:45:02] : ginandmilk called 200
[Jan 12 17:45:02] : jamiedobson folded.
[Jan 12 17:45:07] : Stakes: 100/200 Current level: 4 Level up in: 2 min. Break in: 25 min. Players : 202
[Jan 12 17:45:11] : Limmer called 100
[Jan 12 17:45:13] : elliam checked.
[Jan 12 17:45:13] : Dealing flop.
[Jan 12 17:45:13] : Board cards [6c Kc 2c]
[Jan 12 17:45:23] : Limmer checked.
[Jan 12 17:45:24] : elliam checked.
[Jan 12 17:45:56] : Stakes: 100/200 Current level: 4 Level up in: 1 min. Break in: 25 min. Players : 202
[Jan 12 17:45:59] : Hero bet 800
[Jan 12 17:46:01] : ginandmilk called 800 and raised 9,025 and is All-in
[Jan 12 17:46:04] : Limmer folded.
[Jan 12 17:46:04] : elliam folded.

shoutman

id call in the hand history, dont fold set.s

Ste05

shoutman wrote:

id call in the hand history, dont fold set.s

.

cardshark202

In the HH you posted: callcallcallcallcallcallcall

Mellor

As for the first question.

A flopped set will improve to a house or better about 33% of the time.

It will make quads a shade over 4% of the time

RoadSweeper

ty Mellor.

If the HH i posted was in a tournamrnt early stages would decision be the same.

shoutman

Tls Tls Tls

RoadSweeper

come again?

shoutman

sorry, Tournement Life Syndrome, theres a big thread on it in the best threads sticky,

basically many people believe that having your tournement life as a part of your thinking when making a decision is just the wrong thing to do.
+ev as a lot of times people will do this on the draw or with tptk protecting against flushs and all sorts of crap.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055025230

phantom_lord

bah, ship it!

BobSloane

RoadSweeper wrote:

I was ahead, and stayed there, by the J pairing the board. I was wondering what the odds are of the board pairing after the flop, and also the odds you hit 4 of a kind incl?

The handiest way i find when the clock is ticking is to look at as you have 7 outs on the turn and will have 10 on the river. This is the same as having 17 outs on the river which using the 2% rule gives you 34% or around 2-1.

There is a big difference between a set and having 2 pair on the flop as you have only 4 outs on the turn and 4 more on the river which is only 16% or around 5-1.