Housing Bubble Bursting

whizzbang

Tea drinker wrote:

Andrews Lane Theatre sold to property developers... absolutely rotten.
I know the place needed renovation, but it might be another example of cashing in while the going is perceived to be good.
I have noticed it's getting harder and harder to even get petrol around town, what with shell pocketing from it's pullout of the market.
70 mill for the little area in Donnybrook with the shell station, tyre place, car wash etc. Everyone seems to be trying to sell now.... but it still seems the land is getting the good prices. Obviously not a glut of the finished product on the market yet.

every couple of weeks I get an email saying a garage should be removed from my web site http://www.pumps.ie/ as it has closed, sooner or later only Tesco will be selling the stuff!

Diatom

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

I bet you all walk around with those banners you see in black and white movies, "the end of the world is nigh"

Isn't it true that the world is usually ending in those movies?

dochasach

Tea drinker wrote:

Andrews Lane Theatre sold to property developers... absolutely rotten.

Sigh. I will miss this theatre too. I hope Lane productions uses the money wisely because the people are what made this an awesome theatre. I'd go to see one of their productions in a tent or in a grassy field if I could.

...I have noticed it's getting harder and harder to even get petrol around town, what with shell pocketing from it's pullout of the market.
70 mill for the little area in Donnybrook with the shell station, tyre place, car wash etc...

Just wait. I have friends abroad who sent their thanks to God when they finally found someone to take a petrol station off their hands. I guess one side effect of Ireland's ineffective environmental laws is that you can still get some sucker to pay 70 Million for a spec of toxic waste contaminated land.

Add Shell and Lane to the list of savvy organizations and individuals who are using the "take the cash and run" strategy of property management.

Shell
AIB
Bank of Ireland
Barclays
Lane Productions

Who am I missing?

whizzbang

Well here is a fairly serious price drop!

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1776764&issue_id=15257

€10 million! from €30mill down to €20 mill!

Someone thinks its time to cut and run.

miju

while it's a ridiculous price , given the fact his company has gone belly up i'd say he's just trying to cash in on assests to ensure he's best protected as possible

whizzbang

to be fair it is not clear if he was still involved with the company when it went under.

HashSlinging

Seen someone post a message about the US market and a forcast by HSBC US Mortgage Services.

HSBC Mortgage Services in the US have said there forcast of 8.8 billion dollors for bad debt due to defaults will be higher by some 20%. Mainly in relation to mortages taken out in 05 - 06.

Now put the kettle on.

SimpleSam06

Sponge Bob wrote:

Roche is either being delusional or else (possibly) has access to post census data indicating that the population growth is indeed of that order , almost 200,000 a year . And of course they are all coming to build houses Dick , eh !!!

He's probably making the same mistake a lot of people are making and confusing migrant workers with immigrant workers. One is here to stay and make a new life, one is here to earn enough money to go home and live a good life.

Sponge Bob

But the migrant worker does not live 2.8 to a house, they are here to save money and fairly pack the houses they do occupy.

I would estimate that migrants (not immigrants) only need half the housing units that the rest of us do. In other words they will be 5.6 persons to the house not 2.8 persons.

Roche knows this too, he would have access to preliminary Census data.

SimpleSam06

Sponge Bob wrote:

But the migrant worker does not live 2.8 to a house, they are here to save money and fairly pack the houses they do occupy.

I would estimate that migrants (not immigrants) only need half the housing units that the rest of us do. In other words they will be 5.6 persons to the house not 2.8 persons.

Roche knows this too, he would have access to preliminary Census data.

Indeed, which is why I was saying he was confused between the two. Most of what we call immigrants in Ireland today are in fact migrants.

Sponge Bob

As Dick has an election to fund between now and the Galway Races in July he does need to ensure that the supply of brown envelopes from the builders is not, shall we say, UNDULY CONSTRAINED in the interim .

Therefore he told the purveyors of brown envelopes what they wanted to hear.

Other than that its completely arse. the only area in Ireland that is not already grossly oversupplied with a generations worth of demand lying idle already is within 30km of O Connel bridge.

As for places like Cavan/Longford/Roscommon/Leitrim/South Sligo/East Mayo ...I cannot see another house being built there in my lifetime once the bubble has clearly burst. Such is the existing oversupply.

Raskolnikov

Sponge Bob wrote:

But the migrant worker does not live 2.8 to a house, they are here to save money and fairly pack the houses they do occupy.

I would estimate that migrants (not immigrants) only need half the housing units that the rest of us do. In other words they will be 5.6 persons to the house not 2.8 persons.

Roche knows this too, he would have access to preliminary Census data.

Take a look for twin room house shares on daft.ie. There are a countless number of foreigners looking for other people to share rooms. The cheapest end of this market is predominantly populated with foreigners. You'll see adverts in a multitude of different languages from inumerable foreign names, all bonded by their desire to get the cheapest possible rent. Like you said, the object is to save their cash here to use it for property back in their native country.

miju

has anyone else been noticing an increasing rash of posts [url=http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn[discussion_id]=90511] such as this one[/url] appearing on the likes of AAM and especially the Daft.ie forums from pressured sellers obviously beginning to get very , very worried / panicked

whizzbang

yep, the last few weeks have seen more and more posts like this. The interesting thing is there doesn't seem to be many property bulls chipping in to encourage them. Has sentiment turned?

DonJose

whizzbang wrote:

Well here is a fairly serious price drop!

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1776764&issue_id=15257

€10 million! from €30mill down to €20 mill!

Someone thinks its time to cut and run.

If anybody here is interested in purchasing this "bargain" you can view the listing below

http://www.sherryfitz.ie/sf2003.exe?pageref=res_property&propid=SAP00259&pagemode=res

Sponge Bob

miju wrote:

has anyone else been noticing an increasing rash of posts from pressured sellers obviously beginning to get very , very worried / panicked

Do you mean this one with the panicked mortgage broker who cannot sell mortgages thrown in the mix ???

miju

aye that would be one of the ones i was talking about alright , the funny thing about daft is that there seems to be a fair few posters on it trying to rubbish anyone with a bearish view

course on further investigation you can see that these are usually in the middle of trying to sell their own property.....the user hopeful being a prime example

Sponge Bob

The guy has a point, he appears to lag reductions in the market a bit and has not presented the place though, eg had he cut €20k the first time and not €10k he may have gotten some interest.

of course many of the estate agents have no notion how to sell in a slow market either, they have not had to haggle in years.

miju

more bad news on the job front , i know a few muted it here but Dell have now announced plans for a major restructuring of their company to cut out needless beaurocracy

off topic for a second , does anyone care to speculate what will happen to the 300 Bupa jobs now the gubberment have closed the loophole preventing Quinn Direct or Vivas from changing their names and being exempt from risk equalisation

TCollins

miju wrote:

aye that would be one of the ones i was talking about alright , the funny thing about daft is that there seems to be a fair few posters on it trying to rubbish anyone with a bearish view

course on further investigation you can see that these are usually in the middle of trying to sell their own property.....the user hopeful being a prime example

Would they be like the people who keep mentioning job losses but fail to ever mention any news of job creation - How many new jobs was that that were announced by VMware today? - Hush now dont want to spoil any bad news with good news in here

Zambia

TCollins wrote:

Would they be like the people who keep mentioning job losses but fail to ever mention any news of job creation - How many new jobs was that that were announced by VMware today? - Hush now dont want to spoil any bad news with good news in here

May help if you linked it

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0222/jobs1.html

369 Technical positions is good news

But in the same news run Housing costs are being blamed for the biggest rise in inflation in years

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0222/INFLATION.html

Meaning loads of people are feeling the pinch at overstretching

miju

TCollins wrote:

Would they be like the people who keep mentioning job losses but fail to ever mention any news of job creation - How many new jobs was that that were announced by VMware today? - Hush now dont want to spoil any bad news with good news in here

well actually i was going to get to that as id only read the digital ireland section of the indo at the time of the post, nut thats beside the point.

also, just heard on newstalk sean quinn is to stay in the health insuracne market despite the loopghole closing , good news

Tea drinker

Zambia232 wrote:

But in the same news run Housing costs are being blamed for the biggest rise in inflation in years

Sorry Zambia, no disrespect to you, just the newshounds.... but how the f*ck is this news? We have been saying for years the same shaggin thing!

1. Every employer has an employee who has to pay a fat mortgage.
This does not help the employer, or the employee, it makes Ireland expensive.

2. The office rents are now among the highest in the world.
This surely does not help the employer? (or the employee whose wages may be subsidising the building, or the customer of the company, or the customers customer...) I know of a multinational that has NOT been in the news is getting restless because of building costs. This would be one of the body blows to the economy mooted before.

3. How the heck did we end up here? The whole economy of the nation is being damaged to allow an elite few make a killing.

I'm angry again..... off for a cuppa.

Supercell

Interesting post here from an estate agent on daft ..
I’m sorry to say that the current decline in prices is starting to snowball.

He also recommends dropping houses under 500K by 10%
Thats dropping by 10% plus 5% inflation..thats prices back at end of 2005 levels already.

http://www.radioireland.ie/lastword/2222007-17.wmv

15 minutes in.

Matt Cooper fights the good fight

miju

its good to hear the radio media starting to grill the VI's properly rather than the half assed efforts that have previously gone under the charade of being un-biased.

yer man from the IHBA is hilarious , in one sentence he says that supply has now equalled demand and with the next breath says we need to build 90,000 houses a year to keep up

KingKenny7

That dude from the IHBA was panicing. He didnt know if he was coming or going. Yor right, it was one min were level with supply and then we need more.
Fair play to the builder who was on, he was speaking the truth. At the end of the day, houses could fall upto 50% and the builders would still make money. My mates house went up 33% in a year.

what goes up that quick, must come down......

Zambia

KingKenny7 wrote:

That dude from the IHBA was panicing. He didnt know if he was coming or going. Yor right, it was one min were level with supply and then we need more.
Fair play to the builder who was on, he was speaking the truth. At the end of the day, houses could fall upto 50% and the builders would still make money. My mates house went up 33% in a year.

what goes up that quick, must come down......

Well your man Wallace just does not give a f**k. He is a builder for a builder sake still drives working Jeep not an X-5. Still loaded but he does nopt strike me as someone who needs more than enough for a pint on the weekend

Calina

You mean he calls a spade a spade instead of this wishy washy spin-doctoring lark?

alienhead

Longfield wrote:

Interesting post here from an estate agent on daft ..
I’m sorry to say that the current decline in prices is starting to snowball.

He also recommends dropping houses under 500K by 10%
Thats dropping by 10% plus 5% inflation..thats prices back at end of 2005 levels already.

well i hope not, bought 2 years ago, and i'd hate for my house to fall to the price i payed then.

personally, i don't really see them falling, but i can't see them rising much more, and will probably just rise in line with inflation.

if i was a first time buyer now, i'd be pi55ed off i didn't buy 2/3/5 years ago, but hey, at least they're not rising thousands month by month.