Housing Bubble Bursting

Planning policy recently has been to try and restrict one-off rural housing because they are considered "inefficient" in resources, i.e. occupiers are relient on cars, provision of services of all kinds is more expensive etc. An ideal Green policy is for all to live in medium/high density housing near bus/tram routes.

As we can all see, the policy was a great success NOT! we have ended up with high-density shoeboxes in the middle of nowhere.

I do agree that one-off houses should be sensible in size & design.

BendiBus

Deleted User wrote: »

Planning policy recently has been to try and restrict one-off rural housing because they are considered "inefficient" in resources, i.e. occupiers are relient on cars, provision of services of all kinds is more expensive etc. An ideal Green policy is for all to live in medium/high density housing near bus/tram routes.

As we can all see, the policy was a great success NOT! we have ended up with high-density shoeboxes in the middle of nowhere.

I do agree that one-off houses should be sensible in size & design.

One off housing should only be granted permission if the applicant waives all rights to services provided under a universal service obligation, e.g. telephone, mains electricity etc.

Caoimhín

BendiBus wrote: »

One off housing should only be granted permission if the applicant waives all rights to services provided under a universal service obligation, e.g. telephone, mains electricity etc.

What? why? You have to pay to be connected to the ESB and phone network, That makes no sense.

flyfishen

miju wrote: »

i'm sure they do as they more than anyone else will realise that the longer this asset bubble continues the more and more long term damage it does to this country



a bit over-dependnt??????? more like completely and utterly dependent on construction to mask this economys figures




out of curiosity what percentage of price drop would you consider a crash?



most "doom-mongers" are not dying for a crash so they can buy i think you'll find alot of them are actually thinking of the economys health as a whole and they don't want / wish for a crash but at this stage it is looking increasingly unavoidable , also those of 100% mortgages are not the only ones badly exposed there's the "investors" , retirement purposes as well as those members of the laughable brigade of "top-up mortgages" who will all be royally fooked as well



your obviously choosing what pallatable to read and whats not , as regards hard figures there's plenty including the permanent tsb / esri index just release , recent daft report and of course the most current site that can be used as a indicator of anecdotal current property prices http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/

then of course there's the fact that property prices (at the very best) is expected to grow by 5% and general inflation (at the least) will be hitting 6% next year so without interest rate hikes , over supply , no more panic buying , investors staying out of the market , capital appreciation finished , end of a fair few property tax incentives property prices WILL fall by 1% at the very , very least in real terms , those hard enough facts for you?

by the by the below quote clearly indicates the next rise as early as feb next year so after that is anyones guess , however, the ECB wont care about ireland in the grand scheme of stability in the eurozone and you can bank on that



ps: heres some late night reading from the central bank that was released this month , is 30 pages long so brew up a cuppa first

Any input into our situation will be welcome ..5 years ago I came to the states to get qualified in an Animal medical science ...we sold our Kerry house and purchased a house in the USA we own it free and clear ...now I am to return to my EU position back in Southern Ireland ..and we cant sell our house here in the USA..lookers we have want the property but we are caught in the no mortgage money trap ...(houses under $250 forcloser glut)we nhave even reduced the price by 30% to get home.
To overcome this financial dilema the USA has started property swap sites that allow people to move to work or retire or just move near famillies, there are at least fifty of these sites .....and they are working .....
We have tried contacting sell by owner lists in Ireland and when they are stating "moving Overseas" we ask them if they want to swap ...so far to late we have missed so far three people who have moved back to USA from Ireland due to variouse reasons ...all within three miles of us ...but even though we are advertising to swap we get nothing ..Irish property agents tell us they dont do such a thing ..... agents in the usa however are swapping to get over the financial dry up.
I will lose my position if I dont get done with this anybody got any ideas??

SimpleSam06

flyfishen wrote: »

I will lose my position if I dont get done with this anybody got any ideas??

You might start a new thread in the main forum. How does house swapping work, is there any money involved?

flyfishen

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

You might start a new thread in the main forum. How does house swapping work, is there any money involved?

No they swap for equal value ...if you dont own the property outright then you are out of the picture .....on one page two hundred houses have been swaped and closed in the last month ....its the only way to beat the crises if you have to move ....I am not sure if I can post a url here ..but I will try
go to ... http://www.ree.com this mostly agents that have latched on ...or try
http://www.besthouseswap.com you will see what is going on ....

blast05

One off housing should only be granted permission if the applicant waives all rights to services provided under a universal service obligation, e.g. telephone, mains electricity etc.

One off housing has to pay a €1700 connection fee to the ESB network. In my case, it was 2 men and a machine for about 2 hours work. I'm sure the ESB wished there were more 1 off houses given the profit margins here :mad:

blast05

blast05 wrote: »

One off housing has to pay a €1700 connection fee to the ESB network. In my case, it was 2 men and a machine for about 2 hours work. I'm sure the ESB wished there were more 1 off houses given the profit margins here :mad:

My neighbour who built just before us, hte ESB needed to install 1km of 25kv line a transformer & 500m of LV line to reach the house, we then just got a drop from the last pole.

Swings and roundabouts.

BendiBus

Deleted User wrote: »

Swings and roundabouts.

And that's the exact problem with USO. You can build in the middle of nowhere and still pay no more than anyone else.

If people had to pay the true cost of provisioning, or do without, they might think again about where to live. But crucially they still have the choice of where to live.

BendiBus

BendiBus wrote: »

And that's the exact problem with USO. You can build in the middle of nowhere and still pay no more than anyone else.
.

wrong! the ESB has distance limits for the standard charge 2km, I think, then the builder has to pay the FULL cost

BendiBus wrote: »

If people had to pay the true cost of provisioning, or do without, they might think again about where to live. But crucially they still have the choice of where to live .

Provisioning is just one of the costs, the main (ongoing) cost of rural living is transport in all forms, personal, delivery of goods & services etc.

blast05

If people had to pay the true cost of provisioning

In Meath and Wicklow among others, the typical charge by the council for all these services as a condition of planning is up on 20K (and another 5-10K on a mandatory sewage treatment sysetm regardles of how good the percolation is in your garden) even if the council don't have to spend a cent or if all the ESB have to do is run a line quickly from a nearby pole.
Down in Mayo a few yearss ago, i didn't have to pay a cent !

Building low density rural housing is already loaded with extra costs, there's no need to add any more.

Even with these costs, there are still many who "choose" (hobsons choice) to live in rural areas, many simply because they couldn't afford to live in the city, with falling prices that will change.
No one really wants to live in a suburban estate in the middle of nowhere, these houses are likely to be abandoned in the future.

Those who choose one-off houses will continue to build and live in them for the same reasons as before, family land, like the rural lifestyle, nice views etc.

Caoimhín

Deleted User wrote: »

My neighbour who built just before us, hte ESB needed to install 1km of 25kv line a transformer & 500m of LV line to reach the house, we then just got a drop from the last pole.

Where did ye build, the middle of a bog in the middle of nowhere?

We built at the edge of an established townland, but it was a step too far for the existing electrical infrastructure that started at the other end ov the community, so they had to tee off the main feeder line at the other end!

BendiBus

Deleted User wrote: »

wrong! the ESB has distance limits for the standard charge 2km, I think, then the builder has to pay the FULL cost

Fair enough. Didn't know that.

thewing

Dunno if anyone say this in the SINDO(I didn't buy it is my only defence) but I thought i'd post it - claims another bubble on the way - hilarious stuff!! Shur jobs are going to the wall left right and centre, but we'll still be snapping up those houses!!


Middle-class fuming as life savings vanish
Homeowners are the only people who are likely to weather the recession storm, writes Daniel McConnell




By Daniel McConnell

Sunday November 23 2008

Things are bad, we all know that. Share prices crashing, pension values have been obliterated and many people's savings have either been wiped away or severely damaged by the recent international financial crisis.

Those who have their life savings tied up in bank shares are no doubt very angry at the minute, as they have seen their hard-earned savings decimated in recent months. The slump of Bank of Ireland shares to just 83 cent during the week, and the similar collapse in Anglo Irish shares, sent shock waves through the middle classes, who are devastated to see how little their money is now worth.

They are angry because they sunk thousands of their savings into shares, thinking no matter what, it would be as "safe as houses". How wrong they were. People who invested their money two years ago have seen their investment crumble. It is now only worth about 7 per cent of what it was when they invested and they are angry.

For an example of how bad things have gone, someone who bought up shares in Bank of Ireland exactly two years ago would have paid about €16.50 a share. Today, that share price is less than €1.20, so the €100,000 they invested is now worth under €7,500. Bank employees, teachers, doctors, lawyers have all had their little bundle of savings wiped out.

Even worse, most of the same people in the private sector have seen their pensions hammered by the stock markets in recent months, too.

According to Michael Madden, of Mercer, an average Defined Contribution Fund, which is based on a range of different stocks and commodities, has seen its value drop by about one-third in the past two years, with things getting worse all the time.

Anyone approaching retirement now is facing the awful prospect that they will have substantially less money when they finish work than had they left 12 months ago. This has been an awful year for the value of pensions, and while the I'm-all-right-Jack brigade in the public sector are cosseted away from all of this, those of us in the private sector have been shafted hard.

Given how bad things have been on the stock markets and how badly pensions have suffered, while those who bought houses in recent times are now doubt raging that the values have dropped, the extent of that drop is a lot less than if they had spent their money on shares or investing in their pension.

In short, property has still been the best place to put your money. Although prices have fallen by between 10-15 per cent on average, and may still fall more, they have not been decimated like stock prices or pension values and are likely to increase again substantially within 12 months.

I know it is little consolation to those who bought at the height of the massively inflated market and who are in negative equity now on their pokey two-bed apartment in Leixlip, but, in truth, their choice to buy a property in light of everything else was a smart move.

And here is why.

The number of houses being built has plummeted, the slump in the housing market triggered our recession. It will fall from over 90,000 in 2006 to less than 20,000 next year. Nothing new is getting built, which means that in about six months' time the country will be facing a housing shortage once again, and when that happens, and the banks loosen their reins again, Ireland will experience another property bubble.

Tom Parlon, of the Construction Industry Federation, has warned that the supply in the market is set to run out within nine months and with nothing new being built we are likely to be back where we were two years ago. The net effect of this is that those who bought at the height of the market and are, at present, paying mortgages on homes that are worth less than when they bought them, will eventually begin to benefit from that shortage in supply.

While every sector is hurting right now, those who bought property must take some consolation that their losses are not as bad as people who put their money into other things, and that the value of their investment is likely to rise substantially in the coming months. Yes, there may be short-term pain, but if you invested in property you will be all right in the end.

- Daniel McConnell

Is this guy for real?Another bubble straight after a bubble?

spockety

thewing wrote: »

Is this guy for real?Another bubble straight after a bubble?

Well the thing to remember is that Ireland is different to other countries.

:rolleyes:

asdasd

and are likely to increase again substantially within 12 months.

Absolutely they will. That always happens in recessionary times. Property just zooms up. Look at the US which came into this a year before us. Total recovery by now.

In more sane news Savillis predicts for the UK that

* The housing market recovery, when it comes, will be led by London and the South-East, where by 2012 values will have recovered to those pre-slump.
* Market to bottom out when costs of renting and buying realign.
* Government tagets to deliver three milliion additional homes by 2020 are threatened as house building rates are significantly affected by the down turn.

And they are prediciting 2018 for the rest of the UK ( to get back to 2007 values).

By the way, house completions in the UK were at 200K ( or less) during the boom. Which is per capita less than the 20K for Ireland ( which is therefore a relatively large number).

Immigrants are leaving. People are losing their jobs. There is no recovery in the next year. Dont buy now. Parlon and his paid for shrills in the Sindo are never right.

Gurgle

thewing wrote: »

Those who have their life savings tied up in bank shares are no doubt very angry at the minute, as they have seen their hard-earned savings decimated in recent months.

Those who have their life savings tied up in bank shares should have the sense not to touch them during a recession.

blah

thewing wrote: »

In short, property has still been the best place to put your money. Although prices have fallen by between 10-15 per cent on average, and may still fall more, they have not been decimated like stock prices or pension values and are likely to increase again substantially within 12 months.

Even by his logic I should put my money under the mattress for the next 12 months. Better return than any shares or property.

thewing wrote: »

Tom Parlon, of the Construction Industry Federation, has warned that the supply in the market is set to run out within nine months and with nothing new being built we are likely to be back where we were two years ago.

And what about all the empty houses? And immigrants returning home?


*Bear disclaimer: I emigrated 2 years ago and I'm gleefully eyeing up the Irish property market.

gurramok

What a propaganda piece!

Dear Daniel and Tom,

There are not enough people who earn enough to buy your overpriced houses.

By the time your recovery is underway within a year, the workforce will have declined alot(it is now) and unemployment is predicted by various quarters to reach 10%.

Maye you are right, lets buy a house in a recession.

Worst Regards

ZYX

blah wrote: »

Even by his logic I should put my money under the mattress for the next 12 months. Better return than any shares or property.

In fairness based on his logic, shares are now the place to put money. They have fallen 90%. Anyone buying Bank of Ireland shares last week at 83c is now sitting on a paper profit of 66%. Not bad in a week.

jmayo

ZYX wrote: »

In fairness based on his logic, shares are now the place to put money. They have fallen 90%. Anyone buying Bank of Ireland shares last week at 83c is now sitting on a paper profit of 66%. Not bad in a week.

Actually shares are a better bet when they are down than when they are up.
As one famous industrialist stated, "when everyone else is getting in it is time to get out" and vice versa.
You could actually make lots of money day trading on Irish Bank shares.
Then again you could lose money.

It's nice to see the SINDO hasn't lost it's love of all things property related.
BTW what had Brendan the Guru got to say on the matter ?

BendiBus

thewing wrote: »

Tom Parlon, of the Construction Industry Federation, has warned that the supply in the market is set to run out within nine months and with nothing new being built we are likely to be back where we were two years ago.

So then, Tom's members, astute businessmen that they are, will start building frantically from next January in order to capitalise on the upcoming property shortage! And the banks will start lending to the builders as they are sure of a tidy return.

I'll follow their lead and start buying in earnest when they start building in earnest.

punchestown

jmayo wrote: »

BTW what had Brendan the Guru got to say on the matter ?

The really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is. .......When you think about it, it makes sense to buy property now. Though of course some people say it always makes sense to buy property. There is no such thing as a good or a bad time to buy. It's always a good time to buy.

Brendan O'Connor Sunday July 29 2007

God only knows what his take on things now is!

With a bit of luck, any sane government (looks around...) will introduce credit controls to prevent bubbles from forming in the first place!

Thus clipping the wings of speculators and preventing the sheeple from following into future recessions.

blast05

And what about all the empty houses? And immigrants returning home?

The 1 thing to bear in mind re that is that if say (another?) 60,000 emigrants left over the next 12 months then probably equates to no more than 10-15,000 units given that they seem to live in groups of between 4 and 8 from my experience.

laurak265

House prices are only a worry for anyone who wants to sell. If its your home stay there and it won't worry you. Greedy people tryin to off load the mountain of properties are the ones that will suffer and rightly so, they were just greedy and pushing the prices up in the first place. The rest of us need not worry.

laurak265

laurak265 wrote: »

House prices are only a worry for anyone who wants to sell. If its your home stay there and it won't worry you. Greedy people tryin to off load the mountain of properties are the ones that will suffer and rightly so, they were just greedy and pushing the prices up in the first place. The rest of us need not worry.

A bit simplistic, as high prices also mean that those who must buy a house pay over the odds and suffer a poorer quality of life for many years, while they have a millstone of a mortgage round their necks.

Sad fact is that the sheeple believed they had to pay over the odds to own a house rather than look rationally at the costs and say "NO", speculators played on this with great success, the smart ones selling in 2006 and running with the money!

asdasd

House prices are only a worry for anyone who wants to sell. If its your home stay there and it won't worry you. Greedy people tryin to off load the mountain of properties are the ones that will suffer and rightly so, they were just greedy and pushing the prices up in the first place. The rest of us need not worry.

not correct. My bother wants to sell, has a better ( and safe) job than when he bought his shoebox, needs to sell the shoebox to get the bigger house, family on way etc.

Cant sell house. He is not in negative equity (yet) it just cant sell.

so he is suffering, and is not greedy.