Mildest Winter on record?

Gonzo

What do ye think of this winter so far, are we heading into what could be the mildest winter on record? There's only been a few days so far this winter where temperatures fell below double figures and I think only 2 to 3 mornings frost at most and the winter is already half over. Any website ive looked at is showing signs of weeks and weeks of mild muck weather to come. I think this is also the first time we've made it to New Years without even one threat for a cold snap in our direction. Normally its mostly Ireland who fares bad with mild weathers but this year it seems to be effecting the whole of Europe. I dont think anywhere in Europe has seen decent snow yet. The alps have been mainly snowless, lapland had only a bit of slush before christmas eve with temperatures over freezing and even places like Iceland today have temperatures around 8C. Do ye think this is set to continue for the rest of the winter/spring period before a possibly very hot summer arrives in 2007?

Danno

Looks like one of the mildest so far allright. However, I remember 1995/96 starting off quite mild, then bang outta nowhere the cold and snow came. Nature it seems, balances her books at some stage or another.

Supercell

It's pretty rare to have decent snow before January here, that said it's depressing to see the constant warm and storm that has become the norm this winter so far!!
It would be unprecidented to not at least have one artic blast even for a day or two during the winter, am hopeful

Trogdor

I think Danno is right nature will balance out the winter before the end i'd say it could sstart to become very cold as soon as around he 10th of January, but don't hold me to it :rolleyes:

Snowbie

In FI its set to get colder end of next weekish but thats far away still.

Presently it feels more like an April day with sun and showers and its very mild near 14c here.

fatherdougalmag

Snowbie wrote:

Presently it feels more like an April day ...

Except for the Christmas tree in the sitting room.

Snowbie

My tree is not in the sitting room.:p

Bloody temp shot up to 14.2c at 8.30pm last night.Christmas tree and does temps dont seem to christmasy:rolleyes:

It would be the mildest or one of the mildest if winter ended on dec 31st but it doesn't.

Of course there have been very mild snowless decembers like this one (though we've had our 2nd coldest night in 2 yrs here this december)

The most interesting one if I understand it correctly might have been december 1946 and early january 1947-of course you know what happened next...

During the night of 15-16 January, the temperature at Leeming in North Yorkshire didn't fall below 11.7 °C. The following day, maximum temperatures close to 14 °C were recorded in Norfolk, Herefordshire and Flintshire. All this was soon to change.

An area of high pressure moved northwards from France on 18 January. Two days later, the anticyclone was centred off north-west Norway. It then drifted south-east to southern Scandinavia, and dominated weather over the British Isles for the rest of the month. The first night frost came on the 20th and the winter began in earnest on the 23rd, when snow fell heavily over the south and south-west of England. Even in the Isles of Scilly, a few centimetres of snow fell. The blizzard in south-west England was the worst since 1891; many villages in Devon were isolated.

I know my late father often told me of conditions round here for weeks on end with the East winds and snow bringing blocked roads ,Drifts the height of houses and no trains due to blocked railways and just extreme hardship.That was at sea level!
The snow was still on croghan mt west of here in june of that year.
Below is a short history of the event and the synoptics as experience by the UKMO.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/winter.html

I might add by the way that theres an area of HP progged in some models to behave exactly like that one in Europe now

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055034368

take a look

Gonzo

BBC have once again forcasted the mild weather to continue throughout the month of January with no signs of decent cold weather in sight, the bbc often conservative with cold weather forecasts but so far this winter they have been right the whole time with their never ending mild weather forecasts.

Mothman

Tristrame wrote:

It would be the mildest or one of the mildest if winter ended on dec 31st but it doesn't.

Lets blow the feeling that the December just gone by was exceptionally mild.
Yes mild, not exceptional.

Taking average temp from 12 synoptic stations, the mean temp was 7.0C
Since 1970, there have been 10 milder Decembers

2004 7.2
1997 7.1
1994 7.3
1988 8.5
1987 7.3
1983 7.5
1977 7.4
1974 8.3
1972 7.1
1971 7.7

and with me, 2002, 03 & 04 were milder.

Stats often hide things, and perhaps this December gone by had more very mild days, but this was cancelled out by the pre xmas spell of frosts and fog.

I recorded 5 days with 13+C max
2005 4
2004 4
2003 1
2002 3
2001 1
2000 1

Ok so 5 days above 13C is a record but it is something that has happened each Dec

Snowbie

In my view every December does be pretty much the same here but on 3 occasions(nights)recorded temperatures falling below freezing which i never recorded before in December and also frost persistent during the day with no rise above 5c.Still doesnt make it freakishly mild or cold but avg except for the frost days which unfortunately are uncommon here when temps fall sub zero.

ninebeanrows

In Ireland December was just mild but in Britain it was exeptionally mild..

There are some obsecure signs of perhaps a change in the weather later in January

Snowbie

What to even milder weather:eek:

I do believe a change is in the wings too WC,second week in Jan on-wards it is trending towards but we shall again see.

lucernarian

Take this with a shovel of salt as it's an amateur's reading of complex computer-driven models.

After looking at the trends in the charts and the ensembles, there could be a brief cooling period at around the 10th but is quickly succeeded by the Atlantic conveyor belt. The outlook looks very zonal and a look at the polar jet charts doesn't look particularly inspiring. The models have been very consistent so far regarding the fall in 850 hPa temps and their subsequent rise. It will take a lot more than a fleeting -5 isotherm to give a decent cold spell.

Sorry for the doom and gloom but the main source of cold air at the moment seems to be over Greenland and the pressure is not building there at the moment. High pressure might form over some part of europe from warm air being pushed in at higher altitudes which would then cool. But we need the high pressure to the north or northwest I believe. This winter could very easily remaim milder than average.

This website shows the various global model charts if anyone wants to have a look.

SpitfireIV

Are things really that bad with regard to the 'mild' conditions as of late. Could it just be a case that after last years cold event that we were expecting the same, or worse this year, and now that it hasnt come, or doesnt seem to be coming its all doom and gloom. Is the winter we are having now not the 'normal' winter we usually have with any significant chance of snow and cold happening in February?

I know for me anyway after last years rollercoaster as soon as winter arrived I was anxiously looking for the cold to arrive, I was spoilt by the cold and the many close calls of last year :rolleyes:

lucernarian

I (hopefully) understand your point of view. It's to be expected that the winter in this country is usually based on mild maratime conditions. Still, I think that we will be waiting for a while yet, after January anyway in my view, before notably cold and snowy weather can possibly set in.

Supercell

I fear this winter is a foretaste of winters to come. Even brief cold spells will be the exception rather than the norm..
As to a '63 or a '47 or even a '82.. doubt any of us willl see anything like that again in our lifetimes.
Hope I'm very very wrong!!

Snowbie

And you have a better chance than most in seeing any snowfall where your staying atm.

So `47 `63 `77 `79 `82 `87 `91 and 2001 where significant snow fell(or at least you could make a snowball)in some part of this country and cold throughout the land.The significant thing about most of those years is that January was the colder/snowier month except for 91(Feb) and 2001(March).

As i said before looks like winter is beginning and ending late,this year could be the exact same and so far has not been to dis-similar from recent winters in terms of temps.
The last few March`s have brought at least some snow and is a chillier month.This is not an LRF but is what has generally been happening here i have witnessed.But i do miss the real easterly blasts that we used to get in January,was enough to keep you in doors for sure.

arctictree

BTW - Its unusual for us NOT to have at least one snow event each year here in Roundwood. Last winter was probably the closest we had to having no snow - I think there was only a sprinkling one morning.

Feb 2005 was very snowy.

Also I distinctly remember in 2003 that we had a storm a couple of days before Halloween and we had a couple of inches of snow - must be some sort of a record. Anyone remember that? There was also lots of Thunder and lightening.

A

Snowbie

The advantages of living up in the mountains.One of my mates sister lives not too far from powerscourt and i remember him saying around that time in early 2005 about his sister couldnt move out of her driveway as the snow was bad.Unfortunately was just a sleet event here down low.

Gonzo

for me here the last 16 winters have seen fek all snow except maybe once when 3 inchs feel a few years ago but for me what makes this winter seem even more mild/worse than any other is that so far there has not been one cold spell attack/alert. Even as far as 1st January most winters i can remember a fair few cold spell attacks, most of which didnt deliver anything but at least they provided some sort of dream or excitement but this year there hasnt been one moment of hope for a cold spell snow event and I dont remember us going this far into winter without that hope before. Also its the first time I remember the entire continent of Europe to remain largely snowless up till this point in time and for them this winter most seem even milder.

Snowbie

Thats 3 inches more snow than me Gonzo and also remember you posting a pic of snow in your garden last year in March from the same trough moving south which gave me wet snow here.Suppose make the most of it when you get it nowadays.

True about snowless Europe and scandi and also most parts of the northern plains in the US.Snow drought in some parts of the world while other snowless spots have gotten snow.

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=4981&nav=84&collection=topstory&from=wxcenter_video

Gonzo

lol I forgot about the snow in march altho it did only snow for about an hour and was melted that evening I think. Sickens me to think that during my childhood I took those wonderfull snowy winters for granted.

arctictree

arctictree wrote:

Also I distinctly remember in 2003 that we had a storm a couple of days before Halloween and we had a couple of inches of snow - must be some sort of a record. Anyone remember that? There was also lots of Thunder and lightening.

A

That was the northerly that brought 36 hours of thunderstorms to Dublin.

Mothman,I know the stats say that this december was not the mildest BUT what it totally lacked was a northerly blast or an Easterly blast even a 2 day wonder.
It's cold frosty weather was just a clear skies home grown lower athmosphere affair.
That while seasonal does not make for a cheery snow fan

would i be wrong in saying that our winter only begins in earnest in January and that we have more chance of snow in March than in December?
Do not despair yet!!!

Yes I concur with that, the seasons really do occur later than the "offically" stated times.

Perhaps the seasons should be aligned with the winter & sumer equnoxes
winter starting 21 Dec, spring 21 March, summer 21 June & autunm 21 September.

I believe some people already use this system.

Lets review this in mid March.

ninebeanrows

Nah. winter for me anyway begins on December 1st.. the reason being is because March aint winter, the sun gets higher in the sky and days cannot be too cold or snowy because when the sun rises the snows melt..

For a real cold spell of weather you need it to occur between mid December and mid February.. and at this time of typing it looks unlikely that this will happen this year..

Its a truly sad state of affairs that i look back at recent winters with a tinge of jealousy... how i would give for some of those charts or a winter like 2005 with the white christmas and late winter snow..

2006/07 is at the moment bringing a new low for cold weather fans hopes..

Still time for change but time is slip slip slipping away...

I think in a few days/weeks will get back to our reminicising ways which charts, chat, pictures of the cold spells of the past.... because this winter is just not happening

I dont think it matters what you call this part of the year my SIL's daffodils have already started to grow.

Personally I dont have any historical records, but this time last year we had several cold foggy days with temperatures not getting above about 2C, then in mid March we had the coldest night of the year -6 (in Birr) or should that be Birrrr;) and several burst water pipes:( so I remember it well

does anyone know if its true or not that we have more chance of snow in March than in December based on records?

Snowbie

Of late it seems that way.Its sometimes frustrating to think that if we get a nice cold easterly in march for sure an easterly in January would be colder.It does not happen to often any more if at all.
In march the sun is a bit stronger for convection purposes but on the downside the temps are that bit higher too any snow would be short lived but only if we get a consistent cold feed snow would ly and peg back the temps.

Mothman

Deleted User wrote:

does anyone know if its true or not that we have more chance of snow in March than in December based on records?

I have data for snow falling since 1999.
Dublin AP Casement
Dec 1999 4 2
2000 5 5
2001 0 1
2002 0 0
2003 0 1
2004 2 1
2005 0 0
2006 0 0
The only days of snow lying at 9am was 3 each in 2000

Dublin AP Casement
Mar 2000 0 0
2001 4 3
2002 2 1
2003 0 0
2004 0 1
2005 1 2
2006 4 4
The only days of snow lying at 9am was 3 at Casement and 2 at Dublin AP in 2001 (following the lying snow in Dec 2000)

Format didn't hold

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Nah. winter for me anyway begins on December 1st.. the reason being is because March aint winter, the sun gets higher in the sky and days cannot be too cold or snowy because when the sun rises the snows melt..

Only once in my entire lifetime do I remember a cold snap Easterly,a proper one that delivered ice days/days around 0 or +1c in Early december.
It was short lived with only coastal snow flurries.
That was cold enough for dry snow and was before you were born.
Most of the decent snow I've seen in Ireland in my lifetime has been in january or february-though we did have 8 inches of very dry snow once in march.

Even the Xmas snowy spells that we've had since you were posting here WC were wet slushy marginal events on the whole.

Winter for me or the potential for wintry weather begins in earnest in late december and ends in early march,though it is possible for extreme set ups to deliver winter before and after that time frame.
It is rarer than hens teeth though.
Mind you snow in Ireland,lying snow greater than 2 or 3 inches unless you are on high ground is rarer than hens teeth these days.

Leaving aside global warming and all to that,the law of averages and the fact that nature usually in my experience levels out weather,I wouldnt be surprised if eventually we did again get a January 1982.

My Father lived through the 3 great spells,1947,1963 and 1982 as well as the spells of the 80's.
So I suppose if you ignore all other facts,then statistically you should see a few big snows in Ireland over the course of a life time...

Ireland was colder than Saltzburg last night-at least I was at 11pm,they were +9c and I was +7c

When theres nothing to the East in January,it's a pretty poor look out.

Endurance Man

Stoked, maybe i dont have to move back home, ill just chill here until it warms up . It has seemed really warm this winter, hardly needed a jacket.

Gonzo

next week looks like it cud even be milder than this week on some days, 13C/14C might happen in one or 2 places. Im sure there have been a few cold rainy days in July/August where the temperatures have not been too different from that and this is January!

fatherdougalmag

I'm not sure mild is the right word to use with this Metcheck glitch (spot the deliberate mistake )

SpitfireIV

fatherdougalmag wrote:

I'm not sure mild is the right word to use with this Metcheck glitch (spot the deliberate mistake )

Bloody hell, now that IS a mild winter

Gonzo

they have 36C down for next Wednesday in Dublin? lol wish it was true...

SpitfireIV

Its not a glitch now that I look at it again, in fact Dublin probably WILL get them temperatures!! :eek: :eek:


Because its not Metcheck 'UK and Ireland'


...and its not even Dublin Ireland................its Metcheck 'Australia' and Dublin in Australia

Snowbie

Took you an hour to spot that Croppy,hope you didnt tell anyone else:D

Danno

SpitfireIV

Snowbie wrote:

Took you an hour to spot that Croppy,hope you didnt tell anyone else:D

Hey I'm a smart person, I notice things............;)

SpitfireIV

This very day in 1839 we had lots of snow in Ireland, lucky beggars you might think :mad:.............but then the night of the 6th of Jan they had a severe windstorm! :eek:, so I guess we're not too bad, weather extremes were happening even back then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

CerebralCortex

Is this mild winter any reflection on the coming summer?

Trogdor

CerebralCortex wrote:

Is this mild winter any reflection on the coming summer?

It's impossible to predict really especially after this winter(so far;) ) has seen nearly every longe forecast to be completely wrong. Although judging bby recent years i'd say it's a fair bet to say that it will be hot:rolleyes:

Garret

um i've been absolutely freezing when i've been out tbh

more so than any other year

Endurance Man

Garret wrote:

um i've been absolutely freezing when i've been out tbh

more so than any other year

Nah, its only cold early morning and late at nite, during the day its been grand. Hardly needed a jacket and this is in Newry which is supposed to be colder than Navan? Was a bit disappointed tbh, my mate was down from SA and i wanted to show him some real cold.

Temperatures are only an indicator of how warm it is - the wind and humidity here make it colder sometimes at 8C in my opinion than say 2C on a clear sunny frosty morning.

In Tenerife there is very little to no snow on Mt Teide this winter. In New York it was 21 C (yes Celsius) the other day - did anyone hear about that! Snow has been late coming to them this year the latest in a long time

darkman2

Winter arrives next weekend with a Northwesterly and a risk of snow showers.

Endurance Man

darkman2 wrote:

Winter arrives next weekend with a Northwesterly and a risk of snow showers.

Didn't they say that last week , and the week before that actually.

Trogdor

Endurance Man wrote:

Didn't they say that last week , and the week before that actually.

Yes, but this time it looks like it will actually happen with the risk of it being more prolonged:D