Another potential damaging storm Sat/Sun

ninebeanrows

I think this deserves a thread of its own, basically a deep area of Low Pressure is set to crash into western Ireland late this Saturday.

Heavy rain will push across the country and the first swathe of Storm Force winds will push up the Irish sea ahead of the centre of the system.. These winds are likely to be extremely severe but only last 4-6 hours... during phase 1 of the storm Eastern areas of Ireland will be worst affected with sustained values of 50-55mph along the eastern seaboard, gusts may exceed 80mph in these areas leading to structural damage and possible electricity loss etc.. The storm winds will be accompanied by heavy rain adding to the effect of the wind. Luckily this will occur between 10pm Saturday and 5am Sunday.

Phase 2 will push a swathe of Storm winds across much of the country over Sunday afternoon and evening with an area of sustained winds of 50-55mph over all coastlines.. Winds will gust over 80mph in the west and inland gusts will exceed 65mph. Towards evening the worst area affected will be a swathe just south of Ulster from west to east.. With gusts above 80mph for a time.
These storm winds will again be accompanied by heavy rain adding to the mayhem..

This is likely to be the worst storm of the year so far and i'll keep ya all up to date..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn369.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn549.png

Met Eireann Warning released earlier...

ssued at 01 December 2006 - 14:38
Early Warning of Severe Weather
Severe Weather Warning

Issued at 14:00 Friday 1st December 2006

1. South to southeast winds will reach mean speeds of 35 knots, gusting 50 to 70 knots (65km/h, gusting 90 to 130 km/h)

Valid from 15:00 to 24:00 Saturday 2nd December 2006

2. West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 30 to 40 knots, gusting 60 to 75 knots (60 to 75 km/h, gusting 110 to 140 km/h)

Valid from 04:00 to 21:00 Sunday 3rd December 2006

Snowbie

Continue here

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

I think this deserves a thread of its own, basically a deep area of Low Pressure is set to crash into western Ireland late this Saturday.

Heavy rain will push across the country and the first swathe of Storm Force winds will push up the Irish sea ahead of the centre of the system.. These winds are likely to be extremely severe but only last 4-6 hours... during phase 1 of the storm Eastern areas of Ireland will be worst affected with sustained values of 50-55mph along the eastern seaboard, gusts may exceed 80mph in these areas leading to structural damage and possible electricity loss etc.. The storm winds will be accompanied by heavy rain adding to the effect of the wind. Luckily this will occur between 10pm Saturday and 5am Sunday.

Phase 2 will push a swathe of Storm winds across much of the country over Sunday afternoon and evening with an area of sustained winds of 50-55mph over all coastlines.. Winds will gust over 80mph in the west and inland gusts will exceed 65mph. Towards evening the worst area affected will be a swathe just south of Ulster from west to east.. With gusts above 80mph for a time.
These storm winds will again be accompanied by heavy rain adding to the mayhem..

This is likely to be the worst storm of the year so far and i'll keep ya all up to date..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn369.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn549.png

Met Eireann Warning released earlier...

The worst storm for wind - yes - for rain probrably not.....

Although the ground is saturated so flooding always possible.

BTW WC you should let the folks at NW know your putting back up your website:)

We are also coming into a thundery period of weather at the same time:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=storms;type=esto;sess=

darkman2

Oooooooh this is going to be rough!

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20061201/18/48/airpressure.png

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

The worst storm for wind - yes - for rain probrably not.....

Although the ground is saturated so flooding always possible.

BTW WC you should let the folks at NW know your putting back up your website:)

We are also coming into a thundery period of weather at the same time:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=storms;type=esto;sess=

Don't think it'll be up until 2 now! but it's going up tonight!! I've been working all week! it ain't too good but hopefully it'll be better after a few as i had more and more...

As for the Storm.. There must be growing concern in the Met Eireann this evening..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn309.png

a 50KT barb on Wicklow head for for tomorrow 11pm:eek:

The the second bash

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.png

I have to admit, never at this range have i seen such vicious charts for eastern areas of Ireland since i began model watching.. be it only 3/4 years ago.

Snowbie

The charts the other day where worse and nothing happened in the east for thursday 30th event.

revr wrote:

look at this baby for Ireland on Thursday - We may be blown away

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

The charts the other day where worse and nothing happened in the east for thursday 30th event.

That chart illustrate the 850hpa wind snowbie, not the 10metre wind.. the other day was not predicted to be as near as bad.. then GFS was predicting upto 40KT's out in the Irish sea this evenings 18z is predicting winds of upto 60KT's in the Irish sea.

Supercell

It has the look of a whippersnapper

Going to be interesting

Snowbie

Ah i see.Well spotted there WC.

So,maybe if we get our westerlies it might break my 60mph record.If a southerly wind forget about it with the Wickla mtns topography spoiling it.
My anemometer needs a good spin nowadays.West is best for stronger winds in this case.

ninebeanrows

Okay the site is up... but not quite finished.. but i got really tired!! some links broke etc... enjoy

http://www.weathercheck.net

darkman2

Great stuff WC, I look forward to using the site:D

rc28

well done, its great to have a dedicated irish weather website with everything in one place and you are off to a good start with the interesting weather expected in next few days. good luck

ninebeanrows

Thanks folks.. over the next while i'll add stuff to it! And hopefully i'll have all the links working tomorrow.;)

off to bebos! night all

Villain

Congrats on the site weathercheck.

It looks like this is going to get rough, WC how is Carlow positioned for this storm i.e. will we see gusts over 70mph, there is a few things I might need to baton down in garden if so?

ninebeanrows

irish1 wrote:

Congrats on the site weathercheck.

It looks like this is going to get rough, WC how is Carlow positioned for this storm i.e. will we see gusts over 70mph, there is a few things I might need to baton down in garden if so?

Gusts to 65mph are likely possibly touch 70mph at times i would reckon!

Will post and update soon and thanks...;)

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Gusts to 65mph are likely possibly touch 70mph at times i would reckon!

Will post and update soon and thanks...;)

That is truly an exceptional prediction for a gust in a landlocked area,tell me how would you think a gust speed of that extreme happen down there?

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

That is truly an exceptional prediction for a gust in a landlocked area,tell me how would you think a gust speed of that extreme happen down there?

I am not going to answer such a loaded question... :rolleyes: Perhaps take a look at some synoptic charts and find your own answer.

As for the storm, were seeing it get its presence felt out in the Atlantic with large pressure dropes occurring. The K3 bouy has seen a 10mb drop in the last 3 horus and is falling rapidly. The sytem will slowly push eastwards. With The cold front pushing across the country, just ahead of this will be the highest winds for Eastern areas with gusts to or above 75mph in eastern and southern coasts.. Gusts to 60/65mph in inland Eastern areas - from around 11pm tonight. Then tomorrow afternoon it looks like the risk of severe winds has tranferred slightly more north with perhaps Southern areas getting away with just 50mph gusts, while southern Ulster and a swathe from Galway to Dublin receive a bashing. Western and Northern coasts will recieve gusts above 80mph while Eastern coasts will see gusts upto 75mph. Inland areas across the Midlands will see gusts to around 60/65mph.

Snowbie

You cant answer the question or you wont.Which is it.
Seems are fair question.

rc28

met eireann have now upgraded the maximum wind gusts:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=26797
:eek:

darkman2

Snowbie, ppl appreciate your efforts on the forum but it has become increasingly unsavoury in here since you became a moderator. The tone against WC would suggest you have issues with him - that does not go un-noticed. Can you sort it out or is this going to keep going on? WC is entitled to his opinion no matter how wild it may appear.

On the storm 60mph on land.

highdef

I agree Darkman. WC has some very useful input into this forum. I generally lurk but am on viewing this thread all the time. Snowbie, your attitude to WC really does not seem appropriate with your current role as mod.

Scubadevils

Have to agree also, been a long time lurker and odd time poster but I felt had to post now on this. I have read what WC has to say for a couple of years now and his posts have been very informative + a little dramatic at times - more in the past, I notice a level of caution and maturity in recent times! I can't understand the hostility from Snowbie to WC, seems very unfair and wrong from a mod. Earthman kept WC in check but I never felt he was directing unfairly towards him...now back to lurking and hoping for some snow this winter

Well done WC on getting the site back up btw.

ninebeanrows

Thanks folks;)

Weather Warning

Issued at 02 December 2006 - 11:58
Severe Weather Warning
Issued at 11:00 Saturday, 2-Dec-06

Stormy conditions this afternoon and evening with some damaging gusts of 100-140 km/hr.
Further stormy weather at times tomorrow.

Gale Warning

Southerly winds will reach strong gale or storm force today or early tonight on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea.West to Southwest winds will reach gale or strong gale force tonight on all sea areas, increasing to storm force at times tomorrow.
Issued at 11:00 on 02-Dec-2006

Met.ie warning.. Similar to my thoughts although i don't expect tonights winds to arrive until abit later in the evening from around 10pm the strongest winds should arrive.;)

In fairness to snowbie , if you think about it,he did ask a valid question.
This is a weather discussion board and it's supposed to be a place for discussing varying opinions.

Inland locations are usually unlikely to get as much wind as exposed coastal areas for a very basic reason - topography ie hills locally would dampen the wind gusts as the wind has to rise up over the top and back down again.
That creates some shielding compared to open sea tracks.
Woods and trees create similar micro effects.

Knowing Tullow,its going to get those kind of effects-so if models are predicting large wind gusts,I'd be modifying those slightly for that area.

Thats not to say there wouldnt be very damaging gusts there though.


Now as the former moderator of this board,Could I respectfully ask that posters here continue to treat each other with respect and ditch this poisonous "them against us" attitude thats recently been permeating this board.

WC,you'd do well not to be stoking this either with your rolleye smilies and jibes at moderators.
It's far easier to be nice and just justify your position when asked.

Meanwhile

Currently -9c here in chicago by the way and we're about to head out to the coldest part of Illinois now where they got 18" of snow yesterday as opposed to the 8" here in downtown

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

In fairness to snowbie , if you think about it,he did ask a valid question.
This is a weather discussion board and it's supposed to be a place for discussing varying opinions.

Inland locations are usually unlikely to get as much wind as exposed coastal areas for a very basic reason - topography ie hills locally would dampen the wind gusts as the wind has to rise up over the top and back down again.
That creates some shielding compared to open sea tracks.
Woods and trees create similar micro effects.

Knowing Tullow,its going to get those kind of effects-so if models are predicting large wind gusts,I'd be modifying those slightly for that area.

Thats not to say there wouldnt be very damaging gusts there though.


Now as the former moderator of this board,Could I respectfully ask that posters here continue to treat each other with respect and ditch this poisonous "them against us" attitude thats recently been permeating this board.

WC,you'd do well not to be stoking this either with your rolleye smilies and jibes at moderators.
It's far easier to be nice and just justify your position when asked.

Meanwhile

Currently -9c here in chicago by the way and we're about to head out to the coldest part of Illinois now where they got 18" of snow yesterday as opposed to the 8" here in downtown

Didn't realise you were in the US of A:D How long are you there for? Lucky sod!

As for the above, i have nothing against anybody here, i do however have the right not to answer question i don't wish to answer. In future though i will just totally ignore things and not make any comment or smiley.

Hope you enjoy your stay in the USA! and bring back some snow:D

revr

TOnight is goin be well stormy but I tink on Sunday afternoon-evenin the strongr winds seem to be edgin North more into central Scotland with the latest 12z

Robxxx7

Tis getting very windy now here in Kerry (Killorglin)

Takeshi_Kovacs

Starting to rain a bit here now, although nothing major, also the wind isn't really strong either yet..

ninebeanrows

It looks like the winds are generally beginning to pick up now. Highest winds for the east and south will occur between 11pm-3am.

Villain

Snowbie I asked Weathercheck his opinion which I value and appreciate now if you want to give me a different opinion feel free but how about a little bit more respect and a little less of the attitude.

Anyway, the winds have picked up a lot here in the last 2 hours with heavy gusts. A westerly wind is actually one of the worst for my location as to the north, south and east I have high land however to the west its pretty low.

I'd imagine my electricity will be gone in the morning, it normally goes when the winds get over 40mph or so.

Night for the fire and the TV and a nice bottle of bubbly. Keep up the good work WC

Snowbie

I am bewildered by what i have just read from some of you.I have asked a simple and straightforward question to you WC and i have received this.

I get asked questions on this forum all the time and through PMs and i answer them to the best of my ability as a genuine poster.I post on here frequently than some of you and when i ask a question you think you have the right to be obnoxious towards me,why?
I asked a question

Snowbie wrote:

That is truly an exceptional prediction for a gust in a landlocked area,tell me how would you think a gust speed of that extreme happen down there?

This is a reply i got

Weathercheck wrote:

I am not going to answer such a loaded question...:rolleyes: Perhaps take a look at some synoptic charts and find your own answer.

Now that is blatantly obnoxious.

I replied

You cant answer the question or you wont.Which is it.
Seems are fair question.

So the floodgates have opened for some of you to confront and slander me in such a way has utterly amazed me.I have no problem with anyone who posts on here nor do i have to moderate that often if at all.Its a discussion about weather and all things related so quit the comments and get on with it.