GJP Main Event Hand

Marq

This hand was the subject of much argument between myself and Luke Ivory, and he suggested that I post it on boards.

The situation: We are down to 11 players, there are six on our table and five on the other. the other table have us outchipped by about 3:2. The blinds are 5,000/10,000. I have 170,000. While my stack is comfortable it's slightly below average. On the previous hand, there had been a large raise under the gun from a solid player and a push from the BB to my direct left resulting in a showdown where the original raiser's pockete tens got rivered by ace jack.

the guy with the pocket tens now has 24,000 left and is in the Big Blind for 10k. He has announced his intention to be all in this hand.
It is folded around to me on the button. I notice that the SB is going to fold (this is a dead cert 100% tell).
I have K4o, what's my move?

sikes

stick in it, fairly standard i would have thought

marius

Marq wrote:

This hand was the subject of much argument between myself and Luke Ivory, and he suggested that I post it on boards.

The situation: We are down to 11 players, there are six on our table and five on the other. the other table have us outchipped by about 3:2. The blinds are 5,000/10,000. I have 170,000. On the previous hand, there had been a large raise under the gun from a solid player and a push from the BB to my direct left resulting in a showdown where the original raiser's pockete tens got rivered by ace jack.

the guy with the pocket tens now has 24,000 left and is in the Big Blind for 10k. He has announced his intention to be all in this hand.
It is folded around to me on the button. I notice that the SB is going to fold (this is a dead cert 100% tell).
I have K4o, what's my move?

Push

BigCityBanker

Fold - there is no need for you to be the hero.

Gholimoli

no brainer raise.
i say raise just incase your read is wrong on the SB and he has a hand.

DapperGent

This is a totally blatant push.

sikes

Gholimoli wrote:

i say raise just incase your read is wrong on the SB and he has a hand.

by stick it in i mean raise too

5starpool

You are ahead of an average hand so it's not the worst hand to take on a random hand with. I might just call the 10k to make sure the SB does nothing stupid, no matter how sure you are, and then call the other 14k.

sikes

5starpool wrote:

You are ahead of an average hand so it's not the worst hand to take on a random hand with. I might just call the 10k to make sure the SB does nothing stupid, no matter how sure you are, and then call the other 14k.

can we call a push on the flop if we miss? i dont think so.

bubbleking

push you are a favourite against 2 random cards

DapperGent

I don't like raising to 30k and giving the SB an opportunity to make a squeezy on us that we can't call.

5starpool

sikes wrote:

can we call a push on the flop if we miss? i dont think so.

I was doing the above based on the assumption that the BB was putting it all in preflop regardless. If this isn;t a stone cold certainty then make it 24k to go preflop. I was just erring on the side of caution if the SB is a sneaky fecker who pretends to fold but then raises.

Marq

As I said in the post I am 100% positive that teh SB is folding. This hand is heads up.

I'm posting this hand out of interest in how many people would fold and how many would raise. I think I made the right move and nothing will convince me otherwise, but I'd like to see the arguments for raising and folding.

kincsem

Fold

You are trying to go through two players with K4o. Your read on the SB might not be correct, as many players act. You could fall for his "fold" to find he has a monster.

You can't play the SB hand. That's the SB's decision.

How much does the SB have? If you make it 24k and he raises to 100k you are folding, and saying goodbye to 24k.

You are trying to read two players 100%.

5starpool

I'd like to think that I wouldn't fold and that I would make it 24k as K4 is regularly ahead of 2 random cards, but at this stage of the tourney and not exactly rolling in chips, I may fold in reality.

I still think raise is the best option if you are disregarding the SB totally.

brianmc

If we're ignoring the SB then it's a pretty simple problem really.

We're happy to play K4 against two random cards so you could limp and let him push but I wouldn't because I've seen people do stranger things than folding for their remaining 1.4BBs. So raise IMO.

Edit: With KT+ I might limp-call because I'm eager to have him put his chips in. How smart is the BB?

Juan Pablo

I'd make it 24k in this spot with anything higher than a T in my hand tbh. We are ahead more often then we are behind in this situation.

karlh

+ev if you're better than Q7 and there's a dead small blind there for the taking.....but if there's allin calls being made with AJ/similar, with playable stacks left in the tournament, I'm keeping that 20% of my stack to use to greater effect.

for the raisers, i certainly dont like calling 10k. Make it 30k or wait for a hand.

bubbleking

wait i just realised isnt K4o the hand thats never been beaten?? you have the nuts:D

Hitman Actual

You're not actually much of a favourite against a random hand (52% or so), which surprised me a bit, but surely with the 15K already in the middle, you should get the 24K in here? (On the pot size, has he now 14K left, or 24K left after paying his BB?) You'll be left with 15BBs if you lose, but that's not too bad, although it's getting very tight.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

jimbling

this is a standard push. just can't see the argument for folding (other than the SB risk - which is not a risk as mark is 100% sure*)




*for arguments sake just pretend the SB folded out of turn.

brianmc

lenny_leonard wrote:

You're not actually much of a favourite against a random hand (52% or so), which surprised me a bit, but surely with the 15K already in the middle, you should get the 24K in here?

The €EV of knocking the player out and reducing the field to 10 is significant too. You have to play this hand.

Solksjaer

Maybe I'm wrong but I doubt it, but ain't this exactly the types of opportunity we like in poker. going in as probable favourite without risking even half your chips and moving one step nearer the finish line, I'd raise everytime here and expect to be ahead of random. Anyway isn't K 4 some kind of mystical hand aroud these here parts.

I think you have to raise as a call gives the SB too much value.

If Luke says fold I think he was just hoping you don't blow your chips. I'm sure he'd agree this is a raise.

ollyk1

brianmc wrote:

The €EV of knocking the player out and reducing the field to 10 is significant too. You have to play this hand.

How can Luke be arguing a fold??? :eek:

With the dead money and an above average hand its gotta be a raise to stick him all-in. It's actually funny how many times the person in this spot folds.

If your 100% certain that the SB is uninterested this is automatic. I occasionally do this with sooted connectors and the like just to try and get a dangerous player out even though i'm probably going in on the wrong end of a 60/40 but with the correct price. If you lose the hand it isn't catastrophic either you still have enough chips to battle on and people will be afraid to go near you without a hand because "you crazzy".

Ste05

Assuming your read on the SB is correct, this is about as no-brainer as they come, stick it in.

EDIT: I'd do this with nearly any 2 as well. Once the SB is folding.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Ste05

His thinking is a bit off, why do we want his chips going to someone else?? Take a +EV shot to take them ourselves. If Marq wanted to squeek up the money ladder then maybe, but I'm sure he was playing to win.

Also Marq's stack is in need of as many chips as he can get.

Solksjaer

LuckyLloyd wrote:

In fairness to Luke, he made some interesting points - even if I disagreed with his conclusion.

In his view, Paddy would still be under pressure if he was to multiply his stack three fold over the next two / three blind rounds. He would continue to push with below average hands until he got to about 10 big blinds again. As such, Luke reckoned that someone at the table would get him over the line as a significant underdog soon. Therefore, fold and wait till someone can go in with a big edge to eliminate him.

Luke also noted that Marq's stack A) was not desperate for an accumalation of chips and would be hurting just a little by losing the hand. Therefore, Luke figured that Marq shouldn't have felt the need to take him on with a poor hand (K4o, while ahead of two randoms is very average).

Mathamatically, the raise looks correct every day of the week to me. But there is no doubt that there is a small bit of logic in Luke's thinking.

The flaw in the above really is A) What are you waiting for if not an opportunity to get in (probably ahead) and amass some MORE chips .
Why wait for someone else to knock him out when you can do it yourself NOW. Some poeple (and I'm not naming names..:-) ) can get as low as 5k and double/double/double/ad infinitem iit seems and before you know where you are they win the tourny and all because you didn't knock him out .

BigCityBanker

I am quite surprised that only a handful of us have suggested a fold and so many are advocating taking him on....

In the long run this is +EV. However, imo we must look at this play at a given point in time and not over a life of expected outcomes. Personally I think it is poor tournament play to get your chips over the line here (I am advocating this from my style not from any hard and fast strategy). I am in the same camp as Luke here for the reasons stated above.

Jesus Wept

Marq wrote:

This hand was the subject of much argument between myself and Luke Ivory, and he suggested that I post it on boards.

The situation: We are down to 11 players, there are six on our table and five on the other. the other table have us outchipped by about 3:2. The blinds are 5,000/10,000. I have 170,000. While my stack is comfortable it's slightly below average. On the previous hand, there had been a large raise under the gun from a solid player and a push from the BB to my direct left resulting in a showdown where the original raiser's pockete tens got rivered by ace jack.

the guy with the pocket tens now has 24,000 left and is in the Big Blind for 10k. He has announced his intention to be all in this hand.
It is folded around to me on the button. I notice that the SB is going to fold (this is a dead cert 100% tell).
I have K4o, what's my move?

I could understand this raise if you had the 93, but k4? I don't know what you were thinking?!

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

In the long run this is +EV.

This is all that matters.

Samba

let's see 5 cards.

connie147

Im with BCB. I remember posting here last year about a hand in the Irish Open where I was on the Button with KJ, small blind was almost all in with his blind and the BB definately(100%) had no interest in the hand as he was actually so disinterested he was on his mobile,so with that 100% tell, I moved all in to take on the sb alone,he puts the rest of his few chips in, the the bb says"I gotta go,I,m in a hand", hangs up and smugly calls with AA. and my tourney is over.

So I dont think theres any such thing as a 100% tell. A good player can give you that 100% tell to mislead you. Theres always the chance sb will come over your head to take on the BB alone and youll have to lay down. Plus, if the BB is as good a player as is suggested, why take the chance of doubling him up easily when he's under pressure?. You do have less than the average stack so I dont think its an automatic raise.

Marq

Ste05 wrote:

His thinking is a bit off, why do we want his chips going to someone else?? Take a +EV shot to take them ourselves. If Marq wanted to squeek up the money ladder then maybe, but I'm sure he was playing to win.

Also Marq's stack is in need of as many chips as he can get.

this is a good point and one that I considered before raising. It is likely that Paddy will go out soon (as it happened, he came seventh, but these crazy things happen), and I want his chips. I was in a perfect position to take on a random hand for a small precentage of my stack with a hand that was above average and with a strong chance of there being dead money in the pot. when everyone folded to me I decided that if I had Q7 or better I would raise as long as Eugene (SB) didn't show any interest. I was getting 6:5 on my money for better than a 1:1 shot.

I agree that you can never have a 100% read on a player. all sorts of crazy things go through the heads of people and Eugene may have looked back at his cards at the last minute and realised that he had misread his hand and had AK instead of K2 or something.

In the end I made a raise to 20,000 (minraise) for two reasons:
1) if I am wrong and the SB is acting with a monster I have invested the minimum and gotten away cheaply if he reraises.
2) I felt that Paddy might read my raise as having a lot of strength. I could put him all in, I didn't. I could have open pushed, I didn't. I made a raise that looked like it wanted some action, and as it turned out, Paddy was very close to folding. I have often seen players make bad moves in this situation and fold because they believe they are up against a monster and I thought that I would give him every opportunity to do so.

What do people think of this?

Results: paddy eventually stuck in the extra 14,000 and I called. He had 78o and hit two pair on the flop to take down the pot.

Paddy played incredibly well the whole time I was at his table and was my nemesis for all of day three - I just couldn't get through him with a raise, and twice I was ahead of him only for him to dog me in big pots (including this one). I had dropped big suited aces three times to his over-the-top pushes and was twice shown hands that crushed mine and the other time a pocket pair. I felt he was my biggest threat at the second last table. My tournament was beginning to turn sour at this point and I felt that I could make much better use of the final table bubble with him out of the picture. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way and he played fantastically to get back in the frame.

Marq

connie147 wrote:

You do have less than the average stack so I dont think its an automatic raise.

While I have less than average even if I lose this pot I will still be second in chips on my table and have 15BBs which means that I'm not in trouble. Even if I had half my stack I think this is a raise, although it's closer with the chance of the SB sticking around.

brianmc

Marq wrote:

In the end I made a raise to 20,000 (minraise) for two reasons:
1) if I am wrong and the SB is acting with a monster I have invested the minimum and gotten away cheaply if he reraises.
2) I felt that Paddy might read my raise as having a lot of strength. I could put him all in, I didn't. I could have open pushed, I didn't. I made a raise that looked like it wanted some action, and as it turned out, Paddy was very close to folding. I have often seen players make bad moves in this situation and fold because they believe they are up against a monster and I thought that I would give him every opportunity to do so.

What do people think of this?

I'm not sure about your logic on the min-raise... Surely Paddy knows that you know that you are looking at his 24K tank and saying "I'll take you on"? Maybe not. I don't think the min-raise is much different to an all-in in that regard. Then again, I was on the side line and you were in the game.

As for the SB. I guess it achieves a certain amount of risk minimization against him.

As for not being able to get through Paddy... I think it's just one of those "poker" things. The cards that get dealt do have to have a certain amount to do with the outcome of the tournament. You played a good game by all accounts Marq. Well done.

ocallagh

I don't know why people are advocating a push. It's not necessary. The BB only has 24k. By pushing we are creating an unnecessary risk with the SB waking up with a hand.

I think a min raise is perfect. It risks the minimum but achieves our goal of taking on the BB.

Solksjaer

ocallagh wrote:

I don't know why people are advocating a push. It's not necessary. The BB only has 24k. By pushing we are creating an unnecessary risk with the SB waking up with a hand.

I think a min raise is perfect. It risks the minimum but achieves our goal of taking on the BB.

Agree a push is unnecessary! Didn't see someone post that. NOw that I see Paddy hit the flop change my mind don't minrasie :-)

aside!
So as not to bringup an older thread..(the playing poker too much thread)
I was typing an email to a supplier asking him if he received the goods I needed for a delivery and instead of typing 'received' I typed 'Reraise'
and he must have been watchingTV/ playing poker himself as he typed
'FOLD' with a little smiley.

BigCityBanker

Ste05 wrote:

This is all that matters.

If this was a 1/2 cash game I raise every time as in the long run I understand I will be on top.

However this is the business end of a major tournament - you will not have the opportunity to run this another 52 times if you happen to go broke the first 48 times you run it - in short I dont believe it is a valid argument to say that this play in isolation will lead to +EV in the long run. You wont be running it for the same risk/reward payoff enough of times for it to be viable. If you want to consider rerunning this at 1/2 cash as your path to mean reversion then take your chance. I fold everytime - as I said above - you dont have to be the hero.

brianmc

BigCityBanker wrote:

If this was a 1/2 cash game I raise every time as in the long run I understand I will be on top.

However this is the business end of a major tournament - you will not have the opportunity to run this another 52 times if you happen to go broke the first 48 times you run it - in short I dont believe it is a valid argument to say that this play in isolation will lead to +EV in the long run. You wont be running it for the same risk/reward payoff enough of times for it to be viable. If you want to consider rerunning this at 1/2 cash as your path to mean reversion then take your chance. I fold everytime - as I said above - you dont have to be the hero.

So by your logic Marq should have sold his €1000 ticket because while he is better than the average player in the game and has a positive EV from playing it he's not going to play several hundred of these games.

jimbling

BCB and STE.
This is exactly what I was talking about in the other post.....
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=52421824#post52421824

The current situation (BCBs point) needs to be built into the EV calculation.
If you do this then both your statements are correct. Currently I think you're both wrong

BigCityBanker

brianmc wrote:

So by your logic Marq should have sold his €1000 ticket because while he is better than the average player in the game and has a positive EV from playing it he's not going to play several hundred of these games.

This depends on wether or not he can also recoup the reg fee of €70

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

If this was a 1/2 cash game I raise every time as in the long run I understand I will be on top.

However this is the business end of a major tournament - you will not have the opportunity to run this another 52 times if you happen to go broke the first 48 times you run it - in short I dont believe it is a valid argument to say that this play in isolation will lead to +EV in the long run. You wont be running it for the same risk/reward payoff enough of times for it to be viable. If you want to consider rerunning this at 1/2 cash as your path to mean reversion then take your chance. I fold everytime - as I said above - you dont have to be the hero.

EV is EV whether it's in a cash game or in a tournament. So many people don't understand this and think that EV should only be used as a deciding factor in a cash game and tournament survival is more important in a tournament. In this situation I actually think the EV is better than if this was in a Cash game.

If we win in a cash game we win, what like 3BB's or something, so what.

In this situation, the risk, (losing 2.4BB's) compared to the reward of winning 3.4 BB's, knocking out a player, getting closer to the final table, moving up the money ladder, creating a much more playable stack, increasing the chances of winning the whole thing, etc. etc. etc. I really can't understand people who are saying to fold here. What are you waiting for? AA? Are you going to fold your Button from now on until someone else knocks out this Villain?

Ste05

jimbling wrote:

BCB and STE.
This is exactly what I was talking about in the other post.....
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=52421824#post52421824

The current situation (BCBs point) needs to be built into the EV calculation.
If you do this then both your statements are correct. Currently I think you're both wrong

As you can see from the above, as usual I'm right....

ocallagh

Ste05 wrote:

EV is EV whether it's in a cash game or in a tournament. So many people don't understand this and think that EV should only be used as a deciding factor in a cash game and tournament survival is more important in a tournament. In this situation I actually think the EV is better than if this was in a Cash game.

If we win in a cash game we win, what like 3BB's or something, so what.

In this situation, the risk, (losing 2.4BB's) compared to the reward of winning 3.4 BB's, knocking out a player, getting closer to the final table, moving up the money ladder, creating a much more playable stack, increasing the chances of winning the whole thing, etc. etc. etc. I really can't understand people who are saying to fold here. What are you waiting for? AA? Are you going to fold your Button from now on until someone else knocks out this Villain?

100% agree with all this, well put.

back to you BCB:)

BigCityBanker

If BB had exactly the same sized stack as the button in this instance and declared that he was going all in blind as he had just received a phone call and he must now leave... Do you put in your tank and play it out with him with this holding?

Solksjaer

Ok laugh at me if you will, but what the hell does EV mean? Earnings value to your bet? How does it differ from Pot Odds? Is it a statistical measure of how your hand will perform/earn + or - over an expected curve? ( I know should be a different thread question but I'm hiding my ignorance in this one)

Perhaps a link?

Thanks

This poker stuff ain't half turning me into a geek type person but I must say between this and darts the ol indoor games don't half do wonders for the ol Maths! Poker and Darts should be on the primary school syllabus

Marq

BigCityBanker wrote:

If BB had exactly the same sized stack as the button in this instance and declared that he was going all in blind as he had just received a phone call and he must now leave... Do you put in your tank and play it out with him with this holding?

No, because there is no need for me to risk my tournament life on a 52/48 shot. having said that I'm a sick gambler.

there is no chance of me being knocked on out on this hand as played, but there is a good chance of me accumulating chips without the risk of being knocked out myself, while also moving towards the final table with one of the best players at the table eliminated.

Your example above is utterly ridiculous, and doesn't even argue the same point as we're discussing here.

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

If BB had exactly the same sized stack as the button in this instance and declared that he was going all in blind as he had just received a phone call and he must now leave... Do you put in your tank and play it out with him with this holding?

This is completely different and there would be completely factors to put into the EV calculation. Basically what Marq said.

And Solksjaer, EV = Expected Value, Google will give you hundreds of links about it.

Gholimoli

Marq wrote:

No, because there is no need for me to risk my tournament life on a 52/48 shot. having said that I'm a sick gambler.

there is no chance of me being knocked on out on this hand as played, but there is a good chance of me accumulating chips without the risk of being knocked out myself, while also moving towards the final table with one of the best players at the table eliminated.

Your example above is utterly ridiculous, and doesn't even argue the same point as we're discussing here.

as Marq said BCB gave a silly example that does not resemble the situation in hand at all.
in one we go broke if we lose and are out of the game.
in the situation in hand this is not at all a facotr so how can they be compared.
i really dont understand the fuss about this .
YOUR HAND IS BETTER THAN A RANDOM HAND BUT YOU ARE UP AGAINST A RANDOM HAND.
there is no chance of you going broke and also SB is not a factor.
added to this the chance that BB may fold.
how can you argue about this?
tounrey life my ass.