Saturday

scojones

I'm just sticking with Newbury today, there's some great racing there and hopefully we'll be able to find some winners.

Newbury 1.35 Do me a favour and ignore the last two runs Jacks Craic had... reason being it was extremely unlucky and was hampered. Now look at the form of it in the seven races before that. It has won carrying 11-12 at Newbury. That race was when I started backing this horse, and it won again next time out at a big price at Aintree coming from last to first. It was about 12 or 16 lenghts off the leaders that day coming around the turn in and flew through them all to win comfortably. It's out again tomorrow at Newbury, and should really be fresh enough. Providing it doesn't get hampered and hasn't lost its confidence I cannot see it being beaten. All it needs to do is reproduce the form it showed last season. NB

Newbury 2.40 Vodka Bleu is really over priced at 10/1. Turpin Green is currently favourite for demolishing Exotic Dancer last time out but that was Extoic Dancers first run since breaking its pelvis and that form is very very misleading. Last time out Vodka Bleu hadn't ran in quite some time, and even though Pipe really did well to have it prepared as good as he did I still think it needed the run which is why I sided with Exotic Dancer on the day. Because of this, Vodka Bleu has the form to win this race and 10-7 is very generous. I'll be having an e/w bet on Vodka Bleu because of the price, and wouldn't be surprised if Turpin Green finished second to it. I might throw a fiver on the forecast for a laugh. NAP

Newbury 3.15 Butlers Cabin is another horse out at Newbury coming from Exotic Dancer's form. It was badly hampered and still managed to finish forth. While it is up alot in the weights in comparison to what it carried last time out, it has won carrying this weight before. I expect it to run a big one again, and if it doesn't win it should go close. I think it's currently 9/2 with PP. I will be very interested to see what its mark is once the RP site is updated. Beat Made in Montot impressively in October.

Newbury 2.45 Afsoun is another one of my horses to follow this season, along with Jacks Craic. I have really really high hopes for it and if it doesn't win this I will still be following. It's anyones guess as to how fresh it is, or if it needs a run before showing its true potential but if it has progressed anything like Detroit City has then it should win this with ease.

00dyel

I know a reasonable amount on horse racing but would love some tips for tommorows racing- anywhere will do but preferably at newbury.

At the moment i am going to do Jacks Craic and Vodka Bleu. Are these wise choices or are there others that will beat them. If you know any horses please let me know. Last time i followed tips from this forum i won so would love some more please. Thanks in advance.

Pighead

Evening sjones, as you know Pigheads a complete novice when it comes to horse racing but I was just confused regarding Vodka Bleus chances. Looking at the form through my rookie specs it seems he failed to last the distance last week over 2 1/2 miles.

Tomorrows race is over 3 Miles 2 which would seem to suggest is way beyond him. How come he has a chance tomorrow? Is it simply because hes carrying less weight, is the opposition not as good or does he love Newbury?

Also Presenting Express was very good to me last season (until he unseated his rider whilst going for 4 in a row and cost me a rather large accumulator) and I see he's 14/1 tomorrow. Any chance of a top 3 finish?

scojones

00dyel wrote:

I know a reasonable amount on horse racing but would love some tips for tommorows racing- anywhere will do but preferably at newbury.

At the moment i am going to do Jacks Craic and Vodka Bleu. Are these wise choices or are there others that will beat them. If you know any horses please let me know. Last time i followed tips from this forum i won so would love some more please. Thanks in advance.

My only worry is the weather. If the ground goes any softer than it is then it might go against both of them. Both Jacks Craic and Vodka Bleu have solid e/w chances in my opinion... but that's all it is, my opinion. If I was never wrong then I wouldn't be here! If I was you I wouldn't be backing horses blindly though, that's a very dangerous game.

Pighead wrote:

Evening sjones, as you know Pigheads a complete novice when it comes to horse racing but I was just confused regarding Vodka Bleus chances. Looking at the form through my rookie specs it seems he failed to last the distance last week over 2 1/2 miles.

Tomorrows race is over 3 Miles 2 which would seem to suggest is way beyond him. How come he has a chance tomorrow? Is it simply because hes carrying less weight, is the opposition not as good or does he love Newbury?

Also Presenting Express was very good to me last season (until he unseated his rider whilst going for 4 in a row and cost me a rather large accumulator) and I see he's 14/1 tomorrow. Any chance of a top 3 finish?

How are ya Pighead!
I don't think it was a case of it not getting the distance, it was a case of it being off for too long. There is a question as to whether two tough races in quick succession (sp?) after such a long time off might be too tough for it but Vodka Bleu is tough as old boots. Look through its form, it has had no problem getting 3 mile in the past, I don't see why 3 mile 2 should be any different providing Cheltenham didn't take too much out of it. Think of it this way mate, if Exotic Dancer wasn't in the race last time out would you still be saying it didn't get the distance? Coming second after such a long break in Cheltenham just shows how good this horse is. If the ground doesn't go any worse than Soft then it has a cracking chance. It's off a nice enough mark tomorrow and providing it isn't too wrecked after the race in Cheltenham then there is no reason it shouldn't at least be placed.

We have yet to see what Presenting Express is capable of. It did very badly when being bumped up in class and made mistakes all over the place before being pulled up. It had two nice enough wins in its last two races and is a nice each way bet for sure.

00dyel

thanks sjones for that advice- if it was to come up soft then who would advise to go for in those 2 races? Also do you have any real fancies in any races?

masterK

Pighead wrote:

Evening sjones, as you know Pigheads a complete novice when it comes to horse racing but I was just confused regarding Vodka Bleus chances. Looking at the form through my rookie specs it seems he failed to last the distance last week over 2 1/2 miles.

Tomorrows race is over 3 Miles 2 which would seem to suggest is way beyond him. How come he has a chance tomorrow? Is it simply because hes carrying less weight, is the opposition not as good or does he love Newbury?

The one thing you are overlooking is the fact it was Vodka Bleu's first race in 2 years so it is no surprise he tired close home, I also think Murphy sent him for home way too soon. He has form over 3 miles and on soft ground, the step up to 3m2 is a slight unknown but at 11/1 to win and 11/4 to be place on Betfair there are plenty more worse bets out there.

He's also due to go up 6lb in the handicap after tomorrow.

Pighead

Cheers sjones, and here was me thinking I'd narrowed the field down to 3 possible winners, ah well back to square one. Might just throw a few quid e/w on both Vodka Bleu and Presenting Express (and maybe even a very cheeky rfc!)

Crumbs

Pighead wrote:

Also Presenting Express was very good to me last season (until he unseated his rider whilst going for 4 in a row and cost me a rather large accumulator) and I see he's 14/1 tomorrow. Any chance of a top 3 finish?

Back in March, Presenting Express beat a horse called Parsons Legacy by 7 lengths carrying 13lbs less than him. Tomorrow, Presenting Express carries 5lbs more than Parsons Legacy. They both have outside chances but I know which one I'd prefer. Preacher Boy's form also ties in nicely here.

Regarding Vodka Bleu, I remember being at Leopardstown to see him winning his debut nearly 4 years ago. (I remember it well because I had a large wager on the 2nd.) Since then, I've followed Vodka Bleu closely and while I think it's unfair to say he failed to get the 2m5f distance last time, I agree that it's right to question his stamina for tomorrow's race. It'll be testing ground and he's done nothing to suggest that he would prefer a trip like this. I certainly wouldn't rule him out but I'm not going to be backing him.

I find it hard to get away from State Of Play. He looked to have so much in hand at Aintree in his impressive win last April and coupled with natural improvement, his 17lbs ratings hike shouldn't stop him from going close. I also think the top-weight, Cornish Rebel, will be placed.

masterK

2:05 Newbury Ingles Drever NB

If Ingles Drever is fit he should gobble this lot up for breakfast, the betting will be the key on him since he's been off so long injured. He looks a class above anything in the field, proven over course, distance and ground.

2:40 Newbury Mongermot, Bothar Na(ew)

When I was looking at this race and seeing the forecasted really soft going I thought to myself you really want something that stays, goes in a bog, has some class and is open to improvement and Mongermot jumped off the page waving both hands in the air saying pick me. The only concern is how fit he is after his break, in saying that one would think if connections wanted any race to ease him they could of found an easier race.

He finsished 41 lengths in front of Idle Talk at Lingfield in testing conditions early this year, considering Idle Talks progress since then that looks some performance.

My outsider for the race is Bothar Na who I've already backed for the Aintree National at fancy prices. He ran a blinder until he fell behind Beef or Salmon and War of Attrition at Down Royal, stays forever and will relish the going, at 33/1 on betfair he's an insance price. It's also interesing that Willie Mullins sends him over and Conor O'Dwyer makes the trip to ride.

If the going doesn't get too soft then I also wouldn't be surprised to Vodka Bleu run a big race.

3:15 Newbury Gallant Approach

Gallant Approach is a real progressive animal who has only ever run 5 times, 2 of those over fences in which he finished 1st and 2nd.

Considering he finished 17 lengths in front of 123 rated Bob the Builder conceding a stone and only 5 behind Napolitain also conceding weight him mark of 132 looks very generous.

3:00 Newcastle Bob Bob Bobbin

A tight pick between Bob Bob Bobbin and Neptunes Collognes, but Bob Bob Bobbin just shades it. He's ran well in some really hot company including when leaving Idle Talk, The Listener and Crozan a distance behind in a top novice race last year. He's proven over 3 miles and on good ground although wouldn't mind a drop of rain.

3:30 Newcastle Straw Bear NAP

If there's a dark horse for the champion hurdle the Straw Bear is it. Ran well at the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown festivals he looks one to go on to better things. He's already destroyed his main market rival Desert Quest at Aintree. ALso has a good record fresh. It's also interesting the AP McCoy swerves Newbury to ride him.

Tush

Pipe horses have not done to well so far this season either,as Pipe standards go.

knighted_1

heres my tuppence worth for the henessy

still havent had any serious bets yet this season but a horse that stands out to me tomorrow is ross comm available to back at up to 47s on betfair 28s and 33s in the bookies way overpriced for a horse who has won on the distance ground nicely weighted and the trainer can put them out and robbie power travels over for the one ride i will be backing him each way if no withdrawals there are 4 places up for grabs

i think there is value here

knighted_1

ap mccoy has three mounts 2moro short priced treble

Tush

Claymore 3.15 Newbury

Ground wont be a problem,yard are getting a few winners,fitness is a slight concern,but must have a sound e/w shout if fit.

Kindlelight Debut 2.35 Lingfield

Ran a cracker in listed class lto over c/d only beaten just over a length,a run like that tomorrow would see him go close.

Eva Soneva So Fast 3.40 Lingfield (NAP)

Shaped well lto running on late in the day so the extra furlong will suit,J Quinn rides again and he is a good A/W Jockey.




Good Luck.

00dyel

is this a good idea?
a win super yankee
Inglis Drever
Gallant Approach
Straw Bear
Montgermont
Afsoun

RedPeppers

1.25 Newcastle Aces Four On paper this looks like a two horse race but Im in favour of the selection because: Excellent jumping display on chase debut. Ferdy Murphy has always said he is best at 3m which he gets today. Ultra consistent and a previous course winner(lto). His main rival Garde Champetre was far from convincing last time over fences and has never gone beyond 2m 5f.

3.15 Newbury Made In Montot. This one caught my attention after he was tipped here and won back in April. Second on reappearance where he was giving Butlers Cabin 18lbs (only 6lbs today) an only beaten 5lengths. The other three principle dangers all lack a recent run. Will go on the ground, should be much sharper today and with Ruby up for P nicholls Im happy to back this one.

I also agree with you masterK Straw Bear looks to have a super chance of landing the odds in the 3.30 Newbury.

gamb1or

sjones wrote:

Newbury 3.15 Butlers Cabin is another horse out at Newbury coming from Exotic Dancer's form. It was badly hampered and still managed to finish forth. While it is up alot in the weights in comparison to what it carried last time out, it has won carrying this weight before. I expect it to run a big one again, and if it doesn't win it should go close. I think it's currently 9/2 with PP. I will be very interested to see what its mark is once the RP site is updated. Beat Made in Montot impressively in October.

Seconded

The step down in class cancels out the weight hike.

BobbyD10

I would say Ruby's mount will finish in front of the Cabin, but a tricky race all the same.

wb

My NAP for today is Saintsaire in the 1:35 at Newbury. Here are 8 reasons why:

1. Blindly backing the favourite in (handicap) Chases at Newbury over the last 5 seasons produces a nice profit.

2. Nicholls' yard have a profitable record at Newbury over the last 5 seasons.

3. Nicholls' yard are in decent form overall lately.

4. Ruby Walsh has a good profitable record at Newbury

5. At 10 stone 11lbs, this horse has been treated very well by the handicapper.

6. Saintsaire is top of the Racing Post ratings.

7. Saintsaire is proven on this course.

8. Saintsaire is proven on this distance.



Phew!... after all that.. watch it lose :eek:

wb

Regarding Straw Bear (3:30 Newc) ....... Please dont shoot me.... but ...I'm going to lay it :eek:

Instead, I think Desert Quest is the one to be on:

- Richards' yard has being doing well of late
- Top of the RP ratings
- Proven on the course
- Proven on the distance
- Good timer, top of the Topspeed ratings
- Suited to the Ground


For me it's:

1. Lay Straw Bear @ 2.86 (backers stake 5 points)
2. Back Desert Quest to win @ 3.85 (10 points)
3. Back Desert Quest to be placed @ 1.59 (20 points)

fade2black

Ok....Mr WB. I think you have it thw wrong way around. Desert Quest is the lay and Straw Bear is the NAP. First off I'm not sure what the Richard's yard has to do with his form we'll put that down to the 4:22am post time. You say he's suited by the ground but Desert Quest has never won on heavy ground so I'd have to argue with ya there. According to the box in the corner of my living room it's bucketing down in newcastle and has been all night. The ground is going to be softish and this will suit Straw Bear a lot more than it will Desert Quest (who's had a couple too many runs this year for a Champion hurdle hopeful in my opinion).

Straw Bear has won on soft and heavy ground so the more rain the better but I love the form of his last race at Aintree....Conna Castle, Senorita Rumbelita, Wanango, Moon Over Miami and even Desert Quest all recent winners, and all wel behind that day. All of this, to me, says that I'm not going to shoot you WB but I will be opposing you, big style.

wb

I'm not sure what the Richard's yard has to do with his form we'll put that down to the 4:22am post time.

How dare you! The reason I was posting so late is because I was working on an essay, and has nothing whatsover to do with drinking a lot of red wine that is available in tescos at half price:p

My point is that Richads' yard is doing ok at the moment. I dont like backing horses from an out of form yard.

Regarding the ground, I was going on the RP guide, which had Good (very often unreliable:mad: ) With McCoy on board, Straw Bear has a fantastic chance, I do agree, but I think I'll stick to my guns. Its more an issue of value, (yep, that old argument!) and my percieved chances of each horse winning. I dont think 13/8 is good value for Straw Bear. I feel that the value on Desert Quest is especially good in the place market (3 to b placed in this 9 runner field)

fade2black

I'm still confused. Are you backing The French Furze?

scojones

RED wine.... RED? From Tesco? Are ye mad?

I'll be having a small e/w on A Glass in Thyne in the 3pm at Newcastle.

Tush

OK Lads here is a Tip from an online Tipster whom I have a three month free trial with just for to see how he goes,and the Tip I recieved for today,which he is basically saying "will not be beaten" and is his stongest bet of the month so far is Cesc in the 1.30.Just for fun I thought I would post it up to see how he gets on.
Dont forget lads "will not be beaten":rolleyes:
6/4 at the moment.

Genco

Had a sneaky fiver on that tip Tush - keep em coming if it looks worthwhile

steveymp@hotmai

Tush wrote:

OK Lads here is a Tip from an online Tipster whom I have a three month free trial with just for to see how he goes,and the Tip I recieved for today,which he is basically saying "will not be beaten" and is his stongest bet of the month so far is Cesc in the 1.30.Just for fun I thought I would post it up to see how he gets on.
Dont forget lads "will not be beaten":rolleyes:
6/4 at the moment.

They were right shame about sp but beggars can't be choosers;)

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

wb

My point is that Richads' yard is doing ok at the moment

Doh! Sorry FTB, I meant Nicholls' yard.

Must be someting to do with tescos finest red:eek:

Tush

ziggy67 wrote:

Well done Tush! Thanks i seen this late & only got evens.

*Off topic* How that professional tipster was able to pick out that short priced jolly was amazing wasn't it :rolleyes:

Truly amazing Ziggy,think I might subscribe now.:rolleyes: For anyone interested his next best is Dom d'Orgeval in the 2.05 Newbury.

Genco

As long as the tipsters surname doesnt rhyme with sticks I may stick the winnings on Dom D

wb

wb wrote:

My NAP for today is Saintsaire in the 1:35 at Newbury. Here are 8 reasons why:

1. Blindly backing the favourite in (handicap) Chases at Newbury over the last 5 seasons produces a nice profit.

2. Nicholls' yard have a profitable record at Newbury over the last 5 seasons.

3. Nicholls' yard are in decent form overall lately.

4. Ruby Walsh has a good profitable record at Newbury

5. At 10 stone 11lbs, this horse has been treated very well by the handicapper.

6. Saintsaire is top of the Racing Post ratings.

7. Saintsaire is proven on this course.

8. Saintsaire is proven on this distance.



Phew!... after all that.. watch it lose :eek:

Wins at 15/8. I took the slighlty higher price earlier of Just under 11/5 earlier this morning.

gamb1or

Damn it, forgot to back The Outlier there today

:eek: at it winning by 30 LENGTHS

steveymp@hotmai

The Ruby show so far today:eek:

iloveireland

58/1 TREBLE



3:45 AFSOUN 4.4/1

3:30 STRAW BEAR 2.32/1 - banker in of the day.

3:00 NEPTUNES COLLONGE 4.7/1

gamb1or

My old man got a tip just a minute ago for Kyllachy Storm

Runs in kempton at 4.50, source has got his fair share of winners in the past

seems to be money going on it too, its 5s now from 15/2


All weather fans may want to back it

Tush

Well in Crumbs on State Of Play,Tops.;)

00dyel

all going wrong for me
had winner with Inglis Drever but have since had 2 losers, Montgermont and Bob Bob Bobbin.

Crumbs

Crumbs wrote:

I find it hard to get away from State Of Play. He looked to have so much in hand at Aintree in his impressive win last April and coupled with natural improvement, his 17lbs ratings hike shouldn't stop him from going close.

Boooooooooooooooom!

Thanks Tush. Result never in doubt. Beautiful ride by Moloney the whole way around on a really nice horse.

In the Fighting Fifth, I've decided on Arcalis.

wb

Well done FTB, Desert Quest just could not handle the conditions in the end. Straw Bear was fantastic.

iloveireland

iloveireland wrote:

58/1 TREBLE



3:45 AFSOUN 4.4/1

3:30 STRAW BEAR 2.32/1 - banker in of the day.

3:00 NEPTUNES COLLONGE 4.7/1

LOOKING GOOD LADS EH

COME ON AFSOUN

steveymp@hotmai

iloveireland wrote:

58/1 TREBLE



3:45 AFSOUN 4.4/1

3:30 STRAW BEAR 2.32/1 - banker in of the day.

3:00 NEPTUNES COLLONGE 4.7/1

Sweating now M8 Good Luck;) I'm on Afsoun myself

Tush

iloveireland wrote:

LOOKING GOOD LADS EH

COME ON AFSOUN

Hope you havent put the mockers on it.

wb

Best of Luck iloveireland

Tipperarymike

best of luck lad,

fade2black

A lovely treble for ya. Well done

wb

58/1 in total

Well done Iloveireland. Great stuff

iloveireland

cheers lads i was watching it in running there. it drifted out to 6s thought he had lost it..i didnt have time to explain them but i felt very confident with them ealrlier.

15 euro on it

Tipperarymike

great result, fair play to you. Every punters dream that one

steveymp@hotmai

Well done m8 bet you have a wee hangover tomorrow;)

masterK

iloveireland wrote:

cheers lads i was watching it in running there. it drifted out to 6s thought he had lost it..i didnt have time to explain them but i felt very confident with them ealrlier.

15 euro on it

Well done, mick fitz did well, he must of been tempted to go after Grasp when it went for home?

Did you get those prices on Betfair and just put the winnings from one onto the others.

iloveireland

masterK wrote:

Well done, mick fitz did well, he must of been tempted to go after Grasp when it went for home?

Did you get those prices on Betfair and just put the winnings from one onto the others.

ye exactly - i started with a 15 euro bet.