First cold snap 31st October

darkman2

Now this is the type of thing we are looking for. That is a beautiful chart and should, at this stage, signal the first cold snap to occur next week. Temperatures generally in mid to high single figures during day time hours and the first, possibly significant frosts, at night.:)

Ruu_Old

Around the 5 Celcius mark in loverly Illinois today with the wind chill at 0C.

darkman2

Ruu wrote:

Around the 5 Celcius mark in loverly Illinois today with the wind chill at 0C.

The really cold air should start its slow transit South across the plains of the US in the next few weeks. ATM we are expecting a cold one this year.:)

Dundalk Daily

Great post from Darkman, excellent.

Trogdor

is it possible for some snow in the wicklow mountains next week, with a north-easterly, it could blow in a few showers.

CrowdedHouse

.....and this is something to be happy about

Snowbie

trogdor wrote:

is it possible for some snow in the wicklow mountains next week, with a north-easterly, it could blow in a few showers.

Now there is still residual warmth left over around Europe even up North(scandanavia)and SST (sea surface temps) are still highish both in the North sea and the Irish sea, which is good for convection to start but will not be cold enough for any snow even in that airstream atm.

Still a distance off to be accurate at this time.But nonetheless if it where to happen its a very early start to the season and will chill things down further North in the airstream which is good to get rid of what heat that is left.

Gonzo

metcheck are going for 5 to 7C for Dublin next Thursday (I dont think it will be as cold as that) and only 2 to 3C in Aberdeen with snow showers. We wont get any snow but its certainly a very early start for hopefully a sign of things to come. Maybe we mite get some frost.

darkman2

Goes to show what is possible this time of year:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn18017.png

Snowbie

Mid october 2003 also had a chilly spell iirc.

Danno

Time to order the ol' kerosene me thinks, prices will rocket after next week if this comes off.

Snowbie

A big question mark over this cold snap next week.It is not suppose to make its way further south than Scotland.It will become cooler and the amount of rain expected to fall will be of greater concern than how potent this NEly will be.The next couple of days are vital.

Kashkai

Snowbie wrote:

A big question mark over this cold snap next week.It is not suppose to make its way further south than Scotland.It will become cooler and the amount of rain expected to fall will be of greater concern than how potent this NEly will be.The next couple of days are vital.

Forget the cold weather

Give me a tropical beach, a hot woman and a cold pint of cider anyday:D

mike65

Just saw the RTE farming weather slot, they have the plunge marked down for Friday on. After the mild weather, it'll be a shock

Mike.

Snowbie

Forecasting beyond 3 or 4 days should be taken with a pinch of salt.Up to 7 days and its just wrong.Weather is so fickle in this country that it would not take long to change to something completely opposite(to put it in laymans terms).

Now i didnt see the weather for the week ahead but this abstract i have read on Metcheck,is it something new to watch for next weekend or will it change like our potential cold spell that is not now likely on Thursday,but Friday...Sat...Sun... and so on??.

Usually, the UK experiences a 'weather pattern' change once every four weeks. At present, the situation is high pressure just to the East of the country, however into this week and something quite strange happens.

All the models are suggesting a return to wet and windy weather as the week progresses, however the final destination of the low will dictate whether next weekend brings the UK its first taste of Winter or not.

The US GFS model brings a screaming Northerly to the UK as early as next Sunday as the low pushes into Scandinavia, however it's out on a limb on this one. UK Met Office and ECMWF models show the low stalling to the North with another area of low pressure rattling in quickly from the South-west.

OK, so who do we believe? Well the GFS has a history of over doing the Northerly scenarios. However, it also has excellent model handling of the US and Canadian weather thanks to its NAM model which provides lots of information to the GFS model. It's this one fact, which means that the GFS is likely to win on this one. The handling of a low pressure area which pushes across Manitoba in Canada on Wednesday will dictate how intense the Greenland High becomes. It's this intensity which then dictates how cold it's likely to become next weekend.

Ok so its 7 days away and sounds good but i will not hold my breath on this one.(again room for change)
Thursday at the earliest would confirm a higher % than now.
It would be nice to get rid of this mild weather untill at least next April though.

Snowbie

Latest charts have now sugggested that the cold for next week will only stay up around the North of Scotland.So it looks like the Atlantic weather will win out for this week.Rain,wind and mild.:(

mike65

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html no winter any time soon.

Mike.

Strasser

Its only October and we have already had a teaser of a cold weather set up in fantasy island only for it to disappear subsequently. I have been watching this pattern over and over now for 2 years or more, it really is making me weary. I think I shall give up and only look up the charts once I see snow flakes falling outside the window.

Supercell

mike65 wrote:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html no winter any time soon.

Mike.

All I'll say is good!!

Last year iirc we had a few flakes in November here in Dublin and was it for the whole flippin' winter!

I've high hopes for this one (and have had for the last two years..), as long as we are getting exceptional anything I'm happy.
Today has been warm and sunny here, t-shirt weather..now thats in 21st of October!! Exceptional it is.

I'd be more concerned if it was boring cool breezy and sweater weather - its anything but!!

This winter will be interesting i'm sure!

darkman2

Hi everyone, things will become colder later next week as a, as yet undetermined northerly in terms of longevity becomes established and an associated GH exerts some influence. This will lead to a noticeable reduction in temperatures and night time frosts. Some showers also. Temperatures will remain relatively benign until then before dropping back to mid - high single figures.:)

Trogdor

Certainly starting to paint a colder picture now

mike65

A westerly coming through tonight should boost the low temp right now.

Mike.

fatherdougalmag

Chilly dip over the next couple of days?

ninebeanrows

We will have a relatively cold spell of weather.

But the outlook in the longterm for cold weather is pretty dire.

mike65

Bright & cool from Tuesday to the weekend. Good! I washed my car today

Mike.

Snowbie

Nice crisp days ahead this week with little or no wind from midweek,luckily the HP is building down from the North which means a lot of bright cool days and cold and frosty nights.

If on the other hand Hp built from the south an anitcyclonic gloom case scenario we would have,meaning quite uniform temps both by day and night as a blanket of cloud would hover with no wind and weakening sun to disperse it.November is a typical month for this.Not during this week though.

Trogdor

GFS hinting at a colder end to the month, quiter similar to last year
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3843.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn38417.png

Snowbie

Looks good alright,Identical to last year.
Pinch of salt though.This is a long way off.

Supercell

mike65 wrote:

Bright & cool from Tuesday to the weekend. Good! I washed my car today

Mike.

And it didn't start this morning!!, at least it didn't get dirty

Supercell

Snowbie wrote:

Looks good alright,Identical to last year.
Pinch of salt though.This is a long way off.

Nothing like last year please.

Last year we had some snow here in November and that was it for the feckin' winter.

This year ice cover and snow cover to our north is far more substantial than last year..this winter has potential written all over it..

Lets not be having silly cold that blows out chances before then!!*
























Cold now may or may not have any baring on cold later, am just a balance believer..don't blow our snow quota in November please mother nature!

Snowbie

This year ice cover and snow cover to our north is far more substantial than last year..this winter has potential written all over it..

Lets not be having silly cold that blows out chances before then!!*

Is that a contradiction or what:eek:
Using substantial,potential and then lets not be having.......
Its either your for it or against it.:p