Early Winter Cold spells/snaps up to 31/12/06

Snowbie · 05-11-2006 8:29pm #1

Continue to post here on forthcoming cold peroids during early winter up to the end of December.

Please post your low temps in the appropiate thread found [thread=2055010225]here.[/thread]

Keep your posts on topic here and discuss a forecast for a possible/potential up and coming winter event be it cold/wind/frost/ice or snow.

A thread will/can be created for snow if and when the time comes and not before the first snow has fallen and then post in thereafter for every snow event.This is to keep our forum tidy.

Thanks.:)

darkman2 · 07-11-2006 8:26pm

I like the ECM and GFS tonight:D

Snowbie · 07-11-2006 8:43pm

Hey DM can you post the links for all to see.

Thanks.:)

lucernarian · 07-11-2006 10:14pm

I'd say it's because of this:
GFS charts for Saturday Night

It's nothing short of amazing to see such a high-powered cyclone migrate south for the winter:D

The charts however continue the progression to the south-east and it stalls in Scandanavia anyway.

In over 4 days, a lot could still happen but it's just a tempter for the moment.

Snowbie · 07-11-2006 11:06pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I'd say it's because of this:
GFS charts for Saturday Night

It's nothing short of amazing to see such a high-powered cyclone migrate south for the winter:D

The charts however continue the progression to the south-east and it stalls in Scandanavia anyway.

In over 4 days, a lot could still happen but it's just a tempter for the moment.

Now that looks like that "Day after the next day thingy film" you know the one when it gets cold.Is that shot taken from that film.:D

Looks a nice storm coming from the North alright,this came outa nowhere,be interesting if the next run where same.But i doubt it.

07-11-2006 11:41pm

darkman2 wrote:

I like the ECM and GFS tonight:D

Yeah it would be mad crack if it was january.

Snowbie · 08-11-2006 1:04am

From a few runs,a potential cool/cold spell from this sunday.Still a way off atm but looks like turning a lot cooler at present.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1325.png

darkman2 · 08-11-2006 1:10pm

Hi

Im not actually talking about Saturday or Sunday - the following week looks far more interesting. Will post charts later.

Although it will certainly be colder at the weekend.:)

Snowbie · 08-11-2006 5:01pm

Yeah DM,A short cold plunge on Sunday then milder for a time and next week looks like cold atm but in FI territory.

darkman2 · 08-11-2006 8:23pm

Snowbie wrote:

Yeah DM,A short cold plunge on Sunday then milder for a time and next week looks like cold atm but in FI territory.

It is FI and is subject to change, I agree. Potential for colder weather. Not snow or anything like that but something more seasonal:)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006110812!!chart.gif

Just an example at 168hrs. If its not there tomorrow just ignore:)

Snowbie · 09-11-2006 1:51am

metcheck wrote:

High pressure once again building across the UK during Thursday bringing a settled, cool and sunny day for many areas, however a big change is on the cards.

Over the next couple of days, a large upper ridge builds over the country. To the West of this, a marked trough is waiting in the wings, ready to bring another blast of chilly air Southwards across the UK this weekend.

This trough, is the wake up call for Winter. It's the change which develops into a series of complex upper lows to the North of the UK over the coming fortnight.

So, enjoy the next few days. November is likely to show us all that Winter can come in all shapes and sizes for the UK.

Agree or disagree? Will it be a repeat performance from last year?.
A tease of winter now and nothing till feb/march?
Or is it a sign of things to come?,
So far its an avg month,was expected to be above avg regarding temps.

darkman2 · 10-11-2006 6:42pm

Snowbie wrote:

Agree or disagree? Will it be a repeat performance from last year?.
A tease of winter now and nothing till feb/march?
Or is it a sign of things to come?,
So far its an avg month,was expected to be above avg regarding temps.

The charts are encouraging atm however that forcast may be premature. Temperatures look to go below average for a time but how long it stays like that is anyones guess. We will have to see over the next couple of days whether the GH can maintain a block allowing a sustained northerly/northwesterly flow. Or the block could be too far west, in which case the cold air runs harmlessly into the Atlantic. Its still very early days.

Snowbie · 10-11-2006 8:44pm

Well tbh DM that euro high has to be displaced for any type cold event from the North.
Untill then every cold airmass from polar regions will be deflected to Norway and down central europe leaving us in this mild moist atlantic flow.

Trogdor · 11-11-2006 2:09pm

The 06z run is certainly showing the colder air filtering in on friday night,
Friday 24:00
rart_06111806_1106.gif?27b95289c5d86261b0a015791f54cd50

Saturday 06:00
rart_06111806_1106.gif?27b95289c5d86261b0a015791f54cd50

Trogdor · 13-11-2006 11:42pm

Cold Ahoy, that's more like it
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/96_30.gif

ninebeanrows · 13-11-2006 11:58pm

Yep interesting, a strange set-up with cold dragged in on a westerly...

Friday is a day to watch with potential mountain snow across Ireland...

And those charts show interesting maxima.

Should be a cold day..

lets keep any eye eh;)

darkman2 · 14-11-2006 2:40am

We will see, snow is inevitable though on the 18z:

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

14-11-2006 10:52am

Not quite so inevitable on this mornings runs though.

Personally I never get too stuck on the possibility of a decent snowfall untill at least mid to late December.From there on in,the source of the cold air,wherever it comes from, is at or getting towards its coldest and ergo has the most effect if it gets here.

Villain · 14-11-2006 11:44am

Met are going for Sleet/Snow on high ground Friday with wintry showers Saturday, temps for Sunday look to be very low.

Snowbie · 14-11-2006 11:54am

We are dealing with a complex LP,any deviation on its track can have a impact on how mild/cool/cold it will get.If snow where to fall it will be on the mountain tops but it is still early to predict what outcome we are to get.
Nice to see if it were to happen,it will be a succesive novembers at which snow were to fall or forecast.

December is a month were the last of the autumn warmth still hangs on and needs a cold blast to get rid of this residual warmth,this week will help if it goes to plan.
Our first real cold blast usually happens mid to late December,but no-one knows for sure.There is a lot of cold air pooling and flirting with us up north.This would be very interesting if it where sucked southwards.

Snowbie · 14-11-2006 12:25pm

The GFS[FI] for next week has a building siberian HP going retro as well as a possible Greenland block coming into the picture.This is far away atm.

ninebeanrows · 14-11-2006 2:05pm

6z is interesting again,

Friday and Saturday depended on the track of the LP will be cold and potentially with snow over mountains. Saturday on the 6z see's maxima of 4c a chilling change from of late.

Villain · 14-11-2006 11:17pm

18z seems to show its going to cold Friday and Saturday alright with sleet and snow on high ground: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn9617.png

ninebeanrows · 14-11-2006 11:26pm

Friday Maxima - Going to be a shock to the system!

darkman2 · 14-11-2006 11:59pm

A definate risk of snow to low levels. Something to keep an eye on.....

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

Scubadevils · 15-11-2006 12:23am

I spent the last three months without broadband and come back tonight to find cold looming

Another rollercoaster winter ahead no doubt.

Trogdor · 15-11-2006 12:30am

darkman2 wrote:

A definate risk of snow to low levels. Something to keep an eye on.....

http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

I thought last nights run was good, but this is even better.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/66_30.gif:D

Edit:Not updated to the 18z run yet, but metcheck's forecast looks good:D, maximum of 2 all day with sleet and snow
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Dublin&day=3

ninebeanrows · 15-11-2006 9:30am

Friday and Saturday looking cold wet and potentially very windy.

Temps of just 1-4c on Saturday on the 0z but the tracking of the LP across Ireland is very uncertain at this moment.

Potential for snow is there especially i reckon in the east mids.

darkman2 · 15-11-2006 10:19am

Weathercheck wrote:

Friday and Saturday looking cold wet and potentially very windy.

Temps of just 1-4c on Saturday on the 0z but the tracking of the LP across Ireland is very uncertain at this moment.

Potential for snow is there especially i reckon in the east mids.

Im still not entirely convinced however if that run came off it would I think bring snow to most places even down to sea level.

Villain · 15-11-2006 10:26am

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/78_30.gif

Looks like anyone up the Wicklow mountains might see some real white stuff. However I would be very surprised if anything other than sleet was to fall at sea level.

Going to be cold though, bloody cold.

Snowbie · 15-11-2006 10:27am

I cant really see the daytime minima being lower than 6c here in Dublin on friday.Any snow reserved for the highest mountains.

EDIT:Just saw the charts etc,becoming a wind event will certainly make it a lot colder(wind chill).Im still not convinced that temps will be struggling to get above freezing as these are guestimates from those charts.

Early Winter Cold spells/snaps up to 31/12/06

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