Heat to return after short blip?

darkman2

Hi, you may have noticed that the depressions to the west never quite seem to make good progress over the next few days. Now it appears that the models are gearing us up for yet another period of very warm and settled weather. This recycling of the high is very unusual for us and the last time it happened was 1995. Anyhow its still a bit out so best to concentrate on possible storm development and higher temperatures for today at present.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

byrnep

I think we get freak summer every 10 years or so...1995, 1983, 1976...so we're due another one..maybe a litle bit simplistic but hey, the sun is shining.

layke

We always get good summers, we just tend to be in work for most of the nice days. As fate would have it, rain on weekends.

darkman2

layke wrote:

We always get good summers, we just tend to be in work for most of the nice days. As fate would have it, rain on weekends.

Its funny cause its true:D

Gonzo

our summers definitely seem to be getting better recently.. even if there not entirely sunny they've been getting generally warmer. Ive alot more faith in us having a decent summer than a decent winter.

darkman2

This is quite remarkable, we have not seen a recycling pattern like this since1995. Im 100% sure of that.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

yaledo

darkman2: can you explain that diagram a little: what is being shown by the colours (between 476 and 600)

Gonzo

temps are expected to stay around 25C till next wednesday I think

darkman2

yaledo wrote:

darkman2: can you explain that diagram a little: what is being shown by the colours (between 476 and 600)

Thats a pressure chart. The different colours represent high level pressue (500hps), basically the redder it is, the better for Sunny weather. T means low pressure, H is high pressure.

highdef

OK, slightly off topic but could all tie in with the current and future weather. On the train home a few minutes, I looked out the window at Howth Junction & Donaghmede and there were literally 100's and 100's of seagulls flying aimlessly around. Got off at Bayside and there were still 100's to be seen in all directions. Well obviously 1000's at this stage. Looking out my window now, they are still flying around in all direction as far as I can see. Never saw anything like it. Maybe they can sense the rain on the way!!!

Snowbie, you should be able to see all these gulls!!

Snowbie

highdef wrote:

OK, slightly off topic but could all tie in with the current and future weather. On the train home a few minutes, I looked out the window at Howth Junction & Donaghmede and there were literally 100's and 100's of seagulls flying aimlessly around. Got off at Bayside and there were still 100's to be seen in all directions. Well obviously 1000's at this stage. Looking out my window now, they are still flying around in all direction as far as I can see. Never saw anything like it. Maybe they can sense the rain on the way!!!

Snowbie, you should be able to see all these gulls!!

Flying on the thermals i guess,lots of them allright

darkman2

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500


Very good and warm charts there:)

jd

Are we looking for^H^H^H at a repeat next week? Won't the temperatures be starting from a higher base??
jd

darkman2

jd wrote:

Are we looking for^H^H^H at a repeat next week? Won't the temperatures be starting from a higher base??
jd

I dont think it will be this hot but looks to warm up again nicely after the temperature fall back to low twenties for the weekend:)

yaledo

but 1 hectoPascal = 1 milliBar; the normal range for atmospheric pressure at sea level is roughly 940 to 1040 hPa... This is shown on that chart with isobars (white contour lines)... What is being shown by the coloured areas ranging from 476 to 600?
Between Wikipedia & Google, my best guess is:
"geopotential altitude of the 500 hPa isobaric surface" But that's just a guess, nor do I know what it means.
Any idea?

darkman2

Your right,The dark grey dashed lines gives the forecast temperature at 500hPa height.

The colour shading is used to show the 500hPa height (or altitude, same thing) (Numbers are on the key on the right hand side of a chart). The level of 500 hPa is roughly dividing the mass of the atmosphere in two. It lies near 5km, and its height is normally analysed at intervals of 40 or 80m, corresponding to MSLP isobars at intervals of 5 or 10 hPa. The 'thicker' (i.e the 'redder') the airmass over you is, the stronger and deeper the area of hp and the less cloud there will be at high levels (little disturbance):)

yaledo

Thanks

mike65

Whatever about the return of hot air, I'm glad its actually fresh right now. May it continue for as long as possible.

Mike.

Gonzo

still got to 24c here today tho and the bbc is going for 25 to 29C again for Ireland end of next week

ninebeanrows

Have a good couple of weeks folks and hopefully the heat
wont be too intense down in southeast France!;)

I love u all:D

Supercell

Enjoy the holiday WC, you lucky so and so

Back on topic, does anyone know if we are heading towards monthly record territory for sunshine and mean temperature?. I see the english CET is currently running at record levals.
I cant remember a summer with so many sunny and hot days in my lifetime.

Calibos

Longfield wrote:

.........I cant remember a summer with so many sunny and hot days in my lifetime.

Didn't know you were only 10 years old Longfield? Now run along young man and buy yourself an ice cream at the shop cause tonight us grown ups are gonna party like its Nineteen Ninety Five.

Supercell

Hehe, if only!!, 1995 was a long time ago though and I probably was more concerned about spots and looking cool in school than the weather!

Supercell

Yoikes that would have been '85 !, erm '95 - probably was the beginning of alcohol damage to the little grey cells, also I worked that summer in Munich and that WAS bloody hot!

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

Back on topic, does anyone know if we are heading towards monthly record territory for sunshine and mean temperature?. I see the english CET is currently running at record levals.
I cant remember a summer with so many sunny and hot days in my lifetime.

Probably not for sunshine as the first 12 days or so were fairly poor, but then the only stats I have are for my station as Met Eireann don't keep a running total on their website. Saying that, it is already my sunniest July on record, only because the previous 2 Julys' here were so poor.

As for temperature
Station - mean for July - Max with year - Mean this month to 22nd
Belmullet - 14.0 - 16.6(1995) - 15.8
Birr - 14.9 - 18.1(1983) - 17.3
Casement - 14.9 - 17.8(83) - 17.2
Clones - 14.5 - 17.6(89) - 17.3
Cork AP - 14.9 - 17.9(83) - 16.4
Dublin AP - 15.1 - 17.9(89) - 16.4
Kilkenny - 15.2 - 18.2(83) - N/A
Malin Head - 13.8 - 15.8(95) - 15.8
Mullingar - 14.7 - 17.4(89) - N/A
Rosslare - 15.0 - 17.0(89) - 16.6
Shannon - 15.7 - 18.8(83) - 17.6
Valentia - 14.8 - 17.2(83) - 16.4

Looks like it could be close for a couple of stations. Malin Head quite likely. It really depends more on night time minima than daytime max. It's been a few low minima earlier in month that has stopped mean temp from breaking records.

Mothman

Just looking at max monthly sunshine figures for July (Since 1958) and they are not as high as I expected.
So yes some of those records must be under threat.
Despite a fairly poor first 12 days, my mean daily sunshine so far is 8.3 hours. If it continued at that for the remaining 8 days giving 257 hours, it would exceed the July record (since 1958) at all the synoptic stations bar Rosslare.

Note that days are getting shorter so it gets harder to make up the losses earlier in month. I must stress that I've no idea what the sunshine figures are for rest of country so far this month. If I had broadband I'd go through the daily stats for some of the stations.

Supercell

Thanks for the stats Mothman.

Definately think some sunshine records are under threat, Casement is continuing to see 25c maxes daily, going to be an interesting overall figure for there by the end of the week.

I notice that the three day forecast, which a couple of days ago, was saying a weekend washout has changed to some rain spreading north on saturday followed by fresher conditions on Sunday, am starting to think this breakdown is going to be a non event like the last one here with a day or two of temps in the low twenties range before they start becoming mid 20s again.

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

Thanks for the stats Mothman.

Definately think some sunshine records are under threat, Casement is continuing to see 25c maxes daily, going to be an interesting overall figure for there by the end of the week.

Yes 3 more days with about 10 hours each.

Whatever about mean temp, I think mean max records may tumble.
Usually during summer, I'm looking to see if temp will break 20C, well, the figure this month is more like 23 or even 24C.

My records go back to late 99. The highest mean max for any month is 21.2C in Aug 03. Next was Aug 04 with 20.6C, and then July 03 with 20.4C

This month so far inc today ..........22.6C

But there's more, my mean min so far this month 10.3C, which is still lower than the lowest mean min for July of 10.4C in 04. The mean so far is 16.5C which is higher than previous highest mean of 16.3C in both July and Aug 03.

So I could have records all round.

Supercell

So in essance a far more continental type weather setup..thats global warming for ya..haha WC is on hols so have free reign to promote the gobal warming did it all perspective

Seriously though, that Azores high..if it cames any further north it going to become an Icelandic High..Duffman says ohh yeah!!

Last year it camped off our west coast, this year its the northwest, am liking what i'm seeing.

Back to reality, I just want a decent nights sleep, my bedroom faces west and is like a furnace until about 0300 or so by which thankfully the nights are actually starting to cool unlike most Irish high humidity hot spells.

Mothman

Taking the stats above, I've added in red the mean to 25th.

As for temperature
Station - mean for July - Max with year - Mean this month to 22nd
Belmullet - 14.0 - 16.6(1995) - 15.8- 16.1
Birr - 14.9 - 18.1(1983) - 17.3 - 17.5
Casement - 14.9 - 17.8(83) - 17.2 - 17.4
Clones - 14.5 - 17.6(89) - 17.3 - 17.5
Cork AP - 14.9 - 17.9(83) - 16.4 - 16.4
Dublin AP - 15.1 - 17.9(89) - 16.4 - 16.6
Kilkenny - 15.2 - 18.2(83) - N/A - 17.4
Malin Head - 13.8 - 15.8(95) - 15.8 - 16.0
Mullingar - 14.7 - 17.4(89) - N/A - 16.8
Rosslare - 15.0 - 17.0(89) - 16.6 - 16.7
Shannon - 15.7 - 18.8(83) - 17.6 - 17.8
Valentia - 14.8 - 17.2(83) - 16.4 - 16.6

Mothman

Taking the stats above, I've added in red the mean to 28th.

As for temperature
Station - mean for July - Max with year - Mean this month to 22nd
Belmullet - 14.0 - 16.6(1995) - 15.8- 16.2
Birr - 14.9 - 18.1(1983) - 17.3 - 17.7
Casement - 14.9 - 17.8(83) - 17.2 - 17.7
Clones - 14.5 - 17.6(89) - 17.3 - 17.7
Cork AP - 14.9 - 17.9(83) - 16.4 - 16.5
Dublin AP - 15.1 - 17.9(89) - 16.4 - 16.9
Kilkenny - 15.2 - 18.2(83) - N/A - 17.6
Malin Head - 13.8 - 15.8(95) - 15.8 - 16.1
Mullingar - 14.7 - 17.4(89) - N/A - 17.0
Rosslare - 15.0 - 17.0(89) - 16.6 - 16.9
Shannon - 15.7 - 18.8(83) - 17.6 - N/A
Valentia - 14.8 - 17.2(83) - 16.4 - 16.6
__________________
Malin Head will be a probable highest mean since at least 1958,
Clones has a possibility and Casement is in with a shout.

With me, last night was mildest night this month with a min of 16.1C, and as a result the mean for today was well above average despite the max only reaching 21C.