Imminent pop or not?

Cantab.

Is the negative sentiment being brought on by the bitter old souls who missed the boat, or is the public concern (as conveyed on this board and in the media in general), in relation to house prices, genuine?

EKRIUQ

Yawn!,

Can we have a whole forum dedicated about the house market crashing. I'm off the bed now.

Bluehair

Valid Poll and should produce interesting results. Good series of options.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Cantab.

Bluehair wrote:

Valid Poll and should produce interesting results. Good series of options.

Thanks Bluehair.

I like the way 'crash' is in red too!

SkepticOne

Cantab. wrote:

Is the negative sentiment being brought on by the bitter old souls who missed the boat, or is the public concern (as conveyed on this board and in the media in general), in relation to house prices, genuine?

I think most people will agree that one side of the argument consists of genuinely held and well argued positions while the other side consists of irrational wishful thinking. They may disagree on which side is which however.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

coolhandluke

I think most of the "greater fools" have bought now,leaving the people who genuinely believe property is overvalued the only one's left.If you were smart enough to hold your ground at this stage,then your going to be smart enough not to buy at the first sign of a drop and for this reason i see a gradual decline(as seller's initially refuse to drop prices until being forced to sell) rather than an overnight crash,but it will be a big decline imho.
There is a lot of ssia money coming on stream may next year,but i think it's smart money and won't be foolishly ploughed into the property bubble.

peasant

Not only is the average Joe Soap being priced out of the market, but also your average mid-size business.
That, coupled with a plethora of over optimistically sized, half empty business parks (and hotels) all over the country would indicate that on the commercial sector building has already gone over the hill but is kept alive by the general greed that comes with a boom.

We have reached the point now where the average house buyer is about one inch away from not being able to afford a house any more ...let oil prices or interest rates rise just another little bit and that's it ...outpriced forever.

Furthermore ...al the people that already have a house and are stretched to the limit will find themselves overstretched and forced to sell.

And another thing ..most modern houses are of such cheap quality and materials that people will think twice about buying one in uncertain times unless they feel they are getting value for money

IMO ...when the "correction" comes, it can only be a crash and nothing but a crash


Personally I can't wait for it ...there's a few things need doing round the house ...all I need is an affordable and reliable builder ...guess they will come queing then

mikemac

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

How much of a drop would it take to get to this level?

whizzbang

SkepticOne wrote:

I think most people will agree that one side of the argument consists of genuinely held and well argued positions while the other side consists of irrational wishful thinking. They may disagree on which side is which however.

If you don't mind I'm gong to copy this an use it so describe every debate on boards

JimmySmith

I think that every thread started on what will happen in the property market should be moved to the Paranormal Forum. At least in there, there are poeple who will actually believe that we have the ability to predict the future. I'm sure their crystal balls are better than ours too.

Its getting to be a tired old subject now.

Bluehair

micmclo wrote:

How much of a drop would it take to get to this level?

My guess is around 50% im real terms compensated for inflation over 5-10 years. I reckon Daveirl is bang-on in that there will be a leveling off after the first big drop where all will hail it's over and it's safe to get back in the water but prices will slowly continue to drift downwards for years.

In a few years time (and for a decade after that) Ireland will be held up as the architypical property bubble story in much the same way that Japan is today.

SkepticOne

Bluehair wrote:

In a few years time (and for a decade after that) Ireland will be held up as the architypical property bubble story in much the same way that Japan is today.

I claim the term "Celtic Crisis" for this eventuality. I looked on google and all uses of it seem to refer to the British football team.

FillSpectre

Bluehair wrote:

Valid Poll and should produce interesting results. Good series of options.

Actually not really at all, just like the nonsencience sky polls. The age breakdown on boards is predominatley under 30 but certainly not covering the range of people who live in this country. The people here tend to be people wanting to get a place of their own and there certainly are thoses just begrudging too.

SkepticOne wrote:

I think most people will agree that one side of the argument consists of genuinely held and well argued positions while the other side consists of irrational wishful thinking. They may disagree on which side is which however.

Actually that isn't true. You spend your time talking to people around the same age about something that is an issue for that age group they will favour an event that is likely to suit them, or at least what they think will suit them. To be out numbered on boards all you have to do is have experience on a subject.:p


All the poll says is the people who go to boards and into the property section think this. The sample is so skewed to start with let alone the subclass of those who go to property. You may thing well it is an indicator well then you can choose the house buying figures as a more accurate indicator.

Sleipnir

coolhandluke wrote:

I think most of the "greater fools" have bought now,leaving the people who genuinely believe property is overvalued the only one's left.

So people who currently own property are fools and thhose that don't are smart? Was it a bad idea to buy a house over the past ten years then?

Everybody knows that property is Ireland is overvalued but nobody knows by exactly how much and that is the problem. Our economy is still booming so I can't see a property crash if everyone is still making a very good wage. Can we have strong growth and also a property crash at the same time?

Of course people are going to spend the SSIA's on property; to say otherwise is ridiculous. Would it be better that they spent it on a car? Or a holiday?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

FillSpectre

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Why save it when money is cheap.
All investement is likely to stumble and fall at some point

SkepticOne

Sleipnir wrote:

So people who currently own property are fools and thhose that don't are smart? Was it a bad idea to buy a house over the past ten years then?

The "greater fool" thing refers to a situation where you buy on the basis that someone else in the future will be willing to pay a greater price rather than on the intrinsic worth of the thing. The rest of your response illustrates this:

Everybody knows that property is Ireland is overvalued but nobody knows by exactly how much and that is the problem.

If property is overvalued then why do people buy? A common response to this is that people feel that if they don't buy they will be priced out of the market. But this means that someone else at a later date must be willing to pay a greater price whent the thing is even more overvalued. If you buy something that is overpriced you might be called a 'fool' but you justify buying on the basis that 'greater fools' exist that are willing to pay more later on. 'Greater fool' is just a piece of jargon. It does not mean that the people are fools (nor does it rule it out). If you really know there are 'greater fools' out there then you're not really a fool. You just don't want to be the last one standing when thewhole thing collapses.

SkepticOne

FillSpectre wrote:

Why save it when money is cheap.
All investement is likely to stumble and fall at some point

Especially if you are investing in an asset price bubble caused by that very same cheap money.

miju

FillSpectre wrote:

Actually not really at all, just like the nonsencience sky polls. The age breakdown on boards is predominatley under 30 but certainly not covering the range of people who live in this country. The people here tend to be people wanting to get a place of their own and there certainly are thoses just begrudging too.

with these "demographics" (pardon the pun) then this would be a very valid poll seeing as how FTB's or people wanting to buy their first house make up 36% of the market

FillSpectre wrote:

Actually that isn't true. You spend your time talking to people around the same age about something that is an issue for that age group they will favour an event that is likely to suit them, or at least what they think will suit them. To be out numbered on boards all you have to do is have experience on a subject.:p

ti simplify these people are having a reality check

FillSpectre wrote:

All the poll says is the people who go to boards and into the property section think this. The sample is so skewed to start with let alone the subclass of those who go to property. You may thing well it is an indicator well then you can choose the house buying figures as a more accurate indicator.

no it doesn't it says the people who've voted in this poll feel the way they do , by your reasoning (and to be honest you really have very little of it) your opinion and everyone elses opinion is invlaid because we discuss this matter in the property forum even though that's what the property forum is for

house buying figures mean jack **** considering that 40% and rising is made up of investors most of which are speculative and are helping to feed this self perpetuating property bubble , what's a nice indicator are polls like this and the one in my siggie BUT the results of these polls don't suit your argument and make for some uneasy reading givin the level of negativity that appears in the polls and the fact you yourself have a fair few properties so are probably feeling a little exposed

FillSpectre

miju wrote:

with these "demographics" (pardon the pun) then this would be a very valid poll seeing as how FTB's or people wanting to buy their first house make up 36% of the market

Actually asking investors would make more sense in your eyes then as they buy more according than FTB according to you.

miju wrote:

no it doesn't it says the people who've voted in this poll feel the way they do , by your reasoning (and to be honest you really have very little of it) your opinion and everyone elses opinion is invlaid because we discuss this matter in the property forum even though that's what the property forum is for

LOL You really don't understand statistic at all. From you other posts I thought this but you really are showing your complete lack of comprehension.

miju wrote:

house buying figures mean jack **** considering that 40% and rising is made up of investors most of which are speculative and are helping to feed this self perpetuating property bubble , what's a nice indicator are polls like this and the one in my siggie BUT the results of these polls don't suit your argument and make for some uneasy reading givin the level of negativity that appears in the polls and the fact you yourself have a fair few properties so are probably feeling a little exposed

If you are suggesting the number of people on a chat site is more genuiene to gauge confidence in the market than actual people buying then you are a completely lost cause. Please actually provide proof that you some how know who is currently buying property. Polls like these are completely, completely useless and have not statistical value. I suggest you go over to the maths forum and ask them. To suggest actual purchase means less about price confidence is histerically funny. I actually don't hink I have heard an adult saying something so stupid and also claim that the other person is blinkered to facts.

You need to learn maths and some scietific evaluation methods. You are not far off reading teabags when it comes to "facts". You will get people to agree with you I'm sure you may even be proved to have the right answer but it still does not mean that how you came to your conclusion is both foolish and inaccurate. I tried to explain how you went wrong before but you couldn't understand so I'll give you a break and ask you how accurate do you think your poll is? This can be mathimatically worked out so there is simply an answer and no point of opinion.

homeOwner

I personally dont think it matters to most people who have already bought whether or not there is a crash as you need somewhere to live so most people will not be selling up without buying again. I just traded up from a 2 bed apartment to a 3 bed house and I paid what I think is ALOT of money for it but we can afford it quite comfortably on two salaries and we are not going to move from there so a crash is irrelevant to us (unless there is widespread unemployment in the country too).

To those people who havent bought yet then it matters greatly which way the market goes. The dilemma is do you wait and hope it goes down, or try to get in now and get a few year's growth?

Maybe the real question is how much of the market is driven by investors (an investor bought my apartment)? And if they drop out of the market, will houses be effected (I dont think so) - its more likely to be apartments that will be hit. But there is a load of people waiting in the wings for apartmetns prices to fall, so they will, for a time, rise again.....

I just dont see if callopsing unless the economy takes a nose dive and there is massive unemployment and high interest rates.

Sarn

homeOwner wrote:

we can afford it quite comfortably on two salaries and we are not going to move from there so a crash is irrelevant to us.

I agree with this sentiment exactly, once you can afford the repayments on your home it doesn't matter.

homeOwner wrote:

To those people who havent bought yet then it matters greatly which way the market goes. The dilemma is do you wait and hope it goes down, or try to get in now and get a few year's growth?

This is the position I'm in as a FTB. I have a selfish interest in the market collapsing. Trying to purchase on my own for a property I didn't want proved very difficult. I just couldn't borrow enough money and the savings I had weren't enough. As a result I have recently given up and have stopped trawling through the property supplements/webpages.

The problem is, with interest rates going up the average mortgage borrower can borrow even less money with stress testing. As this will be the case for everybody, prices (IMHO) can only keep going up if the banks start offering exotic mortgage packages or parents are willing to donate even larger lump sums. This affects the trader uppers who can't get their asking price etc.

As I've said many times before, my rationale now is to wait and save, my time to purchase will come. For the moment I'll enjoy a debt free, 15 min round trip commute for a little while longer.

FillSpectre

Sarn wrote:

This is the position I'm in as a FTB. I have a selfish interest in the market collapsing. Trying to purchase on my own for a property I didn't want proved very difficult. I just couldn't borrow enough money and the savings I had weren't enough. As a result I have recently given up and have stopped trawling through the property supplements/webpages.

At least you are honest about it. It is completely understandable too. I am still waiting to hear people say they don't want to buy at all. The people who insist on a crash want to buy too and I certainly suspect they have the same feeling as you rather than deduced a crash is likely.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Afuera

FillSpectre wrote:

The people who insist on a crash want to buy too and I certainly suspect they have the same feeling as you rather than deduced a crash is likely.

Another rediculously sweeping statement FillSpectre. I've no intention of buying in Ireland, yet still think that all indications lead towards a correction. I've yet to hear a believable explanation for how the market can cool down without crashing anyway.

FillSpectre

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

I also pointed out that that is demand. The savings you are talking about rely on a strange maths in the long term. Effectively your wage and then your pension must stay in line with inflation along with rental prices not exceeding inflation. In the long term a current mortgage will drop below inflation. You are really paying for a service at the same time prolonging the period of your mortgage for what is only short term gain.
It is your choice but it is a gamble and there is no way around that. You are basically saying the short term gain will be worth it. There is also a element of being afraid the market will crash but that has been a threat for at least 6 years and many would say 10. If you were to have been waiting that long you would have probably not saved enough money to off set the increase in prices. I don't know what age you are but if you get past 40 buying a property becomes difficult.
It is gamble to buy or not to buy plain and simple you can't claim it is smart choice other than a personal decision based on the actual market. The poll is not information on the market

FillSpectre

Afuera wrote:

Another rediculously sweeping statement FillSpectre. I've no intention of buying in Ireland, yet still think that all indications lead towards a correction. I've yet to hear a believable explanation for how the market can cool down without crashing anyway.

You expressed a desire to buy a property so you do want to buy you are just complaining about the price. So if you know anybody who doesn't want to buy get them to say you can't answer the questions as you don't feel that way.
There are many possible outcomes a crash is only one and as yet nobody has stated a reason for a crash other than price increase.
I didn't say all people saying a crash will happen want to buy but you like to jump to conclusions whether there is any information or not:rolleyes:

homeOwner

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

I dont think you can compare houses to other goods and services. Houses dont have a value like a tv or a holiday does. A house is "worth" whatever someone will pay for it. There is no such a thing as a "fair price" for a house. If you dont think its worth the price then dont buy it. But to someone else, if it suits their needs and they can afford it, then it might seem like a good buy.

The bottom line for most people is that if you have a family you need somewhere to live. You're fine if you are single and have a job, you can afford to paid less money on rent than a mortgage (although I think rents are around the same as most mortgage payments at the moment). But that is only a short term gain.

Even in the 80s when there was no celtic tiger and very high interest rates, the cost of goods and houses still went up. Our economy was screwed back then and yet a house still cost alot of money in comparison to what people earned, inflation was quite high too, so year on year, everything cost more and salaries were far less than they are now.

So I think you need to look at the big picture when considering buying. Its not only about the amount of money you have in your pocket today. People hoping for a crash are also banking on the fact that salaries wont be affected by it, that inflation wont be effected and that interest rates wont be effected. If houses drop by 20% and interest rates go up to 15% and therefore potentially your salary either stagnates for a few years or you are made redundant, are you in any better a position to buy?

IMO at worse, there will be a slowing down followed by a drop of about 10% in houses further out and apartments in badly serviced locations. But that is a drop of 10% on todays prices. It leave prices around what they were in maybe 2004, is that any better for those people waiting to buy?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

homeOwner

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

You made the point that you arent buying because the houses you looked at were not selling for a fair price, so if you think that applies to everything and is so obvious why did you use it as a point in your argument? Surely it is irrelevant what you think is a fair price in context of the discussion of whether or not there will be a pop. I as merely replying to your point.

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

They arent and I never said they were. If you have a family you need somewhere relatively pernentant to live as your kids will be in school etc.... of course you can rent, but you are open to being moved on at the whim of a landlord, you cant alter the house you live in to better suit your family, you're rent is decided by the landlord and can be raised year on year. Sure you can move somewhere else and uproot your kids from their school and friends. You can do whatever you want but people with families tend to not want to do these things. These are all the reasons people with families chose to buy if they can afford it.

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

So your proposed equity based investments are a guatanteed return then? You must be quite the investor. No one knows what sorts of yields equity investments will give over a number of years. They are just as likely to drop in value as go up. And if the company you invested in goes belly up or the market crashes you are left with nothing. At least if the same thing happens in the housing market you are still left with a house, albeit with mortgage repayments, but one thing is for sure, you need somewhere to live and you will be paying for it either in rent or as a mortgage.

daveirl wrote:

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Great! So dont buy.

FillSpectre

daveirl wrote:

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How and where are you going to live when you are retired? The investment you are talking about is that going to pay your rent or are you going to buy then?

You could lose money on the stock market easier than in the home you are living. Are you actually currently investing the "savings" from renting?

It isn't really your area if you can't afford the area permenetatly IMHO. Sounds like your means can't meet your desires

miju

homeOwner wrote:

It leave prices around what they were in maybe 2004, is that any better for those people waiting to buy?

well considering i wasn't in a position to buy in 2004 and i am now the answer to your question would be a definite YES MUCH BETTER

homeOwner

miju wrote:

well considering i wasn't in a position to buy in 2004 and i am now the answer to your question would be a definite YES MUCH BETTER

And what happens if alot of people are in your situation, i'm guessing it pushes the prices of those properties back up again.

Afuera

FillSpectre wrote:

You expressed a desire to buy a property so you do want to buy you are just complaining about the price.

When and where? You're drawing your own conclusions wrongly here.

FillSpectre wrote:

There are many possible outcomes a crash is only one...

I don't need to hear your theory about all prospective buyers being forced to rent due to investors buying up all the houses in Ireland again thanks!

FillSpectre wrote:

I didn't say all people saying a crash will happen want to buy but you like to jump to conclusions whether there is any information or not

If you didn't want to say that then you shouldn't have said "The people who insist on a crash want to buy too". :rolleyes:

Tazz T

There isn't an option in their for the Japanese scenario. I think this is a high probability.

I think prices have peaked now. Further interest rate rises will ensure they don't go any further. Prices will slowly fall until the next downturn/recession when they'll fall faster. Perhaps ten years of decreasing prices before things pick up again.

miju

homeOwner wrote:

And what happens if alot of people are in your situation, i'm guessing it pushes the prices of those properties back up again.

for starters when prices drop i'll wait to see how hard and fast they drop when they start to rise i'll buy and i'd imagine alot of other people would do the same (i like to call it herd mentality in reverse LOL )

either way will still be quids in it's more a question of how much really if prices rise / fall after i buy then so be it , i couldn't care either way once i've a well located / serviced / sized place to live like i currently have at the moment by renting (at nearlly half the cost it would cost to buy i might add)

homeOwner

miju wrote:

it's more a question of how much really if prices rise / fall after i buy then so be it , i couldn't care either way once i've a well located / serviced / sized place to live like i currently have at the moment by renting (at nearlly half the cost it would cost to buy i might add)

And that is exactly the point of my earlier post. To those of us who have already bought and are not planning on cashing out, it doesnt really matter if it crashes or not as long as you can afford the repayments.

Problem for you though, is that you are not there yet. You are playing a waiting game. It may work in your favour or it may backfire if prices dont drop at all. In the meantime you are paying money in rent that you will never get back again. You seem happy enough to do that, and if it works for you then grand, but I personally dont see it as a wise way to spend you money. I'd rather have my money working for me paying off the mortgage than going to pay the landlord. But thats just me and I am in a different situation to you.

So, well, that leaves us with we agree to disagree

miju

well paying interest on a mortgage is dead money as well , and the savings i make on rent aren't being frittered away they're working away for me very nicely so i dont mind playing the waiting game , living close (10 mins away) to my friends / work / city centre as opposed to moving to a communter belt an hour or two away , nah defo dont want that , qaulity of life is more important to me and my family than owning a house

prices will defo fall of that i'm 100% sure off , the question in my mind is how much

FillSpectre

Afuera wrote:

When and where? You're drawing your own conclusions wrongly here.
I don't need to hear your theory about all prospective buyers being forced to rent due to investors buying up all the houses in Ireland again thanks!

If you didn't want to say that then you shouldn't have said "The people who insist on a crash want to buy too". :rolleyes:

Lets just clarrify here you don't even live in this country and you are tell me what is happening here.
AS I have not said "ALL" the people wanting a crash I did not mean all. Miju is a prime example. He doesn't know how to understands statistics or analytical analysis. He goes on about the herd yet he has just joined a smaller herd.
I recall you saying you would rent while it was cheaper but maybe I mixed you up with somebody else who is talking about the property market from a far.

Afuera

FillSpectre wrote:

Lets just clarrify here you don't even live in this country and you are tell me what is happening here.

I've lived in Ireland until recently, still spend quite a lot of time there and it's not exactly rocket science to see where it's heading. Obviously the objective view is not what you want to hear, and you'd rather stick with your own limited view.

FillSpectre wrote:

AS I have not said "ALL" the people wanting a crash I did not mean all.

Then you should have said "some people" since "the people" implies "all the people" but I'm not going to waste my time trying to teach you English.

FillSpectre wrote:

I recall you saying you would rent while it was cheaper but maybe I mixed you up with somebody else who is talking about the property market from a far.

I don't think it's the only thing you're mixed up about.

FillSpectre

miju wrote:

well paying interest on a mortgage is dead money as well , and the savings i make on rent aren't being frittered away they're working away for me very nicely so i dont mind playing the waiting game , living close (10 mins away) to my friends / work / city centre as opposed to moving to a communter belt an hour or two away , nah defo dont want that , qaulity of life is more important to me and my family than owning a house

prices will defo fall of that i'm 100% sure off , the question in my mind is how much

You see some of us are living in houses close to our friends and family already. I equally think living miles out in the commuter belt to buy a house is a bad idea. Many people IMHO are living so far out because of desire and not practicle considerations. I often hear people say it is for a better quality of life and they get value for money but long commutes and the cost of transport eliminate that. Now I would consider it smart not to buy beyond your need.
I know quite a few people living in their parents houses claiming they are being smart. Now I can see how they could be saving enough to off set some of the value increases. If there is a crash they might then be able to afford.
Now the people renting and saving in the same area as their friends and family are a little rare I find. In fact I would say they are extremely rare. The people I work with who rent are from outside the county and they are not saving at any long term plan. Saving consists of money for holidays is how they look at it.

Now if you are saving a good bit of money after paying rent I would say you are extremely unusua. What kind of percentage is it of your salary?

I find it kind of funny that you would be able to work out the maths correctly considering you have such an inabilty to deal with statistics and such logic. Now they recommend you spend no more than 25% of your income on accomadation now if your combined way to deal with house prices costs you more than that it doesn't make sense at all.

miju

FillSpectre wrote:

Miju is a prime example. He doesn't know how to understands statistics or analytical analysis. He goes on about the herd yet he has just joined a smaller herd.

i understand statistics and analysis very well thank you it's you who chooses to discount them not me , i've been very open about all statistics and debated / dissected them rationally and reached my own conclusion on the matter , you on the other hand like to make sweeping statements with very little backbone to them and when asked for more substance get VERY vague on the matter

it's you who doesn't understand anything FillSpectre and in your increasingly excited statements your getting hard and hard to understand , relax take deep breaths and try typing slower LOL

that small herd your talking about doesn't appear to be so small going by this poll and my poll :-)

lastly Fill i don't want to discuss anything with you anymore because i find you incredibly irrational on this subject like alot of other people i know

Jonnie_Onion

Hey FS, I'd appreciate if you didn't keep ruining threads like this for me by getting personal in your posts, thanks. That kind of thing is the reserve of the less mature poster.

FillSpectre

Afuera wrote:

I don't think it's the only thing you're mixed up about.

That isn't a denial though
I couldn't be bothered checking what you posted up everywhere but I am pretty sure you said you would rent as long as it was cheaper than a mortgage.

As you don't live here and don't want to buy here, (you didn't deny that you don't want to buy at all either, so I guess you do want to own) why are you so interested? THis seems to be a common kind of view from the crash patrol, no interet in buying yet they keep going to all the property threads!

I think the majority of the people who don't own and want a crash want the crash becasue they beleive they can afford once that happens. Is that clear enough and not sweeping. They actively hope for a crash and I have seen them for over 6 years. People who are now at the market think they have figured out what will happen just like them. They could be guessing right but they are certainly aren't using information and logic.

A crash is just one option and if it doesn't happen in a year are they all going to come back and say they were wrong? No, they come back and say it will happen this year instead.

For all those sure of a crash
State the percentage the market will crash by and why that figure, explain the time frame it will happen in and the recovery time.
If it is just a feeling fair enough state it as such there doesn't need to be fancy explanations. If it is a 50% drop belief it has to have some mathematical reason as I would see it but maybe you don't.
Anybody been stating a crash is going to happen for longer than a year?
It seems to be the ultimate thing to say as if you are proved to be wrong you can just keep saying any minute now and keep going .

homeOwner

miju wrote:

prices will defo fall of that i'm 100% sure off , the question in my mind is how much

Apprently you can harness the essential powers of nature in a yogert these days but saying you know 100% for sure what will happen with the housing market, well thats just silly.

FillSpectre

miju wrote:

i understand statistics and analysis very well thank you it's you who chooses to discount them not me , i've been very open about all statistics and debated / dissected them rationally and reached my own conclusion on the matter , you on the other hand like to make sweeping statements with very little backbone to them and when asked for more substance get VERY vague on the matter

Well not from how you explain yourself you don't.
You have not rationally debated the subject as refuse anything that counters your view. You are not rational on the subject becasue all everything you use is just to support your view. I admit a crash is possible think it is the only possibility which is not logical given price is the problem not demand.

I have noticed you don't answer questions that might kind of point out flaws in your statements either. That is exactely when you start to ignore people. hence I ask you questions to explain the maths of your great savings and investemnet and you suddenly stop talking. AS this is your pattern I will assume you are covering something.
If you debated the subject you would only come to the conclusion that something will change and have a list of outcomes and not stick to one definite. Prices could drop in many areas but remain high elswhere

Cantab.

miju wrote:

for starters when prices drop i'll wait to see how hard and fast they drop when they start to rise i'll buy and i'd imagine alot of other people would do the same (i like to call it herd mentality in reverse LOL )

What makes you so confident that you will be able to get a mortgage in such turbulent economic conditions? If there's a massive crash (which I predict there will), the banks will be far more prudent in their lending.

Ireland's international competitiveness is slipping making it a far less favourable destination for the multinationals. This, coupled with the fact that similar sized countries across the world have copped on to what Ireland has done and are offering more attractive packages to the multi-nats. At present, very few countries EU have opened their borders fully to immigrants. What will happen to the rental market in 2008 when all EU countries (France, Germany) must allow full access to their labour markets, resulting in less immigrants coming to Ireland?

delboy159

I do feel that house prices have peaked or are close to peaking, but some peoples arguements are based on simplistic Leaving Cert Economics without a perspective on the realities of the world

- Equity investments perform better. Before anyone even goes into stats or historical performance etc. this is a non-debate...... How many common or garden working stiffs are going to get a 300k loan from a bank and say - it's okay lads, I'm not buying a house, I'm putting it into equities for 20 years - I'll be grand.... Houses for normal people v equities are not a comparison. Yes if you have 1 mill in the bank and scratching your head, then the debate exists, but for the vast majority of home buyers this isn't a consideration.

- Laws of supply and demand - correct they do exist in the housing market, but not like clothes or cars or food etc. You buy clothes and the minute you put it on you have devalued it. Property investments or first time home purchases aren't just based on percieved value, consumption and loss of value like most products.... Bigger picture!

- Families can rent - this is very true. However, human nature kicks in on this one - forget economics.
>Asset to pass onto off spring (no 300k loan for equity portfolio) to put this into perspective - a friend of mine who took 5/6 years to buy because he always thought things were overvalued has a 2 year old kid now (he has a house 4 yrs ish). He has gone from barely buying one house to thinking I need to get a 2nd property to set things up for the baby, no other reason than that!
>If you rent you could be kicked out and homeless (stability for family)
>Quality of the upkeep of the house is landlords responsibility, not renters... Do you pay for a plumber to sort out the smelly toilet because it makes your kids feel sick? Landlord may take weeks (if your lucky) to bother with that..
>Social pressure (I think this is a terrible reason, but unfortunatley true - it's the same as going out 7 yrs, not engaged, then engaged, but not married, then it's married, but no kids - backward Irish crap) - from family and friends - you have a family and no home for them??? Tut, tut..

All of the above reasons - to name but a few don't appear in the basic formula of cost benefit analysis when assesing purchasing v's renting.

We still don't know what will happen when prices do drop a little - will it be a herd get out of dodge mentality or will people think - "there's a bit of value in the market - lets buy" and thus keeping things at a sort of level stable level?

If I was asked which of the two scenarios below were more likely to happen
- houses prices would increas by over 20% from mid 05 to mid 06 OR
- the bubble will burst in 2006.

I would have said the increase from 05 to 06 was less likely - I would have been very wrong there - so one really never knows, does one...

homeOwner

Afuera wrote:

I've lived in Ireland until recently, still spend quite a lot of time there and it's not exactly rocket science to see where it's heading.

Where is it heading? Do you have a timemachine that has taken you to that time in the future when the property market has crashed. Can you tell us the year it happens.