As someone who used to work for a bookies...

DOLEMAN

About 0.0001% of customers make money. Everyone else is down money.

Everyone I used to speak to used to say they were up money or were breaking even, but the reality is they were always down.

If you don't believe me, ring customer service and ask them are you overall in a profit or a loss (the figure is on their screen - they don't need to do any maths.)

If you couldn't be arsed ringing them but "know" you are making a profit, here's something which might surprise you. Is your account still open? If it is, you are making a loss.
Think about it...

Gambling is fun, but don't fool yourself into thinking it is extra income for yourself...

Yes, the gambling industry pisses me off. I hate the way the government removed all taxes (makes no sense whatsoever) and I hate the way it preys on the weak side of human nature...

Chucky the tree

i know i am up money. I must be the 0.00001%, yay!

DOLEMAN

Chucky the tree wrote:

i know i am up money. I must be the 0.00001%, yay!

With Paddy Power? Is your account still open?

Chucky the tree

i dont have an accountant. I stroll down to the shop to do it. Only been betting for about 6 months. Lately i have made records of my bets and winnings so i know how i have been doing.

I honestly cant understand how people dont make money though.

KdjaCL

DOLEMAN wrote:

With Paddy Power? Is your account still open?

IM up money but i have several accounts.


Baby jesus loves paddy power and its EL odds.


LOL @cork 2-1 to win a home game ....yoink.


kdjac

DOLEMAN

Chucky the tree wrote:

I honestly cant understand how people dont make money though.

You are the perfect customer. Dilusional

Gambling is based on lying to yourself. I assure you, over a year, you will be down money. I'm an exceptional gambler (very cautious and accurate) but I am still only slightly down (a few hundred.)

Chucky the tree

DOLEMAN wrote:

You are the perfect customer. Dilusional

Gambling is based on lying to yourself. I assure you, over a year, you will be down money. I'm an exceptional gambler (very cautious and accurate) but I am still only slightly down (a few hundred.)

We'll see. Care to make a wager on that actually?

j/k.


Gambling is based on lying to youself, i dont understad?

Nalz

DOLEMAN wrote:

You are the perfect customer. Dilusional

Gambling is based on lying to yourself. I assure you, over a year, you will be down money. I'm an exceptional gambler (very cautious and accurate) but I am still only slightly down (a few hundred.)

True. The words slippery slope come to mind... and it aint half fúckin hard to make your way back up it, the slope that is....ah ya get what Im on about it.

Proper gambling in my book, is goin to the bookies of a saturday with no more than 5% of your weekly wages and no more. or just a €10/€20 a head game of texas holdem. Nothin in a bookies/online bettin is worth sweatin over. Great buzz alright but its a costly one

Lafortezza

I mate of mine worked/works for a different betting place than PPP and he confirmed that it's very very few people who consistantly make money on sports betting, e.g. betting the EL league week-in week-out.
You might get one person making a big score on a long shot but they nearly always lose it back.

I'd be interested to hear about the Paddy Power policy of closing winning account.

DOLEMAN

lafortezza wrote:

I'd be interested to hear about the Paddy Power policy of closing winning account.

They will publically deny it. I assure you, winning accounts (consistant winners, not lucky punters) are closed. No exceptions.

It makes sense though. They are a public company and they have to do what is right for their shareholders. Letting people will money from them is...bad for business.

KdjaCL

lafortezza wrote:

. betting the EL league week-in week-out.

If you use Betfair and PP , i can gaurantee you will win every week, simple 3 or 4 match accums. Derry Cork Drogs and Shels are simply bankers when playing at home vs anyone but each other.


Some of the online sites like betfair have stupid odds on the EL usually above 1-1.


For arguments sake drogs and derry shels are 2.04 and 2.38 1.19 to win tomorrow, 10 euro treble is what i would do normally (but cant this week never bet against pats, its just wrong )

kdjac

Chucky the tree

but when you ring up and say that my account is has been closed what do they say?

DOLEMAN

Chucky the tree wrote:

but when you ring up and say that my account is has been closed what do they say?

We would say their account has been closed by our traders. They would ask why. We would say there is no explanation on their account - they will receive a letter shortly.

That was it. I have no idea what the letter said.

By the way, it is normal in the bookie industry to close winning accounts. It's not just a Paddy Power thing.

PS Betfair is a totally different matter. I am talking about normal bookies.

beaker21

I don't think you're correct in saying they close winning accounts as I know some shrewd gamblers who are up money in paddy power online but they certainly do limit these customers bets. For example if they tried to back something they were making money from their max bet might be 200 whereas your average joe would be able to put far more on it. I'm sure if it was Aidan O'Brien or someone in that capacity they would close it. At the end of the day they pride themselves on PR and this wouldn't back that up.

KdjaCL

DOLEMAN wrote:

We would say their account has been closed by our traders. They would ask why. We would say there is no explanation on their account - they will receive a letter shortly.

That was it. I have no idea what the letter said.

By the way, it is normal in the bookie industry to close winning accounts. It's not just a Paddy Power thing.

PS Betfair is a totally different matter. I am talking about normal bookies.

Not really samde idea bet money to win money hence gambling.


I clean out my accounts with PP regularly, but if they close one with funds, i assume the funds are sent out via cheque or something?


Also anyone wondering how to have more than one PP account , those magic little card/vouchers you buy in Spars. Bought 2 €50 ones about 6 weeks ago have 580 on them and if Klose finishes top scorer 3880.




kdjac

Chucky the tree

DOLEMAN wrote:

PS Betfair is a totally different matter. I am talking about normal bookies.

YOu mean normal bookies as in walk bookiess like boyles and labrooks?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

masterK

DOLEMAN wrote:

Gambling is based on lying to yourself. I assure you, over a year, you will be down money. I'm an exceptional gambler (very cautious and accurate) but I am still only slightly down (a few hundred.)

How can you be an exceptional gambler and still be down money.

The big reason that most punters lose is down the overround included in prices which guarantees bookmakers profits in the long run. That is why I cannot understand why anybody who wants to have any sort of serious bet would not use Betfair where the overround is typically close to 0%.

The only reason to stick with a traditional bookie is for accumulators.

To say .00001% of punters win is probably totally inaccurate, if you said .00001% of punters who bet in shops or by phone win then you'd be right however Paddy Power and other bookies have acknowledged several times that the are facing a battle with the online punter who tends to be shrewder and has access to many times more information than the betting shop punter.

rag2gar

According to betfairs yearly figures, 15% of clients make money (ie 15k a year or more), and id love to see any account they have closed as they are getting commision off every bet won

Raskolnikov

It might come as a big shock to people, but winning in gambling has absolutely nothing to do with been able to predict winners. It's about the price you get. A classic example of this was when Man Utd played Sunderland in the Premier League last season. The odds on United winning accross all the
bookies were tiny, 1/10 or less. Everyone assumed that Sunderland would just roll over for Utd and get thumped (http://www.squarefootball.net/article/betting.asp?bid=1412). Of course it was the likely outcome, but odds of 1/10 were absolutely ridiculous, the price should have been 1/6-1/7. I backed United NOT to win on betfair.com for 10/1 for only a token stake. Laughed all the way to the bank when I heard the game finished a draw.

For an example today, take a look at the Roger Federer V Jonas Bjorkman game at Wimbledon. Roger can be backed at a measely 1/100 to beat Bjorkman today. Sure enough, he's the best in the world. but what
happens if he slips and turns his ankle? What if he gets a virus or food poisoning the night before? Is it within the bounds of possibility that he might have a bad game? If you're familar with betfair, take a look at the setting betting odds. You can get 5/1 on Roger NOT winning this in straight sets. If you ask me, that's value.

seamus

I don't gamble online, but I'm sure most of you are familiar with the concept of Gambler's ruin

If everyone gambled shrewdly, and never reused winnings to continue betting, then the economics of gambling would be very different. There are a small minority (though it's far larger than the 0.00001% quoted by the OP) who do make a living out of properly calculated gambling, but much like playing the stock market, there's no guarantee of any income day-to-day.

DOLEMAN

masterK wrote:

How can you be an exceptional gambler and still be down money.

Because that is the nature of gambling.

As I said -

People live serious in denial about gambling. People ALWAYS say "I am up money" or "I know a few people who are making a fortune". Well, when I worked in PP I decided to start checking these people's accounts. They are ALWAYS down.

The only people who consistantly make money are the insiders in the horse industry. But PP close their accounts as soon as they spot them.

No matter how good you are at analysing a sport (for me, it's soccer) the reality is you have absolutely no control over winning. In work here, we did a full company world cup bet. Guess who won? The girl who randomly picked teams. No clever analyst would have thought Italy and France would be in the final.

masterK wrote:

Paddy Power and other bookies have acknowledged several times that the are facing a battle with the online punter who tends to be shrewder and has access to many times more information than the betting shop punter.

Paddy Powers profits keep going up and up (check their history.) Also, they have an incredible PR department. Don't believe any crap they tell you.

Honestly, people who gamble do not win in the long term. As I have said, if you have a PP account, ring them to see are you in profit or loss. You will be in a loss.

I acknowledge you can win via betfair (trading the bets etc.) I am only talking about normal bookie betting in this thread.

PS I would like to reiterate that I like betting and I do bet. The problem I have is with people living in denial. Gambling will lose you money, not make you a profit...

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

Because that is the nature of gambling.

What makes you exceptional then? Surely the exceptional ones are the ones who can win at sports betting. You're implying that this is done by cheating, but there are people who beat sports betting by analysing the odds. This does take expert knowledge and is very difficult to do, but it is done by a small number of people.

No clever analyst would have thought Italy and France would be in the final.

There's a post elsewhere explaining why that's not the correct approach to take to successful betting. For example, I picked Miroslav Klose as a probable high scorer in the world cup this time around. I was gutted when I discovered that I could have gotten 22 to 1 on him being the top scorer before the first game. Not because hand on heart I thought he was certainly going to be the top scorer but purely because it was an outrageous price given the season he'd had in Germany. I was only checking out his form for a fantasy football team, surely a serious gambler can do better research.

Paddy Powers profits keep going up and up (check their history.) Also, they have an incredible PR department. Don't believe any crap they tell you.

I'm not particularly keen on the continuous comments you're making about Paddy Power.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

What makes you exceptional then? Surely the exceptional ones are the ones who can win at sports betting. You're implying that this is done by cheating, but there are people who beat sports betting by analysing the odds. This does take expert knowledge and is very difficult to do, but it is done by a small number of people.

I am an exception because I really anayse the teams, statistics, history etc. I don't base my bets on "instincts" or emotions etc. Anyway, my point was that I would be considered a good gambler and even I am down.

Also, I don't let odds cloud my judgement.

Yes there are a few people who make money without being involved in the horse industry. But they are very rare.

ecksor wrote:

I'm not particularly keen on the continuous comments you're making about Paddy Power.

I have no issue with PP. I just know them well, so I can only base my facts upon my experience with them. They are not more evil/less evil than any other bookie. Really, the issue I have is with people being dilusional about gambling. I don't blame bookies for wanting to make money or being happy to take peoples money (freedom of choice etc.)

ecksor

I have no doubt that there are delusional gamblers and that they're in the majority. Your "cautionary tale" is getting a bit out of hand when you open accuse a poster here of being delusional even if he has been keeping records. Your sole evidence seems to be that you're not making money so therefore nobody else could be making money.

masterK

ecksor wrote:

I have no doubt that there are delusional gamblers and that they're in the majority. Your "cautionary tale" is getting a bit out of hand when you open accuse a poster here of being delusional even if he has been keeping records. Your sole evidence seems to be that you're not making money so therefore nobody else could be making money.

I think the OP is the delusional one to call himself not just a good gambler but an exceptional gambler but still lose money.

omahony99

I like the way in Betfair you can get your credit card details and it tells your profit or loss you have since you joined. Thankfully I'm up although I'd be up a good bit more if it wasn't for their 1.5% charge on credit card deposits. I'm sure a lot more than 1 in a million are up in Betfair, a lot of it down to being able lay off bets for profit.

Also if you have patience you can get very good odds e.g. in most Gaelic Football games you can get 12/1 a draw and about 15/1 in hurling even when the bookies are giving half that.
Or in the Golden Ball odds where in the last few days I've got Zidane at 2/3, Cannavaro at 6/1, Klose at 40/1 and Pirlo at 20/1. It's virtually certain to be one of them so I've a guaranteed profit there (I hope!).

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

Your sole evidence seems to be that you're not making money so therefore nobody else could be making money.

No, if you read my posts you will see my evidence is from my time working in a bookie - I could see people are always (overall) down money!

My point about my gambling is that I too belong to the 99.99%, even though I am quite a cautious and "smart" gambler.

wb

Doleman, No offence, but I find it a little patronising for you to come to the gambling forum, and assume everyone here is a mug.

I agree, most gamblers are down money, and wont admit it, especially the betting shop ones. But, to say that 0.0001% are up overall is ridiculous and insulting. Perhaps you have lost money and have a slight grudge against gambling now?

I will admit that I have spent more in my local bookies than I have collected, but my online gambling is a different matter. Many of us keep records of our bets in spreadsheets, and have sound staking plans. Some of us have multiple accounts. Some of us trade, dutch, hedge, and arb which will always involve 'losing' bets for the overall good.

I don't want to pimp another forum here, but I have a system which turned £1000 to £3000 over a number of months using a few hundred bets. as you will find, my posts are always made before the event, so no aftertiming is involved. I will pm you the link. Also, check out the 'dutching' thread, and masterK's ratings in the horse racing forum if you want to see other examples of systems that are showing profit.

While you may only be trying to warn people, you can't tar everyone with the one brush.

Regards,

Wayne.

DOLEMAN

wbailey wrote:

Perhaps you have lost money and have a slight grudge against gambling now?

Not at all! I like gambling and don't bet to make money (at least, making money is not my main focus.) Football is so much more fun with a few quid on it.

wbailey wrote:

While you may only be trying to warn people, you can't tar everyone with the one brush.

I agree there are exceptions. Very very rare though!

wb

DOLEMAN wrote:

Football is so much more fun with a few quid on it.

Thats true alright. I often have a football bet, but dont really make money out of it. I think the key to successful gambling is to specialise. There are just way to many races/events on to take into consideration. Personally, I like to look at AW racing (some hate it!) and am very familiar with the jockeys/horses/trainers involved and the layout of the tracks etc. etc.. Other people are good at betting on Football, or rugby or whatever they are interested in. There is no point in throwing money at all sorts of events hoping for profit unless you know it inside out. I dont know enough about football to make it pay, but enjoy a fun punt now and then, and don't go mad on it.

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

No, if you read my posts you will see my evidence is from my time working in a bookie - I could see people are always (overall) down money!

Your sole evidence that the other poster you accused of being delusional wasn't making money I mean.

ecksor

even though I am quite a cautious and "smart" gambler.

Football is so much more fun with a few quid on it.

Hm, recreational gambling and "smart" gambling don't seem compatible to me.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

Your sole evidence that the other poster you accused of being delusional wasn't making money I mean.

Well, everyone I spoke to during my time in the bookie told me they are breaking even or up money. Without exception, they were all down money. Gambling tricks people (or people trick themselves) into believing they are making money.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

Hm, recreational gambling and "smart" gambling don't seem compatible to me.

Why are you taking this topic so personally?

Do you gamble?

fade2black

DOLEMAN wrote:

Why are you taking this topic so personally?

Do you gamble?

The very nature of your first post in this topic dictated a serios tone so you can't blame anyone for taking it seriously.

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

Well, everyone I spoke to during my time in the bookie told me they are breaking even or up money. Without exception, they were all down money. Gambling tricks people (or people trick themselves) into believing they are making money.

You're not even paying attention here. Do you or do you not remember the post above where you dismissed a poster's claim that he made money from sports gambling?

DOLEMAN wrote:

Why are you taking this topic so personally?

I'm not taking this personally. I'm merely finding your inconsistant arguments problematic.

Do you gamble?

Yes, but not in a way that's relevant to this discussion.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

You're not even paying attention here.

?

ecksor wrote:

Do you or do you not remember the post above where you dismissed a poster's claim that he made money from sports gambling?

Yes, because the evidence is overwhelmingly in my favor. As I have stated many times, everyone thinks they make money from gambling. Yes, I accept he could be an exception, but it is highly unlikely.

ecksor wrote:

I'm not taking this personally. I'm merely finding your inconsistant arguments problematic.

They're not inconsistant... I like to throw a few quid of football games. I research the teams before the game to see what would be the smartest bet to make. I then watch the game, enjoying it very much because it's more exciting to see was I right or wrong.

If you believe you can't have fun gambling while taking your gambilng decisions seriously, you need to quit gambling!

ecksor wrote:

Yes, but not in a way that's relevant to this discussion.

You think poker isn't gambling? Now we're getting somewhere...

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

You think poker isn't gambling? Now we're getting somewhere...

Your question makes no sense.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

Your question makes no sense.

Your reply makes no sense!

Poker IS gambling. When you sit down at the table with €100, you don't know (you only hope) you'll be up money at the end of the night. You may be down money. That is gambling...

Yes, long term I understand and appreciate a good poker player has the odds in his favor, but it's still gambling...

Note: in this topic, I am talking about betting on horses/football etc. NOT poker.

But maybe I've misunderstood your response...

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

Poker IS gambling. When you sit down at the table with €100, you don't know (you only hope) you'll be up money at the end of the night. You may be down money. That is gambling...

I understand that. You asked me if I gamble. I said I did. You obviously worked out that I meant poker. What's the confusion here?

Note: in this topic, I am talking about betting on horses/football etc. NOT poker.

But maybe I've misunderstood your response...

Gosh, do you think maybe that's why I said my gambling wasn't relevant to this discussion?

Honestly, you're definitely not paying attention to this thread.

scojones

I think the flaws in what doleman is saying have been pointed out but I have to say my piece.

Of course gamblers lose money, if they didn't there would be no bookies around. I know a load of gamblers who are down money but insist they are just about even or are in profit. These people are fools, and they are a majority, but to make a generalisation against all gamblers saying that 0.00001% are making a living is ridiculous. So, you worked in paddypowers and saw the mug gamblers and because of that you think every gambler is a mug? Come off it man.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

I understand that. You asked me if I gamble. I said I did. You obviously worked out that I meant poker. What's the confusion here?

No confusion. A friend of mine told me he has played you in poker. Assumed that was your demon...

sjones wrote:

These people are fools, and they are a majority, but to make a generalisation against all gamblers saying that 0.00001% are making a living is ridiculous. So, you worked in paddypowers and saw the mug gamblers and because of that you think every gambler is a mug? Come off it man.

You agree the majority of people lose money gambling... but for some reason boards.ie users are exempt?

Hobbes

DOLEMAN wrote:

Poker IS gambling.

It depends. If your hopeless at Poker (like myself) then yes it is gambling. If on the other hand your a professional at the game then no it isn't.

My uncle used to own a load of gambling places when I was growing up (which is why we had it drummed into us never to gamble). Basically the house would have something like for example a 2:1 win ratio for the customer. This mean for every $2 they spent they would win $1. Of course this isn't constant so it is possible if you knew what you were doing you could come out ahead but over time you lost out.

There are people who can routinely win again and again. They are a low percentage of people (certainly not to the level you had). I do not know if Paddypower close accounts or not of frequent winners, but it is quite normal to be refused entry to a gambling casino if your considered to be one of these people.

The house will always change the game so it is in thier favour. Blackjack/Rolette for example were not initially gambling (if you knew the system you could always win) but were changed by casinos to stop this from happening.

scojones

DOLEMAN wrote:

You agree the majority of people lose money gambling... but for some reason boards.ie users are exempt?

Seriously, where did I say anything about boards.ie users? I said, making a generalisation which states that nobody makes money from gambling is ridiculous. Please pay attention or at least make an attempt to back up what you're saying.

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

No confusion. A friend of mine told me he has played you in poker. Assumed that was your demon...

You ask me if I gamble. I say yes (meaning my poker playing) and you ask me if I think poker isn't gambling? You definitely got confused there.

I don't bet on sports (with the exception of approximately €100 I deposited on paddypower about 3 years ago for a laugh) because I don't know enough about it. I keep meaning to do a bit of book learning and experiment with it, but that hasn't happened yet.

Perhaps I'm overly simplistic, but I associate "serious gambling" with being able to correctly assess if you have an edge through specialised knowledge of the thing being wagered upon. When you say you "ignore the odds" and comment upon the irony of random picks choosing the world cup finalists I don't really believe that's your approach to the subject.

DOLEMAN

ecksor wrote:

Perhaps I'm overly simplistic, but I associate "serious gambling" with being able to correctly assess if you have an edge through specialised knowledge of the thing being wagered upon.

I agree.

ecksor wrote:

When you say you "ignore the odds" and comment upon the irony of random picks choosing the world cup finalists I don't really believe that's your approach to the subject.

? Why?

ecksor

Hobbes wrote:

It depends. If your hopeless at Poker (like myself) then yes it is gambling. If on the other hand your a professional at the game then no it isn't.

I disagree with this. I believe that poker is gambling irrespective of the size of your edge or your ability to manage a bankroll etc.

Being a professional is irrelevant. I could theoretically sit into soft games for small stakes where my edge is larger than a professional would have in a higher stakes game even though my knowledge and skill do not compare to the profesionals.

Anyway, this was done to death recently on the poker forum: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054943722

DOLEMAN

sjones wrote:

Seriously, where did I say anything about boards.ie users? I said, making a generalisation which states that nobody makes money from gambling is ridiculous. Please pay attention or at least make an attempt to back up what you're saying.

I never said nobody makes money from gambling!

Take some of your own advice about paying attention...

ecksor

DOLEMAN wrote:

? Why?

Because the odds are central to determining your edge. Because focusing on the results of the world cup have nothing to do with whether or not a bet was good or not in hindsight.

There's a post on this thread by Raskolnikov that explains this very well.

scojones

DOLEMAN wrote:

I never said nobody makes money from gambling!

Take some of your own advice about paying attention...

Oh yeah that's right, you said:

DOLEMAN wrote:

About 0.0001% of customers make money. Everyone else is down money.

Care to show me the research you did which led to this statistic? I don't ever remember being interviewed.