Bullish or bearish & renter or owner

miju

as the title suggests think this would make for a more interesting and informative poll

so without further ado

ronbyrne2005

MAybe better in Afterhours as those who look at use accom/prop arent/are less likely to be a representative sample

miju

just an iccle bump as wud be interested in getting a good response on this poll

CiaranC

I do not own property and am bullish

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

mikemac

I do not own property and am bearish

CiaranC wrote:

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

I agree with you 100%

shoegirl

I think we will end up with a scenario something like the UK in the early 1990s. I would guess that the market is going to break up into areas where demand continues at a frenzy or collapses altogether. We will see a big contrast between high-demand areas where there is still economic growth and mostly rural regions or outer-outer suburbia where the pace did not keep up.

The end of tax breaks to the 2nd home industry may weaken prices of holiday homes as as tax breaks have effectively pushed prices higher. Again more attractive areas will continue to have high demand, with dismal one horse towns, and areas with very poor infrastructure likely to collapse.

Rents already sagged due to heavier competition - will become a particular problem in "cheaper" Dublin regions like West and North Dublin. Will be slow to rise as increasing dependence on rent allowance tenants will make it harder to put up rents rapidly.

miju

CiaranC wrote:

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

that would make you a bear

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

as the title suggests think this would make for a more interesting and informative poll

so without further ado

dude you need to specify over what period you are referring to otherwise you poll is pointless. How many years are you asking people to respond on?

miju

think it's pretty much a gimme that i meant present time

miju

this is defo turning up some interesting results this far

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

think it's pretty much a gimme that i meant present time

What present time? 6 mnths? 1 year? 3 years. Its still not clear dude.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Cantab.

I own a property and am bearish

Yeah, interesting poll alright (despite the obvious plagarism!).

Sentiment does indeed count for a hell of a lot in a market and the results here, provided by boardsies, show a clear negative feeling. I wonder though what your average Sunday Independent reading, amateur property investor would think though?

miju

Cantab. wrote:

Yeah, interesting poll alright (despite the obvious plagarism!).

was meant as a quiet nod of the cap for the poll in the first place Cantab

SouperComputer

hmm wonder if Dev or any of the admins would put this up as an announcement?

Ive put linkage in my sig anyway, im very interested to see the results.

Might help to edit your first post and explain what bullish\bearish mean though, im not sure a lot of people understand and it could give a false reading.

miju

indeed think it would be a very decent indicator of sentiment in the market jaysis if enough people answered it you could even get a news story out of it LOL

SouperComputer

jaysis if enough people answered it you could even get a news story out of it LOL

My thoughts exactly

miju

have posted in mods forum for admins to have a look see

miju

caeser put his thumb down LOL

miju

thanks Victor, smccarrick, gandalf for stickying (whichever one of ye it was LOL)

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

have posted in mods forum for admins to have a look see

dude im not trying to knock you but if you want this poll to carry some weight to journalists or even with the general public then you need to get more specific.

We both know that both you and i have very differing opinions but that doesnt mean that i dont respect your views or sentiments!

If you want the poll to carry credibility then i suggest you define what period you are asking voters to speculate over (i suggest doing both a short term [2 years] and long term poll [10 years]. I suggest also you also ask voters to specify their age group (or age). It would be no harm to ask voters to specify their buying power or interest in the subject. (the problem with polls is that you often get very opinionated people voting which incorrectly weights a poll)

If anyone feels im being unfair please do feedback.

miju

you make a very fair point faceman the origin of this poll was as a result of another poll and TBH wasn't fully thought out , might actually do what you suggest though if i get a chance soon enough

Cantab.

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

you make a very fair point faceman the origin of this poll was as a result of another poll and TBH wasn't fully thought out , might actually do what you suggest though if i get a chance soon enough

I think it's a good poll. We can get more and more detailed till the cows come home, but let's not loose sight of the fact that we're only getting a feel for what people think. It's a poll, not a referendum. The terms 'bull' and 'bear' are very general and are akin to a sort of hot or cold feeling. The slight difference of opinion between owners and non-owners is rather interesting. I was quite surprised to see that the propotion of bulls to bears is relatively similar amongst owners and non-owners. I would have expected to see a much bigger disparity.

miju

Cantab. wrote:

The slight difference of opinion between owners and non-owners is rather interesting. I was quite surprised to see that the propotion of bulls to bears is relatively similar amongst owners and non-owners. I would have expected to see a much bigger disparity.

have to agree , altough only a quick / non precise poll it is yielding some interesting results

nimble75

> Originally Posted by CiaranC
>Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever,
>but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price
>drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

RUBBISH!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a HUGE crash on the way, MARK MY WORDS. Soft landing? NOT A CHANCE!! The vested interests will toe that line (banks, politicians etc..) but the fact is that property in the developed world in general is grossly overinflated, due to an abundance of cheap credit and other economic factors...Irish property being the location of possibly the most severe overinflation in the western world..... in Spain, NZ and USA for example, the saturation of new construction housing and cheap mortgages fueled a huge property boom as it has here, but they are a year or two ahead of us in the cycle, and in those countries now, people wanting to sell propery are having serious problems, needing to discount significantly to get a sale...

People buying property in Ireland at the moment are going to get severely burnt...as will many people who have purchased in the last few years with large mortgages...

Just check this article out...from an economic analyst who knows what he's talking about...you have to stop just looking in Ireland to figure out where things are going and look at things from a global economic perspective, something that our own politicians certainly don't do.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/saxena082206.html

Soft landing??? NO WAY!!!! I'm looking forward to buying a mansion for a knock-down price in 3-4 years.

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

Soft landing??? NO WAY!!!! I'm looking forward to buying a mansion for a knock-down price in 3-4 years.

Funny that, I know a guy who's been waiting to buy a Mansion at a knock-down price in the next 3-4 years since 1997, when he decided that a 2 bedroom apartment in Ranelagh was grossly overpriced at £60,000 and that the bubble would have to burst soon.

miju

magpie wrote:

Funny that, I know a guy who's been waiting to buy a Mansion at a knock-down price in the next 3-4 years since 1997, when he decided that a 2 bedroom apartment in Ranelagh was grossly overpriced at £60,000 and that the bubble would have to burst soon.

well he wont have to wait much longer seeing as how prices have now started to drop

better late than never

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

Yes, but prices are not going to reverse back to pre - '97 levels

miju

magpie wrote:

Yes, but prices are not going to reverse back to pre - '97 levels

why not if they can rise 40% in 2 years they can sure as hell fall well back below that

would you care to offer your reasoning for it not falling back to 1997 levels other than they just wont.

if you dont think they will fall back to 1997 why not ? and to what level will they fall to and whats your reasoning?

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

In 1997 property was undervalued in Ireland, all that's happened in the last 10 years or so is that its caught up with equivalent European Capitals. Its now about on a par with London.

miju

difference is London is a central european/world economy so you cant really compare ireland (or dublin for that matter) with london

keynesian

I do not own property and am bullish

I said the market would tip at the end of september, dad said new years. The bank are getting out, bad sign. "the popes children" say we're doomed and soon. It all depends on wheather poeple panic. What is sure we are heading for a reajustment in the market. please don't panic I'm trying to sell.

Prices have stold caz of mac dowl said, ****. It could be a 1% ajustment or 50%, depends on the maturity of the poeple.

still have to read the eco stats from CB

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

keynesian wrote:

I said the market would tip at the end of september, dad said new years. The bank are getting out, bad sign. "the popes children" say we're doomed and soon. It all depends on wheather poeple panic. What is sure we are heading for a reajustment in the market. please don't panic I'm trying to sell.

Prices have stold caz of mac dowl said, ****. It could be a 1% ajustment or 50%, depends on the maturity of the poeple.

still have to read the eco stats from CB

Hmm dublin house prices growth increased from August to September from .7% to 1.1%, but alot of people are holding out until the budget.

I reckon both ur Da and you are wrong. Re-adjustment is still a bit off me reckons and even then its going to be miniscule if anything at all.

Oh yeah how do banks "get out"? Have they stopped providing mortgages or something?

keynesian

I do not own property and am bullish

faceman wrote:

Oh yeah how do banks "get out"? Have they stopped providing mortgages or something?

Sorry bad frazing, They''ve been selling and leasing back choose properties, I would have thought that means they think the market is at it''s peak. Or perhaps these highly profitable banks in europe are going broke. Could be many reasons.

True be told I was hearing property price were going to crash since they started raly.

Oh, was that a real or nominal .7%, ok, ok, I'll read the stats later.

miju

thing is i don't think even bulls wills disagree annual price growth isn't going to go over the 3% mark (banks and estate agents etc all agree on this)

so this means anyway without any panic when the current inflation figure is factored into the equation the price drops without anyone doing anything , of course if they don't rise at all then the drop is even bigger and thats before any type of nervousness or panic could possibly set in

megadodge

why not if they can rise 40% in 2 years they can sure as hell fall well back below that

would you care to offer your reasoning for it not falling back to 1997 levels other than they just wont.

if you dont think they will fall back to 1997 why not ? and to what level will they fall to and whats your reasoning?

I'd actually be far more interested in hearing your reasoning behind why you think it's possible that prices will fall back to 1997 levels.

60K for a two bed apartment in Ranelagh in the coming years ??? Even the most gullible of people will find that hard to swallow !!

I do not own property and am bullish

www.thepropertypin.com

According to the census we have 250,000 houses PLUS vacant.
Never lived in.
30,000 HOLIDAY HOMES TOO

There is a BIG difference. Especially when you take into account that most of these EMPTY houses were bought AFTER 2002.
www.cso.ie

Now why would you buy a house and not rent it out and not live in it? for the Craic?
Taxpayers have been paying investors to buy up these houses through Tax incentive schemes etc. The "investors" havent let these properties onto the market for anyone to live in. Crunching supply.
Why did they buy them? I believe they were purchased for capital appreciationand were not rented out so that the investor would not be liable for Capital Gains Tax.
anyone who drives around FERNS in WEXFORD must have seen this sign on the N11:



I suggest to anyone who is thinking of buying now to seriously do their research.

http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054967253

http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/

and of course check www.floodmaps.ie - make sure your property is not on a floodplain - look up adamstown for example! they did work on the area a few years ago(pre 2002) to prevent flooding (as part of planning requirements) yet it flooded in 2002. part of it is on a floodplain

Afuera

megadodge wrote:

60K for a two bed apartment in Ranelagh in the coming years ??? Even the most gullible of people will find that hard to swallow !!

Taking wage inflation into consideration 60K paid back in 1997 would be the equivalent of about 120K today. I agree with your sentiment though that this may be too low a floor for the 2-bed apartment property market there.

There are other factors added to Ranelagh such as the Luas and the removal of the dodgy triangle that would mean it is not really possible to compare an apartment in this area then with an apartment in the area today.

hmmm

megadodge wrote:

60K for a two bed apartment in Ranelagh in the coming years ??? Even the most gullible of people will find that hard to swallow !!

I'd prefer to look at it in terms of the historical averages. Historically, mortgages here & in most other countries have been 2.5/3 times average incomes - in Dublin I'm guessing incomes are around 40k average? Considering real multiples of 8/9/10 times incomes are now common, we have a long way to fall - unless you really believe "it's different this time".

miju

megadodge wrote:

I'd actually be far more interested in hearing your reasoning behind why you think it's possible that prices will fall back to 1997 levels.

i wouldn't i'd be interested if you didnt answer a question with a question , i think the reasoning for the potential falls has been outlined by many times by many posters over the threads on the other hand however , i've yet to hear someone put up a plausible argument to the contrary that prices can keep rising / plateua

megadodge

i think the reasoning for the potential falls has been outlined by many times by many posters over the threads

Exactly - and the same reasoning each and every previous time has been wrong.

Unfortunately back in the mid-90's I foolishly listened to these very convincing theoretical arguments. I didn't buy then as I was waiting for the "inevitable fall". Ten years later....

I would never claim to be an expert and I certainly do think prices are plateauing at the moment and may even drop a few points in the coming year or two, but back to 1997 levels ???? I really don't think so.

As to my reason why, well I don't have any wonderful theory, just as those who didn't decide to wait in the mid-90's didn't either. The facts have shown a massive rise while the theorists continued to predict doom and gloom. If there is a fall in 2007 the theorists will claim "I told you so" completely ignoring all their previous incorrect "I told you so"s.

It's not even a matter of being right or wrong now it's the fact that the 'experts' have been wrong so many times before that it's very hard to take them seriously even when they could well have a very good case.

miju

well the experts who are bullish about the property market have been wrong to date just as much as the bears

not to belittle your post but posting reasons such as "ten years ago they said the same thing" as to why prices will not fall doesn't cut it , especially in the face of at least 100 price drop examples already posted and other reasonings

megadodge

posting reasons such as "ten years ago they said the same thing" as to why prices will not fall doesn't cut it

Ten years ago was when I started noticing the "prices have to fall" brigade and basically the same people have been saying the same thing ever since (ie. 9 years ago, 8 years ago, 7 years ago etc.) while prices have been rising.

They have been consistently wrong and as a result it's very hard to believe them.

especially in the face of at least 100 price drop examples already posted and other reasonings

Did I not say that I think prices are plateauing and there could be a small fall in the next year or two ?

And the basis of my intervention on this thread was your belief that prices could revert to 1997 levels. I can't see that happening and you haven't refuted that point.

miju

megadodge wrote:

And the basis of my intervention on this thread was your belief that prices could revert to 1997 levels. I can't see that happening and you haven't refuted that point.

those percentage drops aren't small and if you consider them small i'd be curious as to what you think is significant percentage drop?

and actually it wasn't me who said it initially but seeing as how we're on the subject of not refuting points , when replying to my post you AGAIN "forgot" the point that the bulls have also been wrong for the same amount of time as the bears ......mmmmmmmmmmm

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

in the face of at least 100 price drop examples

You're confusing vendors having to reduce the asking price for their properties in order to achieve a sale with price drops per se.

A price drop would be if the asking price for a house actually dropped to a level below that of a similar property sold 12 months previously (for instance), or if the value of a house dropped below what the current owner paid for it.

The fact is that house prices are continuing to rise, albeit at a slower rate.

Granted the market is less fluid at present, but it will require something disastrous in the world economy, a return to double digit interest rates and 70% taxation etc for the prices of houses to actually drop. In which case we'll all probably be out of a job and it'll be a moot point anyway.

If you can afford to buy now, and have stress tested for probable interest rate rises in future then go ahead. If you're waiting for a price crash before you buy you're going to be waiting a long time.

miju

so let me get this straight here......market is bouyant , prices rising per month at stupid levels , BUY, BUY , BUY

market now flatlining , asking prices drop by large amounts (which is unheard of in the boom years by the way) , BUY , BUY , BUY ??????

If asking prices are dropping by significant amounts then it means the property has no interest so the seller reduces prices you can be sure as hell that the vendor is not getting their original asking price which equals a REAL price drop

really cant win either way with this one can i?

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

magpie wrote:

Granted the market is less fluid at present, but it will require something disastrous in the world economy, a return to double digit interest rates and 70% taxation etc for the prices of houses to actually drop.

Wow ! with that kind of faith in the property market no wonder people are paying over half a million for very average houses in estates.
Sure according to that logic - property is bullet proof - bar a nuclear war - properties are goldmines.

miju

I do not own property and am bullish

miju wrote:

really cant win either way with this one can i?

no! didnt you read the post? Bar nuclear war property is safe.


Thank God! Because for a moment I was getting worried about the future of our economy since its so dependent on property. Good job ! maybe we wont have 100,000 layoffs in the construction industry like finfacts say.

megadodge

and actually it wasn't me who said it initially but seeing as how we're on the subject of not refuting points , when replying to my post you AGAIN "forgot" the point that the bulls have also been wrong for the same amount of time as the bears ......mmmmmmmmmmm

Miju, this is a genuine request, so please treat it as such -

I'm not an expert (as I already mentioned) so could you explain what "bull" and "bear" mean. Am I correct in assuming they're the extremes of positive and negative outlooks on property, or, is it a case of if you're not one you're the other. Is there any grey area?

I can't answer you until I know.

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

the vendor is not getting their original asking price which equals a REAL price drop

No it doesn't. Quote me one instance of a property, anywhere in Ireland, that has been sold for less than the vendor originally paid for it.

For the scenario you predict to happen people need to get into a negative equity situation, which has also yet to happen anywhere in Ireland (i.e. where the valuation of the house is less than the mortgaged value)

hmmm

magpie wrote:

You're confusing vendors having to reduce the asking price for their properties in order to achieve a sale with price drops per se.

A price drop would be if the asking price for a house actually dropped to a level below that of a similar property sold 12 months previously (for instance), or if the value of a house dropped below what the current owner paid for it.

Jaysus talk about trying to redefine the English language. If a house is worth 300k today and is worth 290k tomorrow its price has dropped. That should be fairly obvious. A house price has no memory of what you paid for it.