High Risk Laying

dvdfan

Hello,

Following on from my other topic "some laying advice" i have taken wbaileys advice and decided to post my lays including what price i back them on betfair. As i will be waiting till just before the race for prices more often than not there will be several posts but i will post a summary at the end of the day. Some days due to work i will only be backing evening racing but as soon as it becomes more profitbale i will quit my job and do it fulltime

Heres the first one
2.10 Uttoxeter Nightsbridge Hill 25.0 Betfair @ €4 Liability €96 profit €3.80
Result: 5th of 14 Profit +€3.80 SP 14/1
Price Difference +10.00

dvdfan

2.20 Warwick Avery 21.0 Betfair Liability €80 Profit €3.80
Result: 4 of 5 SP 20/1 Profit €3.80
Price Difference 0.00

dvdfan

2.30 Windsor Beckenhams Secret 15.0 Betfair Liability €56.00 Profit €3.80
Result: 7 of 13 SP 11/1 Profit +€3.80
Price Difference +3.0

fade2black

Good luck with this DVDFAN. In my opinion, it's shere madness but I hope it works out for you.

dvdfan

fade2black wrote:

Good luck with this DVDFAN. In my opinion, it's shere madness but I hope it works out for you.

Thanks Fade, all need all the luck i can get.

4.10 Windsor Seaflower Reef 21.0 Betfair Liability €80.00 Profit €3.80
Result Finished 5th of 7 Profit +€3.80 SP 16/1
Price Difference +4.0

dvdfan

4.45 Windsor Palatinate 36.0 Betfair Liability €140.00 Profit €3.80
Result 8th of 9 Profit +€3.80 SP 25/1
Price Difference +10.00

dvdfan

5.05 Warwick Storm Prospect 29.0 Betfair Liability €112.00 Profit €3.80

Horse Was withdrawn, i presume betfair treats this as a non runner and returns both stakes??

dvdfan

Nothing worth chancing in the last few at Uttoxeter so heres the last lay of the day!

5.40 Windsor Mels Moment 28.0 Betfair Liability €108.00 Profit +€3.80
Result: 8th of 8 Profit +€3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference -6.0

dvdfan

Summary

Sunday 2nd July Summary:

6 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€22.80
Pts Profit: +6

Paddy Irishman

Originally posted by fade2black
Good luck with this DVDFAN. In my opinion, it's shere madness but I hope it works out for you.

I share the same view. It sounds like easy money but remember it only takes one winner at those sort of prices to wipe out a whole months or more work.

dvdfan

True, and i hope to prove ye all wrong with a bit of luck:D . I still stand by the fact that im picking horses that i think dont have a chance and are really 60/1-100/1 shots and im backing them at 16/1-33/1. So hopefully im reading the form correctly and dont get stung. There will be a few 16/1-33/1 winners everday but i dont back every race just like today because even though there was races where there were a few 16/1-33/1 i didnt back anything because i wasnt confident that any one of them was capable of winning it if a couple of horses had a bad day. (i only backed 6 of the 18 races today).

Also i estimate i will pick 50 horses a week, so one winner will wipe out approx 4-5 days work not 1 months. Im planning for 1 winner a week say at an average of 30/1 so im hoping for 20 pts profit each week.

Again you could be right and its always possible to get a few winners on the one day, but its a risk im willing to take. I do think if i was just laying horses simply because they were available at 16/1+ then i would lose in the long run but my system relies on me picking value lays that dont have a real chance of placing let alone winning.

masterK

I agree with most of the others that this is sheer madness.

Have a look at your results yesterday, which was the perfect day in terms of what you are doing.

You had a combined liability of €613 if all the selections had won, you made a profit of €26.60 laying these, that equates to a 4.33% return on investment. To put it into context AIB have a no risk deposit account with an ROI of 5%, I know which one I'd rather have my money in.

TOm Kelly

Not making any comment on method but I would like to know which AIB branch is giving 5% per week.

masterK

TOm Kelly wrote:

Not making any comment on method but I would like to know which AIB branch is giving 5% per week.

It's not per week, my comment was that if DVDFan made the same profit every day for a year against the same liability it would result in a lower ROI than if he invested the total liability in a deposit account.

dvdfan

The fact that nobody has agreed with me yet is not a good sign for my system. However i still stand by the fact that my horses are layed at 16-33 when in fact they have a 66-100 chance, and this is what will prove to be successful for me in the end. Again a 20/1 shot won the first at wolverhampton but there is no way i would have backed him, i wouldnt say he was good enough to win dudging his form but i taught he was a better price than 20/1.

And in the next at pontefract, ellens princess, wanna shout and giverny spring are all 16-25/1 but i think all of them have a chance of placing, anyway ill let me system talk for itself from now on.:D

ErinGoBrath

Good luck with the system but I'm also another doubter.

I always wondered who these people where that layed 1000/1 to make a quid. Are they completely mad or do they know something we don't know?

When it comes to laying I can't help think of the poor lad who layed Nolan €40@1000 when he was 2f out. €40,000 loss, ouch :eek:

dvdfan

4.15 Pontefract Every Inch 75.0 Betfair Liability €296.00 Profit €3.80
Result: 14th Of 17 Profit +€3.80 SP 40/1
Price Difference +34.0

dvdfan

4.30 Wolverhampton Lucky Lil 65.0 Betfair Liability €256 Profit €3.80
Result: 8th of 12 Profit +€3.80 SP 40/1
Price Difference +24.0

dvdfan

5.00 Wolverhampton Knockbridge 15.0 Betfair Liability €56.00 Profit €3.80

Think this horse is a bargain to lay at this price, his 2 previous runs on all weather were well below par and well below what hes capable on the turf. Wouldnt be surprised to see him follow the rest of the home.:cool:

Exactly as it panned out, he came last
Result: 12th of 12 Profit +€3.80 SP 10/1
Price Difference: +4.00

dvdfan

8.40 Windsor Fondness 12.0 Betfair Liability €44.0 Profit €3.80

Dont know if this is a mistake or not but i expected him to be in the region of 33/1-40/1, cant see anything in his form that would make him worthy of the price on betfair.:eek:

Didnt lose as easily as i anticipated, was in the running with 2 to go but couldnt find anything extra and was left behind.
Result 6th of 11 Profit +€3.80 SP 19/2
Price Difference +2.5

decies

O how i missed my laying days

Sorry carry on.

dvdfan

7.40 Windsor Pearly Poll 40.0 Betfair Liability €156.00 Profit €3.80
Result 5th Of 7 Profit €3.80 SP 25/1
Price Difference + 14.0

dvdfan

7.55 Musselburgh Troodos Jet 42.0 Betfair Liability €164.00 Profit €3.80

Thats all the lays for 2day, ill be back with a summary after the 8.40 at Windsor
Result 9th of 11 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference +8.0

dvdfan

Summary

Monday 3rd July Summary:

6 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€22.80
Pts Profit: +6

Overall Profit Day 2:
12 Selections 12 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +45.60
pts Profit: +12:D

dvdfan

Day 3 Here we gO.

Might not make it back in time for the 2.15 so ive placed an order on betfair so it may or may not be matched.

2.15 Hamilton Seallerain Betfair 48.0 Liability €188.00 Profit €3.80

This horse was a non-runner

fade2black

haha...

This is like watching a Dying Dog...we know he's gonna go sometime..it's just a matter of when....:eek:

(hope he doesn't of course....:D )

dvdfan

2.30 Kaptain Kate Betfair 60.0 Liability €236.00 Profit €3.80
Result 5th of 5 Profit €3.80 SP 40/1
Price Difference +19.0

dvdfan

4.30 Brighton Wonderful Desert 9.0 Betfair Liability €32.00 Profit €3.80

Think this horse got Green Deserts bad genes judging by his last 3 runs and hell need alot of improvement to win this aswell as the fact hes been dirifting all day on betfair and hasnt run for nearly 300 days. Price is way overvalued because of his pedigree and he hasnt lived up to that yet!

That will be all until evening racing as i expect we might see a few outsiders place today at Hamilton and Brighton.

As expected ran another poor race only finishing half length in front of the last 2.
Result: 6th of 8 Profit +€3.80 SP 7/1
Price Difference +1.0

dvdfan

6.30 Thirsk Madam Moschata 65.0 Betfair Liability €256.00 Profit €3.80
NB: This bet is currently unmatched but im unsure if ill make it back in time for

This bet was unmatched

dvdfan

8.15 Southwell Shakwaa Betfair 80.0 Liabilty €316.00 Profit €3.80
Result: 9th of 12 Profit €3.80 SP 40/1
Price Difference +39.0

dvdfan

8.45 Southwell Trawbreaga Bay 80.0 Betfair Liability €316.00 Profit €3.80
Result: Pulled Up Profit €3.80 SP 50/1
Price Difference: +29.0

dvdfan

9.15 Southwell Water Pistol 32.0 Betfair Liability €124.00 Profit €3.80
Result 8th of 12 Profit €3.80 SP 22/1
Price Difference +9.0

dvdfan

Summary

Tuesday 4th July Summary:

5 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€19.00
Pts Profit: +5

Overall Profit Day 3:
17 Selections 17 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€64.60
pts Profit: +17:D

dvdfan

2.10 Worcester Oyster Pearl 28.0 Betfair Liability €108 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 11 Profit €3.80 SP 14/1
Price Difference: There were 3 non runners which reduced my price from 28.0 to 21.77 so the price difference was +6.77

I also have an unmatched bet placed because i dont know if ill be back in time
2.40 Worcester Code 30.0 Betfair Liability €116 Profit €3.80 Unmatched

This horse was a non runner

3.10 Worcester Heathers Girl 50.0 Betfair Liability €196.00 Profit €3.80
Result Brought Down Profit €3.80 SP 40/1
Price Difference +9.0

dvdfan

3.20 Stratford Butler Service 75.0 Betfair Liability €296.00 Profit €3.80

Result 9th of 12 profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference +41.0

dvdfan

3.40 Worcester Marys Moment Place Lay 65.0 Betfair Liability €256.00 Profit €3.80

Wouldnt normally place horses when laying but this horse is soo bad id be very surprised if she wasnt last by a distance

She surprised me by beating 3 other horses
Result 10th of 13 Profit €3.80 SP 80/1

dvdfan

4.40 Worcester Lowe Go 34.0 Betfair Liability €132.00 Profit €3.80

7.40 Chepstow Shivebella Betfair 42.0 Liability €164.00 Profit €3.80 NB [CURRENTLY UNMATCHED]

Well im off for a few pints now, look after my horses while im gone, ill post a summary of todays results tommorrow but theres still life in the Old dog yet......eh Fade

p.s i might not have any bets 2morrow due to work

dvdfan

dvdfan wrote:

4.40 Worcester Lowe Go 34.0 Betfair Liability €132.00 Profit €3.80
Result Pulled Up Profit €3.80 SP 20/1
Price Difference +13.0

7.40 Chepstow Shivebella Betfair 42.0 Liability €164.00 Profit €3.80 NB [CURRENTLY UNMATCHED]

This bet was unmatched

Well im off for a few pints now, look after my horses while im gone, ill post a summary of todays results tommorrow but theres still life in the Old dog yet......eh Fade

p.s i might not have any bets 2morrow due to work

.

dvdfan

Summary

Wednesday 5th July Summary:

5 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€19.00
Pts Profit: +5

Overall Profit Day 4:
22 Selections 22 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€83.60
pts Profit: +22

dvdfan

6.50 Haydock Cate Washington 46.44 Betfair Liability €181.74 Profit €3.80

Result 9th Of 12th Profit €3.80 SP 50/1
Price Difference -3.54

dvdfan

8.40 Beverley Plenty Cried Wolfe 20.0 Betfair Liability €76.00 Profit €3.80

This was a non runner

dvdfan

8.50 Haydock Zingbat 55.0 Betfair Liability €270.00 Profit €3.80
Result 9th of 10 Profit €3.80 SP 50/1
Price Difference = +4.0

dvdfan

9.10 Beverley Quintin 16.5 Betfair Liability €132.00 Profit €3.80

This horse has no hope, last i think!

Result 5th of 8 Profit €3.80 SP 16/1
Price Difference +0.5

dvdfan

Summary

Friday 7th July Summary:

3 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€11.40
Pts Profit: +3

Overall Profit Day 5:
25 Selections 25 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€95.00
pts Profit: +25

dvdfan

Tommorrow ill be stuck for time and wont have time to post all my lays as i get the price on betfair so ill name all the horses ill be trying to lay. The criteria is usually that i will not lay the horse unless i can get it at 20 points or less on Betfair than my tissue price and in the case of 2 horses being available in the same race where ive selected 2 ill always choose the first horse named. I dont think ill be laying Sunday either and will probably give a summary Monday.

2.15 Beverley Wakey Wizzard Tissue Price 66/1
Layed @ 30.0 Betfair Liability €116.00 Profit €3.80
Result 5th of 7 Profit €3.80 SP 11/1
Price Difference +18.0

2.25 Leicester Night Rainbow & Forces Sweetheart Tissue Prices 150/1 & 100/1
Layed Forces Sweetheart @ 29.0 Betfair Liability €112.00 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 12 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference -5.0

3.00 Leicester Frank Leonard Tissue Price 50/1
Layed Lenard Frank @ 38.0 Betfair Liability €148.00 Profit €3.80

4.40 Leicester Fairytale of New York & Fluted Crystal Tissue Prices 250/1 & 66/1

5.25 Sandown Altihar & Zarif Tissue Prices 66/1 & 66/1
Layed @ 44.0 Betfair Liability €172.00 Profit €3.80

5.45 Haydock Explode Tissue Price 150/1
6.10 Nottingham Diffidon & Summer Force Tissue Price 200/1 & 100/1
6.40 Nottingham Maylea Gold Tissue Price 66/1
7.00 Carlisle Devilfishpoker.com Tissue Price 100/1
8.00 Carlise Flick n Flack & Happy Harry Tissue Price 250/1 & 100/1
8.30 Carlisle Mayadeen Tissue Price 66/1

dvdfan

dvdfan wrote:

Tommorrow ill be stuck for time and wont have time to post all my lays as i get the price on betfair so ill name all the horses ill be trying to lay. The criteria is usually that i will not lay the horse unless i can get it at 20 points or less on Betfair than my tissue price and in the case of 2 horses being available in the same race where ive selected 2 ill always choose the first horse named. I dont think ill be laying Sunday either and will probably give a summary Monday.

2.15 Beverley Wakey Wizzard Tissue Price 66/1
Layed @ 30.0 Betfair Liability €116.00 Profit €3.80
Result 5th of 7 Profit €3.80 SP 11/1
Price Difference +18.0

2.25 Leicester Night Rainbow & Forces Sweetheart Tissue Prices 150/1 & 100/1
Layed Forces Sweetheart @ 29.0 Betfair Liability €112.00 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 12 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference -5.0

3.00 Leicester Frank Leonard Tissue Price 50/1
Layed Lenard Frank @ 38.0 Betfair Liability €148.00 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 7 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference

4.40 Leicester Fairytale of New York & Fluted Crystal Tissue Prices 250/1 & 66/1
No Bet

5.25 Sandown Altihar & Zarif Tissue Prices 66/1 & 66/1
Layed Altihar @ 44.0 Betfair Liability €172.00 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 11 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference +10.0

Never got any of the bets below matched because i couldnt get near a pc. Just out of interest they were all well beaten and none of them placed.

5.45 Haydock Explode Tissue Price 150/1
6.10 Nottingham Diffidon & Summer Force Tissue Price 200/1 & 100/1
6.40 Nottingham Maylea Gold Tissue Price 66/1
7.00 Carlisle Devilfishpoker.com Tissue Price 100/1
8.00 Carlise Flick n Flack & Happy Harry Tissue Price 250/1 & 100/1
8.30 Carlisle Mayadeen Tissue Price 66/1

.

dvdfan

Saturday 8th July Summary:

4 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€15.20
Pts Profit: +4

Overall Profit Day 6:
29 Selections 29 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€110.20
pts Profit: +29

.

dvdfan

8.20 Ripon Rondo Tissue Price 66/1
Layed Rondo @ 29.0 Betfair Liability €112.00 Profit €3.80
Result 7th of 7 Profit €3.80 SP 25/1
Price Difference +3.0

8.35 Windsor HazelNut Tissue Price 100/1
Layed Hazelnut @ 16.0 Betfair Liability €60.00 Profit €3.80
Result 13th of 13 Profit €3.80 SP 14/1
Price Difference +1.0

8.50 Ripon Ocean Sunrise Tissue Price 200/1
Layed Ocean Sunrise @ 29.0 Betfair Liability €112.00 Profit €3.80
Result 12th of 12 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Price Difference -5.0

3 last places today and again none even placed from 32 runners, when i build up more stats may consider laying them in the place market rather than the win market to drastically reduce my liability, thats if i can keep consistent over a long period

dvdfan

Monday 10th July Summary:

3 Selections all lost with none placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€11.40
Pts Profit: +3

Overall Profit Day 7:
32 Selections 32 losers 0 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€121.60
pts Profit: +32

.

dvdfan

Heres all tommorrows runners, working until 5 so i dont know how many ill get layed.

3.30 Southwell Gibson Tissue Price 66/1 RP Price 50/1
No Bet, couldnt get the right price - finished 2nd 50/1

3.45 Pontefract Thunderwing Tissue Price 66/1 RP Price 33/1
No Bet, cant get right price - Finished 10th

4.30 Southwell Mungo Gerry Tissue Price 66/1 RP Price 12/1
Layed @ 23.20 Betfair Liability €92.81 Profit €3.80
Result 10th of 14 Profit €3.80 SP 14/1
Price Difference +8.20

4.45 Pontefract Tanmeya Tissue Price 100/1 RP Price 66/1 (Finished Last)
5.00 Southwell Dancing Moonlight 66/1 RP Price 100/1 (Finished 10th)
looks highly unlikely i will get a price on either of the 2 above so 2 more no bets

6.40 Uttoxeter Zailann Tissue Price 150/1 RP Price 20/1
Layed @ 38.0 Betfair Liability €148.00 Profit €3.80
His form of 3rd and 4th is flattering considering he was beaten so far in both with McCoy on board and now stepping up in class just cant understand why he is so small a price
Result 5th of 9 Profit €3.80 SP 33/1
Managed to finish 5th but still 28 lengths off the winner, might get another lay out of him yet
Price Difference + 4.0

7.10 Uttoxeter Top Gale 150/1 RP Price 25/1
Layed @ 28.0 Betfair Liability €108.00 Profit €3.80
To be honest id be happy laying this horse to place at 5.9, hasnt a hope
Result 2nd Profit €3.80 SP 14/1
I got this one sooo wrong, beaten by a short head and lucky for me i didnt decide to do it each way
Price Difference +13.0

7.20 Wolverhampton Maya’s Prince Tissue Price 200/1 RP Price 33/1
Price Not Available - No Bet (Horse finished 10th)

8.40 Uttoxeter Waynes World 100/1 RP Price 25/1
Layed @ 23.0 Batfair Liability €88.00 Profit €3.80
All of his best form has come in Chase and hes last 3 over hurdles was poor, expect another poor show back over hurdles and think hes price incorrectly reflects his chase form.
Result 3rd of 17th Profit €3.80
Another one wrong, all in all this was my only bad day so far but yet ive still have a clean sweep although 2 placed, which is worrying but to be expected now and then. I know i will get a winner eventually but id like to build a good run first

9.20 Wolverhampton Mels Moment 250/1 RP Price 25/1
No Bet Price was not available - Finished 10th

dvdfan

Tuesday 11th July Summary:

4 Selections all lost with 2 placed.
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€15.20
Pts Profit: +4

Overall Profit Day 8:
36 Selections 36 losers 2 placed
To Actual Stakes(€3.80): +€136.80
pts Profit: +36

.:rolleyes: