Flat Ratings

masterK

I'm going to give my ratings system another bash, I've collated stats from over 400 flat races this year and have rejigged my system based on this data. I've been paper trading since the beginning of the month where I've had a profit of 27 points from 59 races. I haven't changed my software yet to produce a staking plan so will either back 5 or 10 points per selection until I do.

Selection:
Nautical - 8:30 Windsor 5pts win 2nd
H Harrison - 8:15 Warwick 5pts win 3rd
Mango Mischief - 8:45 Warwick 10 pts win 2nd

All placed but no winners so a loss of 20 for the day.

Profit/Loss: -20

masterK

Tuesday:

Thirsk
2:55 Banjo Patterson 5pts win Unpl
4:40 Hulla Balew 5pts win 1st +17.5
5:10 Maneki Neko 5pts win 1st + 25

Ascot
3:10 La Cucharacha 5pts win Unpl
3:50 Araafa 10 pts win 1st +20

Daily Profit/Loss +52.5
Overall Profit/Loss +32.5

masterK

Opening Profit: +32.5

Wednesday

Ascot
2:35 Jeremy 5pts
3:10 Soviet Song 10pts
4:25 Pinpoint 2.5pts, Pride of Nation 2.5pts (joint top rated)
5:30 Red Evie 5pts

Ripon
7:40 Damika 5pts
8:10 Little Jimbob 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Opening Profit: +32.5

Wednesday

Ascot
2:35 Jeremy 5pts 1st +22.5
3:10 Soviet Song 10pts 1st +13.75
4:25 Pinpoint 2.5pts, Pride of Nation 2.5pts (joint top rated) Unpl
5:30 Red Evie 5pts 1st +25

Ripon
7:40 Damika 5pts 2nd
8:10 Little Jimbob 5pts 2nd

A decent day yesterday with 3 winners and 2 seconds from 6 selections.

Daily Profit: +46.75
Overall Profit: +79.25
Points Staked to Date: 85
Return On Investment: +93.23%

masterK

Thursday

Ascot:
3:10 Alessandria 5pts
3:50 Distinction 5pts
4:25 Sir Gerrard 5pts
4:55 Ivy Creek 5pts
5:30 Notibility, Grey Boy 2.5 pts each

Ripon
4:00 Markinton 5pts
4:35 Jubilee Street 5pts

Beverley
7:50 Days of My Life 5pts
8:50 And Again 5pts

Crumbs

masterK wrote:

Ascot:
3:10 Alessandria 5pts

Starts and ends with a vowel running at a track that begins with a vowel.

masterK wrote:

Ripon
4:35 Jubilee Street 5pts

Two pairs of double-letters.

Pfft, you're pretty much just copying the Crumbs System, right?

(Although good going so far.)

masterK

I didn't think you'd notice, I thought I'd throw in a few others that didn't fit into the Crumbs system to avoid suspicion.

masterK

masterK wrote:

Thursday

Ascot:
3:10 Alessandria 5pts Unpl
3:50 Distinction 5pts 3rd
4:25 Sir Gerrard 5pts 1st +22.5
4:55 Ivy Creek 5pts Unpl
5:30 Notibility, Grey Boy 2.5 pts each Unpl

Ripon
4:00 Markinton 5pts Unpl
4:35 Jubilee Street 5pts Unpl

Beverley
7:50 Days of My Life 5pts 1st +4
8:50 And Again 5pts Unpl

Daily Profit: -8.5
Overall Profit: +70.75
Points Staked to Date: 130
Return On Investment: +54.42%

wb

Good Stuff MasterK. Small loss today, but hopefully just a blip. I have been enjoying following this. Very Interesting. Keep it up

masterK

Cheers wbailey, I plan on paper trading for another couple of weeks and if things are still going well I'll start backing them myself and will use Betfair instead of SP, which should be a big boost to profits.

masterK

Friday

Ascot
3:10 Papal Bull 5pts
3:50 Silcas Sister 5pts
4:25 Star of Light 5pts
5:30 Pearly King 5pts

Ayr
4:10 Moody Tunes 5pts
4:45 Topatoo 10pts

Redcar
4:00 Red Romeo 5pts

Goodwood
8:25 Daniella 5pts
8:55 Full Victory 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Friday

Ascot
3:10 Papal Bull 5pts 1st +6.25
3:50 Silcas Sister 5pts Unpl
4:25 Star of Light 5pts Unpl
5:30 Pearly King 5pts Unpl

Ayr
4:10 Moody Tunes 5pts Unpl
4:45 Topatoo 10pts Unpl

Redcar
4:00 Red Romeo 5pts Unpl

Goodwood
8:25 Daniella 5pts 1st +27.5
8:55 Full Victory 5pts Unpl

Daily Profit: -6.25
Overall Profit: +64.55
Points Staked to Date: 230
Return On Investment: +28.06%

masterK

Saturday

Ascot
3:05 Maraahel 5pts 1st +22.5
4:25 Firenze 5pts
4:55 Balkan Knight 5pts

Newmarket
2:10 Cactus King 10 pts Unpl
2:40 Zidane 10pts 1st +20
3:15 Caressed 5pts 1st +5
3:50 Rochdale 5pts

Ayr
2:55 Whitethorne 5pts Unpl
3:25 Glencairn Star 5pts 1st +20
5:05 Blazing heights 5pts

scojones

This is looking very promising masterK. Hulla Ballew is racing again today in Ayr. I missed it lto as I wasn't online and didn't see the horse tracker email (man, if I had a euro for every time this happens....), did you see that race and was it a convincing win?

masterK

I seen the race, it was a tough race, she looked like being headed close home but stuck on to get up, it will be tough for her today to win with a penalty and so soon after a hard race.

fade2black

masterK wrote:

Saturday

Ascot
3:05 Maraahel 5pts
4:25 Firenze 5pts
4:55 Balkan Knight 5pts

Newmarket
2:10 Cactus King 10 pts
2:40 Zidane 10pts
3:15 Caressed 5pts
3:50 Rochdale 5pts

Ayr
2:55 Whitethorne 5pts
3:25 Glencairn Star 5pts
5:05 Blazing heights 5pts

I have him in a cheeky little multiple bet involving firenze and the fonz later. That was a most impressive win.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

I have him in a cheeky little multiple bet involving firenze and the fonz later. That was a most impressive win.

Nice one Keith, the jockey never had to touch the horse. Was somewhat lucky to get the gap but nicely done.

I passed the fonz onto the auld lad boss, we're doomed now!

masterK

masterK wrote:

Saturday

Ascot
3:05 Maraahel 5pts 1st +22.5
4:25 Firenze 5pts 2nd
4:55 Balkan Knight 5pts Unpl

Newmarket
2:10 Cactus King 10 pts Unpl
2:40 Zidane 10pts 1st +20
3:15 Caressed 5pts 1st +5
3:50 Rochdale 5pts 3rd

Ayr
2:55 Whitethorne 5pts Unpl
3:25 Glencairn Star 5pts 1st +20
5:05 Blazing heights 5pts 2nd

Daily Profit: +37.5
Overall Profit: +102.05
Points Staked to Date: 290
Return On Investment: +35.18%

masterK

Monday

Windsor:

Going change means selections are now
7:40 Burning Incense 5pts
8:10 Don Pietro 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Monday

Windsor:
7:40 Burning Incense 5pts 1st +13.75
8:10 Don Pietro 5pts Unpl

Daily Profit: +8.75
Overall Profit: +110.8
Points Staked to Date: 300
Return On Investment: +36.93%

masterK

Tuesday:

Beverley:
3:15 Little Jimbob 5pts
3:45 Bo McGinty 5pts

Newbury
7:30 Johannes 5pts
8:30 Solva 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Tuesday:

Beverley:
3:15 Little Jimbob 5pts Unpl
3:45 Bo McGinty 5pts 1st +20

Newbury
7:30 Johannes 5pts Unpl
8:30 Solva 5pts 2nd

Daily Profit: +5
Overall Profit: +115.8
Points Staked to Date: 320
Return On Investment: +36.18%

Corben Dallas

MK! >did u see the Solva race!!!! :O

Frankie had it sewn up a furlong out, battled past teh v progressive Babcary.......then Kalhua Kiss lit the after burners. havent seen finishing pace like that in a long while. KK got up in the last stide, couldnt have left it any later.
**** +somebody laid KK a furlong out and 200-1, +this was matched at £20!!!!!!!
OUCH!

masterK

Corben Dallas wrote:

MK! >did u see the Solva race!!!! :O

Frankie had it sewn up a furlong out battle past teh v progressive Babcary.......then Kalhua Kiss lit the after burners. havent seen finishing pace like that in a long while. KK got up in the last stide, couldnt have left it any later.
**** +somebody laid KK a furlong out and 200-1, +this was matched at £20!!!!!!!
OUCH!

I seen it, Solva was just all out, he nearly walked over the line. I think frankie went for home a little to soon. Kalhua Kiss really finished like a train.

masterK

Wednesday:

Not too confident today, most of my picks are just barely top rated, some very competitive racing.

Carlisle:
3:20 Freeloader: 10pts
3:50 Nessen Dorma 5pts
4:20 Bahamian Duke 5pts
4:50 Riquewir 5pts

Salisbury
4:30 Skidrow 5pts
5:00 Best Prospect 5pts

Extra Salisbury Selection
3:30 Dream Champion 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Wednesday:

Not too confident today, most of my picks are just barely top rated, some very competitive racing.

Carlisle:
3:20 Freeloader: 10pts Unpl
3:50 Nessen Dorma 5pts Unpl
4:20 Bahamian Duke 5pts 3rd
4:50 Riquewir 5pts Unpl

Salisbury
4:30 Skidrow 5pts Unpl
5:00 Best Prospect 5pts Unpl

Extra Salisbury Selection
3:30 Dream Champion 5pts 2nd

As I suspected a thoroughly miserable day, easiest the worst so far. I'm hoping to find time in the next few weeks to introduce a staking plan with more points staked the more the top rated is ahead in my ratings. In a couple of todays races the top 4 or 5 were within a 1 point of each other in the my ratings.

Daily Profit: -40
Overall Profit: +75.8
Points Staked to Date: 360
Return On Investment: +21.05%

masterK

Thursday:

Salisbury
3:40 Malapropism 5pts

Newcastle
3:20 Rio Riva 5pts
3:50 Pictavia 5pts

Leicester
8:15 Days of my Life 10pts
8:45 Pagan Crest 5pts

Hamilton
8:00 Loch Verdi 5pts
9:00 Little Miss Gracie 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Thursday:

Salisbury
3:40 Malapropism 5pts 2nd

Newcastle
3:20 Rio Riva 5pts unpl
3:50 Pictavia 5pts 1st +4.55

Leicester
8:15 Days of my Life 10pts 1st +4.44
8:45 Pagan Crest 5pts 1st + 9.38

Hamilton
8:00 Loch Verdi 5pts 1st +3.33
9:00 Little Miss Gracie 5pts 2nd

Daily Profit: +6.7
Overall Profit: +82.5
Points Staked to Date: 400
Return On Investment: +20.65%

masterK

Friday

Newcastle
7:15 Pieter Breughel 5pts
8:20 Days of My Life 10pts

Newmarket
7:35 Gower Song 10pts
8:05 Gimasha 5pts
8:40 Dragon Slayer 5pts
9:10 Fantasy Explorer 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Friday

Newcastle
7:15 Pieter Breughel 5pts Unpl
8:20 Days of My Life 10pts Unpl

Newmarket
7:35 Gower Song 10pts 1st +18.75
8:05 Gimasha 5pts 3rd
8:40 Dragon Slayer 5pts 1st +25
9:10 Fantasy Explorer 5pts 1st +6.88

Daily Profit: +30.63
Overall Profit: +113.13
Points Staked to Date: 440
Return On Investment: +25.71%

Genco

Great performance today MasterK - given the run of results.

masterK

Cheers Genco, a decent night last night, hopefully today will be even better:

Saturday:

Newcastle
2:45 Algharb 5pts
3:55 Against The Grain 5pts
4:55 Trouble Mountain 5pts
5:25 Prince Evelith 5pts

Newmarket
3:00 Ouninpohja 5pts
3:35 Nayyir 5pts
4:05 Danetime Lord 5pts
4:35 Fantastisch 5pts

Windsor
2:35 Librettist 5pts
3:10 Swinbrook 5pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

Cheers Genco, a decent night last night, hopefully today will be even better:

Saturday:

Newcastle
2:45 Algharb 5pts Unpl
3:55 Against The Grain 5pts Unpl
4:55 Trouble Mountain 5pts 3rd
5:25 Prince Evelith 5pts 1st +13.75

Newmarket
3:00 Ouninpohja 5pts 2nd
3:35 Nayyir 5pts 2nd
4:05 Danetime Lord 5pts Unpl
4:35 Fantastisch 5pts Unpl

Windsor
2:35 Librettist 5pts 1st +2
3:10 Swinbrook 5pts Unpl

Daily Profit: -24.25
Overall Profit: +88.88
Points Staked to Date: 490
Return On Investment: +18.13%

Some unlucky losers to keep an eye on next time out, both Swinbrook and Ouninpohja couldn't find a gap when they needed one.

masterK

Monday

Pontefract
3:45 Folga 5pts

Windsor
7:40 Home Sweet Home 10pts
8:10 Cusoon 5pts

opr

All winners - very nice.

masterK

Cheers opr, a very pleasing day.

masterK wrote:

Monday

Pontefract
3:45 Folga 5pts 1st +12.5

Windsor
7:40 Home Sweet Home 10pts 1st +30.0
8:10 Cusoon 5pts 1st +12.5

Daily Profit: +55
Overall Profit: +143.88
Points Staked to Date: 510
Return On Investment: +28.21%

scojones

Nicely done Keith!

Corben Dallas

V nicely tipped.....u scored a hatrick!
impressive run from Home Sweet.

masterK

Thanks lads, hopefully the results will be more consistent, it's been one good day followed by a bad one for the last week.

Tuesday

Thirsk
8:30 Minister of State 5pts

[nicK]

masterK wrote:

Thanks lads, hopefully the results will be more consistent, it's been one good day followed by a bad one for the last week.

Tuesday

Thirsk
8:30 Minister of State 5pts

on a roll!

your system must be on par with CrumbSystem 3000 by now.. great stuff, keep it up..

scojones

Nice one Keith! (I seem to be saying this alot lately).

masterK

Cheers guys. Nick I could only dream of my system ever getting close to the crumbs system.

masterK wrote:

Tuesday

Thirsk
8:30 Minister of State 5pts 1st +6.88

Daily Profit: +6.88
Overall Profit: +150.76
Points Staked to Date: 515
Return On Investment: +29.27%

masterK

I'm going to test out a new staking plan for the next few days

Thursday

Newbury
7:35 Ingratitude 9pts
8:45 River Kirov 9pts

Epsom
7:50 Katiypour 9pts

masterK

masterK wrote:

I'm going to test out a new staking plan for the next few days

Thursday

Newbury
7:35 Ingratitude 9pts unpl
8:45 River Kirov 9pts unpl

Epsom
7:50 Katiypour 9pts unpl

Typically as soon as I start to up the stakes a bit things go pear shaped.

Daily Profit: -27
Overall Profit: +123.76
Points Staked to Date: 542
Return On Investment: +22.83%

masterK

Friday

Sandown
2:05 Royal Challenge 3pts

Haydock
8:20 Lucky Leo 3pts

Beverley
7:40 Riley Boys 6pts

scojones

masterK wrote:

Typically as soon as I start to up the stakes a bit things go pear shaped.

Murphy's law my friend.

Corben Dallas

Newbury
7:35 Ingratitude 9pts unpl
>top rated, top weight, Handicapper has him under his thumb, could only travel well enough with the pack, when they went 4 home, he went backwards, maybe horse has talent but wont be doing any winning until serious drop in rating/wieghts.
8:45 River Kirov 9pts unpl
didnt see, race won 1/2 by 2x 33-1's figure at all.
Epsom
7:50 Katiypour 9pts unpl
Seb Sanders got a tune out of this, was shaping up, but couldnt trouble the top 3, seems to have most potential/ progresive of last nights picks, notebook!
Mr K<<<< pls continue to do a 10pts/5pts(3/6/9etc) ratings selcetion to give us an idea of what yur more fancied, standout rated horses are, Excellent thread Mr K!

masterK

Only seen the River Kirov race, went for home a long way out and set the race up for fast finishers.

The staking plan I've started to use goes from 3-18 points in factors of 3 depending on how far ahead my top rated selection is. It's unlikely there'll be many if any 18 pointers and not a huge amount of 15 either.

masterK

masterK wrote:

Friday

Sandown
2:05 Royal Challenge 3pts 2nd

Haydock
8:20 Lucky Leo 3pts 2nd

Beverley
7:40 Riley Boys 6pts 2nd

What a frustrating day, not so much having 3 seconds but the manner of them. Both Riley Boys and much more obviously Lucky Leo were denied a run, Daryll Holland didn't exactly cover himself in glory, would have definitely won. Keep the eyes out for him next time.

Daily Profit: -12
Overall Profit: +111.76
Points Staked to Date: 554
Return On Investment: +20.17%

masterK

Saturday

Sandown

02:05 Pivotal Point 3pts
02:35 Hinterland 3pts
03:15 David Junior 9pts
04:20 La Mottie 15pts
04:50 Damika 6pts
05:25 Mystic Storm 6pts

Haydock
02:20 Prowess 6pts
02:50 Princess Nada 3pts
03:30 Signatory 3pts
04:05 Somnus 3pts
04:35 Burning Incense 18pts

Leicester
03:35 Rationale 3pts
04:10 Wannabe Posh 3pts

81 points at stake so Saturday could have a massive say in the overall profit/loss.

Genco

Know that feeling MasterK.

I took the day off to make it a long weekend and ended up with a severe case of seconditis today also and most of them by a neck or shd to rub it in even more

Lose: BACK (170763057)
14:55 Warwick - Win Market - 2 Jane of Arc

Lose: BACK (170769523)
15:30 Warwick - Win Market - 4 Grand Entrance

Lose: BACK (170761161)
15:40 Southwell - Win Market - 2 Romil Star

Lose: BACK (170705317)
16:05 Warwick - Win Market - 7 Ruby's Dream

Lose: BACK (170786584)
16:15 Southwell - Win Market - 6 Born Wild

Lose: BACK (170798387)
16:40 Warwick - Win Market - 1 Queen Cobra
Technically 3rditis on that one

Lose: BACK (170799804)
17:45 Warwick - Win Market - 4 Figaro's Quest

Lose: BACK (170725302)
18:30 Bellewstown - Win Market - 6 Ai Hawa

Lose: BACK (170705567)
19:40 Beverley - Win Market - 1 Riley Boys

Lose: BACK (170799439)
20:10 Beverley - Win Market - 4 Makshoof

Lose: BACK (170719570)
20:20 Haydock - Win Market - 8 Lucky Leo

Lose: BACK (170799356)
20:50 Haydock - Win Market - 2 Karlani
Technically 3rditis again

:mad: :mad: :mad: