Latest MRBI Poll

Pythia

So what does everyone think of the latest poll?

Irish Times/MRBI Poll: May 19th 2006

Fianna Fail 31% (-6)
Fine Gael 28% (+4)
Labour 15% (-1)
Sinn Fein 9% (-)
Green 5% (+1)
PD 3% (-)
Others 9% (+1)

Things are certainly looking up for FG!

New_Departure06

There's only one poll that counts.

I prefer the Red C polls to MRBI. Red C uses telephone polling whereas MRBI uses face-to-face. The Red C poll was the most accurate before the local elections.

Also, Red C has people in it that were involved in ICM in the UK and the ICM poll in Ireland in 2002 was the most accurate in predicting the GE result.

Also remember that FG has had a gone Ard Fheis and parties tend to get a boost after them. After Rabbitte's first Labour one they rose to 22% and overtook Labour. That quickly faded.

Don't count your chickens!

crosstownk

Interesting. A bit surprised to see FF down by 6 (down yes but 6? That will concern them a bit) and GP going up one rather than Lab?

homah_7ft

Has anyone here ever been polled? I'm surprised they produce any results at all

crosstownk

Been polled several times for the JNRLI but never for an MRBI poll.

New_Departure06

A polling company rang me a few years back but when they asked me my age and I told them they said actually we have already got enough people of that age so they had nothing to ask me.

homah_7ft

That poll does look good for FG but it's a long way to go yet. As New Departure said there is only one poll that counts. The exit poll of course

I'm guessing it's not like the telephone poll that I had where they were asking me about politics in between asking me what beer/lager I had in the last month.

NewDubliner

crosstownk wrote:

Interesting. A bit surprised to see FF down by 6 (down yes but 6?

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

The_Minister

I notice, Pythia, that you didn't include the figures on party leaders. I wonder why?

Pythia

Cos I took the figures off another website which didn't mention it

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=12026

I was not aware there was a leadership poll too.

homah_7ft

Firespinner wrote:

I notice, Pythia, that you didn't include the figures on party leaders. I wonder why?

Why? How did Enda do?

Dirk Gently

How are the blue shirts actually gaining support after Endas disaster of a speech and mad Dr.Bills appearance on the late late show?

Meh, I suppose it’s a protest against FF and the PDs. It's not like there is any real alternative on offer. The blue shirts and the smoked salmon socialists v's finna fiddle and the privatisation party. Hopefully the blue shirts and Labour can come up with some kind of alternative between now and election time to actually give voters a choice.
Considering a blue shirt youth member posted the poll I’ll take it with a pinch of salt. Any other polls indicating different statistics or is this an accurate reflection of peoples choices as things stand?

Santa Claus

Sad thing is that while FF being down 6% looks good for FG, Bertie loves a challenge and polls like this will only further spur the party faithful on to get the votes for Bertie.

Enda is a nice enough guy, but I think Richard Bruton would make a much better party leader...he seems to know when to say nothing rather than enda who feels he needs to comment on almost everything.

Sadly, I think the opposition will end up losing the election for themselves again rather than FF having to win it (of course I hope I'm proved wrong).

And while I'm on the subject of hopes, maybe this election might see the end of the Pointless Democrats !

Flex

I hope to God Fine Gael dont get into power. Ill be voting Fianna Fail

Hotblack Desiato

NewDubliner wrote:

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

I predict an FF meltdown in Dublin, due in no small part to decentralisation. Yes civil servants may be gagged, but we still have votes, and our families have even more votes.

cyclopath2001

Ivor Calally's, oversight of the dreadful Howth Road QBC and Cycle Lane (runs past his office) comes to mind.

mickcarroll10

NewDubliner wrote:

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

What are you talking about?

Hotblack Desiato

Idiotic, uncosted, decentralisation plan not in accordance with spatial strategy.
Prioritising the Western Rail Corridor monument to stupidity over Dublin area commuter routes which would actually be *used*.
Giving Eamon O'Cuiv free rein to mouth off about how the Wesht never gets anything atall atall.
Building a toll free ring road in Cork when Dublin STILL only has an incomplete, tolled M50.
Etc.

Pythia

clown bag wrote:

Considering a blue shirt youth member posted the poll I’ll take it with a pinch of salt.

I didn't conduct the poll. Just because I posted it doesn't mean it's devalued.

ISAW

ninja900 wrote:

Idiotic, uncosted, decentralisation plan not in accordance with spatial strategy.
Prioritising the Western Rail Corridor monument to stupidity over Dublin area commuter routes which would actually be *used*.
Giving Eamon O'Cuiv free rein to mouth off about how the Wesht never gets anything atall atall.
Building a toll free ring road in Cork when Dublin STILL only has an incomplete, tolled M50.
Etc.

And this will in your view cost FF how many seats in Dublin?
And FF will as a consequence win NO extra seats outside Dublin?
You really think FF would adopt a country wide policy which they are certain will cost them seats?
Mind you Dukes did similar in FG and it cost him the leadership!

bottlerocket

Anyone think the Labour vote would be a bit higher if they weren't committed to going in with FG? Likewise with FF going in with the PD's? Personally I would prefer a FF/Lab coalition but would not vote for any of the main parties are at the moment due to who their preferred government partners are at the moment. And yeah, FF and PD are keeping their options open right now, but if the numbers add up they'll be in again for another 5 years.

Hotblack Desiato

ISAW:
1. My crystal ball needs a shine, but they WILL almost certainly lose seats. Not good given the economic boom.
2. Not on the basis of these poll numbers, but we'll see. Decentralisation was supposed to bring them a vote bonanza in the local elections, but it didn't.
3. You're making the mistake of assuming that logic applies to their choices of policy.
4. Bertie is getting rattled, e.g. his remarks about Willie Walsh and co.

NewDubliner

mickcarroll10 wrote:

What are you talking about?

Stealing (or is it asset-stripping?) public service jobs from Dublin. Constantly telling Dubliners that they have a lower quality of life than non-Dubliners.

FF has turned its back on Dublin.

The_Minister

homah_7ft wrote:

Why? How did Enda do?

****. As always. Beef casserole has more charisma.

Dirk Gently

Pythia wrote:

I didn't conduct the poll. Just because I posted it doesn't mean it's devalued.

I know you didn't conduct the poll, just seeing a blueshirt post the results of one poll makes me question if the poll is an accurate reflection of peoples opinions or whether it is simply the most favourable towards FG from a wide range of similar polls. I'm not saying it’s not accurate, I'm just wary of why this poll was chosen in isolation by a blueshirt member.

Dirk Gently

bottlerocket wrote:

Anyone think the Labour vote would be a bit higher if they weren't committed to going in with FG? Likewise with FF going in with the PD's? Personally I would prefer a FF/Lab coalition but would not vote for any of the main parties are at the moment due to who their preferred government partners are at the moment. And yeah, FF and PD are keeping their options open right now, but if the numbers add up they'll be in again for another 5 years.

I reckon labours alliance with the blueshrts is definetly costing them votes.

The_Minister

clown bag wrote:

I know you didn't conduct the poll, just seeing a blueshirt post the results of one poll makes me question if the poll is an accurate reflection of peoples opinions or whether it is simply the most favourable towards FG from a wide range of similar polls. I'm not saying it’s not accurate, I'm just wary of why this poll was chosen in isolation by a blueshirt member.

In fairness to Pythia it is a reputable polling company, and is one of the most respected in Ireland. That's why the results get on the 9 o'clock news.

oscarBravo

Firespinner wrote:

Beef casserole has more carisma.

Beef casserole drives a Mitsubishi?

NewDubliner

clown bag wrote:

I reckon labours alliance with the blueshrts is definetly costing them votes.

Just as the PD alliance with FF will hurt FF.

Any potential FF voter would do well to check before they vote if the 'meat in the sandwich' party will be brought into government by FF.

homah_7ft

Firespinner wrote:

****. As always. Beef casserole has more charisma.

Hehe. And what percentage did he get?

The_Minister

homah_7ft wrote:

Hehe. And what percentage did he get?

My memory has failed me but I think it was only in the 30's will Bertie was in the 50's. (it was on the RTÉ news)

Diorraing

Santa Claus wrote:

Enda is a nice enough guy, but I think Richard Bruton would make a much better party leader...he seems to know when to say nothing rather than enda who feels he needs to comment on almost everything.

His brother is in the reform movement, that raises interesting questions about the party as a whole

And while I'm on the subject of hopes, maybe this election might see the end of the Pointless Democrats!

Agreed

New_Departure06

I hope that this will make the govt desperate enough to bring immigration into the next election campaign. That will get back a certain % of the lost FF votes.

fly_agaric

ISAW wrote:

You really think FF would adopt a country wide policy which they are certain will cost them seats?

No. I suppose the calculation was that they would gain lots of seats outside Dublin for their policies and that blowback in Dublin would be minimal thanks to the effects of the economic boom on many peoples' wallets.
Can't wait for the election. I'm dying to see how Bertie does in D. Central!

constitutionus

Firespinner wrote:

In fairness to Pythia it is a reputable polling company, and is one of the most respected in Ireland. That's why the results get on the 9 o'clock news.

i cant remember any of the actual percentages (was half asleep on the bus into work) but i do know ALL the parties leaders approval ratings were down except for the greens trevor sargent (i know i havent a clue why either)

i admit to being sceptical about these results for the parties mainly because what people say to someone and what they do in a private election boot is two totally different things . im not saying its not a handy guide but in the case of say sinn fein i doubt you'd actually get all the people who'll vote for em to admit it. the same way no one copped the citizen referendum. 50/50 two horse race to 5 to 1 in favor is a hell of a difference

just hearing the results on radio now as i type, pat down 7 bertie down 4 enda static gerry down 1 mary down 5 and trevor up 3

Cork

NewDubliner wrote:

Stealing (or is it asset-stripping?) public service jobs from Dublin. Constantly telling Dubliners that they have a lower quality of life than non-Dubliners.
FF has turned its back on Dublin.

Dublin port Tunnel, Ring Road, Luas?

Dublin has done pretty well.

Can't see Dubliners choosing Mayo Enda over Dublin Bertie.

NewDubliner

Cork wrote:

Dublin port Tunnel, Ring Road, Luas?

The Dublin voter is likely to be pre-occupied with the issues that he/she sees and hears about today. There's little good publicity for FF or the PDs they're a recurring train-wreck from a PR point of view.

Dublin Port Tunnel - project has failed to meet its objectives. It's late, over-budget and will not take all types of truck.

Ring Road - Westlink Toll Bridge, Red Cow Roundabout....

Luas - Very useful but flawed.

A&E?

Decentralisation - Cost unknown, benefit unknown. Dubliners screwed.

Ivor Calally's poor performance on transport matters & the embarrassing revelations about his funding by taxi drivers,the unpaid house-renovation bill and the planning problems with his second house in Cork.

Can't see Dubliners choosing Mayo Enda over Dublin Bertie.

It's certainly a difficult choice for Dubliners, but I think the reason for the slump of FF support among Dublin people is the perception that Bertie has betrayed Dublin.

gurramok

FF have lost working class votes also to Labour and SF in Dublin.
Also the stealing of €40 from people's credit card accounts plus the laser\atm card tax would of hurt FF, people would of got those horrific credit card\bank statements recently!

bk

NewDubliner I think FF will do ok in Dublin.

By the time the elections come around:

1) Port Tunnel will be open and in use, making a massive difference to Dublin traffic. People have short term memories, once it is in use and successful, they will forget about all the earlier problems.

2) Luas has been a tremendous success.
Yes it has deficiency's and early problems, but again this will get over looked.

3) The new Docklands station will be built.

4) The Luas extensions construction will be well advanced and very visible.

5) The Metro North may have started construction or just about to (routes announced, etc). This will make people along the route and in Swords, very happy.

6) Fancy new trains to Cork and else where, new timetable with a train every hour.

7) Work started on Quad lining and increasing capacity on Maynooth line.

8) Dublin Bus reorganising routes.

9) Work has started on the M50 upgrade.

I'm a bit of a transport watcher. It is clear to anyone who watches transport that there is going to be incredible amount of work happening in Transport over the next 20 years, far more then any government has done in the past and that finally Dublin is actually getting a good public transport system.

Many of these projects will have started by the next elections. It is very sneaky by FF, they seem to have timed the start of a lot of the projects very well. If they just announced the projects before the election, people would have called it lie's and BS. However instead they have timed it so that physical work will have actually started on the projects, so people can't deny that these projects are actually happening.

People have very short memories, as long as a government hasn't done anything awful (which FF haven't), people only think about whats happening in the last 6 months. With lots of Dublin infrastructure projects kicking off just before the elections and the SSIA's maturing, FF will likely do well.

Cork

FF have lost working class votes also to Labour and SF in Dublin.
Also the stealing of €40 from people's credit card accounts plus the laser\atm card tax would of hurt FF, people would of got those horrific credit card\bank statements recently!

The PDs/FF government did not introduce this tax. In fact the government reduced personal taxation taxes that was worth more than €40 euros.

People can avoid paying €40 stamp duty if they use 3V.

But many in our country are not financially aware. Eddie Hobbs has to be praised in educating many in basic finance.

FF support among Dublin people is the perception that Bertie has betrayed Dublin.

The people of Paris or Berlin would not agree.

Never has there been more being spend in public services provision.

We can all moan but just talk to the Eastern Europeans about Ireland- and you'll realize the merits of this country.

Blackjack

NewDubliner wrote:

A&E?

Is this not Nationwide issue?.

NewDubliner wrote:

Decentralisation - Cost unknown, benefit unknown. Dubliners screwed.

Not entirely true. A large number of Civil Servants are from outside of Dublin. By regionalising, there would be benefits to many outside of the civil service, with an (albeit small) reduction on the number of commuters to Dublin, easing some of the transport issues, and also perhaps having and effect on house pricing.

It never ceases to amaze me how these can be perceived as "Anti-Dublin" policies. There is a population that exists outside of the pale you know.

gurramok

Cork wrote:

The PDs/FF government did not introduce this tax. In fact the government reduced personal taxation taxes that was worth more than €40 euros.

People can avoid paying €40 stamp duty if they use 3V.

But many in our country are not financially aware. Eddie Hobbs has to be praised in educating many in basic finance.

The people of Paris or Berlin would not agree.

Never has there been more being spend in public services provision.

We can all moan but just talk to the Eastern Europeans about Ireland- and you'll realize the merits of this country.

Here we go again with the personal taxation argument.
Only the well off middle classes and upper classes benefit from lower personal taxation.
At the end of the day, everyone no matter what income they are on pay the same amount of indirect taxes hence affecting the dispaosable income more of those on the lower paid.
Hence why should anyone on lower pay vote for a right wing FF govt?

What is the €40 credit card tax for? What is the €20 Laser\atm combined tax for?
Has it ever been stated what its usefulness other than to pilfer millions?

Cork

gurramok wrote:

Here we go again with the personal taxation argument.
Only the well off middle classes and upper classes benefit from lower personal taxation.

What is the €40 credit card tax for? What is the €20 Laser\atm combined tax for?
Has it ever been stated what its usefulness other than to pilfer millions?

What is the plastic bag levy for?

Old Mother Hubberd has now to do without a grogery bag. She has the option to buy a re-usable bag.

Again - A 3V card has no stamp duty.

If you want to avoid paying the duty - 3V is an option.

Tesco were gining away €40 vouchers with their credit cards recently.

Shop Around and be fincially aware.

The current government did not introduce stamp dutys on credit cards. Was it not a FG government?

Blackjack

gurramok wrote:

What is the €40 credit card tax for? What is the €20 Laser\atm combined tax for?
Has it ever been stated what its usefulness other than to pilfer millions?

the 40 Euro charge was not a bad idea to curb multiple card usage and huge personal debt being run up by people on Credit cards, with huge interest rates being applied to this debt.

fly_agaric

bk wrote:

NewDubliner I think FF will do ok in Dublin.

By the time the elections come around:

1) Port Tunnel will be open and in use, making a massive difference to Dublin traffic. People have short term memories, once it is in use and successful, they will forget about all the earlier problems.

2) Luas has been a tremendous success.
Yes it has deficiency's and early problems, but again this will get over looked.

3) The new Docklands station will be built.

4) The Luas extensions construction will be well advanced and very visible.

5) The Metro North may have started construction or just about to (routes announced, etc). This will make people along the route and in Swords, very happy.

6) Fancy new trains to Cork and else where, new timetable with a train every hour.

7) Work started on Quad lining and increasing capacity on Maynooth line.

8) Dublin Bus reorganising routes.

9) Work has started on the M50 upgrade.

How is the govt. going to get all that sorted in a year or less?

I'm sceptical based on past performance. I'll believe it when I see it.

gurramok wrote:

What is the €40 credit card tax for? What is the €20 Laser\atm combined tax for?

I think it was to encourage Irish people to take to e-commerce!:D

Cork wrote:

The current government did not introduce stamp dutys on credit cards. Was it not a FG government?

AFAICR they were about £5 [not sure exactly] at one stage and Minister McCreevy increased both by a large factor in one of his budgets.

blackjack wrote:

Is this not Nationwide issue?.

Yes, it is really, but I thought the current govt. and HSE take on it was that it is an issue concentrated in only some hospitals (the ones in the larger cities).
Even the govt. seems to want to frame it as a mainly Dublin rather than a National issue. I wonder why...

blackjack wrote:

It never ceases to amaze me how these can be perceived as "Anti-Dublin" policies.

Maybe because the govt. trumpets the policies as part of overcoming the "Dublin centred mindset" and giving "the regions their fair share"? [implication: Greedy Dublin (all of which is a paradise of private wealth, LUASes and DARTs, excellent schools, hospitals, public services etc) has been screwing them out of their rightful money and jobs all these years.] It grates sometimes.

I'm spending too much time here butting into other peoples' arguments. I should do something else.

NewDubliner

Blackjack wrote:

A large number of Civil Servants are from outside of Dublin. By regionalising, there would be benefits to many outside of the civil service, with an (albeit small) reduction on the number of commuters to Dublin, easing some of the transport issues, and also perhaps having and effect on house pricing.

The number of commuters in Dublin will increase. When the central Dublin offices are sold, the new owners will operate the the sites at much higher densities. This means extra traffic.

The original occupants will still be living in Dublin but will be required to commute to Kildare, Portlaoise, Drogheda etc. The new, much more numerous, private sector staff that who will take over the original offices will, most likely, be coming in from Kildare, Portlaoise, Drogheda etc. This will increase the amount of traffic coming into and leaving Dublin. House prices will increase as the new occupants of the former civil service offices look for scarce houses near central Dublin.

People in Dublin are not fooled by false arguments that decentralisation will ease traffic and house prices, when it will do the opposite.

Blackjack wrote:

It never ceases to amaze me how these can be perceived as "Anti-Dublin" policies. There is a population that exists outside of the pale you know.

I'm not sure if this argument will be enough to sway Dublin voters.

Let's remember that this topic is not about the merits of decentralisation. there's a great big thread on this elsewhere. We're discussing what factors are swaying voters away from FF.

Well-paid jobs with good working conditions are being taken away from Dublin.

For many Dublin voters, it's seen as a big rip-off.

Sand

Not entirely true. A large number of Civil Servants are from outside of Dublin. By regionalising, there would be benefits to many outside of the civil service, with an (albeit small) reduction on the number of commuters to Dublin, easing some of the transport issues, and also perhaps having and effect on house pricing..

There wont be - decentralisation isnt planned to devolve power to local authorities, nor is it planned to develop regions or the smaller cities/towns. Its simply planned to buy votes in the countryside. Thats it. No party is against decentralisation, theyre simply against the handling of it, because they want to claim those votes for themselves. Thats why Mayo's Enda Kenny lambasted the Governments decentralisation policy, but when asked if he would call on the government to halt it, his response was something along the lines of "Well lets not be too hasty, lets see whats in the best interests of my re-electio....Uh I mean Ireland, lets see whats in the best interests of Ireland."

The whinging from the Birr representitives was mostly about their investments being at risk because they had planned to rip off these city "blow ins" with overpriced houses/land and now nobody was coming. Most of the decentralisation is from *outside* Dublin, which tells its own story about the supposed Dublin centered civil service.

It never ceases to amaze me how these can be perceived as "Anti-Dublin" policies. There is a population that exists outside of the pale you know

And? Dublin and its environs is the most densely populated region of Ireland and the best option for investment in either infrastructure, business, entertainment and standard of life because of that. The provision of services and infrastructure is far more cost effective within Dublin, as opposed to in the BMW - Put a bus line in Dublin and youre serving anything up to a 100,000 people along the line. Put a bus line in Kerry and you might be only serving 100...do the maths on where the moneys better spent to serve the people. Business does the same calculation when they try to plan ahead for the customer base - theyre not going to set up up 73 cinemas to accomadate 73 offices of 400 or so scattered all over the country.

Thats the simple reality, and why it property costs more in Dublin than it does in Kerry. And its why take up is so low amongst civil servants. And the way decentralisation is planned, it will not change this. A lot of people are being made fools off. Politicians are laughing at everyone who votes for them thinking decentralisation will benefit their area when its just some office plonked down in some random town to reward a TD and strenthen his support in elections. The government is ignoring their own development policy to do this. Thats how stupid the policy is.

And the way they sell it is to claim theyre getting one over on the "selfish" Dubs. Cute hoors. Look at Tom Parlons "defence" of decentralisation on Prime Time - he was so clueless I felt sorry for him, hes been landed with the job of trying to defend this blatant vote buying exercise. How do you defend a policy so stupid and badly thought out, a policy that only takes valuable resources and spends them stupidly, denying funding to policies that might actually assist real sustainable development outside of Dublin?

Cork

NewDubliner wrote:

Well-paid jobs with good working conditions are being taken away from Dublin.

For many Dublin voters, it's seen as a big rip-off.

The CSO is doing fine in Cork. Lets face it - we need more of a balance in development in this country.

I was offered a job in Dublin a month ago. The job was dull. But accomadation & transport costs in Dublin far exceeded the increase in wages.

Lets face it - many people working in Dublin are not living in Dublin. Dublin with crazy house prices has outpriced itself as a possible location for many workers to live.

Higher petrol prices are making people think about whether long commutes to Dublin is worth it.

I think the decentralisation debate is interesting. It is not an answer to regional development but on the other side why should civil service jobs go a location that can't even house workers who work in the city or cope with the refuse the city produces.

How much further are people working in Dublin willing to commute?

NewDubliner

Cork wrote:

The CSO is doing fine in Cork.

And the Legal Aid Board in Cahirciveen?

How much further are people working in Dublin willing to commute?

Many of the people affected presently have 30-45 minute commutes. Quite a few cycle to work or use public transport. They're happy to work in Dublin, a great city to live and work in.

But we're drifting off into a discussion of the merits of current decentralisation project rather than, more to the point, its likely effect on the FF vote in Dublin.

The only Dublin voters who could favour the project are those who want to move out. These are a tiny minority of the volunteers. No doubt, these will vote FF.

Clearly, those whose familiy life and career is threatened by the government plan will think long and hard before voting FF or PD.

It would be wrong to think that only public service votes will be lost because of this project. No Dubliner would want to pay extra taxes to pay for it. No Dubliner wants the extra traffic congestion that will be caused.

In short the project is lose-lose for most Dublin people. Say what you like about how much the rest of the country wants it or how well Dublin has done in other areas, this project is not going to win many votes in Dublin.

Cork

NewDubliner wrote:

The only Dublin voters who could favour the project are those who want to move out. These are a tiny minority of the volunteers. No doubt, these will vote FF.

Just as well these people are not working in the private sector where they could be transfered from locations.

Thos government also gave these people massive amounts of money for benchmarking. We should expect a more flexable workforce.

If these people want to stay in Dublin - I would recommend the private sector. How dare they issue dictats to government.

The Fas thing last week was a joke. They take benchmarking and then kick up a fuss.

Roland Reagan had the same difficulty with Air Traffic Controllers.

But opinion polls may be right or wrong. FG opposed public sector bench markung - so I can't see many of them voting fg.

NewDubliner

Cork wrote:

Just as well these people are not working in the private sector where they could be transfered from locations.

But why move them at all? Where's the value for money in doing it?

If it was the private sector, the project would have not have been initated in the first place, it's not going to save money or improve services. It's over-budget & it's late. It's going to cause traffic congestion in Dublin and drive up house prices. The people of Dublin know this.

Private & public sector workers in Dublin recognise government waste when they see it. The so-called 'decentralisation' project is just such a white elephant.

Hence the fall in support for the government.