Finnpark's Trading Thread

finnpark

Ok, my lips are wet now and I want to try to trade Irish racing. I won't be putting on real money so it won't be as successful as "real life" would be but lets see how it goes. What I mean by that is that you could actually create a gamble by doing this, especially if a few of us went together and that would make it ten times more successful.:)

What I intend doing is backing a horse during the day or morning and then laying it off later on Betfair. :eek: . Now I will keep a record and let me start with a bank of just £1000 which is small but since its trading theres never going to be a massive risk since we should always manage to lay it off at some price even if its a bit higher sometimes.

Again, Im not doing these myself and its a new concept for me so no need to try out anyone. It is an experiment.

Original Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1000
Profit/Loss: £0
Number of Selections: 0
Strike Rate: %
Number of Trades: 0
Number of Successful Trades: 0
Running ROI: %

If anyone has any reccommendations or would like to do it for UK racing then please add to it. I may also do negative trading - lay in morning and back later but we will see how it goes.

I have a good feeling about this.

PS: This assumes that we have an account with every bookie and Betfair.

Finnpark.

wb

Looks Interesting. I have been doing some trading for some time, but not over such a big timeframe. I do it on UK racing with a bot in the last ten minutes before the off. Never tried it on the Irish.
Just wondering if the trade does not go the right way...
Will you bail out, and accept a loss, or let the bet go ahead as a normal back.

For example, if you back a horse in the hope that the price comes in, but instead it drifts. Will you lay it at the high price, and accept a loss, or will you leave it be, and hope it wins.

Good luck with this finn.

Hobart

Yea good luck with it. I actually did my first trade this week. Successfully I might add .

Robin1982

This strategy is rather loose on details - are you exclusively backing with bookmakers early or with you be alternating with early Betfair markets that are

a) generally illiquid pre-20mins before post time
b) the market is not tight enough on Irish racing

How are you determining early picks i.e. how are going to identify prices that you expect to contract => how will you determine fair value?

How much edge are you willing to accept i.e. when will you trade out of the position; is it determined by profit or by time before the race?

If the trade doesn't work, when will you trade out of your position?

Also, if the trade is successful, will you let it ride as a free bet or will you trade off the potential profit over all runners i.e. netting you an, albeit, small guaranteed profit?

Will you be using the reverse of the strategy i.e. laying in the morning and backing when you expect the odds to be higher?

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

Looks Interesting. I have been doing some trading for some time, but not over such a big timeframe. I do it on UK racing with a bot in the last ten minutes before the off. Never tried it on the Irish.
Just wondering if the trade does not go the right way...
Will you bail out, and accept a loss, or let the bet go ahead as a normal back.

For example, if you back a horse in the hope that the price comes in, but instead it drifts. Will you lay it at the high price, and accept a loss, or will you leave it be, and hope it wins.

Good luck with this finn.

Thanks lads. The good thing about trading is that you don't need to know that much detail about the horse or about the race .

To answer your question, no I will never let the back stand if at all possible to lay it off unless its a hot fav in a maiden or something. I would hope to be selecting ones that are > 10/1 and lay them off < 10/1 . In other words its the same as laying high odds horses without the risk and hopefully make a profit most times when they come in. As > 10/1 shots rarely will win the most important part will be laying them off.

For example:

If I back a horse at 12/1 and I can only lay him off at 16/1 then its a 4/1 lay risk on a 16/1 shot - and since he is a drifter anyway he shouldn't win. Hope you understand. If he does win you are down 4 times your stake but this occurance will, hopefully , be rare. To make an overall loss this way you would need a 26% min win strike rate on 16/1 shots, if you can manage that then you should be backing them:D . Hope you understand what Im saying, the main thing is to get the lay in even if it is a higher price. If you can keep the win strike rate low (below say 20% with > 10/1 shots ) then we should easily make a profit.

The emphsis will be on laying - we want to remain even or small profit if horse wins but a loser will bring a profit each time. I suppose you would want the opposite if you layed favourites.

What to look out for?

(1) Horses that should open at lower odds than the max odds offered by any bookie on a horse. The bigger the price the better and the deviation down will be bigger. For example if a well established horse in Ireland has a 6/1 Racing Post forecast price and is 7/1 with Ladbrokes, 13/2 with PP, 6/1 with Will Hill but is 10/1 with Sporting Odds then a heavy back would be the order of the day. I think Grahams and PP open the prices at tracks in Ireland so we would expect it to open at 7/1 max or 8/1 worst case so back at 10/1.

Also, in real life by backing heavy at 10/1 you will dramatically reduce the price .

(2) If the horse is expected to lose all the better.

(3) A huge gamble at 2 bookies but 1 or 2 bookies have left the price unchanged at much higher odds. Gambles usually lose unfortunately, so these are good to pick. Join the gamble when it is just starting.

Hopefully this will ork out.

finnpark

Robin1982 wrote:

This strategy is rather loose on details - are you exclusively backing with bookmakers early or with you be alternating with early Betfair markets that are

a) generally illiquid pre-20mins before post time
b) the market is not tight enough on Irish racing

Exactly why you should pick Irish racing. Prices very predictable but here is the great thing. If we do this for real we can start a gamble or progress a gamble. For example, Bet365 cut price today from 14/1 to 10/1 for just a £100 bet at 14/1. So the Irish market is ideal provided you can be beside Betfair before the race. I had no problem laying off quite a lot today before the race and even during the race. Although for this thread we will leave out in play due to the proof factor etc.

Robin1982 wrote:

How are you determining early picks i.e. how are going to identify prices that you expect to contract => how will you determine fair value?

Racing Post and Irish bookmakers - that is the most difficult part of course.

Robin1982 wrote:

How much edge are you willing to accept i.e. when will you trade out of the position; is it determined by profit or by time before the race?

We are going to go on gut feeling. If there is a gamble in place then try to lay it off late but before the market on track gets into full swing as gambles usually drift just before racetime.

Robin1982 wrote:

Also, if the trade is successful, will you let it ride as a free bet or will you trade off the potential profit over all runners i.e. netting you an, albeit, small guaranteed profit?

Guaranteed profit please - lay takes priority. I want to break even if the horse wins.

Robin1982 wrote:

Will you be using the reverse of the strategy i.e. laying in the morning and backing when you expect the odds to be higher?

Difficult that to predict but yes there will be some - ie you will know that it can't be any shorter in price. There was 1 or2 of these today actually that were sure to be available at a larger price, although laying in the morning may prove impossible in Ireland.

Suggestions welcome, maybe it work better for English racing etc , i didn't put that much thought into it, I just wanted to give it a go. Feedback welcome:)

finnpark

I think that the lay should be also be higher in stake that the back. ie £100 to win and £110 lay. I want to try to maximise profits. This should ensure that make a bigger profit if the horse loses and just come out even if the horse wins - I will adjust ti as I go along to fit - the laying stake should change with every horse while the backing stake will probably stay the same.:)

finnpark

Monahullan Prince 8.10pm Wexford. 20/1 William Hill.
Effect Me Not 8.10pm Wexford 20/1 VC Bet

I would expect to be able to lay this off close to race time at about 9/1 or 10/1.

£100 Win on each.

Lay off both on Betfair at lower odds and £2000 liability on each.

Aim: Try to lay it off for £200 at 10/1 on Betfair - take anything under 12/1 or next best. We want to break even if the horse wins or make a very good profit if the horse loses.

If we did this for real we could start a gamble very easily on these but lets see how it goes anyway.:)

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Monahullan Prince 8.10pm Wexford. 20/1 William Hill.
Effect Me Not 8.10pm Wexford 20/1 VC Bet

I would expect to be able to lay this off close to race time at about 9/1 or 10/1.

£100 Win on each.

Lay off both on Betfair at lower odds and £2000 liability on each.

Aim: Try to lay it off for £200 at 10/1 on Betfair - take anything under 12/1 or next best. We want to break even if the horse wins or make a very good profit if the horse loses.

If we did this for real we could start a gamble very easily on these but lets see how it goes anyway.:)

Obviously a bank greater than £1000 is needed - as your backing with 1 bookie and laying it off on Betfair. You would need a £4000 bank on Betfair but as you stand to win £4000 at the bookies you are actually risking nothing.:)

Robin1982

question: out of ten trades like this, how many do you expect the price to contract? All ten? Nine? Five?

Hobart

Have you factored in the commission? If so, where?

finnpark

Robin1982 wrote:

question: out of ten trades like this, how many do you expect the price to contract? All ten? Nine? Five?

The price should definitely be lower when they open on course. However, the problem may be laying it off, nobody may want to back it. I would expect the price to open shorter on track on today's 2 at least but maybe no1 will be backing them Its continually open to change so if you advise anything I may take it on board. I may change it to england at some stage as the Irish market may be too chancy.

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Have you factored in the commission? If so, where?

I was going to factor in commision when we get the returns each time. If we could back today's selection at 20/1 for £100 and lay it off at 15/1 say for £133, that would be a profit of £33 - commision so it would be around £30 profit.

I backed the one in the 8.10 at wexford for 30 euro just and I would be happy to lay it off at around 15/1 for around £40 to give a profit of around £9 if horse loses or breAK EVEN if horse wins. Again, Im new to this so only time will tell . The big issue is laying off - you have to be able to lay the horse off at some price - even if its bigger you have to take the chance as its drifting so much it won't win. For example if the 8.10 selection drifts from the 10/1 with PP now to open at say 25/1 I would be willing to take chance of laying at 25/1 if I can get some1 to back.

It would be possible to do the same in England, and the market is a lot stronger there.

Does any1 know who opens the prices on course in England, Ive a funny feeling its not william hill???

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Monahullan Prince 8.10pm Wexford. 20/1 William Hill.

Great news folks. I backed this morning for 30 euro with WH and I left 30 euro at 11/1 to back on betfair and some1 has backed it for 14 euro 68 cent. All I need now is to get another 16 euro layed off at 20/1 or lower to be GUARANTEED to break even. I will try to lay it off for 40 euro in total. Ive left 15 euro to back on it on Betfair now at 11/1. Looks very good, I didn't do anything with the other 1. .

Robin1982

The reasoning behind my question was that you are essentially betting on price movement and, as such, there is a probability involved in how often you are going to be right, and your profit is a function of the range of the two.

Using your figures from above (and I commend you on what seems like a well-identified opportunity) you can work out your expectancy from situations like this. Consider:

Odds | Stake | Expectancy | Type

20/1 (21.0) | €100 | - | Back

A: The odds contract to 11/1 (12.0), you lay (and are matched) 181.82 @ 12, thereby if the horse wins, you break even, if he loses, you win the difference between your back and your lay i.e. 81.82 (I assume zero commission).

B: The odds lengthen to the next tic i.e 25/1 (26.0) and you decide to close out your position, you lay 80 @ 26.0, again breaking even if he wins, and losing 20 if he loses.

Now there is always a possibility the horse will win, lets say fair value in this situation its 7%, therefore 93% of the time he will lose. Therefore:

A: now your expectancy (profit * probability) is, when he wins, 0 * 0.07 = 0,
when he loses, 81.82 * 0.93 = 76.09, TOTAL = 76.09

B: wins, 0, loses, -18.60, TOTAL = -18.60

Now, back to my question, how often will you pick a horse whose odds will go down like you hope - lets say you are good and its 8 out of every 10 times (0.80)

So, now your expectancy is:

A: 0.80 * 76.09 = 60.87

B: 0.20 * -18.60 = -3.72

Overall, long-term, thats a positive expectancy of 57.15, clearly a great strategy, but of course the biggest weakness with theses odds that betfair tends to be much larger odds on outsiders comapared to favoured horses, so a situation where a 20/1 shot in the morning is available to lay (for size) at 11/1 later in the day will be quite rare. Also, a move of 20/1 to 11/1 is actually quite large - and I don't think the idea of starting a gamble is infallible - bookies look at betfair too and it doesn't take too much intuition to figure out this strategy. Plus you need to get matched the full amount.

So, if you used smaller odds i.e horses around the 7/1 mark, your expentancy will therefore decrease, plus the probability of the odds drifting increases. Thing is I think I will be highly unlikely that you could sustain a strike rate of 80% on price contractors with such a large price movement.

For instance, replacing the above 3 odds with 7/1, 11/2, 8/1 and a strike rate of 50%, your expectency is now around 7.00, quite a difference.

But anyway I wish you every success; this reply was more to point out what one should think of when planning a betting strategy.

masterK

There are 3 non runners in the 8:10, one was 2nd favourite the other 2 were 10/1 shots so the resulting reduction factor will affect your bet. If either horse wins there will be a rule 4 from the bookies.

Hobart

Robin,

you make some very valid and real points. You have also highlighted a very real danger when laying. i.e. the horse may actually win!!

I have not gone into your figures to any depth, but from what I can conjecture, you can go low risk (while laying) for high stakes, with minimal returns. Or. You can go high risk, for low stakes for high(ish) returns. I suppose in a way that that describes laying.

But your point wrt to the *expected* drifting of the price from a 20/1 (21.0) to a 11/1 (12.0)* is very valid. I would be fairly certain that a trend like this (if it exists) would be well reported in the market.

In theory, you could end up with egg on your face, and memories of Nick Leeson spring to mind.

*for example.

finnpark

Well I only managed to come out even on the 1 I did yesterday with higher risk if the horse won. I actually backed also at 44/1 on Betfair.

I wouldn't do again for Irish racing, there is just no money going on it. It would be very hard to lay it off. I will try again Monday for UK racing probably or wait for the right gamble in Ireland.:)

Getting it layed off is the main thing. But picking 20/1 shots equates to 30/1 on Betfair:(

finnpark

Ok, very sure trade today. Back Mountain 3.55 Leop for £100 at 16/1 with Sporting Odds. This horse should open < 10/1 on course so lay at 10/1 or lower. eg back at 16/1 £100 and lay at 8/1 for £200.

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Ok, very sure trade today. Back Mountain 3.55 Leop for £100 at 16/1 with Sporting Odds. This horse should open < 10/1 on course so lay at 10/1 or lower. eg back at 16/1 £100 and lay at 8/1 for £200.

:eek: Its now 9/1 with Sporting Odds. I stuck £100 on at 16/1, best price available 10/1, will open oncourse between 6/1 and 8/1. Very confident of laying it off at less than 16s and making a profit. . Sure trade this one I think. I will only do sure trades from now on. Let this be Trade Number 1.

finnpark

An extremely successful trade today with Mountain Rock:D , who finished 2nd, backed at 16/1 in the morning and easily layed off at around 8/1 on Betfair -3% commison. That is a profit of around £100 today.

I will only post up "sure" trades on this thread from now on. You have to be on the ball real early in the morning to take advantage.

Original Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1097
Profit/Loss: £97
Number of Selections: 1
Strike Rate: 100%
Number of Trades: 1
Number of Successful Trades: 1
Running ROI: 49%

Hobart

Couple of questions Finnpark.

Firstly, is the betfair comission not 5% ? Secondly, your €200 lay was successful. Therfore, do you not pay comission on the €200 you won? i.e. your gross win, and not your net?

Thirdly, it might be a lot more helpful if you actually post up ypur actual bets, including the amount and liability you take on, before the off. This will stop any suspicions people might have wrt post tipping and it will also go further to explain the liability and exposure.

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Couple of questions Finnpark.

Firstly, is the betfair comission not 5% ? Secondly, your €200 lay was successful. Therfore, do you not pay comission on the €200 you won? i.e. your gross win, and not your net?

Thirdly, it might be a lot more helpful if you actually post up ypur actual bets, including the amount and liability you take on, before the off. This will stop any suspicions people might have wrt post tipping and it will also go further to explain the liability and exposure.

Yes its 5% sorry but I do pay commision - its when your bet loses that you don't pay commision?

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

Yes its 5% sorry but I do pay commision - its when your bet loses that you don't pay commision?

I realise that. But if you lay a bet to gross €200 (which at 9's (8/1) is going to give you a liability of €1600) and the lay is sucesful. Your return would be €200. Less 5% comission (€190). Less the €100 you bet on the horse at 16's earlier. Leaving a gross profit of €90. Not €97 as you have posted.

Did you actually lay this horse, or is this just virtual betting? The betfair calculator will give you exact return.

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

I realise that. But if you lay a bet to gross €200 (which at 9's (8/1) is going to give you a liability of €1800) and the lay is sucesful. Your return would be €200. Less 5% comission (€190). Less the €100 you bet on the horse at 16's earlier. Leaving a gross profit of €90. Not €97 as you have posted.

Did you actually lay this horse, or is this just virtual betting? The betfair calculator will give you exact return.

Yes. You are right. It was quite late when I posted that. There was loads that could be traded today but nothing "sure".

So, bank is £1090 not £1097.

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

Yes. You are right. It was quite late when I posted that. There was loads that could be traded today but nothing "sure".

So, bank is £1090 not £1097.

Fair enough. are you actually laying these horses, or is this virtual betting?

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Fair enough. are you actually laying these horses, or is this virtual betting?

Well I did the last one and I got lucky with1 before it but I don't look at exact returns.

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

Well I did the last one and I got lucky with1 before it but I don't look at exact returns.

Well then lets make a little rule here. You have to appreciate that there are users here who know very little about trading (I include myself in this group) and therefore misleading figures and misinformed postings will only add to the confusion.

Why don't you take a leaf out of wbaileys dutching thread and post in a similar manner? i.e. Your backing odds, your laying odds, your trading difference and your liability. Your success or failure? And do this pre-off. That way, it's fair on other users, who might be following this thread.

May I also suggest that you do look at your payout on betfair (they do a very handy P&L on your account which you can use) as this will also allow any ambiguity to be settled.

finnpark

Today's selection: Deauville Vision 8.50pm Nass 11/2 PP £100 Win , try to lay off Betfair at 5.8 for £115, should be easily layed off at this price maybe even lower.

Ok, I have altered my results to be closer to the realistic profit I made on Hobart's advice, I went more for worst case below as I agree that we need to be careful with our records so here is bank before today's trade:

Original Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1080
Profit/Loss: £80
Number of Selections: 1
Strike Rate: 100%
Number of Trades: 1
Number of Successful Trades: 1
Running ROI: ?%

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Today's selection: Deauville Vision 8.50pm Nass 11/2 PP £100 Win , try to lay off Betfair at 5.8 for £115, should be easily layed off at this price maybe even lower.

Ok, I have altered my results to be closer to the realistic profit I made on Hobart's advice, I went more for worst case below as I agree that we need to be careful with our records so here is bank before today's trade:

Original Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1080
Profit/Loss: £80
Number of Selections: 1
Strike Rate: 100%
Number of Trades: 1
Number of Successful Trades: 1
Running ROI: ?%

Ok, I only did this one myself for a small amount actually but even for a larger amount it would have been very successful.

Was available to back at 11/2 and now is 4/1 on Betfair. 500 euro+ matched on it at odds between 4/1 and 5/1 so no problem getting it matched at 5.8 - actually I could have got it matched much lower but for the strict record lets say 5.8 to be on safe side.

So £15 profit -5% commision is £14 profit today.:)

If you have missed out on this today I say lay it now on Betfair at 4/1 - it will open on track at around 4/1 to 9/2 and should drift in market. But Im not going to this due to time constraints. Well worth the risk though, can't see it going lower than 4/1 at any time.


Original Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1094
Profit/Loss: +£94
Number of Selections: 2
Strike Rate: 100%
Number of Trades: 2
Number of Successful Trades: 2

masterK

Finnpark I really can't see how you are figuring this out, I had a look at this horse when you first posted and most of that money you mention had already been matched. Look at the price history graph, it's been steadily drifiting.

You really can't talk about fictional amounts either because offering €100 to lay on Irish racing early in the morning would most likely cause the horse to drift, there are no guarantees that becuase another €100 matched at a certain price that your money would also have been matched. Unless you are doing this with real money it's meaningless as you can just find both the greatest and smallest price a horse ever was and claim to have backed at the greatest and laid off at the smallest and therefore you will never lose.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

Finnpark I really can't see how you are figuring this out, I had a look at this horse when you first posted and most of that money you mention had already been matched. Look at the price history graph, it's been steadily drifiting.

You really can't talk about fictional amounts either because offering €100 to lay on Irish racing early in the morning would most likely cause the horse to drift, there are no guarantees that becuase another €100 matched at a certain price that your money would also have been matched. Unless you are doing this with real money it's meaningless as you can just find both the greatest and smallest price a horse ever was and claim to have backed at the greatest and laid off at the smallest and therefore you will never lose.

1. The graph is going steadily down for the past few hours???

2. Betfair showed last priced matched at 5.1 and 5.2 aaover the past half hour alone and Im taking worst case of 5.8.

3. Thats just it, I did back it at biggest (11/2 PP, now 9/2 with PP) and it since has been layed off at 5.1 and 5.2 on Betfair (and I layed it off for small amount myself).

We can leave it to closer to race time if you wish but I guarantee you you will ahve no problem laying it off at 5.8 (4.8/1) as it will open at 4/1 to 9/2. Best price at moment on betfair is 4.1 and this has been backed at that price even. I think it is a very successful lay

finnpark

By the way, the profit shown for it assumes horse will lose, forgot about that.:o

finnpark

Another 100 euro matched on it in past 15 minutes - 5.2 . Now I think this was a sure one, I gave the result at 5.8 too while its been matched easily at 5.1 and 5.2 so I should really have made more profit if I was willing to go lower.

The horse still has to lose to make a profit and your point is taken but I think this one is ok. Thanks.

Hobart

Are you referring to the lay on this horse on betfair?

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

By the way, the profit shown for it assumes horse will lose, forgot about that.:o

Finnpark,

I'm confused here. In trading a horse, does it matter if the horse win's or looses? What are you referring to in the quoted post above?

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Finnpark,

I'm confused here. In trading a horse, does it matter if the horse win's or looses? What are you referring to in the quoted post above?

First of all, the lay on Betfair yes but backed on PP at 11/2 as 11/2 was never available on Betfair.

The way Im doing it is:

(1) Come out even if horse wins

(2) make a profit if horse loses.

I think this is better than making a profit either way.

My prediction here is that it will open at about 9/2 and drift out to about 11/2 and won't win and that is what Im basing this trade on - take the 11/2 and lay it off below 5/1 to make small but pretty sure profit.

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

First of all, the lay on Betfair yes but backed on PP at 11/2 as 11/2 was never available on Betfair.

The way Im doing it is:

(1) Come out even if horse wins

(2) make a profit if horse loses.

I think this is better than making a profit either way.

My prediction here is that it will open at about 9/2 and drift out to about 11/2 and won't win and that is what Im basing this trade on - take the 11/2 and lay it off below 5/1 to make small but pretty sure profit.

Ok,

so are you telling me that you have layed this horse on betfair (not traded) at 5.8 today?

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Ok,

so are you telling me that you have layed this horse on betfair (not traded) at 5.8 today?

Actually lower but yes, Ive managed to stay with guidelines for a smaller amount.

If I didn't manage to lay it off before opening price on course I and it opened >9/2 expected then I would lay it off immediately to break even at say 5/1 or 11/2 but I can't see it opening at 11/2 to be honest.

Robin1982

Finnpark, you seem to be talking a lot about where the horse has traded already and are working it into your expected profit. I think it be less confusing if you actually post the amounts you have laid.

I get the impression so far you have only laid £20 or £30 at 5.8 and are waiting until closer the race the lay the remainder. Until you actually lay the amount you want, then posting profits etc is confusing.

Also, the possibility arises that you won't be able to lay your target of ~£115 (your break-even amount if the horse wins) because no one wants to back him - therefore you could actually end up winning more if the horse wins, contradicting your declared strategy.

finnpark

Robin1982 wrote:

Finnpark, you seem to be talking a lot about where the horse has traded already and are working it into your expected profit. I think it be less confusing if you actually post the amounts you have laid.

I get the impression so far you have only laid £20 or £30 at 5.8 and are waiting until closer the race the lay the remainder. Until you actually lay the amount you want, then posting profits etc is confusing.

Also, the possibility arises that you won't be able to lay your target of ~£115 (your break-even amount if the horse wins) because no one wants to back him - therefore you could actually end up winning more if the horse wins, contradicting your declared strategy.

Hi Robin,

I think there is no ambiguity today if you check the current back and lay odds across the board .

Irish is bad alright, I din't back it today myself for the full £100 hence Im laying it off for smaller amounts.

However, with today's selection there would have been no problem laying it off at 5.8 as my records will show - 5.8 is currently in the lay column with £18 and £777 has already been matched on this horse today.

If you did back him for say £500 today and have to wait until race time to lay him I would suspect you would still lay him off. He is likely to open around 4/1 before drifting so laying off at 5.8 reccommended should not be a problem although time will tell.

> Yes there is a risk, but this was a good trade today imo. Yes they all may not work out so well, lets just wait and see. In my mind I would have had no problem laying him off today at 5.8 for a large amount of money. You are going to have to accept that or say trading is not for you. I haven't put down the full £100 today but you have to use your head and say yes I can't see this not working today.

> Yes the horse could win, although I doubt it, and the rule is you will take that risk. Again, Im new to this so I may end up going bust but not with today's trade.


I hope that you can see that today's trade is easily successful. Backed at 11/2 and currently 7/2 with most bookies, 5/1 with 1 bookie. Should open < 5/1 on course and one would expect a certain amount of money for this so I have to put it down as a success.

Hobart

Finnpark,

are you actually backing these horses, or is this a virtual bet?

finnpark

Hobart wrote:

Finnpark,

are you actually backing these horses, or is this a virtual bet?

I have backed it but not for £100 so it is abit of both

scojones

I'm lost

finnpark

Its very simple:

You back at high odds and lay it off at low odds. You arrange the stakes to make sure you come out even if horse wins or win some money if horse loses.

Today's bet:

Backed on PP for £100 at 11/2

I then said to try to lay it off at 5.8 for £115. You can currently lay it off at 5.6 for 600 euro so happy days, we are guaranteed to come out even at least if horse wins (win £550 with PP, lose £550 with Betfair) or win £14 (due to bigger lay stake) if the horse does not finish 1st. Very successful today, can't see the big fuss myself - I suspect you could make twice than profit today even if just backing for £100 so no problems at all. Successul in my opinion.

Robin1982

finnpark wrote:

I have backed it but not for £100 so it is abit of both

finnpark wrote:

Today's bet:

Backed on PP for £100 at 11/2

I then said to try to lay it off at 5.8 for £115....I suspect you could make twice than profit today even if just backing for £100 so no problems at all...

The confusion (speaking only for myself) is that its not clear how much you have backed/laid. I understand what you are trying to achieve, its quite obvious, however what is not obvious is whether you have actually done it, and if so, to what amounts.

Assuming that you did put £100 @ 11/2 on PP, did you lay £119.5 @ 5.6? Did you get different odds on Betfair, and if so, what was the average amount i.e. you laid a total of £114 @ 5.82 over 3 separate lays.

This is important because the strategy of your trade, you have said, is to break-even if the horse wins, and take the profit if he loses. If you don't lay enough i.e. you could only managed to lay £110 @ 5.6, you would win £44 if the horse won, and break-even if he lost - a large profit, but not what you intended.

It's all well and good to say what is available on Betfair to lay, but thats beside the point, it only matters what you do. The reason, I think, that people are saying they are confused is that you have said, in this case, that you are assuming that you have put £100 on the horse, even though you have actually bet less - see quote above. I don't think you need to say what you could do; just put down what you did do.

This isn't a criticism - you have picked extremely well so far - but it would be easier to follow your P&L, ROI etc if you stick to your actual bets, especially as laying is completely dependent on the market on Betfair when you press that lay button.

If you still don't get what I'm saying, imagine you are just about to lay £115 @ 5.6 on Betfair, then suddenly someone puts up a lay of £10,000 @ 5.7 - sure you could have got that 5.6, but you didn't.

As an aside, you are "favouring" the lay because you want zero profit if the horse wins, and actual profit if he loses. By doing this you are still technically laying the horse, simply because the odds are high therefore a smaller probability of the event happening, even though you don't have an opinion on whether the horse is fairly priced or not (it seems). Surely it would make more sense (in the long term) to try and win the same amount whether the horse wins or loses.

finnpark

Robin1982 wrote:

The confusion (speaking only for myself) is that its not clear how much you have backed/laid. I understand what you are trying to achieve, its quite obvious, however what is not obvious is whether you have actually done it, and if so, to what amounts.

Assuming that you did put £100 @ 11/2 on PP, did you lay £119.5 @ 5.6? Did you get different odds on Betfair, and if so, what was the average amount i.e. you laid a total of £114 @ 5.82 over 3 separate lays.

This is important because the strategy of your trade, you have said, is to break-even if the horse wins, and take the profit if he loses. If you don't lay enough i.e. you could only managed to lay £110 @ 5.6, you would win £44 if the horse won, and break-even if he lost - a large profit, but not what you intended.

It's all well and good to say what is available on Betfair to lay, but thats beside the point, it only matters what you do. The reason, I think, that people are saying they are confused is that you have said, in this case, that you are assuming that you have put £100 on the horse, even though you have actually bet less - see quote above. I don't think you need to say what you could do; just put down what you did do.

This isn't a criticism - you have picked extremely well so far - but it would be easier to follow your P&L, ROI etc if you stick to your actual bets, especially as laying is completely dependent on the market on Betfair when you press that lay button.

If you still don't get what I'm saying, imagine you are just about to lay £115 @ 5.6 on Betfair, then suddenly someone puts up a lay of £10,000 @ 5.7 - sure you could have got that 5.6, but you didn't.

As an aside, you are "favouring" the lay because you want zero profit if the horse wins, and actual profit if he loses. By doing this you are still technically laying the horse, simply because the odds are high therefore a smaller probability of the event happening, even though you don't have an opinion on whether the horse is fairly priced or not (it seems). Surely it would make more sense (in the long term) to try and win the same amount whether the horse wins or loses.

OK, so you want me to post proof of every bet, I layed it off before this early today for some more also but here are my lays before the race.

2006-05-17
20:59 2242988409 2006-05-17
20:52 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 4.00 5.30 Won 4.00 xxxx.11

2006-05-17
20:59 2242987050 2006-05-17
20:51 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 4.00 5.19 Won 4.00 xxxx.11

2006-05-17
20:59 2242978100 2006-05-17
20:49 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 4.00 5.50 Won 4.00 xxxx.11

2006-05-17
20:59 2242947986 2006-05-17
20:41 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 15.00 5.50 Won 15.00 xxxx.11

2006-05-17
20:59 2242936428 2006-05-17
20:38 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 6.88 5.10 Won 6.88 xxxx.11

2006-05-17
20:59 2242928974 2006-05-17
20:36 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 2.94 5.00 Won 2.94 xxxx.23

2006-05-17
20:59 2242544567 2006-05-17
18:57 IRE Naas 17th May / 20:50 1m Mdn / Deauville Vision
Lay 10.00 5.70 Won 10.00 xxxx.29


I am dumfounded to why you cannot beleive me - there was about 15 thousand euro matched on this horse below 9/2 - it was savailable at 11/2 on Paddypower - check Oddschecker.com for proof.

If you still don't beleive me then perhaps just ignore the thread - beleive it or not Robin there thousands backed on these races. I hope I don't have to post up proof of bets all the time. I have nothing to gain by posting false results.

Robin1982

You have misunderstood. I am not questioning your integrity. You started this thread to track your trading strategy's P&L but it was very unclear how you were calculating it. I suggest you re-read my post.

finnpark

Robin1982 wrote:

You have misunderstood. I am not questioning your integrity. You started this thread to track your trading strategy's P&L but it was very unclear how you were calculating it. I suggest you re-read my post.

I understand what your saying but to answer your query I did not back or lay it for the full 100 euro but in the interest of the thread Ive normalised everything to 100 euro. If there is any doubt that the lay cannot be achieved at £120 stake or whatever, any doubt, I will deem it unsuccessful. I need to be sure that it is possible to lay it off at odds reccommend for stake recommened and Im 100% sure that this was possible today. The thread will keep track of this, but of course if I dont always stick on £100 then it won't be real life. Its a decent guide though.

Hobart

finnpark wrote:

I understand what your saying but to answer your query I did not back or lay it for the full 100 euro but in the interest of the thread Ive normalised everything to 100 euro. If there is any doubt that the lay cannot be achieved at £120 stake or whatever, any doubt, I will deem it unsuccessful. I need to be sure that it is possible to lay it off at odds reccommend for stake recommened and Im 100% sure that this was possible today. The thread will keep track of this, but of course if I dont always stick on £100 then it won't be real life. Its a decent guide though.

I actually disagree with you. You are responsible, to be honest, for this whole thread descending into a farce.

I asked you outstraight on a number of occasions wether this was notional betting or actual betting. You have failed to give me a complete answer at any stage. You talk about odds being this, that and the other. This just adds to the confusion. And the thread has been confused from your first trade, within which you failed to allow for the correct comission and "did not look" at your return.

TBH finnpark, your behaviour leaves you open to accuasations of "not having a clue".

You also talk today about a trade only being successful "if the horse looses".

I could be a million miles off the mark here but, is it not the case that a trade is successful no matter if a horse wins or looses? Is that not the whole point of a "successful" trade?

I understand the concept of minimising one's losses, when laying. But you make no reference to the goal of this exercise at all!!

Your continuous, coulda, woulda, shoulda type answers also add to the confusion. If you lay at 5.8, do it. Don't speculate that you could have laid at xyz. It does not matter, as it does not make the trade any more succesful. It does make your bank balance a bit healthier, but as we are not dealing in the "real world" of balances and bets, it makes no difference.

To be honest finnpark, rather than clarifying and helping to explain the issue of trading, you have actually confused and muddied it.

I actually feel like closing this thread, as it helps nobody.

kippy

Can I say I am well and truly confusticated.....
I thought I had the principle of Betfair and how to use it clear in my head but not any more.......