Dutching

wb

BECAUSE THERE IS NO GAMBLING FORUM!!!! I will post this here. I may get shot down for this post, as some people dislike this kind of thing but I think there is a good oppertunity to make a small amount of cash in the 7:00 at Musselburgh by dutching 5 horses. While I reckon Fullandby should win, the others provide some nice prices to take advantage of, and each of them have a reasonable chance in my opinion. To make things simple, I will presume that the total stake is €10. Using current betfair prices, the bet would be split on the following selections:

Fullandby - currently trading @ 4 (€3.54)
Come out Fighting - currently trading @ 7.2 (€1.97)
Mr Wolf - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Highland Warrior - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Grigorvitch - currently trading @ 10 (€1.42)

Total cost of bet: €10
Return if any horse wins €14.16

To anyone considering dutching, please realsie that if things dont go right, all your bets are wasted (5 in this case) which can be very annoying indeed. Also, although you have a good chance of getting a return, there will be times where you are effectively backing odds-on and in the above example, I am risking €10 to win €14.16. Also, be careful of changing betfair prices while placing the bets.

To work out the stakes required, here is a dutching calculator:

http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/dutching.html

finnpark

Ive been lay dutching odds on bets (horses not to be placed) and its been working brilliant. Try it. Best type of races to lay place is 7 horse races, ie crap odds and only 2 places.

There may be a case of doing a reverse forecast in a 7 horse race and place laying both horses also, would it be possible to make a profit? Never do forecasts so Im not sure how the odds are worked out.

Anyway, place laying is laying at odds on for 1st and 2nd favs usually and when you do this in a 6 or 7 horse race you have a great chance of making a profit. TIn most races there is at least 1 surprise placing so its worth the risk especially at odds on.

jimmyboy

well done wbailey. good win by highland warrior

wb

Thanks Jimmy


I don't do forecasts either finn, as It is very complicated working out the odds you are getting.

Fullandby - currently trading @ 4 (€3.54)
Come out Fighting - currently trading @ 7.2 (€1.97)
Mr Wolf - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Highland Warrior - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Grigorvitch - currently trading @ 10 (€1.42

Highland Warrior wins, so the dutch is sucessful.

chump

wbailey wrote:

Fullandby - currently trading @ 4 (€3.54)
Come out Fighting - currently trading @ 7.2 (€1.97)
Mr Wolf - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Highland Warrior - currently trading @ 9.2 (€1.54)
Grigorvitch - currently trading @ 10 (€1.42)

1 Highland Warrior (A Culhane) 7/1
2 Harry Up (N Callan) 17/2
3 Catch The Cat (A Mullen) 25/1

Only one in top 3... phew
btw finnpark think you might be on to a good one with that lay 2 favs for place in races that place only pays first 2 spots... worth investigating

wb

Only one in top 3... phew

It sure gets scary sometimes....

Look at the bloody prices of the top 3 :eek:

Thankfully, mine was one of them, but it just goes to show that how easy it is to lose at this

scojones

Good lad Wayne. I followed you with this with slightly bigger stakes. Top stuff

wb

sjones wrote:

Good lad Wayne. I followed you with this with slightly bigger stakes. Top stuff

Thanks jonsey. I think I may make this a regular thread. I am working on a dutching system at the moment, so hopefully it can produce some €€€.

On a different topic, I see you done the f/c with polish power as discussed. well done with that!

scojones

wbailey wrote:

Thanks jonsey. I think I may make this a regular thread. I am working on a dutching system at the moment, so hopefully it can produce some €€€.

Excellent.

wbailey wrote:

On a different topic, I see you done the f/c with polish power as discussed. well done with that!

Cheers man, I just couldn't let it go. I didn't predict Saif Sareea winning by 5 lenghts though, the animal is still impressing me.

I see Just Observing won too, ended up going off as the 2/11 favourite. Madness!

bohsman

The sooner this new gambling forum/site comes in the better.

masterK

You're a brave man wayne, you effectively were backing at odds of 2/5 for one of your 5 to win, although it was always likely you need a near perfect strike rate to make a profit. Do you target any type of specific races, field sizes etc. I think something like this would be more suited to distance races 1M+,there is just too many unknowns in sprints, factors such as luck in running, speed away from stalls and draw advantage could have a major detrimental effect on results.

I've been tracking details of flat results so far this season and have determined that the average price of winners of 5,6 or 7 furlongs is around 10/1, while in race of 1M+ the average price of winners has been 6.7/1. This is based on a sample of around 180 races, it does suggest that outsiders win sprints more often that at other distances.

wb

Hi masterk.

Yes it does need a high strike rate to be sucessful, and this is still on trial, so Im not sure of any long term stats of how it is going to work out. Like you say, you are pretty much backing odds on, but that does not bother me too much as I lay a lot, so am kind of used to it.
At the moment I am targeting non-handicaps, purely because I find it easier to pick winners in them. I got a friend of mine who has RSB - Race Systems Builder (racing software that can sift through years of data) to run the stats for the past 10 years to see how many favs, 2nd favs 3rd favs etc have come in, to get the strike rates. I then look at a race, and see if the overall profit dutching on the top few horses 'beats' this historical strike rate.
Its a bit hard to explain, but Im hoping of a long term return of about 10%.
All that said, it is still on trial, and unproven.

finnpark

chump wrote:

btw finnpark think you might be on to a good one with that lay 2 favs for place in races that place only pays first 2 spots... worth investigating

Its definitely worth investigating. Its very hard to find 6 and 7 horse races where both the fav and 2nd fav are placed. Even when both are placed your payout is really low, usually about a 1/3 of your stake for the fav and 1/2 of your stake for the 2nd fav so I think easy money to be made but I must look at this long term.


On a separate note does any1 know the % of favs who are placed overall and also the % of favs who are placed but don't win?:)

wb

Ok then, if nobody minds, im going to trial this here.

This is on test, so follow at your peril!!

At the moment, I still have a large number of selections which is generally producing odds of about 1/5, but I hope to filter some of these out as trends emerge, and get it up to about 2/5 or higher. Anyway - One for today:

Personal Assurance - 3.05 - €4.05
Simoun - 18.5 - €0.67
Westmeath Flyer - 5.4 - €2.29
The Flyer - 6.6 - €1.87
Celioso - 11 - €1.12


A bit of a short priced one today.

Total Stake €10
Total Return if any selection wins €12.35

wb

Sorry, forgot to state that the above Dutch is for the 4:40 at Southwell.

chump

finnpark wrote:

Its definitely worth investigating. Its very hard to find 6 and 7 horse races where both the fav and 2nd fav are placed. Even when both are placed your payout is really low, usually about a 1/3 of your stake for the fav and 1/2 of your stake for the 2nd fav so I think easy money to be made but I must look at this long term.

Tried in the 1st two races at Mussel.
Layed 1st and 2nd fav with a liability of 4euro in each.

Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:50 1.74
Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:20 1.65
Profits in each race from 8euro stake.
Gona try the last as Muss as well:
Muss 5th May - 17:20 To Be Placed

Doesn't look like a big money maker anyway!

finnpark

chump wrote:

Tried in the 1st two races at Mussel.
Layed 1st and 2nd fav with a liability of 4euro in each.

Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:50 1.74
Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:20 1.65
Profits in each race from 8euro stake.
Gona try the last as Muss as well:
Muss 5th May - 17:20 To Be Placed

Doesn't look like a big money maker anyway!

Chump, Im only going to try it for the 7 horse races. Also, lay close to race time. 4.50pm Muss and 6.10pm Fontwell.

finnpark

chump wrote:

Tried in the 1st two races at Mussel.
Layed 1st and 2nd fav with a liability of 4euro in each.

Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:50 1.74
Horse Racing / Muss 5th May : To Be Placed 05-May-06 14:20 1.65
Profits in each race from 8euro stake.
Gona try the last as Muss as well:
Muss 5th May - 17:20 To Be Placed

Doesn't look like a big money maker anyway!

3.10 AT SOUTHWELL, 5 HORSE RACE:

3.10 - Southwell
1st: 3 Steppes of Gold (IRE) 4-7 F
2nd: 2 Knock Lord (IRE) 20-1

Big profit there for you, about 6 euro. 3 from 3 so far:) . And the 7 horse races are yet to come.

chump

4.50pm Muss and 6.10pm Fontwell.
Don't like the look of the 4.50 Mussel, as the FAV is too much a fav, might be an idea just ti lay the 2nd FAv there.
6.10 Fontwell looks do-able tho...

finnpark

chump wrote:

4.50pm Muss and 6.10pm Fontwell.
Don't like the look of the 4.50 Mussel, as the FAV is too much a fav, might be an idea just ti lay the 2nd FAv there.
6.10 Fontwell looks do-able tho...

The fav is only 1/10 to lay though. Worth the risk I think.

chump

finnpark wrote:

The fav is only 1/10 to lay though. Worth the risk I think.

You go for it, I'll watch
I defo think he'll be placed. It's too great a risk I think.

The 5.20 mightn't be worth the risk as well, I layed the top 2 at marginally below evens, but I reckon at least 1 of them will be placed...

finnpark

chump wrote:

You go for it, I'll watch
I defo think he'll be placed. It's too great a risk I think.

The 5.20 mightn't be worth the risk as well, I layed the top 2 at marginally below evens, but I reckon at least 1 of them will be placed...

You should have waited for the 5.20, the lay place price usually drops.

Result of 4.50:

1st: 4 Jidaar (IRE) 7-1
2nd: 6 Otelcaliforni (USA) 3-10 F

Bit of Bummer:mad: It was placed.

chump

Yea saw that... knew not to get into that one
My prices are better than whats available now on betfair... so good idea that I layed earlier... (well actually Attaca is lower, Insubordinate is now higher, mightn't even go off 2nd fav)

The money's come for Joshuas Gold, think it's between that and Attacca

Attacca
1.95
Insubordinate
1.98

chump

1st (6) Attacca
2nd (2) Joshua&acutes Gold

Well if we had have done 1st and 2nd FAVs at the off, would have lost this one.
Came out level instead...

Dangerous game.

3.58euro profit on the day

wb

Personal Assurance - 3.05 - €4.05
Simoun - 18.5 - €0.67
Westmeath Flyer - 5.4 - €2.29
The Flyer - 6.6 - €1.87
Celioso - 11 - €1.12

Westmeath Flyer wins so the dutch is a sucess.


Since I'm going to trial this here, I may as well record P&L after each bet here too.

Total no. of races dutched: 2
Strike Rate: 100%
Profit/Loss to date (using €10 per dutch): +€6.51

finnpark

chump wrote:

1st (6) Attacca
2nd (2) Joshua&acutes Gold

Well if we had have done 1st and 2nd FAVs at the off, would have lost this one.
Came out level instead...

Dangerous game.

3.58euro profit on the day

Think, some though will have to into selections as well. 7 horse races laying place could be a nice earner though if there are doubts over a horse.

wb

Again, another short priced Dutch at around 1/4, but hopefully I will get a return. As I said, when some trends start showing, I can start cutting the selections down (hopefully to about 3) but for the moment:

George Washington - 2.9 - €4.32
Sir Percy - 4.6 - €2.72
Horatio Nelson - 9.2 - €1.36
Amadeus Wolf - 10 - €1.25
Red Clubs - 36 - €0.35


Total cost of bet €10
Return if any selection wins: €12.52

thardy

deres is a dutch calculator on oddschecker.com

wb

thardy wrote:

deres is a dutch calculator on oddschecker.com

aye, I have a link to it in the first post. It is very handy. Similarly, the hedging calculator is very handy for laying off, it even takes commission into consideration.

Thanks anyway

jimmyboy

there is a good dutch available in the 1:55 at Haydock
Callow Lake @6 EUR3.24
Estepona @9 EUR2.16
Emmpat @8 EUR2.43
Into The Shadows @9 EUR2.16
Total Staked EUR10.00
Return if any selection wins EUR19.46
tHESE ARE THE 4 FAVOURITES
I HOPE THATS RIGHT

wb

jimmyboy wrote:

there is a good dutch available in the 1:55 at Haydock
Callow Lake @6 EUR3.24
Estepona @9 EUR2.16
Emmpat @8 EUR2.43
Into The Shadows @9 EUR2.16
Total Staked EUR10.00
Return if any selection wins EUR19.46
tHESE ARE THE 4 FAVOURITES
I HOPE THATS RIGHT

Well spotted that.

looks like there may be a good oppertunity there jimmy. Where did you get your prices from? Using betfair, at current prices, I make it that you would get a return of €21.75 if any selection wins. Or if you were to throw Saif Sareea in to cover the top 5 in the betting, the return would be €18.03, which seems like good value.

jimmyboy

yea your right Bailey.Saif is a good won to throw in or else Blazing Bailey. I didnt use the Betfair prices so thats how I got them figures

jimmyboy

unsuccessful dutch. Callow lake seemed to hit the last hard. if it wasnt for that I say he could have won it

wb

George Washington - 2.9 - €4.32
Sir Percy - 4.6 - €2.72
Horatio Nelson - 9.2 - €1.36
Amadeus Wolf - 10 - €1.25
Red Clubs - 36 - €0.35

George Washington wins, so the dutch is sucessful

Profit on the race: €2.52


Total no. of races dutched: 3
Strike Rate: 100%
Profit/Loss to date (using €10 per dutch): +€ 9.03

One more sucessful dutch, and I will have covered the €10 stake.

wb

Again, this is another low profit dutch at less than 1/6. Apoligies on the amount of selections, but Im still waiting for some trends, and then I can cut back the numbers some more and make this bit making this more profitable.

Newmarket- 3:30

Nannina - 8 - €1.44
Silca's Sister - 10 - €1.15
Alexander Alliance - 17 - €0.68
Flashy Wings - 5.8 - €1.99
Donna Blini - 23 - €0.50
Wake up Maggie - 29 - €0.40
La Chunga - 34 - €0.34
Rumplestiltskin - 5.3 - €2.18
Race for the stars - 8.8 - €1.31

Total cost of bet: €10
Total return if any selection wins: €11.55

jimmyboy

This is a low enough profit dutch at JUST OVER 1/2.
3:15 Killarnery

Bakers Bridge @4.3 EUR3.92
Tabaco @11.5 EUR1.47
Nassaro @11 EUR1.53
Kit Carson @11.5 EUR1.47
Just@10.5 EUR1.61

Total Staked EUR 10.00
Return if any selection wins EUR16.87
I THINK I'LL STOP POSTING THESE IF THIS DOESN'T COME IN AND LEAVE IT TO BAILEY;)

fade2black

Leave it to Bailey....sounds like a good idea for a sitcom...

jimmyboy

good idea. now all we have to think about is who stars in it

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

George Washington wins, so the dutch is sucessful

Profit on the race: €2.52


Total no. of races dutched: 3
Strike Rate: 100%
Profit/Loss to date (using €10 per dutch): +€ 9.03

One more sucessful dutch, and I will have covered the €10 stake.

Well done on your selections Wbailey but is this only providing 9 euro profit. It would be very difficult to build up a profit. The ROI is is only 30% with a 100% SR which would worry me. Very interesting though, theres a few races in Ireland where I could eliminate 2 horses which cant win at low odds so a dutch on another few could be the way to go. Well done, you seem to be learning fast at this game

finnpark

jimmyboy wrote:

good idea. now all we have to think about is who stars in it

You can do a dutch on the races I give you the lays for , PM you later

wb

finnpark wrote:

Well done on your selections Wbailey but is this only providing 9 euro profit. It would be very difficult to build up a profit. The ROI is is only 30% with a 100% SR which would worry me. Very interesting though, theres a few races in Ireland where I could eliminate 2 horses which cant win at low odds so a dutch on another few could be the way to go. Well done, you seem to be learning fast at this game

Hi finn.

After 3 dutches, It is way too early to take any trends out of it. While €9 euro profit does not seem like a lot, it is almost at the level of the stake I use for recrding this (€10), so In theory, I could take back the original €10 and gamble with the profit from now on. I am under no illusion that a 100% strike rate will not last forever, but I am aiming for an 80-90% SR over time (a few hundred dutches).While it is difficult to build a profit, the odds are similar to laying, so not impossible. I actually think a 30% ROI is very good (ask your bank for that, and they will tell you to f off!) I stated in earlier posts that I will filter down the selections to about 3-4 soon. This will provide average odds of about 2/5 or 3/10, which will be better figures for building a bank with.

you seem to be learning fast at this game

With respect, I have been interested in racing my whole life, so I am not exactly green to it.





At the moment, this is running from a system wherby I filter down horses most likely to win. As I said, 3 dutches is nothing to go by, and will increase the ROI in time, when more trends emerge.

Regards,

Wayne

jimmyboy

thats it. I think I'll stop posting my dutches. 0% after 2 runs. pretty impressive. I think I will LEAVE IT 2 BAILEY (just 4 u fade)

wb

Nannina - 8 - €1.44
Silca's Sister - 10 - €1.15
Alexander Alliance - 17 - €0.68
Flashy Wings - 5.8 - €1.99
Donna Blini - 23 - €0.50
Wake up Maggie - 29 - €0.40
La Chunga - 34 - €0.34
Rumplestiltskin - 5.3 - €2.18
Race for the stars - 8.8 - €1.31

None of the above win, so the dutch is unsucessful. I think it is fair to say that most people were surprised at Speciosa winning at 10/1. Thats racing for you though!


Total no. of races dutched: 4
Strike Rate: 75%
Profit/Loss to date (using €10 per dutch): -€1.00

finnpark

jimmyboy wrote:

thats it. I think I'll stop posting my dutches. 0% after 2 runs. pretty impressive. I think I will LEAVE IT 2 BAILEY (just 4 u fade)

Did you get my donkey's today

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

None of the above win, so the dutch is unsucessful. I think it is fair to say that most people were surprised at Speciosa winning at 10/1. Thats racing for you though!


Total no. of races dutched: 4
Strike Rate: 75%
Profit/Loss to date (using €10 per dutch): -€1.00

Your picking very tough races, how did you know the fitness of any of the horses out there. If I were to dutch I would pick maiden hurdles in Ireland, or general 2 horse races where only 2 horses have a realistic chance of winning. Good Luck with it anyway, Irish racing is way more predictable though.

wb

finnpark wrote:

Your picking very tough races, how did you know the fitness of any of the horses out there. If I were to dutch I would pick maiden hurdles in Ireland, or general 2 horse races where only 2 horses have a realistic chance of winning. Good Luck with it anyway, Irish racing is way more predictable though.

It is a system. NOT method picking.

Normally I wait until I have had around 100-200 bets before I analyse how good/bad a system is doing. This system has had only FOUR dutches. That is nothing to go by.

While I welcome comments and feedback, the selection process is my own, and I dont change systems as I go along. Sometimes the staking plan will change, and I will try my best to filter the selections, but the fundemental selection process must remain so I can prove/disprove the system.

Feel free to post your own dutches though. Just make sure you record p&L so people can see where it is going.

wb

Towcester:

2:10
John Diamond - 3.95 - €4.39
Different Class - 4.3 - €4.03
Injunear - 11 - €1.58

Total cost of bet €10
Return if any selection wins: €17.34

3:10
Sound Skin - 7 - €2.90
Rightontime - 3.8 - €5.34
Will She Spin - 11.5 - €1.76

Total Cost of bet: €10
Return if any selections wins: €20.29

[nicK]

wbailey wrote:

Towcester:

2:10
John Diamond - 3.95 - €4.39
Different Class - 4.3 - €4.03
Injunear - 11 - €1.58

Total cost of bet €10
Return if any selection wins: €17.34

3:10
Sound Skin - 7 - €2.90
Rightontime - 3.8 - €5.34
Will She Spin - 11.5 - €1.76

Total Cost of bet: €10
Return if any selections wins: €20.29

slightly more risk today.. i think today may be the day that this whole dutching business fails you..

as it's a system, i'd say you should be fairly more selective in finding suitable races..

good luck though..

wb

[nicK] wrote:

slightly more risk today.. i think today may be the day that this whole dutching business fails you..

as it's a system, i'd say you should be fairly more selective in finding suitable races..

good luck though..

I am starting to feel that I am banging my head against a wall here, and perhaps I should trial this on paper, instead of posting here.

Nobody seems to understand what a system is...

i think today may be the day that this whole dutching business fails you..

after today, I will have dutched a total of 6 races. This is NOTHING to go by. You would need to have AT LEAST 100 races under the belt before it can be proven/disproven

as it's a system, i'd say you should be fairly more selective in finding suitable races..

As it is a system, I dont make the selections. THE SYSTEM DOES. If certain criteria are met, the horse is a qualifier. Simple. My own feelings on its chances do not come into it.

I said earlier this is on trial...... It is highly possible that it may fail, most systems do, but to be honest, I dont think a system can be judged on half a dozen bets.

Thanks for the input, but I think you are mixing up system betting with method betting.

Regards,

Wayne

[nicK]

wbailey wrote:

I am starting to feel that I am banging my head against a wall here, and perhaps I should trial this on paper, instead of posting here.

Nobody seems to understand what a system is...





after today, I will have dutched a total of 6 races. This is NOTHING to go by. You would need to have AT LEAST 100 races under the belt before it can be proven/disproven






As it is a system, I dont make the selections. THE SYSTEM DOES. If certain criteria are met, the horse is a qualifier. Simple. My own feelings on its chances do not come into it.

I said earlier this is on trial...... It is highly possible that it may fail, most systems do, but to be honest, I dont think a system can be judged on half a dozen bets.

Thanks for the input, but I think you are mixing up system betting with method betting.

Regards,

Wayne

ok.. your system betting..
i thought you were using some sort of program throwing out horses that are so many points above the other horses... my recommendation was to only select races that are so many % points ahead of the field..

btw, are you actually putting money down on these selections?

wb

[nicK] wrote:

ok.. your system betting..
i thought you were using some sort of program throwing out horses that are so many points above the other horses... my recommendation was to only select races that are so many % points ahead of the field..

btw, are you actually putting money down on these selections?

Thanks nick.
I worked this out using RSB (Race systems builder) software, that analyses racing trends since 1994. Obviously, I need to have cut-off's where if the price is too low, the race does not qualify etc. While the system has proved to be profitable in the past, there is no guarantee that trends will stay the same. I hope it evens out over a few hundred bets, and eventually want to be making about €1-2 for every €10 invested.

Yes I do put money down on this. It makes me more diciplined, and it helps me stick to the rules rigidly if my own € is at stake. While I record this here using €10 for simplicity, the average stake I use per race is about €25. This, of course, is money I am prepared to lose.

Again, I must state that this is on trial, and like most systems, money loss is a possibility, so I would advise anyone to wait for a hundred or two races, before hopping on