Guineas

ChuckProphet

Any thoughts on this weekends guineas?
2 good e/w shouts I reckon:
Opera Cape @ 20-1 in the 2000.
Donna blini @ 16-1 in the 1000.

Redlancer

I have Red Clubs at 66/1 for the guineas. What do ye think? It is always hard to predict but I like a horse with a recent run under there belt and he has experience in the bag.

Another plus is Barry Hills is never too far away. I would fear Killybegs though from the same stable however there is always a horse somewhere in the long grass. I like Hortio Nelson too

fr wishy washy

Think the top two in the 2000 can be opposed -O Brien's selected & Sir Percy so I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner.

Redlancer

sorry boys after opening another thread there. I was just saying I have Red Clubs @ 66/1 what do ye think

scojones

Redlancer wrote:

sorry boys after opening another thread there. I was just saying I have Red Clubs @ 66/1 what do ye think

No problem mate, merged

eoinok

For me it woudl be Nelson.

George is too much of a thinker and a bit of a funt if you ask me!!

ChuckProphet

eoinok wrote:

For me it woudl be Nelson.

George is too much of a thinker and a bit of a funt if you ask me!!

I was gonna back horatio nelson till O'Brien came out and said he will come on for the run and isn't as forward as george!
Red Clubs at 66-1. He's a decent e/w bet I suppose.

Hawk Wing

George all the way lads, he's was 10 lengths a better horse than Red Clubs at 2, If he has trained on, he'll massacre everything in that Field. But I guess thats the big question, Horatio is the biggest threat if you ask me, he should have beaten Sir Percy out of sight in the dewhurst, Three times he went to go except was blocked. I'd take asset as an outsider, he has an electric turn of foot, which could be important if its a tight field coming into and out of the dip

scargill

another one at a big price in the 2000 Gns is Araafa , trained by Jeremy Noseda.

DublinAl

Sir Percy wreckoned to like a bit of toe in the ground and won the Dewhurst because of a clear running. Horatio should have won and won well and Percy won't get his preferred ground (thought to be on the soft side of good).

O'Brien colts are behind this year while his fillies seem to be ahead of them. I think the Guineas has come a few weeks to early for George (but bang on for Rumple)

George is not a relaxed horse and I think to get the mile he would have to be very relaxed in the race and also would need a sedate pace in order to best used his phenomenal speed burst at the business end... I'm guessing a fast pace ensure by a Goldolphin lead horse will take a gear out of him.

Horatio has beaten better types.

Horatio guaranteed to get the trip, my concern is that is the trip might be too short for him.

Horatio Nelson if 6/1 or better is great value.

Asset & Killybegs both @ 12/1 and both get the distance, like top of the ground have good place chances.

4 pt win Horation Nelson
2pt e/w Asset
2pt e/w KillyBegs

Bismarks: The first 2 in the betting .... that's a bold statement isn't it :eek:

PS What's the earliest time I can get the PriceWise tips in the a.m. without buying the paper. Anyone any suggestions ... I want to start trading a bit more on Betfair but first I want to see the stats on odds movement due to PriceWise before plunging a bit.

ChuckProphet

DublinAl wrote:

PS What's the earliest time I can get the PriceWise tips in the a.m. without buying the paper. Anyone any suggestions ... I want to start trading a bit more on Betfair but first I want to see the stats on odds movement due to PriceWise before plunging a bit.

I remember someone on this forum knowing the pricewise tip the night before. Said they got it on the racingpost or betfair forum (can't remember which). Very useful to know that early as it's guaranteed to shorten.

DublinAl

Thanks ChuckP

I'll check the Betfair forum ... never used it and I've been using Betfair for a year or so now.

If anybody else there knows .... let me know, I'd appreciate it !

masterK

Prisewise is usually posted on the Betfair forum between 10-11 the night before. It's usually pretty easy to spot who it is by the betting, also Paddy Power always cut the price of the selections well before they have been posted anywhere, so their site is usually the first port of call.

DublinAl

Cheers MasterK .... I'm going to see if the regular masses have any huge influence over the prices i.e. those that bet in and around lunchtime onwards. I know a lot of people that blindly follow his tips.

If a trend emerges , I'll give it a go.

Cheers
Al

masterK

DublinAl wrote:

Cheers MasterK .... I'm going to see if the regular masses have any huge influence over the prices i.e. those that bet in and around lunchtime onwards. I know a lot of people that blindly follow his tips.

If a trend emerges , I'll give it a go.

Cheers
Al

I usually find that the price actually gets bigger after lunch time on a lot of his selections, there seems to be a plunge just after they are realised until late morning, then they gradually edge back up. There are however some real plunges that continue until the off.

The problem is it's virtually impossible to get any sort of money on the selections at the advertised prices. As I said Paddy Power usually cut the prices long before they are released. I think Ladbrokes hold the prices in their shops for 15 minutes after opening, but not on their website.

masterK

2000 Guineas

George Washington is a shocking price for what he's achieved so far. He may well be the superstar that Ballydoyle seem to think he is and let's hope he is but as for what he has achieved to date it's hard to back him at that price. His only really notable run was in the Phoenix stakes which he won by 8 lengths. All the talk on him reminds me of the hype surrounding One Cool Cat and we all remember what he achieved.

At this point I'm quite attracted to the 8/1 odds about Amadeus Wolfe, improved with every race last year culminating in wins in both the Gimcrack and Middle Park, he's an extremely tough customer, one who you know will give you a run for your money.

1000 Guineas

I'd agree 100% with ChuckProphet that Donna Blini is overpriced at 16/1 for an each way bet. My main bet for this race will probably be Rumplestiltskin, she's shown a lot more that her hyped up stablemate in the 2000 and is still very much a backable price. The main concern is how she'll handle the ground, her only effort on Good to Firm was also her only defeat.

DublinAl

Looks like I might be p**sing in the wind then ... seemed to easy an idea. I'll keep a look at it though.

Can't seem to find his slections on the Betfair forum though .... do you have any idea what thread they usually have it under ?

Cheers
Al

masterK

There won't be a thread there until Friday night. Actually there'll be loads of threads on his selections, most of them muppets making up selections claiming to be Pricewises. Keep and eye out for a poster name J Rozel, he's usually the first one with the selections.

DublinAl

will do.

Redlancer

I still cant get away from Barry Hills runners and I think both will run very well.I still think Red Clubs will have everything in his favour such as experience and the ground. He has definitely trained on and I expect a big run for my money.

Horatio Nelson will give his all and is great value, with George he might not even get in the stalls

Bartonprince

masterK wrote:

2000 Guineas

George Washington is a shocking price for what he's achieved so far. He may well be the superstar that Ballydoyle seem to think he is and let's hope he is but as for what he has achieved to date it's hard to back him at that price. His only really notable run was in the Phoenix stakes which he won by 8 lengths. All the talk on him reminds me of the hype surrounding One Cool Cat and we all remember what he achieved.

At this point I'm quite attracted to the 8/1 odds about Amadeus Wolfe, improved with every race last year culminating in wins in both the Gimcrack and Middle Park, he's an extremely tough customer, one who you know will give you a run for your money.

1000 Guineas

I'd agree 100% with ChuckProphet that Donna Blini is overpriced at 16/1 for an each way bet. My main bet for this race will probably be Rumplestiltskin, she's shown a lot more that her hyped up stablemate in the 2000 and is still very much a backable price. The main concern is how she'll handle the ground, her only effort on Good to Firm was also her only defeat.

Would you bet against Grandera if he was running in this Mile contest with him being the World Series winner? I wouldn't. Would i bet against his full brother who has trashed a field already at 2?........ Yes and no.

I tipped Amadeus Wolf on here before at 4/1 (another group 1 race) and someone took the bet and he won. I'd do the same again.

Horatio Nelson is good, but he is small, he's not been outstanding, but i think he's got some engine on him.

Amadeus Wolf to win
Horatio Nelson 2nd
Asset 3rd
George Washington 4th.

He'll need a run to get into top form then watch him trounce everything again when he steps up to 12 Furlongs (if he does).

Hawk Wing

Reportds that Fallon has been injured last night in Tipperary

fr wishy washy

Hawk Wing wrote:

Reportds that Fallon has been injured last night in Tipperary

He hit his foot exiting the stalls and went to Hospital for x rays,I think he has a cut on his foot as well.

Hawk Wing

fr wishy washy wrote:

He hit his foot exiting the stalls and went to Hospital for x rays,I think he has a cut on his foot as well.

It will take a lot for Fallon to miss this ride, lets hope he ok for it

ChuckProphet

Horatio nelson to win. opera cape e/w.
Apart from Barry Hills winning it once with Haafhd, the last 10 2000 guineas winners have come from either Godolphin, Stoute or O'Brien. Stoute has no runner so I'll stick with the other two.

Pighead

Yeah Fallons ok to ride alright. No broken bones for Kieran.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/4975078.stm

Have already backed Sir Percy each way at 5's so i'll leave it at that I think. Tough race to call. Maybe Asset might get a bit of Pigheads money on a day.

ChuckProphet

Asset was Pricewise's selection a few weeks back. Probably a lot shorter now than then.

Redlancer

well what Barry Hills says always has to be respected. In february Maids Causeway was 33/1 for the 1000 Guineas and he was after saying she would go well.

So when he says Red Clubs will turn form with Amdeaus Wolf I think that has to be respected. Who will win the 1000 Guineas I was going to back Race For the Stars but I am not sure now

thardy

new to boards jus wonderin wat does anyone think of frost giant seen him win at leopardstown in oct very impressive

fade2black

It would have been nice to see O Brien's horses come out from under that grey cloud before the weekend's big races...both horses have quality profiles though and it's just impossible to leave them out of your thoughts.

For tomorrow's race I'll be having an interest in 3 horses, George Washington, Asset (ante-post bet) and Olympian Odyssey. The last named is just a highly speculative choice but he is a very well regarded horse who was expected to show much improvement from 2-3. Thought of as a derby horse by barry hills this could be a lively each way shout.

As for the ladies race I'm very interested in Silca's Sister and Speciosa. I think Sunday's one is a lot harder to read than saturdays...those bloody women are so hard to predict...especially flashy wings...

Bartonprince

thardy wrote:

new to boards jus wonderin wat does anyone think of frost giant seen him win at leopardstown in oct very impressive

No harm going each way on him. What is he, 66's? I'd stick something on him.

O'Brien rarely has a bad horse, and he sometimes pulls placed high pricers due to the strngth of the pedegrees.

Remember Sholokhov? 200/1 2nd place. Ice Dancer also got a big price win or 2nd, Roosevelt, or someone was 3rd behind Alamshar at 150/1 in the Irish Derby. So 66/1 wouldn't be an out of the ordinary for O'Brian 3rd (or even winner)

RedPeppers

Sir Percy all the way for me. Will take some stopping. Tregoning rates him as best he's ever trained and is confident of his chances.

wb

This is proving a really difficult race to pick for me. There are 3 or 4 that could all get my vote, but I have decided on Red Clubs to be placed (7/1 on betfair). He is a very decent sort, goes well on most ground, but especially good & good to firm. He has a good jockey on board, and his trainer is doing quite well at the moment. While some of the others in the betting do look like they have great chances, I kind of feel that this horse is getting overlooked with all the hype, and 7/1 to be placed seems like a good price to me.

jimmyboy

Pighead wrote:

Yeah Fallons ok to ride alright. No broken bones for Kieran.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/4975078.stm

Have already backed Sir Percy each way at 5's so i'll leave it at that I think. Tough race to call. Maybe Asset might get a bit of Pigheads money on a day.

yeah Fallon is running, but he can only run in the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. I think he has been withdrawn from every other race

TwistsAndTurns

2000 guineas, I`ll have a nice e/w bet on Asset, if the ground holds good to firm R. Hughes thinks this live-wire will be there.

1000 guineas, again an e/w bet on Donna Blini, with M J Kinane on board who already said she stays well, he should have her up close at the end.

chump

eirebhoys wrote:

2000 guineas, I`ll have a nice e/w bet on Asset, if the ground holds good to firm R. Hughes thinks this live-wire will be there.

I'm torn between Asset or some higher priced outsider, Frost Giant or Final Verse as my second choice. Decided on Frost Giant, backed for place at 16.0

Leaning towards backing the fav, George, to win it... 33.6% of the money is on him for the race, good vibes, high confidence, why not?
Still haven't bet on this one.

finnpark

chump wrote:

I'm torn between Asset or some higher priced outsider, Frost Giant or Final Verse as my second choice.

Leaning towards backing the fav, George, to win it... 33.6% of the money is on him for the race, good vibes, high confidence, why not?

I think George too, O'Brien has blatently lied about his chances which is a tip in itself but its odds dont inspire at all so very small interest bet on Final Verse at 66/1. Unlikely but overpriced.

masterK

I was thinking of backing Amadeus wolfe earlier in the week I've sort of cooled on the idea and I have to say I really don't have a clue who to back now. There are major if's and but's about so many of the field. I've already backed Asset to be placed at 3/1.

scargill

I'll post up my selections (and brief reason) for the 2000 Guineas just in case they win so I can gloat about it later on....

Amadeus Wolf at 10/1 (reckon it has great chance - has as much ability as GW and HN - if trained by AOB would be half this price!)
Red Clubs at 40/1 (trainer and recent run)
Misu Bond at 130/1 (consistently improving,distance doubts) [and backed place at 12/1]
Araafa at 140/1 (Noseda!) [and backed place at 16/1]

Crumbs

Last year, after George Washington's juvenile wins, I felt that if he was to win any race in the following year(s), it would only be the 2000 Guineas. With very good and very precocious 2-year olds, I always worry that they won't train on, that other horses will progress past them as 3-year olds and that when they contest the top-class races with real strength in depth, they'll be found out as a dog. However with the 2000 Guineas, it can come early enough in the season that they can be primed to run to their very best (and degrade afterwards) while others in the race will still come on for the run (eg. being suited more to the Derby, such as Horation Nelson).

This may all be spurious thinking and George could end up winning everything this year or more likely, winning nothing. I don't really know. With every year, both the Guineas are becoming more and more like a watching brief, a trial for future races at Epsom or Ascot. More horses are winning it now on their seasonal debuts rather than winning it as their second or third race of the year.

It's always hard to take the Ballydoyle hype machine at face value. Every horse they have is always speedy enough to win the July Cup and has the stamina for the National. Most quotes from O'Brien et al are made so as to look good in writing for the future stud careers of the horses. Even so, they really seem to love Georgie-Boy and even though their other horses have been running like muck so far this year, I think they'll have him fit and ready for this race. It was similar last year with Footstepsinthesand and Virginia Waters - poor form for the stable going into the weekend but those two were primed to their best and won easily.

I think George will win today but 15/8 isn't the price I would be hoping for. Possibly a no-bet or maybe a 1pt win, I haven't quite decided yet.

Of the others, Sir Percy is the one with the best form for this race and looks a rock-solid proposition to be at least placed. The trainer is very bullish that everything has gone right with the horse and that he'll run a big race. Tregoning is one trainer whose comments you can safely take on board. Amadeus Wolf is a sprinter and if anything else wins, it could be considered a poor Guineas.

iloveireland

FINAL VERSE at 50/1. great price.

finnpark

iloveireland wrote:

FINAL VERSE at 50/1. great price.

Actually its 70/1 at Pinnacle and 66/1 many other places.

chump

George is just unbackable at the price. I thought his price might become more reasonable.

Lepping about in his box now tho, so maybe will drift...

I don't know who to back!

[nicK]

chump wrote:

George is just unbackable at the price. I thought his price might become more reasonable.

Lepping about in his box now tho, so maybe will drift...

I don't know who to back!

manage to back him?
i decided on sir. percy for the win.. didn't mind losing to george after that performance though..

Cyrus

i backed him to win and amadeus wolf to place

what a run from george he's sensational!

[nicK]

Cyrus wrote:

he's sensational!

jeez, ya could have let us know before the start?

wb

I ended up doing red peppers for the place

What a race though. Im in college studying at the moment, and I drove down to watch it in the bookies. Thouroughly enjoyed it, and well done to George, likewise well done to fallon.

scojones

Well done Fade, the winner and a 33/1 place. credit where it's due

wb

For tomorrow's race I'll be having an interest in 3 horses, George Washington, Asset (ante-post bet) and Olympian Odyssey

Aye, very good call, and a great price of 33/1 to go with it. Well done FTB

masterK

GW looks some horse, it's been quite a few years since there's been a more impressive winner of a classic. Lets hope he goes on to be a superstar.

Crumbs

Impressive run by George and I hope that I turn out to be wrong in my earlier assertion that he'd win this and then not win anything else afterwards.