the sinking of Nicky Power

connie147

O.K.,lets get this straight.Nicky and I are good friends and last friday I sent him packing from the Kilkenny open when my JJ cracked his cowbows.Nicky felt I shouldnt have called his reraise,I disagree and now Im posting for further impartial opinion.
Blinds are 300-600 with a 50 ante.average stack in tournament(kilkenny cup-€500 F/O)is 12000.90 starters,we,re down to approx 60.Im in a rush of cards during the last 90 mins,getting my stack up to 40,000 from 11,000 and dominating the table.Just knocked a player out and Nicky Power is moved to his seat.Nicky is giving it the verbals from the start,threatening to raise my blind just for fun and loads more which is great cause I enjoy the crack myself.About 30 mins after Nicks arrival,the following hand occurred.UTG gioes all-in for 4,900(he is on the table all evening and his range here is almost definately any ace-7 or better.He should be gone long ago but got lucky.Im UTG+1 and I have JJ,so I flat call his all-in.Folded all the way to Nicky in the SB who announces all-in for another 8,500.Now its back to me and im sitting there thinking.Nickys at the speech play from which I pick up he has K-K(thats what he wants me to think anyway).Now if he has A-K(I reckon 1 of his aces is with the original raiser) thats in my favour.theres approx 25000 in the pot and its costing me 8500 to call...about 3/1.If he has K-K,im a 4/1 dog but if he has A-K,then im better than evens.I count my stack and deduce if I lose the pot after calling,Ill still have 28000,more than twice the chip average,and I have a chance to get rid of a dangerous opponent of the table I was dominating.Anyway,I called,Nicky had K-K,original raiser had A-9 and I hit a beautiful one eyed jack to take out the two lads and up my chip stack to 60,000.
Now,Nicky feels I shouldnt have called<I felt it was marginal but all things considered the call was right.WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Hitman Actual

Getting 3/1 it's surely a standard call. Why do you put his range so tight? AA, KK or AK, right? Even against that you're no worse than a 2/1 dog. But I'd imagine he'd try to isolate UTG with 99, TT, maybe even AQ as well.

Anyway, if he has KK, he wants you there with JJ.

cardshark202

Yeah this is a standard enough call and a good one. wp

califano

If you were prepared to call an all in behind you then why didnt you just go all in first instead of just calling UTG's bet?.This way youve more chance of losing anyone holding AK?.

Daithio

I don't think it's so standard at all. It all depends on the player, and I KNOW and Connie knows that the only hand that Nicky is pushing with there that JJ is doing well against is AK. He's not doing that with TT or lower. I reckon it's either AA, KK or QQ, and AK a very small amount of the time. TBH I don't think Nicky would push here with AK. I think it's a fold, solely because of the player you are up against. Nice suckout though!:D

MrPillowTalk

why flat call the raise? I push every time to make sure it goes hu.

also I think you know your probably beat once he moves in but with so much in I might call and try and get lucky.

Ollieboy

Firstly, why flat call, you should have been pushing to force out any AQ hands and even AK hands, in that way the only person going to call is AA/KK, but I guess thats why you limp. Now Nicky pushes and he's telling you that he has AA/KK/AK, but you decide to call because of pot odds! If you want to play with odds and get lucky, close your eyes and pick a horse, but you knew when he pushs you were behind and everything else you say is just trying to justify the call. You only had 4.6k invest and could have easily got away from the hands, but maybe you thought Nicky was at it?

I think its a poor call and you got reward, but Nicky should have been happy with your call as he got the chance to triple up, as all he had to avoid was 5 outs.

But when he push, you must have known you were behind.

Its a fold for me and keep the additional 8k for another call later, but you got lucky.

Hitman Actual

If he pushes with AK here every time, then I still think it's a call, purely on pot odds. He's getting 3/1 on a 2/1 shot. Fair enough, Daithio thinks he wont very often (and Dave obviously knows his style), but with his stack size the way it is (8K more, with antes at 300/600/50), he may push with AK a lot more.

nicnicnic

The Question here for me is does connie believe my verbal and i think he did. I said "connie i dont think youve got aces so I'm all in" bacically telling him I've got KK. My logic is that i can pick up 10k for 5 without risking my tourney if connie folds.

Now connie says he couldnt leave the chips in there and he nearly had the odds but if he belives me its a bad call pure and simple. If its a cash game maybe but in a tournament im never gonna put my chips in if I know I'm a 4/1 dog, dosent matter what value I'm getting.

The reason that the call really annoyed me was that you rivered that jack. At least you put them to good use Connie, well done on another great finish.

Ollieboy

nicnicnic wrote:

The Question here for me is does connie believe my verbal and i think he did. I said "connie i dont think youve got aces so I'm all in" bacically telling him I've got KK.

Is this allowed, discussing the hand during play? And telling a player what you have....

DeVore

Yeah the call wouldnt annoy you if he hadn't caught that jack

I think its a good call but only because he has 40k of a stack. So, losing 10k (while painful) doesnt start to dictate his play afterwards. I dunno about pushing preflop either, though I admit my first reaction was "why didnt you push Connie!?". Depending on the stacks behind me because I dont want to risk my whole stack with JJ just to get heads up with this guy.... The only hands calling are WAY ahead and you could find that someone wakes up with a monster behind you. The call says a lot already!

I think he has to call you. Mostly because of your tens versus my 9's in the cash game in the Open recently
Gwan Connie!!

DeV.

DeVore

Ollieboy wrote:

Is this allowed, discussing the hand during play? And telling a player what you have....

technically not only did he not tell him what he had, he never actually mentioned his hand at all


DeV.

OilBeefHooked2

nicnicnic wrote:

Now connie says he couldnt leave the chips in there and he nearly had the odds but if he belives me its a bad call pure and simple. If its a cash game maybe but in a tournament im never gonna put my chips in if I know I'm a 4/1 dog, dosent matter what value I'm getting.

Ul nic and wp connie.

Nic i think the opposite is true if this was a cash game its a fairly easy fold considering the action, and also its a fold for me every time if its for all my chips with that kinda action in a F/O tourney, but as the OP said he would have 28k left if he called (leaving him in a comfortable situation if he loses) with the average stack at 12k so IMHO its a good call even if hes behind to AA KK QQ, tbh its the luxury he has with that chip stack.

Btw its the kinda situation your looking for with KK in the sb as even if the short stack spikes an Ace and the JJ doesn't improve your left with more chips than you sarted the hand with.

Its always a sickener when it hits on the river:(

BrokenArrows

I know in this situation its not against the rules but in a game is it against the rules to say I have trip aces just to mess with the others.

Hitman Actual

david-k wrote:

but as the OP said he would have 28k left if he called (leaving him in a comfortable situation if he loses) with the average stack at 12k so IMHO its a good call even if hes behind to AA KK QQ, tbh its the luxury he has with that chip stack.

I disagree with this, david. The only reason to call here is if you're getting the price to call, given the hand range of the all-in. (And after Nic's explanation of the situation, I dont think he was anymore). Calling just because it wont hurt your stack too badly isn't a good reason, imo.

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

If its a cash game maybe but in a tournament im never gonna put my chips in if I know I'm a 4/1 dog, dosent matter what value I'm getting.

So your getting 20/1 and you'd fold would you? Because its a tournament? lol

Culchie

If Nicnicnic's image is so 'rock-like', as it appears to be.....and he is obviously highly regarded .... it would convince me to call.

Daft as that seems.:D

Goodluck2me

rounders123 wrote:

If you were prepared to call an all in behind you then why didnt you just go all in first instead of just calling UTG's bet?.This way youve more chance of losing anyone holding AK?.

well he can call nickys all in but if a stack of say 28-30K looked down to find AA/KK/QQ hed be more annoyed. it meant he had the choice basically to call or nto to call... it also looks quite strong as if you dont need to isolate, maybe you want value?

nicnicnic

Hectorjelly wrote:

So your getting 20/1 and you'd fold would you? Because its a tournament? lol

I firmly believe the only time to call if you know you’re a 4/1 dog is if you’re in trouble.


As for being a rock, yep definetly I love being a rock, anybody who has ever played with me will verify this.

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

I firmly believe the only time to call if you know you’re a 4/1 dog is if you’re in trouble.

You should call if you know you're a 4/1 dog if the pot is laying you greater than 4/1. If its marginal folding is fine, otherwise its not.

edited for politeness

connie147

MrPillowTalk wrote:

why flat call the raise? I push every time to make sure it goes hu.

also I think you know your probably beat once he moves in but with so much in I might call and try and get lucky.

There is a good player from ennis two to my left with approx 25000 and if he did what nicky did,flat calling with the jacks would allow me to get away from it.Like I said,another 8000 was not gonna break me.It was a bad beat tio give Nicky but Im still convinced the pot was big enough for me to call it.If nicky had another few grand it probably would have made me lay down.If I had kings or Aces I would have moved all-in to isolate the UTG.

connie147

nicnicnic wrote:

I firmly believe the only time to call if you know you’re a 4/1 dog is if you’re in trouble.


As for being a rock, yep definetly I love being a rock, anybody who has ever played with me will verify this.

ROCK? I never said you were a rock.I said you were a very good player.Dont be trying to give yourself a rock image and then play on it.jesus ye are cute hoors down that way.I suppose if i told the story how I busted you out of the €250 game at citywest a few months back when I called your raise preflop(me holding 88),and then called your continuation all-in on a 10 high flop with you holding A-J,it might ruin your rock image so ill say nothing.(lmao).
seriously nicky,I do believe that the better standard a plarer reaches,the more likely he is to be knocked out of tournaments by a bad beat because hes usually ahead when he gets his chips in.sorry again buddy:D

nicnicnic

for hector

Ollieboy wrote:

but you decide to call because of pot odds! If you want to play with odds and get lucky, close your eyes and pick a horse,

Do you call every time just because you have pot odds in a tournament? I dont think so, if you do then stop doing it

nicnicnic

Hey Connie no worries mate and i really enjoyed this post, dam I dont even consider a 4/1 a bad beat, now the 20/1 one i got in the open that hurt.

p s thanks for reminding me about the citywest(also get it right i pushed allin after you hit your set on the turn), thats two I owe you, your time will come lol. Look forward to seeing you on saturday week for your super sat for the big one where you'll probably win your third seat, dam how many do you want connie

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

for hector



Do you call every time just because you have pot odds in a tournament? I dont think so, if you do then stop doing it

I think its clear you dont know what pot odds means, but yes I would nearly always (maybe always) call an all in if I felt it would be a mistake not to based on the odds I was offered. What ollieboy said is incorrect and pretty foolish. Those who ignore pot odds would probably be better off betting on horses.

In the hand itself, it was a MISTAKE to call the all in if connie thought you were always going to have an overpair. This is primarily because he wasnt getting 4/1. If AK could ever be part of your range, then in fact folding would of been a terrible mistake - and folding would of been a worse mistake in that scenario than calling in the 1st. So I think unless he can be sure that you cant have AK calling is better. I dont know what your range is there.

Lets say that connie was somehow being offered 10/1, but knew you had KK. By what your saying, he should fold anyway. But by folding their he is giving up a huge amount of equity. Do you know what I mean when I say that? If not I can explain it. The only justification for folding would be if he could pass up this equity in the knowledge he could probably find a better spot for it later. But if you do the maths there is no way any player no matter how good they are could regain the equity they have passed up. If he was being offered 4/1 then folding would be fine, as calling would be equity or EV neutral. In this case whether or not he had a big stack would be important.

nicnicnic

Cheers for your opinion which I respect and the offer for explanation of pot odds. But I do understand pot odds and what you’re saying, it’s just that our opinions/outlook differ on the subject. I think your making a mistake many predominantly cash players make in relation to pot odds and tournaments. In cash game I would agree with your thinking but definitely not in a tournament, there’s so many more variables that you must consider. I firmly believe if any tournament player calls most of the time when the odds dictate they are doomed to failure in this genre of the game.

Take this scenario, say theres 2000 chips in a pot pre flop and I’ve got 2000 left. The flop gives me an open ended straight draw and a player bets 1000 making the pot 3000, it’s folded to me and I think he has an over pair and I’ve got 8 outs. I'm about 2/1 to hit. I’m getting 3/1; but I’m not calling here, your seeing value i.e. 3/1 a 2/1 shot while I’m seeing myself as a 2/1 dog to win the pot. In tournaments I wanna get chips in when I’m the person with the over pair and 66% fav to win and not the 33% dog. But it’s just my opinion.

kpnuts

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think its clear you dont know what pot odds means, but yes I would nearly always (maybe always) call an all in if I felt it would be a mistake not to based on the odds I was offered.

That would be fine in cash games, Hector, but if you can't see that there's more to tournament poker, perhaps it is you that should stick to the horses!

Daithio

I have to agree with nicnicnic and kpnuts on this one. OK, pot odds do matter in tournaments, of course they do, but there are definitely times when they don't apply. I think in general calling for all your chips or a good portion of your chips when you know you are behind in a tournament is a very bad idea. It all depends on certain variables of course, but there definitely are circumstances where folding even though you are getting the correct pot odds is the right play.

Hectorjelly

nicnicnic wrote:

Cheers for your opinion which I respect and the offer for explanation of pot odds. But I do understand pot odds and what you’re saying, it’s just that our opinions/outlook differ on the subject. I think your making a mistake many predominantly cash players make in relation to pot odds and tournaments. In cash game I would agree with your thinking but definitely not in a tournament, there’s so many more variables that you must consider. I firmly believe if any tournament player calls most of the time when the odds dictate they are doomed to failure in this genre of the game.

I dont agree with you here. Now I think we are talking at cross purpose to some extent - I think you are taking what Im saying up slightly wrongly, I probably wasnt clear. Id agree that its good strategy in tournaments to stay away from draws, but there are times when the pot odds are so overwhelming ly in your favour that folding would be a big mistake.

You might be right that a lot of cash game players make mistakes in tournaments and dont take other variables into account. This isnt true of me.

Your example isnt great because the bet is 1k but its unlikely you will get to see both cards for the 1k, in fact you will be put in on the turn and so its really 2k to see both, which makes the whole thing EV neutral. Folding here would be fine.

nicnicnic wrote:

In tournaments I wanna get chips in when I’m the person with the over pair and 66% fav to win and not the 33% dog. But it’s just my opinion.

You would make a good politician! This sentance is pretty meaningless, of course its better to get your chips in as an overpair. But sometimes you are
better off calling all your chips off as a 33% dog than folding, which is the real decision.

Daithio

wrong user..

ocallagh

Pot odds of course come into it, but you must value your tournament life too. The fact that your tournament life has a value means you must pass up +EV situations now and again.

Putting a value on your tournament life is never easy though... and I think people get it wrong the whole time.

I think the JJ hand mentioned in this thread is marginal. I don't see a problem with folding, but if you can put your opponent on AK even 30% of the time it is probably ok to call. You still have twice the average, and as connie said he had a chance of eliminating a decent player.

It would be interesting if someone could come up with an eqution to determine the value of your tournament life. It would have to include your stack size, your ability against the average opponent in the field, the payout structure and the amount of time left to invest in the tournament..

edit for being stupid

strewelpeter

Excellent thread , but there is a question thats bothering me from this and a couple other threads recently, and its been a problem for me when I think I'm getting what I'd call straightforward reads from better players (betting patterns, positional raises etc.).

Now fair enough if it is all about who the players here and what they know about each other and the relative stacks and positions, but if Nicky Power (or any one with a 'rep' for that matter) is telling me he has AA or KK then in most situations I'm ruling out those hands. I mean the speech play was as good as a conventional bid in bridge and surely you have to discount that as well. Or does that just apply to the little fish like me

(Then again Nicky is such a rock )

ianmc38

Unless Nicky showed me QQ/KK/AA i'd have called this.

Culchie

nicnicnic wrote:

I

As for being a rock, yep definetly I love being a rock, anybody who has ever played with me will verify this.

It was a compliment, it also should have been spelt with asterixes ... *rock*

You're a good player with a good image of being a *rock*. You could pretty much move in with any two cards and most players would fold their JJ as per this scenario.
This is how alot of *rocks* can collect alot of chips, and considering the shortstack was All-In and was smooth called, it would give you absolutely massive value with any two cards, if you could get Connie to fold via a squeeze play.

This is information a good player like Connie would/should process as well.

Are you capable of such a move? I presume so.

Now fair enough Connie got it wrong, you were holding KK .... but I can understand 100% why the call was made, and considering the chip stack situation would not consider this a bad call at all.

Unlucky though Nic.:(

nicnicnic

Culchie wrote:

It was a compliment, it also should have been spelt with asterixes ... *rock*

Reply was posted with an amusement factor. I've been called lots of things at the tables but this is trhe first time I've been a rock and I'm quite enjoying it. Diddnt mean to be short with you


Also for Tom, man you really over played 99 in the cash game in jury's, two raiser into you(with a rock like me making the second one), I'll put it down to fatigue:rolleyes:

califano

Dont get too cocky. Otherwise you might get 'banned from poker' again:p

spectre

Culchie wrote:

This is how alot of *rocks* can collect alot of chips, and considering the shortstack was All-In and was smooth called, it would give you absolutely massive value with any two cards, if you could get Connie to fold via a squeeze play.

This sounds ridiculous to me. The shortstack is all-in, you can't make a squeeze play with any two here - you can't make the shortstack fold.

Culchie

Either I've read the post wrong or you have.

Connie flat called a shortstack with JJ, and then Nic moved in with KK .... is that not the situation?



Edit ... You have read it wrong.

spectre

Culchie wrote:

Connie flat called a shortstack with JJ, and then Nic moved in with KK .... is that not the situation?

I'm not disputing that this was how it happened. I'm merely commenting on the fact that you said "any two cards"

In this case the raiser is all-in so you can't bluff here by coming over the top with "any two". Sure you may get Connie to fold and have nice dead money in the pot, but you still have to beat the shortstack.

JustMac

Culchie wrote:

This is how alot of *rocks* can collect alot of chips, and considering the shortstack was All-In and was smooth called, it would give you absolutely massive value with any two cards, if you could get Connie to fold via a squeeze play.

No, I think spectre is right there. As the shortstack is all in Nicky cant make a squeeze play. (And also the shortstack acts before Connie.) For the squeeze play Nicky would have to be raising to get Connie to fold a better hand because he fears someone reraising after him. Clear as mud.

Culchie

spectre wrote:

I'm not disputing that this was how it happened. I'm merely commenting on the fact that you said "any two cards"

In this case the raiser is all-in so you can't bluff here by coming over the top with "any two". Sure you may get Connie to fold and have nice dead money in the pot, but you still have to beat the shortstack.

Yes .... but he can collect an extra 5K in dead money chips, and description of All-In is less than threatening.

So even if you gave credit to All In villan of AK, an underpair is 50/50 (evens) ... undercards is 40/60 ..... but the pot would is paying close to 5/2 .... if you get Connie to fold.

Culchie

JustMac wrote:

No, I think spectre is right there. As the shortstack is all in Nicky cant make a squeeze play. (And also the shortstack acts before Connie.) For the squeeze play Nicky would have to be raising to get Connie to fold a better hand because he fears someone reraising after him. Clear as mud.

My use of the term Squeeze play is probably incorrect ..... my reading of the move remains.... if he can get Connie to fold ...he's getting incredible value.

spectre

Culchie wrote:

Yes .... but he can collect an extra 5K in dead money chips, and description of All-In is less than threatening.

So even if you gave credit to All In villan of AK, an underpair is 50/50 (evens) ... undercards is 40/60 ..... but the pot would is paying close to 5/2 .... if you get Connie to fold.

Yes I see what you're saying. It would be interesting to see some figures showing your winning/losing percentages of "any two" Vs A7 or better (villains range according to Connie). I'm starting to believe this to be profitable, that is of course assuming you can make Connie fold. Very interesting indeed.

Culchie

This is one of the more interesting hands lately.

connie147

Ollieboy wrote:

Firstly, why flat call, you should have been pushing to force out any AQ hands and even AK hands, in that way the only person going to call is AA/KK, but I guess thats why you limp. Now Nicky pushes and he's telling you that he has AA/KK/AK, but you decide to call because of pot odds! If you want to play with odds and get lucky, close your eyes and pick a horse, but you knew when he pushs you were behind and everything else you say is just trying to justify the call. You only had 4.6k invest and could have easily got away from the hands, but maybe you thought Nicky was at it?

I think its a poor call and you got reward, but Nicky should have been happy with your call as he got the chance to triple up, as all he had to avoid was 5 outs.

But when he push, you must have known you were behind.

Its a fold for me and keep the additional 8k for another call later, but you got lucky.

Ollie,I've not been trying to justify the call I made,I've given the reasons I made the call.Theres no doubt the size of the chipstack I had did have a huge bearing on the decision I made.Then I posted all the hand details so that I could get the opinions of the regular boards posters to see if they agreed with my thinking/decision and if it was different to mine then I'd take that on board.Also,if nicky had QQ,KK or AA,I was behind but if he had A-K Id certainly be happy to take him on in that situation.

Ollieboy

connie147 wrote:

Ollie,I've not been trying to justify the call I made,I've given the reasons I made the call.Theres no doubt the size of the chipstack I had did have a huge bearing on the decision I made.Then I posted all the hand details so that I could get the opinions of the regular boards posters to see if they agreed with my thinking/decision and if it was different to mine then I'd take that on board.Also,if nicky had QQ,KK or AA,I was behind but if he had A-K Id certainly be happy to take him on in that situation.

Hi Connie, I've no problem with why you made the call, but if your honest with yourself, you must have know you were behind. Thats my point about odds and I'm sorry if Hector doesn't understand it, but he's a cash player and in a cash game I would call very quickly.

If you had laydown this hand and no J had hit the board, you would have been delight with you laydown, thats the point here for me, you were looking for 2 cards in the deck and in that case a far bigger underdog than 4/1. I think a laydown here would have been a very good player. But you called, took the chance and got reward. And I do realise your stack size and determine your call and who you were calling against.

In the end, a laydown would have been a great play and hitting the 3rd jack, makes it a great play. So thank the pokergods. Remind me to laydown KK to you next time do.lol

connie147

I have thanked the pokergods ollie,I just hope the angel they sent stays sitting on my shoulder for another while.

fixer

an article in card player wth some maths of JJ

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=15382&m_id=65587

Hectorjelly

Ollieboy wrote:

Thats my point about odds and I'm sorry if Hector doesn't understand it, but he's a cash player and in a cash game I would call very quickly.

Im not a cash game player or a tournament player - I play poker - and I understand it a lot better than you based on this thread. You actually have no clue do you - see below

Ollieboy wrote:

you were looking for 2 cards in the deck and in that case a far bigger underdog than 4/1.

lol

Hectorjelly

Every post you have made ollyboy is demented. Firstly you say you would call this in a cash game - but whats important here is are you always going to be up against an overpair. If the answer is yes then its a bad call, no matter what type of poker you are playing. Why is it a bad call? Because you are not being offered the odds to draw out on an overpair. (You might want to look those up since you seem abit confused as to what they are).

Secondly you say "If you want to play with odds and get lucky, close your eyes and pick a horse",

A person who is playing by the odds, is by definition not trying to get lucky. They are making decisons based on what is going be the most profitable outcome. A player who knows the right decision, but choses otherwise is going to be the one better of betting on horses.

Then you say, "but you knew when he pushs you were behind and everything else you say is just trying to justify the call. "

What you seemed to have somehow missed, is that he WASNT sure he was behind, he thought that nicnic could of had AK, in which case JJ is ahead. I dont see how you can have missed this subtle but important point.

Culchie

fixer wrote:

an article in card player wth some maths of JJ

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=15382&m_id=65587

Excellent Article ... makes the call against our 'rock' look a pretty legitimate play, even based on a very small bluff %