The cold just goes on and on and on ?

Present indications suggest the Atlantic aint going to break through at the weekend at all with the jet too far south and low pressure systems at the weekend thinking of heading to France.

Look North and East for your weather for at least another week, seems to be the theme for now.


Discuss!

Gordon

Have you guys had snow there yet? My parents in Scotland had a foot so I was hoping you'd get some.

ninebeanrows

Yes the outlook is pretty depressing really!

I really want spring sun now!

I can believe were going back to 3/4c maxima on Tuesday and Wednesday:eek:

lucernarian

Lol, that's the end of my other thread. I've had a look at the GFS charts for some of the week and it seems that Tuesday has a risk of snow showers for the east coast. There is a northeasterly breeze, pressure is low enough for showers and 850 hPa temperatures will be around -8 or -9 degrees in northern and eastern areas.

ninebeanrows

Englands CET is 3c below average to March 18th

And things really look like staying average or below until the end..

Could be a record breakingly cold March;)

Gonzo

at this stage im really fed up of the freezing cold, its miserable coz theres little to no snow risk yet its just about cold enough for snow and I only enjoy cold weather if theres lots of snow around. St Patricks Day Itself I was out all day and the cold cut right through me it was horrible, im really looking forward to seeing temperatures push back towards the high teens.low twenties with pleasant spring/summer sunshine.

Villain

Not sure if anyone on here heard the guy on Matt Coopers last word back in Febuary when we had some snow but he predicted we would have snow again on the 3rd of April. He uses the moon to make predcitions, apparently he had predicted the snow event here in Febuary previously.

Well anyway I have just been looking at models and found the chart below, now I know this is at the very end of FI but it will be interesting to see if hes right. The models at the moment look like they want to extend Winter and then go straight to Summer.

Wrap up well people.

ninebeanrows

The 3rd of April is a great date:D

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

The 3rd of April is a great date:D

Significant snowfall for most of us is becoming more likely next weekend due to the orientation of a low to our south. Northern and Eastern parts m ost at risk:D

Scubadevils

Its quite amazing really that its happening at this stage, if only it were 8 weeks ago! I'm with gonzo though in that I'm sick of the cold now - if there is no hope of snow I'd really like for it to warm up. I know we had frequent snow showers on Thursday but I can't be bothered with that unless it sticks.

So next weekend looks good?

ninebeanrows

Snow???

I dont think so........

Really i cant see anything remostley SNOWY in the charts just cool/cold;)

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png ECM is kinda goin the same direction now. Remember cold v mild battles are usually tempered in the models shortly before they happen. i.e North Britians snow event. Just one to watch,thats all;)

darkman2

12z is brilliant

lucernarian

What is good about the 12Z run? And is Weathercheck using reverse psychology?

ninebeanrows

Well i was actually being serious but then i look again at the 12z

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7210.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7810.png

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn724.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn784.png

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7217.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7817.png

And i smell snow for Leinster:eek:

ninebeanrows

Yes if those syntoptics were to come off it would be SNOW:eek:

That would be crazy!

Snow on March 23rd

ninebeanrows

Even some flurries for the east on Tuesday

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Snowbie

Rememeber lads that Returning maritime air wrapped in the circulation,so with the charts it with have the influence of mid atlantic air which aint good enough for a snow event,unless the a cold pool hits the exact same time over our heads,precise timing is required here for this to happen,like the event that hit Britain last weekend.One to watch i suppose:D

Snowbie

hmmmm, looks interesting,but a long way off

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

Snowbie

This is from net weather



The week ahead
After a gloomy period of weather for much of the country, the sun is now starting to make a welcome appearance. The one pay off for clearer skies though, will be the return of some quite hard night frosts, particularly from Tuesday. With an ever strengthening March sun though, a more pleasant feel to the days is likely.

For the time being at least the UK's weather is 'blocked', meaning high pressure is dominating stopping low pressure systems from approaching and drawing milder air across the country. This weekend the source of air affecting the country hasn't been from a particularly cold source, but through the early part of the week arctic based air will stream south, bringing with it a drop in temperature and the threat of snow showers for the northern half of scotland and perhaps also Northeast England.

One feature which will need watching is an area of low pressure which is forecast to form South of Iceland and move East from Tuesday into Wednesday, this could well bring the threat of persistant heavy snow for the North of Scotland and the Northern Isles.

Then later in the week, another battle of the weather systems could be on the cards - milder, damper air will try to approach from the Southwest - as it hits the cold northerly flow of air which will be affecting the UK at that time, we could see a spell of snow in many places. A lot of uncertainty over this at the current time though, so stay tuned for updates.

Are ye trying to say lads that todays country file forecast was a waste of bandwidth?

Ensembles anyone?

darkman2

There are 5 very cold ensemble runs:D www2.wetter3.de

darkman2

UKMO much better this evening:D

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

Are ye trying to say lads that todays country file forecast was a waste of bandwidth?

Ensembles anyone?

I didnt see the bbc file forecast,i looked at our own on rte with Ev,she said the atlantic would not influence our weather like it was meant by this Thursday.The jet is remaining South for the time being,Cold persisting for now,but if that LP comes close on thursday just to the south it might get interesting if the NE winds remains potent.This will be our most significant chance of Snow to date.It will also keep the maritime air out of the equation,again for now.It is another waiting game,lets hope by Wedensday we hold onto the NE or N wind and definitley it will undercut this moist air from the Atlantic and yes we will have our Snow event,for once i am confident this will happen,but Wedensday is the key day.It looks good presently.:D

ninebeanrows

lads its late March.. any snow will struggle to ly in the best conditions..

And no im not being negative just realistic:)

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

lads its late March.. any snow will struggle to ly in the best conditions..

And no im not being negative just realistic:)

Very true WC,but we have not got a spell of persistant snow yet,and we may get a first one yet.We will have to rely on the temps being low first,but if you think of a northerly by tuesday into wedensday,which should lower the ground aswell as air temps,dp will be low too.Maybe the mtns will be most at risk but i have seen this before in the past and it has paid off.It is the same scenario as uk experienced last week and their was snow on the beach in blackpool and that was an easterly feed,we will have a N NNE feed upon us,so for the time being it looks good,but as i said before WEDENSDAY we will know if this will keep up.

Danno

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Laois&day=3

9.4cm of snow PLEASE!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Waterford&day=3

12.0cm (1 foot) :eek:

ninebeanrows

Danno wrote:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Laois&day=3

9.4cm of snow PLEASE!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Waterford&day=3

12.0cm (1 foot) :eek:

ehhhhh 30cm = 12 inches = 1 foot;)

Snowbie

See lads even metcheck is agreeing with me,my confidence is high for this event for this coming week but we shall wait and see:D

Danno

Weathercheck wrote:

ehhhhh 30cm = 12 inches = 1 foot;)

Well spotted!

silverski

Only rain forecast for Wicklow.:(

darkman2

ECM is great tonight. Sub -8 at 144hrs and easterlies at 120:D

120 snow probable on Northern flank

144 isotherm:D

darkman2

18z brings snow to Ireland and Northern England post 120 and then brings a right dumping for Ireland, Wales and N England at 150.

Danno

How much of a "dumping" are we looking at then?

SpitfireIV

From Met Eireann:

"3 Day Outlook:
Mostly dry and very cold on Monday night with a widespread frost. Tuesday and Wednesday will be largely dry with bright spells each day. There is a chance of a few light showers, however. Winds will be light to moderate, mainly easterly. The nights will be cold and frosty. After a dry start on Thursday, some wet and very windy weather will spread from the south."

Wet and windy? What sort of wet? Rain ....or snow

I noticed on the 6-1 weather Evelyn didnt go into any great detail about what was coming and said that there was still uncertainty about the end of the week.

Snowbie

Its depending on how the jet is how north or south it will be by thursday
,the futher south of Ireland the better the chance for snow,closer to ireland or north it will be rain

Villain

Just watching Ireland AM on TV3 and its snowing in the background wherever they are filiming the garden section???

Villain

ROFL, ok as I said above it was snowing in the garden this morning that Ireland AM were filming in. Now 5 minutes after the gardening piece was finished they went back to the same garden to get the weather forecast and guess what he says "we will see some light rain showers this morning".

Eh look behind you those white flakes are snow not rain, seriously like WTF???

silverski

I was watching Ireland AM broadcasting from Bray, Just beside our house. And they seem to prerecord some of those outside broadcasts..

That Gardening one this morning must have been done on Thursday.

Villain

I thought that might have been it too but the weather was from the same garden??

darkman2

6z is amazing. Loads of snow for most. Thursday into Friday should see snow for many of us. Accumulations are likely too. However on the East coast sleet is likely to be in there too so more marginal here. Plenty of attempts at the breakdown on this run giving literally bucketloads of snow:D

Wibbler

darkman2 wrote:

6z is amazing. Loads of snow for most. Thursday into Friday should see snow for many of us. Accumulations are likely too. However on the East coast sleet is likely to be in there too so more marginal here. Plenty of attempts at the breakdown on this run giving literally bucketloads of snow:D

I'll believe it when I see it, Darkman. :rolleyes:

This is my first full winter on this board. I disovered it just prior to last Feb's event. I don't know what previous winters have been like for ramping but this one has been some rollercoaster.

I wonder if I'd not discovered this board, would this winter have stood out.

Well, the temp today here didnt even reach 6c for a max,its currently 5.6c so it might be 3.6c in a day or two.
You would want the DP to go down to -2c or more before a rain band would become a snow band in that sort of temperature profile.
I'm doubtfull except on high ground.

SpitfireIV

Darkman2, if this event comes off we'll have to call it after you "The Darkman Snow Event" you seem to be fierce determined about this one, hope its pays off now.


http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Carlow&day=6

Me likey!!

Those met check forecasts are rubbish by the way.
I dont know why they bother doing them...

SpitfireIV

But......it said............:( .......snow? :rolleyes:

darkman2

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

But......it said............:( .......snow? :rolleyes:

Hi CB, I hope it comes off. 12z control run is not good really. Plenty of time yet though;)

It said snow because each mcheck forecast is entirely based on one GFS run.
It changes with the GFS runs.

So basically you are reading a 5day forecast based on FI

darkman2

UKMO is out and far too mild for snow:rolleyes:

lucernarian

So how are things shaping up for this event? Metcheck looks insane for Friday, only 4 days away. What is so incorrect about Metcheck, Earthman?:D













Please don't take my hope away...:)

yeah I saw the UKMO

As regards metcheck

It's simple every run is different and not to be trusted 6 days in advance of the time its out

Ergo metcheck is not to be trusted.

It's the same as you saying the 06z is good for snow here but when metcheck is updated to reflect the 12z, it will have temps of 6 or 8c and rain in carlow next w/end

So what use is that type of computer generated forecast?

Answer-No use whatsoever.

Proper forecasts need to be tweeked by human input to be honest with you.