Snow on paddys day?!

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 4:32pm #1

Hi everyone. There is now support for a snow event across the Southern half of the country during Thursday. Sleet probable on coasts. However inland accumlations may be on the cards:D

This is only 48hrs away. The precip would be of snow upon hitting the east coast 6 Thursday morning. Watch this space:)

14-03-2006 4:49pm

Crazy that its 48hrs away

BTW Darkman,I usually knock 1 to 2 degrees off those GFS temps especially in an Easterly.

Dewpoints are the key

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 4:55pm

Can only see snow to the north and east of that precip.

Dew points are only below freezing for the east coast and north.

But yes very interesting places like Leinster and south Ulster may get a few flakes:)

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 5:00pm

Lets hope it shows up on more runs because i "think" it would fall as snow..

All variables just about in place;)

14-03-2006 5:02pm

GFS dewpoints are ok and minus near the East coast but further south, it could be an entirely hill event.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4810.png

Inland a few miles (4 or 5 only) and a bit of height and probably all snow.
I wouldnt rule out snow on the coast either but I'd expect it to be wet and only slushing the grass rather than crunching under the feet.
In that type of coastal snow,it could snow moderately for a couple of hours and look good falling but only deliver a slushy covering away from hills.
A slushy covering that would go quickly when the sun got out.

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:03pm

Earthman wrote:

Crazy that its 48hrs away

BTW Darkman,I usually knock 1 to 2 degrees off those GFS temps especially in an Easterly.

Dewpoints are the key

The 2C in the midlands all day suggests accumulation. Thats a massive drop in temps from the 6z. A trend perhaps;)

14-03-2006 5:04pm

darkman2 wrote:

The 2C in the midlands all day suggests accumulation. Thats a massive drop in temps from the 6z. A trend perhaps;)

If we are to start beieving the GFS trends, then we'll say goodnight to the snow in the East after monday as it goes to say how you doin' to sligo and Donegal...

14-03-2006 5:09pm

Any comment on the rise in 850 temps on saturday and sunday and the related 2m temps and the effect on snow cover?

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:10pm

Earthman wrote:

If we are to start beieving the GFS trends, then we'll say goodnight to the snow in the East after monday as it goes to say how you doin' to sligo and Donegal...

Thats a good point, im still thinking the GFS hasnt got that nailed yet. Its only one run so obviously we need others to agree. Nice to see thoguh at such short notice:)

Villain · 14-03-2006 5:11pm

Darkman2 if that comes off what kind of ammounts would we see?

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 5:16pm

we could be talking 4-6cm's of snow with that:)

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:16pm

irish1 wrote:

Darkman2 if that comes off what kind of ammounts would we see?

Not much really 2 - 5cm maybe. But more on hills. It will in all probability fall as sleet along the East coast (assuming it happens of course). It may not happen though. Precip could be an outlier for Dublin in the Ensembles. Hopefully not though:)

14-03-2006 5:16pm

darkman2 wrote:

Thats a good point, im still thinking the GFS hasnt got that nailed yet. Its only one run so obviously we need others to agree. Nice to see thoguh at such short notice:)

I think I'd kind of thrust the GFS at 48 hrs notice.
From reading the US NWS discussions, they use a mix of all to reach a forecast there using phrases like,I think one NWP has over cooked the temps on that so I'll go for this scenario and this other NWP has been more consistant etc.

However, they are not afraid to completely chane their forecasts within 24hrs as I found out the last time I was there.

Point being this wouldnt be a nowcast scenario in january or early february,it would be a dead cert with slight variations.

Currently its a now cast.

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 5:18pm

Although in and around Dublin i'd only expect it to ly on car, grass etc
and only limited amounts on tarmac;)

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:20pm

Earthman wrote:

I think I'd kind of thrust the GFS at 48 hrs notice.
From reading the US NWS discussions, they use a mix of all to reach a forecast there using phrases like,I think one NWP has over cooked the temps on that so I'll go for this scenario and this other NWP has been more consistant etc.

However, they are not afraid to completely chane their forecasts within 24hrs as I found out the last time I was there.

Point being this wouldnt be a nowcast scenario in january or early february,it would be a dead cert with slight variations.

Currently its a now cast.

Im confused, whats your view on this:

6 hrs of snow maybe.

14-03-2006 5:21pm

darkman2 wrote:

Not much really 2 - 5cm maybe. But more on hills. It will in all probability fall as sleet along the East coast (assuming it happens of course). It may not happen though. Precip could be an outlier for Dublin in the Ensembles. Hopefully not though:)

Using local knowledge to some degree In Tullow or Hacketstown in theory ,Irish1 is probably 20 to 30 miles inland and to the west of the southern edge of the wicklow mts and also has a bit of high ground around him too so It should be an all snow event there with a possible 2 or 3 inches.Maybe more,maybe less but settling yes it should do.

That said as its a now cast it all depends on where the precip develops(if it develops and Glasnevin thinks it will) and goes

14-03-2006 5:23pm

darkman2 wrote:

Im confused, whats your view on this:

6 hrs of snow maybe.

I'd have thought that only for the fact that one of those charts was posted for the friday 2 weeks ago event and what did we all get a light temporary covering for some and nothing for most.

14-03-2006 5:26pm

Fascinating though if I'm reading it correctly(I'm not too familiar with those) but it shows snow on the coast turning to rain as it heads south westwards.
Ironic that scenario as it progs snow for the coast and rain for inland.

Looks to me to be a very technical interpretation of GFS 850 temps.
Local knowledge goes into forecasts though.

lucernarian · 14-03-2006 5:27pm

Earthman wrote:

nland a few miles (4 or 5 only) and a bit of height and probably all snow.
I wouldnt rule out snow on the coast either but I'd expect it to be wet and only slushing the grass rather than crunching under the feet.
In that type of coastal snow,it could snow moderately for a couple of hours and look good falling but only deliver a slushy covering away from hills.
A slushy covering that would go quickly when the sun got out.

Living in south Louth, 5 miles from the coast and on a reasonable elevation, this is music to my ears:p

I didn't think that there was any chance of organised precipitation but after my reading of GFS for Thursday morning, it seems that our possible feature is based on a proper front as opposed to a small trough.

I still don't expect to see more than a dusting from that here though, as the precipitation is too far south. Also, the ground may be or may become too wet for snow to settle unless it were heavier.

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:29pm

Earthman wrote:

I'd have thought that only for the fact that one of those charts was posted for the friday 2 weeks ago event and what did we all get a light temporary covering for some and nothing for most.

Yes however we are on the windward coast this time. -8 - -10 isotherm coincides with its arrival (convienient) and dewpoints probrably below zero. It is still marginal thoguh. These unforseen things always are. We should see a flake or two I think;)

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:36pm

Guess what, ensembles are in and................there should be more precip in Dublin:D In fact the control is at the lower end of precip for Thursday;)

12 Thursday looks good when you consider there could/should be more precip.

14-03-2006 5:42pm

Looked at the DP's on NW there darkman and they seem to be above zero on this run.
Thats not just borderline,it's thin ice literally (or no ice at all)

I'd expect that to be out a bit though,they probably should be below zero.
You would need a -2 there tbh or at least a between -1 and -2c

That said,they have the snow risk ramped up to 90 or 95% (did Steve draw them up

)

Villain · 14-03-2006 5:43pm

Earthman wrote:

Using local knowledge to some degree In Tullow or Hacketstown in theory ,Irish1 is probably 20 to 30 miles inland and to the west of the southern edge of the wicklow mts and also has a bit of high ground around him too so It should be an all snow event there with a possible 2 or 3 inches.Maybe more,maybe less but settling yes it should do.

That said as its a now cast it all depends on where the precip develops(if it develops and Glasnevin thinks it will) and goes

Cheers for that Earthman, I hope it comes off and I can get some nice snow photos, might have to visit the relatives in Knockananna

14-03-2006 5:45pm

darkman2 wrote:

Guess what, ensembles are in and................there should be more precip in Dublin:D In fact the control is at the lower end of precip for Thursday;)

Well unfortunately according to that though the precip should be rain on saturday and sunday...
Now thats where we say :rolleyes: to the GFS given what the ECM says.

I'm gone now for a while but do post up the ECM later.

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 5:49pm

Earthman wrote:

Well unfortunately according to that though the precip should be rain on saturday and sunday...
Now thats where we say :rolleyes: to the GFS given what the ECM says.

I'm gone now for a while but do post up the ECM later.

Eh there is no precip Saturday and Sunday;) Sure if they are good I will;)

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 5:59pm

The ensemblesa are in and show precip:D

A nice liggle amount too:D

14-03-2006 6:03pm

darkman2 wrote:

Eh there is no precip Saturday and Sunday;) Sure if they are good I will;)

Lol How do you know theres going to be none?

I know this might get up your goat sometimes(but it shouldnt) but what you have said is a perfect example of quoting a model when it shows something we like and dissing it when it doesnt.

Why shouldnt there be some precip with an Easterly on those days-you think it will be totally dry?
I dont think so.
I'll bow to the superior information of a now cast.

No precip at all on sat or sunday-ha ha

But anyway my central point was anything lying will have a couple of dryer days to thaw or disappear if its very little in the first place.

Lets be realistic and not carried away.

Definitely gone now-back later

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 6:07pm

2 day cold easterly then transient 2 days then 4 day cold northeaterly:D

Threat of snow starts Thursday 00z

Never expected to be ramping or thinking of snow on March 14th:D
But my mom always reminds me it snowed when my sisters were born
on March 30th:D

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 6:37pm

Earthman wrote:

Lol How do you know theres going to be none?

I know this might get up your goat sometimes(but it shouldnt) but what you have said is a perfect example of quoting a model when it shows something we like and dissing it when it doesnt.

Why shouldnt there be some precip with an Easterly on those days-you think it will be totally dry?
I dont think so.
I'll bow to the superior information of a now cast.

No precip at all on sat or sunday-ha ha

But anyway my central point was anything lying will have a couple of dryer days to thaw or disappear if its very little in the first place.

Lets be realistic and not carried away.

Definitely gone now-back later

I mean meaningful precip. It would show up on the precip scale on the ensembles. Otherwise it is not worth talking about. Luckily for Thursday it looks great. Only one run though, hopefully its still there in the morning.

P.S Incidentally id like precip on Saturday and Sunday;)

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 6:56pm

hehehe i liked those charts ALOT:D

on the Met forecast:D

snow for the east, Midlands and south on Thursday:D

Villain · 14-03-2006 7:00pm

Jees WC for once I thought you were keeping a level head and it was all going soooo well. Now that your ramping we'r doomed!!!

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 7:14pm

Did they even mention the more prolonged stuff? What did they say:rolleyes:

lucernarian · 14-03-2006 7:25pm

No mention of prolonged snow sadly. Just stuff about wintry showers, but the Eagle did say that showers would not be confined to the east coast. Was a reasonable forecast for snow lovers.

Snowbie · 14-03-2006 8:16pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

No mention of prolonged snow sadly. Just stuff about wintry showers, but the Eagle did say that showers would not be confined to the east coast. Was a reasonable forecast for snow lovers.

The Eagle said mostly on high ground,not goin to be very optimistic on this as this is a start of a new cold spell and the ground has recovered in temp since our last disapointment.
NOTHING will settle on grond below 500ft,depending on how heavy it is falling.
DP have to be low too,this should be the case but dont expect schools to close or to be snowed in from this,we might get a few flakes but it is only a trough line crossing us,not a polar low,some places on the east coast will miss a shower entirely,but fingers crossed still.

BigCon · 14-03-2006 8:27pm

I just love how unpredictable the Irish weather is.
On Paddy's Day 1999 I got sunburnt in Dublin (must have been 20C+)

.
This year it looks as if we're going to get snow the day before :rolleyes:.

p.s. Does anyone know if next Sunday will be dry?

14-03-2006 8:43pm

Weathercheck wrote:

hehehe i liked those charts ALOT:D

on the Met forecast:D

snow for the east, Midlands and south on Thursday:D

Yes we are now doomed.
Every single time WC goes for snow we dont get anything other than a wet slush slop and usually nothingness.

please note I'm assuming he has a hex on snow and he can do nothing about it

lucernarian · 14-03-2006 8:57pm

Yes he can do something about it; he could zip it until after we get the snowfall!:p

I wish that the inhabitants of East Ireland had some proper snow. I've been waiting for it for over five years now. Some people in eastern areas have been waiting even longer I believe. I hope that this time, the winds of fortune will blow from the northeast.:)

14-03-2006 9:37pm

Quiet on here

Would it be because the ECM I just saw had a Northwesterly for Tuesday...

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 9:44pm

Lets hope our 'event' is on the 18z for Thursday and lower temps:D

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 9:45pm

Earthman wrote:

Quiet on here

Would it be because the ECM I just saw had a Northwesterly for Tuesday...

ECM tonight is brilliant. Prolonged potent northerly and on Sunday sub -8 temps and a northeasterly:D

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 9:50pm

It does look their could be some snow lying come Thursday Morning

Affecting eastern coasts at first and pretty inland..

Very interesting for Thursday 6z here, i like it cause it will be during
the night/dark so temps will be low and settling may occur:D

Ironically probably the best chance of lying snow in the east all winter:eek: :rolleyes:

14-03-2006 9:56pm

Darkman2 wrote:

ECM tonight is brilliant. Prolonged potent northerly and on Sunday sub -8 temps and a northeasterly

With nothing much for Dublin or the East like the last one and with the completely sheltering element of a north west component. Great for Wales and Donegal though

So to summarise now that the ECM has followed the GFS and not the other way around and adding in a bit of the Eagles forecast tonight...

Wintry showers on thursday delivering wet snow to some in the East with a temporary covering untill the sun comes out and melts any light covering rather quickly.
Some people will only see rain or sleet or hail and no covering.
This could be a majority of people.

Showers confined to the coasts on the w/end proper where they could still be wintry especially on high ground at night.
There may be a pep up of showers everywhere on Monday but with most of the snow on high ground.
From Tuesday the East of the country dries out completely after a damp squib of an effort at snow but mostly sleet.

Then the North and north west get a real icey blast with the snow becoming increasingly common to lower levels there and the showers because of the instability in the north northwesterly becoming heavy with the odd few escaping maybe as far as Dublin as a tease.

Meanwhile Eileeen Magner is seen reporting from a Sligo and Donegal white out again in her RTÉ 4wd...

I think thats a fair assessment.

Last nights and the previous evenings banter about a north easterly which by this winters standards was always model wise firmly in FI was always never more than wishfull thinking (and people letting their heart rule their common sense/experience) or rather a pipe dream

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 9:56pm

Weathercheck wrote:

It does look their could be some snow lying come Thursday Morning

Affecting eastern coasts at first and pretty inland..

Very interesting for Thursday 6z here, i like it cause it will be during
the night/dark so temps will be low and settling may occur:D

Ironically probably the best chance of lying snow in the east all winter:eek: :rolleyes:

Low temps all day. Only reaching 2 -3 degrees on the east coast. 1 or 2 C inland;)

However you will have to be up early. 6 - 8 hours precip max:)

lucernarian · 14-03-2006 9:57pm

Do you expect six or eight hours of snow from this? I can't imagine more prolonged snow falling on Thursday morning.

14-03-2006 9:58pm

I cant either

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 10:02pm

Earthman wrote:

I cant either

You cant see it lasting 6 hours? Thats what the GFS is saying. The ensembles say that aswell. 06hrs 12hrs roughly;)

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2006 10:05pm

i for one will be happy to see some falling snow:D

And with it expected here around 5am 6z It should hopefully accumalate!

I'd be happy with 2cm's enough to roll up a few balls of snow and make a snowman:D

Like last year on March 5th or so:D

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 10:11pm

Weathercheck wrote:

i for one will be happy to see some falling snow:D

And with it expected here around 5am 6z It should hopefully accumalate!

I'd be happy with 2cm's enough to roll up a few balls of snow and make a snowman:D

Like last year on March 5th or so:D

The temps at 6am:)

14-03-2006 10:20pm

darkman2 wrote:

You cant see it lasting 6 hours? Thats what the GFS is saying. The ensembles say that aswell. 06hrs 12hrs roughly;)

Hang on a second now...

Reality check you are picking and choosing again
Cherry picking.

Practically 5 minutes ago you were saying how the GFS was rubbish at this and that it would follow the ECM into an almost never ending NE nirvana.

Now its to be trusted with its rain/snow fall predictions just because its what you want...

Large tumbler of salt for Darkman2

For what its worth,I'd expect lots of showers on thursday but not a merged prolonged spell.

darkman2 · 14-03-2006 10:23pm

18z looks quite potent:D

14-03-2006 10:23pm

Different run so not a like for like comparison.

Has it changed again,I havent seen it yet.

Has it got rid of the NW component?

Snow on paddys day?!

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