Easterly ( Bitterly cold Paddys Day )

ninebeanrows

It now looks pretty certain were going to grap hold of a bitter easterly wind (for March) and Paddys day itself looks like being and absolute shocker.
Temperatures of 3-5c ( 3/4c in Dublin ) with a bitter easterly wind and drizzley/
sleet onto the east coast:eek: :mad:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png
If only it were February/January or December:eek:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1022.png

Looks like staying pretty cold with an easterly feed off a cold continent
for much of March

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Looks like staying pretty cold with an easterly feed off a cold continent
for much of March

Much of march?
What do you base that on? Half of it is practically gone already and is next weeks cold continuing much into the far reaches of FI? ie up to april 1st?

Incidently I dont see why you shouldnt get light snow showers with that feed on march 16th should it happen.
Minus dew points.

That said pressure would be way too high for much in the way of showers.

The scandi high as is usual of late is too far south.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

Much of march?
What do you base that on? Half of it is practically gone already and is next weeks cold continuing much into the far reaches of FI? ie up to april 1st?

Yep Earthman the outlooks looks set Blocked and cold..:)

England is heading for its lowest March CET in a long time

ANd yes i expect it to remain cold up until at least March 25th:)

darkman2

ECM for 168 is amazing:eek:

darkman2

Irish met just showed the Northeasterly next Sunday Looked sweet. And remaining 'very cold'.....with wintry showers up till then. Turning even colder from those charts post Saturday They were very similar to ECM btw.

I find it gas how Eveylyn just now on the farming forecast can show a graphic with Britain completely dry next week in the Easterly and show all the atlantic rain heading into spain and portugal...

And yet the countryfile forecast on the BBC had a cold front on thursday moving westwards and several centimetres of snow in Eastern England...


At least she didnt say there might be snow on high ground at night

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I find it gas how Eveylyn just now on the farming forecast can show a graphic with Britain completely dry next week in the Easterly and show all the atlantic rain heading into spain and portugal...

And yet the countryfile forecast on the BBC had a cold front on thursday moving westwards and several centimetres of snow in Eastern England...


At least she didnt say there might be snow on high ground at night

Did you see the N/Ntheasterly on Sundays chart:eek:

Pressure on those ECM's looks just low enough to aid shower development in the Irish sea.
Next weekend could be very interesting.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Did you see the N/Ntheasterly on Sundays chart:eek:

Yup and the source aint the azores

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Yup and the source aint the azores

That looked even better then ECM:D Snow showers certain if it occured. Interesting times ahead;)

Villain

A white Paddy's weekend, that would be fun

It's very possible.
Unfortunately we have a lot of rain to deal with first in the next 72 hours

Villain

Well Scotland is very white today, talking to a mate in Dundee this morning and there is nearly a foot of snow there!!

Be interesting to watch the charts over the next few days.

darkman2

irish1 wrote:

Well Scotland is very white today, talking to a mate in Dundee this morning and there is nearly a foot of snow there!!

Be interesting to watch the charts over the next few days.

Snow cover in Northern Britian does us no harm at all if we get the northeasterly. However the GFS would want to start showing it later today:)

Indeed.
A regular poster on TWO called Nordic Mike who is located 1800ft above sea level in central Norway had a temp of -29c yesterday morning... :eek:

Now thats in the mountains there but you get the picture, a superb cold feed

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Indeed.
A regular poster on TWO called Nordic Mike who is located 1800ft above sea level in central Norway had a temp of -29c yesterday morning... :eek:

Now thats in the mountains there but you get the picture, a superb cold feed

birrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr (coldest place in Ireland!) Anyhow yes best possible source this time of year. P.S if you think ECM at 168 is good. Its ten times better at day ten!:D

ninebeanrows

I personally will not be looking forward to a horribly cold cloudy and drizzly Paddys day:o

lucernarian

If the GFS forecast for 17/03/06 is correct then I think any precipitation is more likely to fall as snow rather than rain. Sadly that "if" is a crucual one.

I think WC is being cautious and wont ramp too much as it usually jinx's things for him

darkman2

Waiting in anticipation now seeing this northeasterly on the 12z GFS:D

Danno

http://i2.tinypic.com/r935z4.jpg

North Wales.

darkman2

Now that just angers me:mad: just over 60 miles away..........errrrrrrrrrrrr.:rolleyes:

Takeshi_Kovacs

Danno wrote:

http://i2.tinypic.com/r935z4.jpg

North Wales.

Damn... right down to the waters edge... never seen the snowline extend down that far before ..

darkman2

The easterly itself isnt that bad, I have to say:)

ninebeanrows

Just about to post the exact chart darkman;)

Pressure is too high though:)

Maybe some sleety hail showers on Thursday/Friday before Milder upper air
moves in from the east.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Just about to post the exact chart darkman;)

Pressure is too high though:)

Maybe some sleety hail showers on Thursday/Friday before Milder upper air
moves in from the east.

And the hopefully the Northeasterly kicks in:D

P.S there is precip there on the precip charts.

ninebeanrows

temps are abit touch and go..

4c with a DP of 1c... it wouldnt give clean snow.. it may give hail:)

darkman2

The GFS starting to show that Northeasterly now. Early days but its starting to resemble more the ECM so a very good run:D

darkman2

Latest ECM is AMAZING:eek:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006031212!!chart.gif

darkman2

Im voting this chart of the 'winter'........if it comes off:D

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/models/ecmwf/20060312/12/images/ecm500.168.png

Snowbie

If only it were to be true,i think we are jinked in this part of Eire,cant see what we can expect by week end only cold clear weather and maybe sleet.Dont expect what uk got to be heading our way this week,just crisp and cold im afraid:mad: . But i will still cross my fingers and hope for any surprise.:(

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

If only it were to be true,i think we are jinked in this part of Eire,cant see what we can expect by week end only cold clear weather and maybe sleet.Dont expect what uk got to be heading our way this week,just crisp and cold im afraid:mad: . But i will still cross my fingers and hope for any surprise.:(

That flow WOULD bring heavy snow showers especially to the Eastern halve of the country. SSTs are at their lowest. Snow even on the coast.;) (next weekend that is)

By the way even right now the East coast is about 4 degree's colder than the bulk of the rest of the country...

ninebeanrows

yea and its ridiculuously cold, windy and wet:(

darkman2

GFS has fallen to the ECM:D

darkman2

:eek:

Being FI I wouldnt be surprised if that NNE was more of an N when it happens ie practically useless.

NNE would be absolutely perfect as would the ECM for the previous day with an E sourced out of a NNE down the North Sea

By the way, the NW snow risk chart for Dublin south to Rosslare coresponding to the chart DM2 posted above is light purple ie almost 100%

Twud be nice if that was +12hrs instead...

darkman2

The ensembles show this run has brought the northerly element in too early. However given the ECM I think we should be confident of a happy medium between the two:)

The UKMO further outlook was updated today and mentioned a Northerly.
So the Easterly will be transient with maybe a day or two of snow showers in the East but the fun quickly transfers then away from Dublin and into Ulster,Sligo ,Mayo and down the west coast again coinciding with the coldest of the polar air.

Pity really.

Oh and while we will probably have Irish sea snow showers for a while, Wales will take the heaviest of them off us and the East will stay dry as the wind swings due north.

Basically a re run of the end of february/start of march.

Danno

The "cold" air never caught the ferry yesterday...

http://www.met.ie/recentweather/yesterday.asp

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

The UKMO further outlook was updated today and mentioned a Northerly.
So the Easterly will be transient with maybe a day or two of snow showers in the East but the fun quickly transfers then away from Dublin and into Ulster,Sligo ,Mayo and down the west coast again coinciding with the coldest of the polar air.

Pity really.

Oh and while we will probably have Irish sea snow showers for a while, Wales will take the heaviest of them off us and the East will stay dry as the wind swings due north.

Basically a re run of the end of february/start of march.

I disagree Earthman. The ECM is excellent for the East and north:D

darkman2

Also snow showers (heavy) Thursday night and Friday;)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

I disagree Earthman. The ECM is excellent for the East and north:D

With me or the UKMO

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

With me or the UKMO

UKMO always goes with the ECM eventually. Tonight I reckon it will fall into line. GFS 12z is better initially but then loses its way completely to become yet another rubbish run:D

I have to ask the question why its rubbish though when it predicts an Atlantic break through and excelent when it doesnt?

Dont take this as a down beat comment-just a realistic one.
Weather will never do what you wish it to do,it will do what it likes

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I have to ask the question why its rubbish though when it predicts an Atlantic break through and excelent when it doesnt?

Dont take this as a down beat comment-just a realistic one.
Weather will never do what you wish it to do,it will do what it likes

The GFS is not good at handling Greenland blocking. The last northerly the ECM was perfect in its predictions, the GFS was not. P.S the evolution post 168 is not exactly plausible. A high ridging southeast from Greenland taking advantage of a low going west from Iberia when it should be going east?!? ECM has this nailed;)

I admire your faith,but then you want this so dont be let down if it falters after the w/end.

Why wouldnt a low travel westwards...? They often do.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I admire your faith,but then you want this so dont be let down if it falters after the w/end.

Why wouldnt a low travel westwards...? They often do.

A trough yes, a fully developed low pressure - no. The ECM, if you study it is far more plausible. P.S dont take control run at face value. I said the same thing for last nights 18z. The ensembles will make for interesting reading here:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

A trough yes, a fully developed low pressure - no. The ECM, if you study it is far more plausible. P.S dont take control run at face value. I said the same thing for last nights 18z. The ensembles will make for interesting reading here:)

I'd have to disagree with that.
I've seen tropical storms (which are fully devoloped LPs's) head East almost as far as Gibralter only to head west again.