AK - TPTK under fire

fuzzbox

10/20 6-max Party

I've raised my button maybe 3/4 times in a row. I've been fairly active preflop and then ....

Hero 5k Button - Ac Ks
Villain 2.9k SB

Preflop
Folded to hero, who opens for 70, villain calls, every1 else folds.

Flop (160)
Kh Jh 4c

Check, hero bets 127, villain makes it 304, hero thinks and calls.

Turn (770)
4s

Villain pushes for 2.5k. ... well now ??

Gholimoli

fold.your beat even if by KJ.i dont think he has much at all because of the over bet.the problem is you dont have much either .

fixer

the dangerous thought is "well, he wouldn't push with a filled-up hand, right?"

the slightly less dangerous is that he he hit the flop with a K or J, min-raised to see if you were just continuation betting (and decided you were probably flushing), so he pushed to get you off the hearts draw.

I'd call (but I am known for calling too much in these situations)

Lafortezza

Any info on Villain? is he generally ABC or LAG or bad? Does he minraise much?

It's kind of a random spot as he could have anything from AJ to KJ to 45s, without reads it's probably a fold unless you want to embrace the variance.

fuzzbox

Villain bought in short, and was pretty aggro to run his stack up.
I dont have much on him other than that. I havent really tangled with him thus far.

Gholimoli

see the problem here is if your right and his making a move you win the pot which is not that big considering the bet you have to call.if your wrong then you loose alot.im thinking his got KJ to be honest.judging by the bet it self he cant be a good player whether he has a boat or not.

ianmc38

I think the backgound of the hand might justify a call. The SB has seen you raise from the button the last 3 or 4 orbits and is probably thinking that you are at it. He needs to wake up and tell you to stop doing it, even if it is with a bag of air.

If he had a boat, trips, or 2 pair would he not be looking for some more action, rather than pushing and stealing the pot? I'm thining AhQh. Call.

karlh

raketastic split pot?

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

see the problem here is if your right and his making a move you win the pot which is not that big considering the bet you have to call.if your wrong then you loose alot.im thinking his got KJ to be honest.judging by the bet it self he cant be a good player whether he has a boat or not.

The pot is 3.3k. It costs me 2.5k to call. If I call and win, I win 3.3k. That is not small. If I call and win, then I win a lot, if I call and lose then I lose a lot.

Gholimoli

ianmc38 wrote:

I think the backgound of the hand might justify a call. The SB has seen you raise from the button the last 3 or 4 orbits and is probably thinking that you are at it. He needs to wake up and tell you to stop doing it, even if it is with a bag of air.

If he had a boat, trips, or 2 pair would he not be looking for some more action, rather than pushing and stealing the pot? I'm thining AhQh. Call.

i dont agree that TPTK on a paired board justifies a call for that amount of bet.
what if he is defending against a flush draw with something like A4.hero is no where near pot committed here. if villain has made a move here then i think he deserves to have the pot .if the bet was pot sized or something like that then yeah but for another 2K+ I would pass here.

cardshark202

I've seen a lot of players make similiar moves after turning trips, but also with just one pair on a draw heavy board. I think its a marginal decision but without more info on villian I'd lean towards folding.


EDIT: The more I think about it, the more I lean towards a call. He's is unlikely to call a raise OOP with any holding containing a four I would presume, so it would look more like AJ, AQh or at worst JJ.

Running Bing

I think the most likely hand(based on the post not knowing the player) is a flush draw with a pair of jacks. He most likely would have raised pre flop with jj or even kj knowing your probably trying to steal the blinds. The large raise on the flop is probably a semi bluff. I think you could rule out the full house as he probably wouldnt call with k4 or j4, 44 is a possibility but unlikely. he knows the 4 on the turn is probably a nothing card for you and so takes a stab at the pot and he still has the flush draw if you call. I would have prefered to be the aggresor in this hand but Id probably call.

ianmc38

cardshark202 wrote:

He's is unlikely to call a raise OOP with any holding containing a four I would presume, so it would look more like AJ, AQh or at worst JJ.

Exactly. I would imagine that he would reraise with any premium pair in the range JJ-AA because Fuzz has raised from this position the last 3 orbits.

The only holding I'd be slightly worried about here would be KJ. I don't think he'd make an overbet like that if he feared a drawing hand.

I'm still thinking AhQh.

fuzzbox

Results:

Well - when he c/red the flop, I felt that he could do it with a lot of hands, 44, KJ, any K, any hearts, maybe a big draw, so I called.

When the turn paired the 4, this was a good card for me. I figured that he wouldnt have 44 very often. I have a K- so KK is equally unlikely, and also unlikely given the preflop action. JJ is also unlikely given the preflop action, as I would expect him to reraise with that OOP, against a button raiser.

When he pushed the turn, I didnt think he would have trips or full house very often, as he would more likely want a call with that, and my hand looks kinda like a draw/one-pair hand. So I figured he would prefer me to fold, so I called, figuring that the only reasonable hand to beat me was KJ, and that I would clearly hit an Ace if he had that hand.

I called - he had JTo, he missed his 2 outer, and I won.

Tough hand I think.

ianmc38

Tough hand, but a good one for analysis as always. Wp!

Running Bing

I would have thought he had something more than middle pair with an average kicker, i guess your raising got to him:cool: its the tough decisions like this where the money is won and lost. Nice post, keep them coming.

Norwich Fan Rob

havent read replies, but its a 100% call for me.
He wont push with a 4, and given your previous raises, hes moving here with any J or weaker K.
I would be very surprised if u are behind.

Gholimoli

see my problem with these kind of decision in too tourney oriented.
even though i know he is prob ahead i keep thinking well if his wrong then he goes bust, forgetting the fact that bust means nothing in cash games.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

see my problem with these kind of decision in too tourney oriented.
even though i know he is prob ahead i keep thinking well if his wrong then he goes bust, forgetting the fact that bust means nothing in cash games.

Well losing 3k on a poker hands means a lot more than "nothing".

The decisions should be the same in both cash and tourney. In a tourney, this is normally an auto-call because usually you are not this deep.

Bandana boy

I think this is a very brave call
I know i would like to but would probably fold
Great call and well paid too
Next time sitting across from you fuzz i and rest of board are pushing our sets :-)

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Well losing 3k on a poker hands means a lot more than "nothing".

The decisions should be the same in both cash and tourney. In a tourney, this is normally an auto-call because usually you are not this deep.

i disagree that the decision is the same in cash and tourney.
as you said your self in a tourney it depends how deep you are.ive made this play a lot on good players knowing they will fold because they were deep.
in tourney you will have to consider the % of busting. in cash game you will never do this .
you can say this is an auto call in tourney if it was a rebuy and the play was made during the rebuy period. other wise its not an auto call at all. unless your to shallow stacked to let TPTK go.
the fact that there was alot of money involved here does not change things as in the over all scale of things this would be just another call.

ianmc38

Bandana boy wrote:

I think this is a very brave call
I know i would like to but would probably fold
Great call and well paid too
Next time sitting across from you fuzz i and rest of board are pushing our sets :-)

If you can't make a call for that much money at those stakes, then you are playing out of your depth.

I know at $1/$2 a push from that type of position is usually a stone cold bluff or the nuts. based on the action before this hand though, I feel the call is easier than with an unknown villain, where we may have to lean towards a fold.

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

i disagree that the decision is the same in cash and tourney.
as you said your self in a tourney it depends how deep you are.ive made this play a lot on good players knowing they will fold because they were deep.
in tourney you will have to consider the % of busting. in cash game you will never do this .
you can say this is an auto call in tourney if it was a rebuy and the play was made during the rebuy period. other wise its not an auto call at all. unless your to shallow stacked to let TPTK go.
the fact that there was alot of money involved here does not change things as in the over all scale of things this would be just another call.

So you fold here because you have a 4% of busting??? Even if you had 10 billion BBs its still a call.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

So you fold here because you have a 4% of busting??? Even if you had 10 billion BBs its still a call.

can i ask you how you came up with the 4% of busting?
you have TPTK on a board on KJ44 .how do you figure the 4% of busting?

fixer

fizz, may I ask what you were thinking on the flop, when he raised you? I can see this is where you started laying your trap, and by just calling you gave the impression of a draw, but what range of hands did you have him on here?

I am guessing that the call on the turn was fairly easy for you.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

i disagree that the decision is the same in cash and tourney.
as you said your self in a tourney it depends how deep you are.ive made this play a lot on good players knowing they will fold because they were deep.
in tourney you will have to consider the % of busting. in cash game you will never do this .
you can say this is an auto call in tourney if it was a rebuy and the play was made during the rebuy period. other wise its not an auto call at all. unless your to shallow stacked to let TPTK go.
the fact that there was alot of money involved here does not change things as in the over all scale of things this would be just another call.

We differ quite a bit on this point.

I think EV is EV and I'll take if if I can get it, in cash game or tourney.

In a tourney - you can bust, in a cash game you can lose your money ... the result is just as bad you know.

This is not a situation where tourney and cash games differ.

A place where they might differ is:

You have QhJh and call a raise. Board comes KhTh4d, and your opponent moves in.

In a cash game you tend to call this, but in a tourney, you tend to fold this.

Normally villain has AK or something like that, but without fold equity, you lay this down in a tourney somewhat more frequently, because if you call you are 55/45 at best.

The hand I played is totally different - if I am ahead, then I am a very big favourite, but if I am behind, then I am a very big underdog. Choosing correctly can make me a LOT of chips.

In the other situation (QhJh), my stack wont change much either way regardless of what decision I make.

fuzzbox

fixer wrote:

fizz, may I ask what you were thinking on the flop, when he raised you? I can see this is where you started laying your trap, and by just calling you gave the impression of a draw, but what range of hands did you have him on here?

I am guessing that the call on the turn was fairly easy for you.

I insta-called the turn, but I took some time on the flop.
I just called, because I felt he might bluff at me again on the turn and then I could just set him in, or that he might have hearts. When the turn came 4, and he pushed, I insta-called.

If I set him in there, then he only calls with better hands, and he doesnt bluff at me anymore.

.

sunzz

Great call man.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

We differ quite a bit on this point.

I think EV is EV and I'll take if if I can get it, in cash game or tourney.

In a tourney - you can bust, in a cash game you can lose your money ... the result is just as bad you know.

This is not a situation where tourney and cash games differ.

A place where they might differ is:

You have QhJh and call a raise. Board comes KhTh4d, and your opponent moves in.

In a cash game you tend to call this, but in a tourney, you tend to fold this.

Normally villain has AK or something like that, but without fold equity, you lay this down in a tourney somewhat more frequently, because if you call you are 55/45 at best.

The hand I played is totally different - if I am ahead, then I am a very big favourite, but if I am behind, then I am a very big underdog. Choosing correctly can make me a LOT of chips.

In the other situation (QhJh), my stack wont change much either way regardless of what decision I make.

in a cash game loosing a lot moeny dosent mean much at all.
i mean how much does loosing 2K really mean when your talking about all your poker hands in 2 years?how about if your talking about all your hands in 5 years?
you can see that it dosent really mean that much.the fact that the amount you had to call here was larg dosent change things.
however in tourney if you loose your bust.thats it. its finished.you have ended that tourney .
i agree that EV is EV but what exactly that EV is and the factors you have to consider to correctly calculate your EV is different in cash and tourney.
think about it this way.would it be correct to make the call you did in that game if you knew that if you lost you could never play another hand of poker?

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

in a cash game loosing a lot moeny dosent mean much at all.
i mean how much does loosing 2K really mean when your talking about all your poker hands in 2 years?how about if your talking about all your hands in 5 years?
you can see that it dosent really mean that much.the fact that the amount you had to call here was larg dosent change things.
however in tourney if you loose your bust.thats it. its finished.you have ended that tourney .
i agree that EV is EV but what exactly that EV is and the factors you have to consider to correctly calculate your EV is different in cash and tourney.
think about it this way.would it be correct to make the call you did in that game if you knew that if you lost you could never play another hand of poker?

Thats a little OTT there Gholi. If you were in a tourney and had AA preflop, and some1 moved in ahead of you, and got called, and you were told, that if you called and lost, you could never play another hand of poker .... would you play it?

Bleh - that never happens, so its pretty much a moot point.

In tourneys - the game is the same - you try to acquire chips. In this case - I had 5k, and villain had 3k. I would call in a tourney too, and then I would have 8k, and if I lost, then I would have a very playable 2k (given that blinds are 10/20).

I take EV where I can. If I get to 8k, then maybe I can break another big stack, or maybe I can steal blinds easier. Chips acquire chips.

Tourneys count on the long run also - when some1 moves in with TT and you call with AA - sometimes you lose ... about 20% of the time. 1 in 5 tourneys, you bust if you get all your money in like this. But you do it - because those other 4, well you double through, and you are ready to play.

RoundTower

I certainly wouldn't call instantly. It's hard to put him on a hand that beats you though, and based on the read I agreed with whoever said it looked like Jx of hearts.

From a theoretical point of view -- aren't you giving him implied odds to call you on the flop with something like 45s? I think I know the answer here, but interested to hear what people think.

careca

ianmc38 wrote:

If you can't make a call for that much money at those stakes, then you are playing out of your depth.

.

Thats an excellent point. I was reading this post saying, jesus thats a great call (and it is) but I would probably make the same call if the stakes were smaller and in accordance with my bankroll.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade fuzz and I do like your analysis but the amounts involved are probably clouding some of our judgements.

fuzzbox

RoundTower wrote:

I certainly wouldn't call instantly. It's hard to put him on a hand that beats you though, and based on the read I agreed with whoever said it looked like Jx of hearts.

From a theoretical point of view -- aren't you giving him implied odds to call you on the flop with something like 45s? I think I know the answer here, but interested to hear what people think.

Yep .
but he has to check/raise the flop with bottom pair no kicker and push when the board makes him trips.

How often do you think he does that?

Hectorjelly

Gholimoli wrote:

see my problem with these kind of decision in too tourney oriented.
even though i know he is prob ahead i keep thinking well if his wrong then he goes bust, forgetting the fact that bust means nothing in cash games.

This is insane on so many levels.

I wish I got up early enough to take part in these discussions

Hectorjelly

careca wrote:

I'm not trying to rain on your parade fuzz and I do like your analysis but the amounts involved are probably clouding some of our judgements.

Normally top pair top kicker should not be a through ticket for your stack of 150+ bbs, this would normally be a fold but the opponents actions are suspicous and Fuzz had been playing aggro up to this point. If either of those two werent true its a pretty simple fold.

RoundTower

Hectorjelly wrote:

This is insane on so many levels.

I wish I got up early enough to take part in these discussions

Stay up later.

RoundTower

fuzzbox wrote:

Yep .
but he has to check/raise the flop with bottom pair no kicker and push when the board makes him trips.

How often do you think he does that?

Actually i thought the answer was no. Because sometimes he will run into you having JJ or KK here.

I might check raise you on this flop with bottom pair no kicker. Only if I thought you had a wide range and would bet most of the time when checked to, and would often fold a better hand. This sounds exactly like the situation in the actual hand.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Thats a little OTT there Gholi. If you were in a tourney and had AA preflop, and some1 moved in ahead of you, and got called, and you were told, that if you called and lost, you could never play another hand of poker .... would you play it?

Bleh - that never happens, so its pretty much a moot point.

In tourneys - the game is the same - you try to acquire chips. In this case - I had 5k, and villain had 3k. I would call in a tourney too, and then I would have 8k, and if I lost, then I would have a very playable 2k (given that blinds are 10/20).

I take EV where I can. If I get to 8k, then maybe I can break another big stack, or maybe I can steal blinds easier. Chips acquire chips.

Tourneys count on the long run also - when some1 moves in with TT and you call with AA - sometimes you lose ... about 20% of the time. 1 in 5 tourneys, you bust if you get all your money in like this. But you do it - because those other 4, well you double through, and you are ready to play.

Your examples are not contradicting what im saying.
You said you had 5K and villain had 3K.if you loose you will have 2K which is very playable with blinds 10/20.i agree with the call in this situation.
However if you had 5K and villain had about the same and blinds being the same i would not call. it all depends how % you think your ahead.
About the AA example i know that its the best possible edge i could have so it would be correct to call.
You said it your self, you are either miles ahead or miles behind.
Either being the operative word. Having 8K in stack will not guarantied you the win or even finishing in the money but loosing the hand would guarantee that you’re out.
Again your TT v AA example i would call knowing that 20% i could loos. But the reason i call is because its the best possible edge i could hope for.
the TPTK in this situation is far from the best possible edge you could hope for to call for all your stack.

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

Your examples are not contradicting what im saying.
You said you had 5K and villain had 3K.if you loose you will have 2K which is very playable with blinds 10/20.i agree with the call in this situation.
However if you had 5K and villain had about the same and blinds being the same i would not call. it all depends how % you think your ahead.
About the AA example i know that its the best possible edge i could have so it would be correct to call.
You said it your self, you are either miles ahead or miles behind.
Either being the operative word. Having 8K in stack will not guarantied you the win or even finishing in the money but loosing the hand would guarantee that you’re out.
Again your TT v AA example i would call knowing that 20% i could loos. But the reason i call is because its the best possible edge i could hope for.
the TPTK in this situation is far from the best possible edge you could hope for to call for all your stack.

How good do you think you are? I mean, if you wait to get your money in as an 80% favourite every time you're going to be waiting an awful long time.

RoundTower

Gholimoli wrote:

if you loose you will have 2K which is very playable with blinds 10/20.i agree with the call in this situation.

In a tourney there are a few rare situations where you should think like this. Probably you are applying this kind of thinking way too much.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

How good do you think you are? I mean, if you wait to get your money in as an 80% favourite every time you're going to be waiting an awful long time.

when did i ever say wait till you are 80% fav.
are you reading the posts at all or making a comment for the sake of it as usual.
you said yo uhave 4% chance of loosing.can you tell me how you cam up with that or was this yet another one of your comments.
can you please explian how you have 4% of loosing when your holding AK
on a KJ44 board?

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

when did i ever say wait till you are 80% fav.
are you reading the posts at all or making a comment for the sake of it as usual.
you said yo uhave 4% chance of loosing.can you tell me how you cam up with that or was this yet another one of your comments.
can you please explian how you have 4% of loosing when your holding AK
on a KJ44 board?

Well when your opponent has 2 outs you he/she generally has about a 4% chance of winning the pot. (E.g. AK v TJ on a KJ44 board).

So how big an edge do you wait for then?

fuzzbox

Gholi -

In the AA example - your opponents have TT and 88 respectively. You have a 40% chance of busting out, and a 60% chance of tripling up. Do you still play?

I really think you are believing that there is a huge difference in tourney/cash play. I dont think there is. When deep, and playing with bad players, then dont take 50/50 shots, but take the other +EV. In this case, I believed that I was +EV. If that is the case, then I should call, and I should call in a tourney also. If I did not believe that, then I should fold (in both games).

They are the same game - except you can be less inclinded to gamble with marginal stuff early, but then later when the blinds get big, you are more inclined to gamble.

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

In a tourney there are a few rare situations where you should think like this. Probably you are applying this kind of thinking way too much.

i dont understand what kind of thinking you mean here.
you are saying this is a auto call in a tourney and i still have to disagree.
your saying villian does not have the 4 or JJ or KK or AA because his play does not match with thoes holdings.
what im saying is unless your too shallow stacked or you have the option to rebuy then its not worth busting out to find out .
i read this example some where .
suppose its the start of the WSOP.
you have KK on the button.
UTG limps.
UTG+1 limps.
UTG+2 limps.
UTG+3 limps.
UTG+4 limps.
and its your turn and you raise .
every one folds back to UTG+4 who pushes all in.
will you call? i think its very stupid to call.
you know nothing about the player and even though the play suggests that he dosent have AA but you dont know for sure.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

Well when your opponent has 2 outs you he/she generally has about a 4% chance of winning the pot. (E.g. AK v TJ on a KJ44 board).

So how big an edge do you wait for then?

and how do you know villain has 2 outs here?

handsfree

good call. the amount of money involved shouldn't affect your decision making. the right decision will always be the same but will the price of it influence your capacity to make it.

fixer

fuzzbox wrote:

I insta-called the turn, but I took some time on the flop.
I just called, because I felt he might bluff at me again on the turn and then I could just set him in, or that he might have hearts. When the turn came 4, and he pushed, I insta-called.

If I set him in there, then he only calls with better hands, and he doesnt bluff at me anymore.

.

okay, that jives with my expectations of your read. you knew you were ahead, and only had hearts or a J on the turn/river to worry about.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Gholi -

In the AA example - your opponents have TT and 88 respectively. You have a 40% chance of busting out, and a 60% chance of tripling up. Do you still play?

I really think you are believing that there is a huge difference in tourney/cash play. I dont think there is. When deep, and playing with bad players, then dont take 50/50 shots, but take the other +EV. In this case, I believed that I was +EV. If that is the case, then I should call, and I should call in a tourney also. If I did not believe that, then I should fold (in both games).

They are the same game - except you can be less inclinded to gamble with marginal stuff early, but then later when the blinds get big, you are more inclined to gamble.

Fuzz,
thats the difference between tourney and cash.
you cant just take a hand out of context and say you have AA v TT v 88 will ou call?
in a cash game all you need to know is your 60% to win here .that’s it. that will make a call mandatory.
in a tourney its not like that.
if it was a satellite with 5 left and 4 getting paid and i was short stacked and the hand would bust either the TT or 88 then i would fold.
i know this not a typical example but im trying to say that you cant give a hand out of context in a tourney and say would you call.

fuzzbox

fixer wrote:

okay, that jives with my expectations of your read. you knew you were ahead, and only had hearts or a J on the turn/river to worry about.

I think that "jives" is an underused word.

Well said

fixer

fuzzbox wrote:

I think that "jives" is an underused word.

Well said

I'm not from 'round here, I only speak American.

Bp!

Dunno if ye've seen this, its a bit torrent of ZeeJustin's play towards the end of the $500,000 GTD on Stars, (some no doubt addoring fan edits toegther some of his plays...daring and hyper aggresive ones) to win him $130,000 (which is no longer his) but theres a good example simlar to Fuzz's hand only in that it shows the need to be able to call when your hand obviously isnt best but proabably beating your aggressive (and skilled) player nearing the end of a very tough field, he puts his whole tourney life on the line with a very brave call

its interesting to watch also

http://thepiratebay.org/details.php?id=3439939. (took me about 2 hours to download it)