The Lords of Kobol say yes-Ramp on its coming!!!

darkman2

Troughs on Thursday, latest fax:D http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Scubadevils

Really basic question for you lot but whats the difference between polar lows, troughs, fronts etc etc? Please

ninebeanrows

trough is a meet up of 2 slightly different airmasses.. a front is
a meet up of 2 different airmasses and a polar low forms from instability
in very cold upper air temps and usually represents itself as
a mini-hurricane on satellite pics..

Although im not the best at the basics in weather terms so ask
others they shud give you a better view;)

Scubadevils

Cheers WC. What produces the most precip?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Earthman you like???:D

Your gonna have to find some clothes folks!

Gonna be down to -10c next week:D

Oh the output tonight is outstanding.
I'd caution on the evolution for later in the week as that may change.
As for Tullow versus Maynooth for snow,I'd favour Tullow for its proximity to higher ground.
It's not that I think these charts need higher ground, they dont but Tullow is in a good spot.

ninebeanrows

Polar lows by a long shot

usually reasonably small but very intense precipitation..:)

Usually they can dump 2 inches an hour:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Troughs on Thursday, latest fax:D http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Yup heavy snow showers for the west,if the troughs come down like that including the SW.Also Ulster and North Leinster probably down to Dublin.
The south East and including me should escape with just a light flurry or stay mostly dry.

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

Polar lows by a long shot

usually reasonably small but very intense precipitation..:)

Usually they can dump 2 inches an hour:)

Wow! Bring them on so

Cheers.

Gonzo

BBC Weather this evening going for lots of snow showers next week, the Irish Sea full of them but most going to North Wales:(

Bartronilic

The important question: Is it coming to Dublin? (because Dublin is the only worthy place in Ireland). (Joking!!!)

SpitfireIV

Bartronilic wrote:

The important question: Is it coming to Dublin? (because Dublin is the only worthy place in Ireland). (Joking!!!)

Heck Bartronilic, Dublin will look like this by mid next week.......



(Joking!!!) :v: :v:

Bartronilic

Joking?! THe other thread said it will have lots. The snow can cover up the rioter's damage!

lucernarian

Taken from the other thread:

Weathercheck wrote:

You have very highly thought of People on TWO calling this the best model run for 5 years and since the beginning of TWO

Now I haven't been looking at TWO but some of the charts had a very "Feb 2001" look to them;)

Was quite sick yesterday but the charts I've seen this morning helped me feel better:D It seems at this stage with such a level of consistency that cold weather is guaranteed until at least Thursday. Whether this includes snow remains up for debate.

I would do pretty well out of this as I've found elevation to be much more useful in a Northerly than an Easterly but this is no normal Northerly. Anyway I'm reasonably far north so any showers that cross land should reach here, although much weaker.

Countryfile on BBC and the farming forecast should be very interesting;)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Taken from the other thread:


Now I haven't been looking at TWO but some of the charts had a very "Feb 2001" look to them;)

Was quite sick yesterday but the charts I've seen this morning helped me feel better:D It seems at this stage with such a level of consistency that cold weather is guaranteed until at least Thursday. Whether this includes snow remains up for debate.

I would do pretty well out of this as I've found elevation to be much more useful in a Northerly than an Easterly but this is no normal Northerly. Anyway I'm reasonably far north so any showers that cross land should reach here, although much weaker.

Countryfile on BBC and the farming forecast should be very interesting;)

At 450ft asl and in North Louth,you should be exporting snow by the end of the week

ninebeanrows

The charts this morning and nothing less than sensational:D

They are "THE BEST" charts i have ever seen:eek: :eek:

No jokes folks the spell is being upgraded ! Agreement now for
a cold spell to the 5th of March at least

This is really the best chance of a real fall of snow for over 4 years
here in Dublin:D

ninebeanrows

Hello Moto

http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack2a.gif

ninebeanrows

Earthman? Would you agree with me that the coming week is our best chance
of real snow since 2001?:eek:

Really the charts are the best i have EVER seen:eek:

Places in Eastern and Northern Scotland will be under 3 feet of powder come next Saturday, possibly the biggest dump
of snow in decades..

Here by Friday in Dublin expect at least 3 inches at some stage and most likely more

ninebeanrows

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7817.html

One of the coldest March days?

Widespread snow in Tuesday evening too

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn604.html
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn602.html

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

At 450ft asl and in North Louth,you should be exporting snow by the end of the week

Correction, 475 ft asl:D

The latest GFS run does look like an upgrage so far and given that it's already a noticeable difference at +96 hours, this is encouraging. The east coast of Ireland is now under -40 500 hPa air at that stage, the wind is more Northerly than NWerly and 850 hPa temps are around -8 or -9.

Now if that LP moved 75 or 100 miles SW, it would be fantastic!! Still though I'm not that happy about the fact that heavy snow looks confined to northern coasts. Beggers cant be choosers though:)

Villain

Well we'r in for something special I think, Earthman while I love the title of this thread do you think it might be better to have a title that will warn non snow lovers like us about the cold snap coming.

Maybe something like "WARNING Severe Cold Spell This Week", just an idea.

Irish1,I wont put up any warning threads untill monday as at least then there will be some clarity on the specefics.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Theres a secondary low that would plaster Ulster with snow including "to be _confirmed" in north Louth

Now lets see where it goes.... according to this run as a word of caution nothing is guaranteed specefics wise yet

This run wants it to go down the Irish sea close to the East coast,it would most likely intensify as it goes down over the warmer Irish sea waters..
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1084.html
Oh Goody

Villain

So looking at these charts we have as good as chance as anywhere at seeing some white stuff, with obviously the North seeing the best?

I shouldnt really be wishing for the kind of disruption possible from this..

Oh and yeah Northern areas would fare best.

However, that system has the capability when driving down the Irish sea to bring several inches to the East coast like the October 2003 northerly that brought 24hrs of floods and thunderstorms to Dublin.

Hard to say as its FI really.

lucernarian

Indeed, the +60 and +108 charts are quite decent. The +60 chart, seeing as it's not far away timewise is quite good, I'm under about 1.5 mm ppn (snow:D ) and just about under -10 hPa air.

The 108+ and onwards has the LP crashing into wales and although the chart here:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1204.png

does not look that impressive, I'm sure these small details will change over the next 5 days:)

Btw I'm in south Louth but What difference does it make...:p

Villain

It's amazing just when everyone seemed to have given up on the 2005/2006 winter it goes and throws up some of the best charts seeing in years.

I remember someone once saying "the only thing you can be certain about when it comes to the weather is its uncertainty"!!

Gonzo

any chance of us in Meath seeing any Snow or are we too far west from the east coast to catch these showers that will be brushing the east coast?

Villain

UK Met office are now ramping:

EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

EARLY WARNING of Heavy Snow Issued by the Met Office at 12:00 on Sunday, 26 February

OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT: The probability of disruption due to severe weather conditions in part of the United Kingdom within the next 84 hours is 90 percent.
This is the first warning of disruption due to Heavy Snow.
The Met Office is forecasting a very cold northerly flow to become established across the UK during Tuesday. This is expected to bring snow showers to many places. Areas most at risk are coastal and upland regions exposed to the northerly flow - in particular northern and northeastern Scotland along with some eastern counties of England. In these areas frequent heavy snow showers could bring accumulations of 5-10cm at times, with 30 percent risk of locally over 20 cm. In addition, some locally significant falls of snow could occur over parts of N Ireland and west Wales, especially on high ground. Strong winds are likely to cause drifting at times with blizzard conditions possible over high ground. Disruption to transport is possible and some roads may become impassable.
The cold, wintry spell is expected to continue for the following few days, with the possibility of persistent snow across southern counties. The early warning may be extended in subsequent issues as the risk becomes clearer.
This warning will be updated by 1200 tomorrow, Monday 27th February 2006

ninebeanrows

Gonzo i know this is uncalled for but i can guarantee you'll see
at least 2 inches outside your house this week and probably much
much more!:D

Countryfile is on at 1145 tune in for one of the best forecasts ever:D

Villain

Is that on BBC One WC?

ninebeanrows

Yea near the end of that countryfile show:)

ninebeanrows

Tuesday - Saturday

Overnights mins of -4c - -8c
Daytime maxima of 1-4c

Weather: Widespread snow showers or longer spells of snow especially in
the east, west and north.

That sums up how this weel is going to unfold..

From Tuesday bands of snow will start clumping together to the north
of the country and polar lows are a possiblity:)

I'd go for 5cm on the ground in Dublin by Wednesday morning

Villain

Just watched Countryfile, Monday is a non event, then Tuesday has some showers around, Wednesday and Thursday has the West Coast and North getting snow, nothing in the East though!!!!!:(

darkman2

irish1 wrote:

Just watched Countryfile, Monday is a non event, then Tuesday has some showers around, Wednesday and Thursday has the West Coast and North getting snow, nothing in the East though!!!!!:(

Snow should be expected at times everywhere. Especially this time of year with the strength of the sun. And that low in the north sea coming closer and closer:)

ninebeanrows

irish1 wrote:

Just watched Countryfile, Monday is a non event, then Tuesday has some showers around, Wednesday and Thursday has the West Coast and North getting snow, nothing in the East though!!!!!:(

Dont you worry:D

Honestly dont..:D

There will be widespread snow shrs during Tuesday:D

ninebeanrows

tune in at 1307 for the irish version;)

Scubadevils

Yeah, it didnt look particulary exciting for us really. Although do they pay much attention to Ireland?

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote:

Yeah, it didnt look particulary exciting for us really. Although do they pay much attention to Ireland?

Rarely would i see charts even that good on countryfile

Remember there not going to through maps with snow everywhere on
Sunday when they can update during the week..

Troughs and bands of showers will work down throughout the week:D

lucernarian

Countryfile has plenty of whiteness on the maps. I also noticed at the very end of the run (not sure what time) had a kink in the isobars off Western Scotland.

There was a clump of whiteness also just off the irish sea for much of the time. Didn't like the wind direction forecast though - due NW.

Galway looks set for a pasting by the CF forecast. The farming forecast is up next at 1305:).

Dublin ensembles:
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

Villain

Anyone know a nice Hotel in the west of Donegal!!

Ah we'll just have to hope that wind swing nw.

darkman2

No need for that hotel. Latest fax for Thursday:http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack3a.gif Troughs:)

Imagine this and the subsequent chart from ECM coming off:

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Gonzo i know this is uncalled for but i can guarantee you'll see
at least 2 inches outside your house this week and probably much
much more!:D

Countryfile is on at 1145 tune in for one of the best forecasts ever:D

I would agree with that assessment tbh.

As for Country file-the whole forecast was being general.
Theres no way that they could be specefic at this stage and neither can the RTE forecast.
All they can say is the usual exposed places will get snow.
It wont be sleet with depoints well below zero,thats for sure.

The country file forecast also couldnt see polar lows or the extent of the shower activity as thats very difficult to predict in terms of the extent .
They went for definitives which are the coastal margins.

Stay tuned to the daily forecasts for the specefics which I'd imagine will be more interesting.

Incidently the low for thursday with the big snow event is gone, which is a good thing as it prolongs the snow.
I've a feeling even WC might be fed up of the cold by this time next week*



(* though I highly doubt it)

highdef

Hmmm, farming forecast only went as far as Tuesday!!! They obviously haven't a clue wht'll be going on for next week so. Gonna be very very interesting indeed.

Villain

Farming Forecast RTE1:Very Cold air Tuesday and Wednesday, north facing coasts seeing snow on high ground, Thursday and Friday seeing Wintry showers mainly in the North, very cold into next weekend.

Ladies and Gentlemen it looks like GAME ON, but we have a few days to go first, defo going to be cold and defo going to be snow in the North.

LoL at that RTE forecast from Gerry Murphy
Worst forecast I've ever seen given what could be happening.

(sorry DapperGent!)

But like he came out with a classic-"maybe some snow on high ground at night" :rolleyes:

Totally ridiculous in my opinion.

darkman2

MET EIREANN are going to be stung by the b**** again! Youd think they would have learnt some lessons after last Febuaries Easterly. Obviously not:)

SpitfireIV

They seemed to be very conservative on the RTE forecast just now, I thought they'd be bringing there little snow clouds into full use

Villain

Most people take the met offices word, so I think a few people could be in for a surprise this week, especially farmers who just watched that forecast.

LookingFor

It was a bit confusing as to where they saw shower activity happening from Tuesday on. He mentioned initially north-facing coasts, and eastern coasts, but then later the charts showed no activity on the eastern coast

I just hope north western dublin sees something

lucernarian

Rather dissapointing, that is if they are right*















Which they are probably not:)

darkman2

This is what is expected for Tuesday, nothing more, nothing less:)