The Lords of Kobol say Ramp (yes a good old fashioned Ramp)

ninebeanrows

I think and yes only think..

We could be facing our worst cold spell, both intenisty wise and snowise
wince February 2001. 6 or more days of severe frosts, snow shower,
periods of more prolonged snow and maxima between 2-4c.

Its late February and were heading into March this cold spell is one of
the beefiest possible..

I think we finally jumped the hurdle whether we just get a few snow showers
and frosts or lots of snow is a different story but i think were pretty muched
blocked in for a signifigant cold spell for at least a 5 day period from Sunday:)

ninebeanrows

When i term hard frosts i mean SEVERE FROSTS with temperatures
down to -8c by midweek in the midlands and -4c widely even on coasts:)

Its not going to be nice for the unprepared..

Its coming.. finally:rolleyes:

darkman2

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_18.gif?ecc79bab7c3d56296ecc764b52b5c43c

Nice ensembles:D

Supercell

Hmm, its the end of Feb, and i am getting slightly enthused up..lets see how things look on Saturday before going nuts, at this time of year, it has to be PERFECT synoptically to give a decent cold spell, topplers etc..forget it..just will be rain like today.

Agreed Longfield

Personally for here I dont like the look of the NW element in most of this.
It could deliver to Meath and Dublin but down here probably not.

Danno

Did someone say NWly???

FINALLY - FINALLY!

lucernarian

That LP is much too far east for us to be caught in the occluded front. Ireland will be covered in a warm sector for the bulk of this and ppn would be rain but that's still 4 days away.

But the LP would need to radically alter for it to compare to Feb 2001. Also that event only really delivered in 2 particular spots, Dublin city and the coasts of Louth:).

Still though, cold nights are ahead.

Scubadevils

Not that I know much about the ensembles but looking at Manchester in comparison to Dublin it certainly looks that we will be milder -

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

I hope I have posted the right links!

I think the Lords of Kobol are in danger of getting the sack...

That is all.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

But the LP would need to radically alter for it to compare to Feb 2001. Also that event only really delivered in 2 particular spots, Dublin city and the coasts of Louth:).

Uhm no.
4 feet drifts in Roundwood co wicklow with roads blocked.

darkman2

Guys the breakdown for next Thursday and Friday is 'interesting'. Widespread snowfall? (sorry posted this in the obs)

With Northerly to follow:D

Gonzo

theres little to almost no chance of seeing decent snow next week from looking at the charts... the mild air will be so close to us all the time, I just know in my heart all were gonna see is a bit of sleety stuff, maybe a few light snow showers for the lucky few and some night frosts, winter is just too far gone and the real cold isnt gonna get in here.

LookingFor

Met Eireann removed the 's' word from their forecast for the weekend They also seem to have postponed the drop in temperatures from today til tomorrow or Sunday..yesterday they were saying it'd be 5c at most today in the northeastern half, but today they're saying 6c or 7c :rolleyes:

Temp has dropped 3 degree's here since morning

The dewpoint has dropped by 5, I think,its now subzero

darkman2

UKMO:

Cold or very cold at first with a mixture of clear or sunny spells and scattered sleet or snow showers. The showers more especially over north and east facing coastal areas, extending further inland at times, and perhaps also affecting exposed western promontories. Some heavy showers are likely in the east with several cm of snowfall possible, especially on high ground, whilst any accumulations elsewhere are likely to be slight. The showers dying out through the period allowing a more generally dry interlude to develop but becoming increasingly cloudy and unsettled from the west or southwest later with outbreaks of rain preceded by a spell of snow. Temperatures gradually recovering to near or even a little above average, except perhaps in the northeast where they may stay a little below normal.
From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html



Deffo snow in these temps Thursday night:D

ninebeanrows

I dont think we expected the cold until Sunday into Monday..

And Monday through to Friday look cold and potential snowy..

The front on Monday will makr the change to really bitter northerly
winds but Sunday will be a cold dry day with temps of 3-6c.

Monday will see a band or rain head into Ulster this will quickly turn
to sleet and snow as it pushes south and should be of snow on its back
edge.

Then from Tuesday through to Friday we see the really cold stuff maxima
of 2-4c dewpoints of -4 or -5c and lots of potential for heavy bursts of snow.

Then towards Friday/Saturday Low pressure will try to push up from the south but it will likely fail at its first attempt this event could lead to
a real dumping of snow in more central and northern areas:)

Supercell

Hmm, i'm not really liking the 06Z at all, its looking like a British and possibly NI cold snap now, here maybe some sleety stuff , but snow lying, reckon its v unlikely here in Dublin at least.

ninebeanrows

Oh and through this evening.. the precip is not as plentiful as i expected
but a peppering of showers will be up and going on the east coast from now
and will start to fall as snow as we go through the afternoon:)

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Hmm, i'm not really liking the 06Z at all, its looking like a British and possibly NI cold snap now, here maybe some sleety stuff , but snow lying, reckon its v unlikely here in Dublin at least.

If the 6z came off snow would be lying in Dublin many times so your
judgement on the 6z is fortunately incorrect:)

Supercell

True if the mean ensemble line came off, i'm referring to the trend here, notice that instead of most of the lines after sun being <-8C after its now 1st of march before proper cold makes it.

So yes and no to what you are saying WC

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

I dont think we expected the cold until Sunday into Monday..

The 850 temps on the 06z dont support that-they are worse than todays...

And Monday through to Friday look cold and potential snowy..

I'd have said wenesday through to Friday.As its only wenesday onwards that Irish 850 temps hit -8 and below(apart from later today in the south east where they hit -10 over wexford)

The front on Monday will makr the change to really bitter northerly
winds but Sunday will be a cold dry day with temps of 3-6c.

It's already 3 or 4 degrees in the East so any further drop giving rain would be a surprise,I'd say they will rise and then drop back to what they are today again, which is borderline.The lower dewpoints will help,but only really if the air temp is 3c or below.

Monday will see a band or rain head into Ulster this will quickly turn
to sleet and snow as it pushes south and should be of snow on its back
edge.

Possibly but again the 850's are only -4 and -5 which wont help.

Then from Tuesday through to Friday we see the really cold stuff maxima
of 2-4c dewpoints of -4 or -5c and lots of potential for heavy bursts of snow.

Well yeah from Tuesday night but we are really depending on precip and that will need little lows.
Showers wont be much use south of Ulster unless the 850 temps hit -9 or lower.

Then towards Friday/Saturday Low pressure will try to push up from the south but it will likely fail at its first attempt this event could lead to
a real dumping of snow in more central and northern areas:)

I'll replace the "will" with "might" there as by then we are firmly in FI territory (we're actually in FI on wenesday as well but hey!)

Oh and through this evening.. the precip is not as plentiful as i expected
but a peppering of showers will be up and going on the east coast from now
and will start to fall as snow as we go through the afternoon

Yeah as I said(if they are to be believed) the 06z has a tasty -10 850 cold pool over wexford and fringing south wicklow this evening.
There should be some sort of accuracy at that short range... if GFS is any good at all it should get something right at 12 hours away??

Temp is a tad high by a degree(4.2c) for comfort but the dewpoint down here has fallen to -1c now for the first time which helps.

Anyway heres Wexfords nice 850 for tonight :P further up is -9 and from Dublin North -8 which is back in borderline territory.

Ho Hum

I'd just like to announce that we've just had a light

Snow shower !!! here

darkman2

Are you serious? Are you at sea level?:rolleyes:

Gonzo

still rain showers here im afraid

darkman2

Expect loads of snow, particularly in the Northern half of the country on Thursday and Friday next week as the breakdown low hits the bitterly cold air:D

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Are you serious? Are you at sea level?:rolleyes:

Yes I am I wouldnt have posted that otherwise...
Nothing since.

Now 3.8c and the dewpoint has fallen further to -2.7c

I'm 2 miles inland and 162ft above sea level-so as good as sea level really.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Yes I am I wouldnt have posted that otherwise...
Nothing since.

Now 3.8c and the dewpoint has fallen further to -2.7c

I'm 2 miles inland and 162ft above sea level-so as good as sea level really.

Not much, if any activity here at the moment. Temp has plumeted though. 3C now:)

Thats what I'm wondering about.

Rosslare was reporting just 3c at lunch time and I've been hovering from 3c to 4 c all day.

Chop another 2 c off that and you are near zero assuming the northerly is supposed to be colder.
Dewpoint has literally fallen through the floor since this morning and the wet bulb temp is down 4 or 5 c already aswell.

I've seen snow fall at 4c before obviously but I take 3 celcuis with a negative dewpoint as a guide to absolute min conditions for snow to be reasonably guaranteed.
After this afternoons surprise,I'm happy that snow can and should fall next week but I dont know about sunday and monday if the upper air is as mild as the 06 suggested.
Colder surface air though will help as of course will neg DP's.

Rel humidity dipping below 60%-hit 57% there for a while.
Dewpoint dipped to -3.8c

These are very good signs

ninebeanrows

Bitterly cold here with a biting easterly wind. Cloud has been building
and now looks abit onomious.. i would expect any showers this evening
to fall as snow:)

ninebeanrows

The reall bitter weather arrives on Tuesday



Excellant chart that one of the best of the winter and only 4 days away:)

PS. The sky is very threatening here. the question is.. will it snow?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Bitterly cold here with a biting easterly wind. Cloud has been building
and now looks abit onomious.. i would expect any showers this evening
to fall as snow:)

Without a doubt 2 or 3 c with dewpoints of -2 or -3 c

The precip needs to form though-pressures still a bit high and rising unfortunately.

ninebeanrows

Really looks like a classic set-up next week.

After a bitter Tuesday and Wednesday with snow showers and more prologed
outbreaks a real dumping of snow is possible as LP move up against the
Greeny High only to be rejected swinging the cold air from the east:)



These used to be dreamy +384hr charts now there dreamy +132

chart of the run I think

Bring it into the bank manager and ask for a loan to open up a ski resort

ninebeanrows

Coldest chart i have ever ever seen for Ireland:eek:

*if* that was an accurate picture (its FI yet unfortunately) you can bet that those low temps would be anywhere ten or 20 miles inland probably.

SpitfireIV

A VERY (and I mean VERY) brief snow shower here in Carlow town. This has to be the coldest day of the week by far! Very dark and gloomy too

Carpenter

Ok
If and i say if you were to put your neck on the line when do you think (if) we will see snow

darkman2

Snow storm slightly further south on the 12z. Probrably will be slightly further north. Anyway the East South and midlands would have loads of snow, blizzard conditions:D

Well theres a few light showers near the isle of man heading towards Dublin in the next couple of hours

But as for next week its all up in the air yet.
The NWP run that we've just looked at could change subtly and we'd have no snow.
I dont thrust these things more than 96 hours out.

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

Uhm no.
4 feet drifts in Roundwood co wicklow with roads blocked.

My mistake, my statement was based on that snow coverage chart that Mothman posted a while back. A part of Antrim also did well AFAIR.

We have had intermittent snow grain showers since 1630. Area towards Skerries looked the cloudiest and hardest to see, followed by the end of the cooley penninsula. Cooley Mts. didn't seem snow covered though.

Charts for Friday are incredible. A -10 in Munster:eek:

more snow flurries here in the last half hour.

Temp 3.3 and dp -2c

LookingFor

TV3 Weather mentioned snow as a possibility for next Wednesday..(for what it's worth, though I know Martin King's word isn't worth a lot round here )

It's been pretty cloudy all afternoon here (west dublin) but haven't seen any precipitation since the early afternoon (which was just pretty heavy hail/sleety stuff).

Dewpoint at M2 is below zero and the temp out there is only around 4c, which is actually way better than at times in the february spell last year when it was maybe 1c dp and +6 air temp.

Downside for the moment... the pressures high and theres little or no activity in the Irish sea bar a weak line thats trying to develop near the isle of man.

Air temps certainly heading the right way despite the wind
2.9 now and the dp down to -2.6c
Wind gusting to near 30mph Brrrrrr

lucernarian

In the spirit of the thread, and because I've given little to cheer about, I checked Metcheck for Thursday night next week.

Still FI of course but the amount and type of ppn forecast then is astonishing. The peak of the ppn is over Wicklow on this run with more snow than rain northwards and vice versa southwards. Over 6 inches is forecast for the night in Louth, the most I've seen for here on Metcheck:) Dublin had 20.3 cms if you use the x10 multiplier but it turns to sleet.

This could be very exciting should the runs hold their course over the next few days. But the likelihood of that happening...:(

Slippin Jimmy

What would be the chances of Navan of getting a bit of snow over the next week or so? Hope it does, the school might be shut and I won't have to do the mocks:D , until I come back:( . Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

Supercell

Hmmmm, some rain showers today, 850's @ - 8- currently.

Its the end of Feb, -10 or better imho is needed for proper snowfalls here unless high up.

Dark blue is snow at sea leval, light blue is snow in high areas.

Dublin



London



Manchester



If anyone here near the east coast sees lying snow >3cm in the next week i'll be very suprised (unless they live considerably inland and at elevation)

Supercell

The 18Z moves us more upwards in terms of temps, this is going south.

Cornilius

Hi im new to the board.Im a mad snow fan, i couldnt believe that there are so many like me.I have 2 travel from Kildare 2 Derry on thursday what are the chances of me making it?

SpitfireIV

Welcome Cornilius,

Yep, we're all snow mad here, only problem is that we just aint getting the snow. We live in hope but all too often are dissapointed .

What are the chances of bad weather on Thursday? Well going by past experience and what I see on here I doubth next Thursday will be any different to today (perhaps a bit colder?), but one of the experts will give you a better description.

Remember, its next Thursday so no one can say for sure.

All the best,

CroppyBoy1798

Villain

Well its getting interesting, the 06z run seems to pusing the mild weather further south, but by my reading we'll be very lucky to see any kind of decent snow in Carlow, it's going to be cold though very cold.

FI is very interesting, if it was to come off the first week and a half of March would be cold, very cold.