Lords of Kobol-give us a white out please

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Theres a couple of good charts darkman2 in this 18z for the East that show a NNE flow and -10 air

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

That one would send lake effect snow showers into Dublin (deffo snow I think with minus dewpoints and -10 850's)

Then it swings NNW untill 150 when we get our showers back again

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/Rtavn1502.png

Not all bad in the East I think,if some of the lake effect snow showers are shared with wales instead of all going into wales.

There could also be a polar low or three in the mix and if they coincided with a NNE flow-bingo,I think.

Good overall for Ulster regardless of the NNE to NNW swings and North connaught

I agree, btw precip type suggests snow for a time in Eastern areas during Friday on the 18z. Might want to watch that one. The charts are still very good for next week. Hopefully decent ensemble agreement tonight:)

SpitfireIV

Is it just my puter, or are the Temperature Trend and the Snow Risk thingy on MetCheck not working today? I wanna have a look at them.

Oh, new tread. Please Lords of Kobol (whoever you are) smile down on us

Danno

Precip radar is awfully quiet over alot of the North Atlantic Isles now...

Great agreement there on the coldness of the northerly for a few days to march 2nd or so

And agreement on a very sharp dip in the 850's coinciding with Fridays front too

Interesting

Corben Dallas

So say we all.


Frcakin* toasters............


*boards have one Battlestar Galatica cuss words aware! if u type Fr ackin u get *****in toasters
LOL
right on.

Danno

Erm... what has that got to do with 528dam air, polar lows and 850hpa temperatures?

Danno

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/INTERACTIVE/forum.asp <<< anyone here ever visit this forum?

Danno

Danno wrote:

Erm... what has that got to do with 528dam air, polar lows and 850hpa temperatures?

He probably saw lords of kobol in the thread title on the boards.ie front page and drifted by to see what its about...

The lords of Kobol are an inane reference I've used to Battlestar Galactica.
They are the Gods you see that we would pray to if we were from there...

Sky one programme-very popular

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=490

Danno

Ooops! - Apologies! Not a sci-fi fan really.

Tomorrow evenings event is going to be a tough one to call. Nocturnal cooling could give this inland location an increased chance of snow? I do hope so!

I'd be surprised if you didnt see snow.

I'd be surprised if I do,but not shocked.
Nearest definite location for snow to me would probably be about 4 miles away only where the ground rises rapidly to between 500 and 2000ft and is 5 to 6 miles inland when it starts rising.
I'd imagine the 500ft area will see a fair amount though it may or may not stick,whereas 800ft should see sticking snow and certainly above 1000ft should see several inches if the band is heavy enough.

If it's heavy enough,I might even see some wet snow,but if I do, the guys at 500ft 2 or 3 miles from here will see settling snow and maybe an inch or two.

Thats my guess for the local area.
I'd equate your area Danno with about the same chances as the guys at 500ft near me.

I could be wrong.

Danno

Cheers Earthman - I look forward to something hopefully!

ninebeanrows

Wel infact the precip will probably arrive on the eastern coast
around 12am and contiue westwards. I reckon it will fall as perhaps sleet
first before turning to rain in most areas except on mtns above say 400m
where snow will fall and probably continue to do so. As tomorrow dawns
much colder weather will push in from the east and turn the remaining
precipitation to snow from 12am onwards:)

RAF Valley is reporting rain in North wales on the coast so with positive dewpoints in the Irish sea,rain or at best sleet is a near certainty on the East coast.
Snow at times above 600ft maybe.

Temp here is currently +4 with a dewpoint of -1.
The dewpoint is grand but the air temp is a degree or two too high.

The NRA stations including the one on the M1 near Dublin airport are reporting even warmer temps.

Some heavy precip in the Irish sea now,not far off Dublin.
Raining in Liverpool and manchester though with better temps than Dublin,so I'll still go for rain with some icy bits mixed in.
Might be wet snow if it's heavy enough.

I'm going for rain or at best sleet here, as the temp is 4.3c.
The dewpoint being below freezing will help.

Lets see.

Incidently the precip type radar on NW has snow fallingover a lot of Ulster and into Louth...
Dont know about that.

Temp up to 5c now here and at Dub airport

Stand by for the rain folks

Meanwhile,the o6z run this morning is cold-very very cold for mid week next week.

It has snow for Gonzo written all over it

Gonzo

lol hope your right, that would make my winter alright:)

as for now its just started to rain quite heavy outside

ninebeanrows

Today is a classic example of cold rain

Absolutely bitter outside in that precip

And you could feel the icyness as it hit your face!

Bitter

ninebeanrows

Todays cold rain and sleet will push slowly southwards but much of the
country will remain cloudy and drizzly. Its tomorrow afternoon and evening
when some eastern areas will see a heavier pulse of precip push in this
will readily turn to snow and should give 3hrs of snow in places tomorrow
afternoon/evening especially in the east:)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn302.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.png

Meanwhile the rain here has turned to sleet

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Today is a classic example of cold rain

Absolutely bitter outside in that precip

And you could feel the icyness as it hit your face!

Bitter

Snow is falling above 900ft
I know this because I drove up to have a look.

It's mad-here its raining albeit icy rain and less than 10 minutes drive away,its snowing and sticking slightly

ninebeanrows

Yep and the 6z ENS's are outstounding..

We really do now face the prospect of an almighty northerly blast.
for 6 days or dewpoints will be well below zero 850's temps around
-8--9c. Temps around 3-5c with snow showers and bands of snow.
Deep frosts on some nights down below -6c i reckon.

Were headed into the deepest winter spell of the winter and that
is for sure.. that snow falling on the wicklow mtns might last for a long
time and to think we thought winter was finished:D

Temp is heading in the right direction anyway down to 4.2c now

Dewpoint disappointing at 1c but lets see how the day progresses.

The ensembles are fascinating. A slight NE flow at times,-10 850's, -40 500's and low pressure.

Dublin Airport Metar
EIDW 231230Z 36009KT 9999 -RA FEW005 SCT010 BKN014 03/02 Q1031 NOSIG=

Light rain

Taf expecting sleet

EIDW 231200Z 231322 03012KT 9999 SCVT015 BKN025 TEMPO 1322 5000 -RA -RASN BKN010 =
EIDW 231000Z 231812 36010KT 9999 -RA SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 1809 3000 -RASN SCT007 BKN010 BECMG 2023 36016KT BECMG 0710 05017G28KT=

Mothman

4C raining
DP 2C

ninebeanrows

Some light rain here now

I really think tomorrow from 12am snow could fall to sea level in the east.

Areas at risk include. Dublin, Meath, Wicklow, Wexford and much
of Munster and the south Midlands. Would not be surprised to see
a decent fall in the south Mids and up by you Earthman may 1inch or 2;)

For here i just expect to see some falling snow walking home from school:D

Coldest day of the week so far

I've just seen Nuala Carey on RTE and she calls today mild :eek:

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Some light rain here now

I really think tomorrow from 12am snow could fall to sea level in the east.

Areas at risk include. Dublin, Meath, Wicklow, Wexford and much
of Munster and the south Midlands. Would not be surprised to see
a decent fall in the south Mids and up by you Earthman may 1inch or 2;)

For here i just expect to see some falling snow walking home from school:D

I wouldnt be so confident yet,it might even be milder tomorrow going by the latest BBC output.
It will certainly start to get a lot colder from late sunday though and thats when the fun and games may begin

darkman2

Great charts for next week. Heavy sleet and snow showers or longer periods of snow, particularly in Northern parts:D

SpitfireIV

Just read this on MetCheck:

"The developing low pressure will continue to push Westwards overnight and into the early hours of Friday morning. As this takes places there will be a renewed surge of cold air from the East and a marked increase in windspeeds. As a result any precipitaiton that currently is rain across England and Wales will turn back to snow overnight and into Friday. With moderate to strong Easterly winds there will be a significant wind chill across many parts of the country on Friday."

How does that affect us? Or will it affect us?

CroppyBoy1798

it wont

ninebeanrows

Im goin to stick my head on the line and i havent for a while!

But i think that from say 1300hrs tomorrow snow will begin to fall in the
east to lower levels and this will will quickly transfer west.

Moderate snow is likely from 1400hr - 1900hrs across Leinster with
sub zero dew points and rapidly falling temperatures which will
be at 2 or 3c in Dublin by 1600hrs.

Slight appreciation of snow is likely although the ground will be very wet.
Some light flurries will continue through into the night before clearing to
a frosty cold night with temps down to -1 or -2c:)

ninebeanrows

The true arctic air that will deliver our 6 day cold freeze/blast arrives this
Sunday with plummelling dew points and 850hpa temps a sever frost likely
Sunday night nationwide poss down to -5c

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn7210.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn722.png

ninebeanrows

I suppose March 1st could of looked worse..........



:v:

Gonzo

looking at the radar there appears to be a heavy band of rain or sleet just off the east coast and stretching into the Belfast area and its heading towards louth, meath, dublin, kildare, wicklow etc... temperatures have falling here and the rains getting heavier and starting to turn a wee bit sleety.

lucernarian

A shame the low pressure forecast is so far south:rolleyes: Ah well, many parts should see something;) As for me, I haven't even seen a flake of snow this week. Apart for about 1 minute at 1 pm yesterday there was no hail either. Just cold rain:mad:
Even at home at about 475 feet there is not a hint of snow.

Next week still looks good though I fear that the cold will be too far east for something very significant though considering the luck we've had it's not all that bad. Any more organised precipitation though might drag in warm air and fall as rain, before and/or after any snow. This happened on Christmas Day 2004 here.

ninebeanrows

Temp has dropped to 3.8c and its become very inlement outside
freezing cold with lashing icy rain:)

Mothman

Temp above 4C, DP just shy of 3C
Light rain

ninebeanrows

Moderate rain temps down to 2.7c

Interesting;)

lucernarian

Finally, there is a sleety nature in the rather heavy rain we have at the moment. Even the Friday after Christmas had better sleet though:(

Danno

2.8c now, high was 5.4c today.

Sleet at first today, then rain, now sleet again...

About 5mm has fallen I reckon, pity it was not snow...

SpitfireIV

Constant icy rain.....then mist.....and now rain since 1pm today here, jeez and its so darn cold out!! :rolleyes:

Scubadevils

Heavy sleet in Ballymount around 1pm today which quickly turned to rain, as already mentioned, if only it had been snow all day!

Scubadevils

So how are we looking for the next few days? The UK folk seem to be getting excited but what about us poor unfortunates?

Danno

What are the snowlines in metres on the Wicklow Mtns at the moment, anyone further south and west with snow lines to report???

Snow was falling at the gate of Croghan Mt this morning but not settling-thats a 1000ft Asl or 330 metres roughly( the mt peak is further up at 2000ft).
There was a wet dusting at the top of the wood about a mile beyond that gate which would be roughly 1600ft and some nice twisty flakes falling
Muggins got out of there fast as the chances of the gate being locked on the way down did not appeal to me.It was mostly rain a half mile down the road at maybe 800ft and all rain with icy bits below that.
The temp and dewpoint has remained roughly the same here all day, so I'd imagine theres some slushy stuff at the top of that wood now.

A proper expedition up there next week on wenesday or so and I'll bring the camera.
It's only 5 miles away and it's like a different planet


As for next week,I wouldnt be as optimistic as WC, but certainly theres a good chance of a polar low of three delivering a covering.
From the model output Wenesday and Thursday look like the more interesting days and both have a slight NE flow to the northerly which would blow in to the East coast whatever the Irish sea has to offer.

Dew point is rising now at 2.5c so that búggers snow for tonight even on the high ground I'd say.

Not too far out in the Irish sea off Dublin the M2 buoy is reporting a DP of 6c and a temp of 7c
So I'd say with the air coming from there, its not going to be cold tonight at all.

Mothman

Temp rising quickly during past half hour and is now max of day and nearly 6C with DP now falling from 4C to 3C. Rain has just stopped, total 7.4mm.

Still raining here,though we've had a lot less than you mothman, it was very light mostly and indeed dry for a lot of the day.

Temp now 4.9c dewpoint 3.5c

So some of that Irish sea high temp,high DP air is taking effect.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EIME

The above is based on the 12z for casement and aint too inspiring in terms of surface temps.
The only good values are for wenesday/thursday and indeed the wind is never progged to be NE when the northerly proper comes.
Mostly dry here I'd say bar a polar low or three according to that or a system but borderline even at that.

Scubadevils

This really is and will continue to be the mother of all disappointments Oh, Lords of Kobol, why do you tease us so? :v:

Mothman

Temp steady at 6.6C, DP up to near 5C

ninebeanrows

It was always supposed to get milder tonight as the warm sector
pushes through.

This has been no disappointed for me since Monday or Sunday i knew
Thursday would likely be rain.

Im still going for snow from tomorrow 2pm

ninebeanrows

Upper temps for Midnight



Upper temps for tomorrow 11am



Precip

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png