hand from last nites 15K on ppp?

Gholimoli

this hand came up last nite and its not an interesting hand at all but im just curious as to how you would play this hand as im trying to fix the leaks in my game.
34 people left
Blinds 800/1600
my stack 33K
villain 45K

my table image: Rock ,i have played maybe 3 hands in the last hour or so.
i have not shown any cards. One i had AA and took the pot pre flop with a raise. The other time i had AA and limped and took the pot after a raise on a rag flop. Another time i had KK and came over the top of raiser and took the pot. in the last 15 min or so i have gone from 13K to 33K with a rush of good hands.
a couple of hands before this hand i min raised from the CO with KJ and villian called from SB and he made a pot sized bet on a rag flop and i folded.

read on villain: hyper aggressive, refuses to fold after raising a pot pre-flop or when gets involved in a hand. about 10 min ago he had stack of 60K which he blew after he raised from CO and BB flat called him.
flop had a couple of Broadway cards and each time he bet the pot and the BB flat called him. on the river BB had 9K left and the pot was about 50K and villain put BB all in and BB called showing AA and villain had A8.there was not 8 or A on the board. After that villain had about 27K left but got him self back to 40+K with a few all ins.

The hand:
im on the CO again with AK diamonds and make it 6K leaving my self with about 26K after its folded to me.
its folded to villain on the BB who flat calls the raise.
Pot:14K or there about
Flop: 2 8 9 with one diamond.
Villain makes a half pot bet.
What’s my move and why?

Norwich Fan Rob

perhaps he has u on 2 high cards and think youve missed.
unlikely hes very strong, as if guys who continually fire when they miss, tend to check monsters i find !!!
extremely unlikely he leads with a set on that board, as he would probably check to u as u were the PF raiser.
With top pair here, he might bet the pot, to get a better understanding of where he is.
With TT, JJ, he should definetely bet the pot here in my opinion.

I would think he cant call a substantial raise here, and if u are wrong and he top pair or an over pair, u are still looking at 6 outs.

His bet does look like he is looking for information to see where he stands, or to have a stab at the pot (as he clearly likes to do).

However, u can get away from this easily here and wait for a better spot. Is it worth taking on unpredictable villian with A high.

I hate these types of situation myself when u miss the flop with AK and a loose guy makes a weak lead.

Tricky one.

Culchie

Gholi, your image is not one of a rock. Just because you may have decided to play like a rock last night, isn't going to change the mind (or notes) of someone who has played you before so quickly.

It's not a criticism by any means, it's very successful for you.

"Perception is reality" when it comes to image. You can use this to your advantage when the time is right, but you must be aware of this on other occassions.

Gholimoli

Culchie wrote:

Gholi, your image is not one of a rock. Just because you may have decided to play like a rock last night, isn't going to change the mind (or notes) of someone who has played you before so quickly.

It's not a criticism by any means, it's very successful for you.

"Perception is reality" when it comes to image. You can use this to your advantage when the time is right, but you must be aware of this on other occassions.

Agree 100% .
if any of them had notes on me then my image would not be Rock to them at all as i don’t play like a rock .however this villain i hadn’t seen before and i didn’t have notes on him so maybe he didn’t have notes on me and he was judging me based on the way i was playing.
i can confidently say i played maybe 4 hands in space of an hour and my stack went from 17K to 13K as i wasn’t playing or trying to steal at all. I was card dead.
Any how what are your thoughts on the hand?

handsfree

generally in tournaments when i find myself in this situation i'd flat call. when the turn comes he probably will give up if he has nothing and if he has a second barrell. you'll just have to decide whether you believe him or not. i'd reraise on the turn. its a bit of a risky move but you can nearly double up with a nothing hand if you get it right, but as rob says if hes that aggressive he would probably check that flop so my guess is that your ahead.

Culchie

Gholimoli wrote:

Agree 100% .
if any of them had notes on me then my image would not be Rock to them at all as i don’t play like a rock .however this villain i hadn’t seen before and i didn’t have notes on him so maybe he didn’t have notes on me and he was judging me based on the way i was playing.
i can confidently say i played maybe 4 hands in space of an hour and my stack went from 17K to 13K as i wasn’t playing or trying to steal at all. I was card dead.
Any how what are your thoughts on the hand?

I think he has A8 or A9, I think he has you on AK or AQ and hopes his bet will take it down.

He won't like your push, but probably isn't good enough to fold it.

I think you should fold, you call the bet you are deep into the pot.

You fold you still have 20+BB

Gholimoli

handsfree wrote:

generally in tournaments when i find myself in this situation i'd flat call. when the turn comes he probably will give up if he has nothing and if he has a second barrell. you'll just have to decide whether you believe him or not. i'd reraise on the turn. its a bit of a risky move but you can nearly double up with a nothing hand if you get it right, but as rob says if hes that aggressive he would probably check that flop so my guess is that your ahead.

the worse possible way IMO to play this is to flat call his raise.
flat calling his raise leaves me with with 19K in the pot of nearly 30K.
it will literally commit me to the pot with an A high hand.
yeah its great if you get A or a K on turn but what if you don’t and more often than not you don’t.
What if he makes another 7K bet on the turn when it comes blank?
am i going to call? fold? reraise him all in when i have no FE

ianmc38

Gholimoli wrote:

Agree 100% .
if any of them had notes on me then my image would not be Rock to them at all as i don’t play like a rock .however this villain i hadn’t seen before and i didn’t have notes on him so maybe he didn’t have notes on me and he was judging me based on the way i was playing.
i can confidently say i played maybe 4 hands in space of an hour and my stack went from 17K to 13K as i wasn’t playing or trying to steal at all. I was card dead.
Any how what are your thoughts on the hand?

I dont like the flat call, because i think the villain will fire aagin regardless of whetehr he's hit or not.

For me, this is tight, but i'd probably fold it.

handsfree

Gholimoli wrote:

the worse possible way IMO to play this is to flat call his raise.
flat calling his raise leaves me with with 19K in the pot of nearly 30K.
it will literally commit me to the pot with an A high hand.
yeah its great if you get A or a K on turn but what if you don’t and more often than not you don’t.
What if he makes another 7K bet on the turn when it comes blank?
am i going to call? fold? reraise him all in when i have no FE

well it comes down to do you think you ahead.if think are you want to win the most you can. reraiseing here leaves you in pretty much the same spot but because you flat called and then reraised it looks like you've an overpair. its a move that works for me alot. if you think your behind why bother thinking about it just fold

Norwich Fan Rob

dont agree handsfree, if villain fires again on the turn, he wont fold as he will be pot commited at that stage.

These very aggressive villains, who continually fire shells usually trap themselves at a later stage of the tourney, they are not ones to take on without a hand, just because u know they may not have much themselves.

Id usually have a rock like image at this stage of a tourney, and would re raise a good player on this flop, as i would expect to get it through.

But as Culchie said, this guy may not fold the likes of A9, even K9, even 44 perhaps so that makes it very risky.

Against unpredictable player, i think the percentage play is to pass.

ocallagh

horrible situation... First off, a lot of people will say AK missed.. just fold. But that is rubbish IMO, this guy is leaking tells all over the place and you're in a good spot to take a nice pot.

First, determine how he is thinking, and how good he is.

2 options:

1) If he is a good player, he saw weakness in your KJ hand, and he has called you with any 2 to take it on the flop again. I re-raise to 18K, leaving you with 8K behind. A push is weak, but a raise to 18 is perfect. He should pass. If he puts you all in you have to call and hope you hit..!!This option looks unlikely though... I don't think this guy is a good player.

2) If he is a poor player - and unpredictable then you are in trouble. Again, he has called you with any 2 because he is in gambling mode.. He's just got back to 40k after some ridiculous all-ins.. Your image means nothing here. He is firing 7k at that pot regardless of whether he hit or not. If you call I can nearly guarantee he's gonna fire a 2nd bluff on the turn. I would either push or fold on this flop depending on your position in the tournament. If 26K is ok then I fold because you will have a better opportunity to take more chips off him. If this pot is going to leave you short I'd gamble here and push. It's a total gamble on your part.. but remember he only hits a flop one time in 3..

ntlbell

" read on villain: hyper aggressive, refuses to fold after raising a pot pre-flop or when gets involved in a hand."

You've sort of answered this yourself with your own notes/reads.

If he's not letting go you have to fold your behind to too many hands that if he's as aggresive as you say he'll call here with A8,A9 K9,910s? any pp

you can't flat call, you can't push.............................

fold and move on.

The biggest leak in my game was pis$ing away money after the flop with AK.


EDIT:

I just seen ocallagh's post, I'm not advocating folding AK everytime you miss, every situation is different, but this is one I'd be happy to let it go.

handsfree

i wouldn't disagree with you rob but the pot is 21k and you have 26k, the probablity is that this guy bluffing. what ocallagh says is just another variation on what i said because if you think your ahead the chips are going in the middle but i think what i said portrays a stonger hand IMO

Gholimoli

ocallagh wrote:

horrible situation... First off, a lot of people will say AK missed.. just fold. But that is rubbish IMO, this guy is leaking tells all over the place and you're in a good spot to take a nice pot.

First, determine how he is thinking, and how good he is.

1) If he is a good player, he saw weakness in your KJ hand, and he has called you with any 2 to take it on the flop again. I re-raise to 18K, leaving you with 8K behind. A push is weak, but a raise to 18 is perfect. He should pass. This option looks unlikely though... I don't think this guy is a good player. If he puts you all in you have to call and hope you hit..!!

2) If he is a poor player - and unpredictable then you are in trouble. Again, he has called you with any 2 because he is in gambling mode.. He's just got back to 40k after some ridiculous all-ins.. Your image means nothing here. He is firing 7k at that pot regardless of whether he hit or not. If you call I can nearly guarantee he's gonna fire a 2nd bluff on the turn. I would either push or fold on this flop depending on your position in the tournament. If 26K is ok then I fold because you will have a better opportunity to take more chips off him. If this pot is going to leave you short I'd gamble here and push. It's a total gamble on your part.. but remember he only hits a flop one time in 3..

My thinking at the time was :
1.he is a rubbish player. Just aggressive and likes to move people off hands.
Image means nothing to him. Once he gets involved in a raised pot he feels its his pot and will bet and bet until he either bust him self or gets the pot.
Had i folded it would have left me with around 25K to play and i could have played with that stack.
This was my argument for folding.

2. i had folded to his bet on the flop not too long ago and even though he was a donkey he had to notice that im not playing much hands.
he had just came back to 40K and at this stage he had about 35K left ,i felt if i go all in he has to call another 20K which leaves him with just 15K to play at this late stages. I felt seen as i folded to his last bet on the flop ,if i come over the top he will put me on a high PP and fold. also the range of hands i put him on had a high possibility of a dominating A. anything like AQ,AJ,AT etc.
and if he had something like T9s JTs ,22-77 i had two over cards with 6 outs.
if i won the pot i would double up to 67K with chip lead being at 80K this would put me in very good position with being second in chip.
if i took the pot there in would put to around 55K which still a very good position.
this was my argument for pushing.

now based on this what do you think?

Culchie

I'm not suggesting you fold AK every time either to a flop bet by a donkey.

This time I am though.

I think you have only one live card, if my reading of hand is correct. It may be the Ace, it may be the King.

handsfree

if he has nothing and you push he can't call but if your that sure he has nothing try to squeeze him a bit more

Gholimoli

handsfree wrote:

if he has nothing and you push he can't call but if your that sure he has nothing try to squeeze him a bit more

handsfree the problem with what your suggesting is that i dont have the chips to put pressure on him to find out information.if i had another 20BB and was a deep stack then the situation would have been different.
where i am now im either a push or fold stage.
pushing gives me FE that i will not have if i just flat call.
folding gives me my remaining stack to play with.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

the worse possible way IMO to play this is to flat call his raise.
flat calling his raise leaves me with with 19K in the pot of nearly 30K.
it will literally commit me to the pot with an A high hand.
yeah its great if you get A or a K on turn but what if you don’t and more often than not you don’t.
What if he makes another 7K bet on the turn when it comes blank?
am i going to call? fold? reraise him all in when i have no FE

If you think you are ahead then CALL is not that bad a play. Yes it commits you to calling him down with AK, but you might well have the best hand, and he might well have hardly any outs.

If you think that HE has the best hand, AND you can get him off it then push is best.

If you have no idea whats going on, then fold is probably best.

Calling down with AK here is not that bad against this guy

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

If you think you are ahead then CALL is not that bad a play. Yes it commits you to calling him down with AK, but you might well have the best hand, and he might well have hardly any outs.

If you think that HE has the best hand, AND you can get him off it then push is best.

If you have no idea whats going on, then fold is probably best.

Calling down with AK here is not that bad against this guy

it is bad because :
if he has nothing and will fold to a push then calling him down is just giving him a chance to hit.
if he something like a str draw and is on a semibluff then by flat calling him im the one making the mistake not him.

this is a clear push or fold situation simply becuase im not deep.any call or raise on my behlaf leaves me comitted .with a push i have FE that i dont have with a call.

ianmc38

I dont think a set can be ruled out of the equation. I think it has to be a fold. More than likely you're looking at a 3outer or a backdoor flush as youyr only chances. Fold.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

it is bad because :
if he has nothing and will fold to a push then calling him down is just giving him a chance to hit.

If he has nothing and will bluff all his chips off on the turn, then this is just giving him a chance to bluff. If you are a big favourite (which you are if he has AT, or AJ, or KT, or KQ, or whatever), then this is actually a superior play to pushing.

this is a clear push or fold situation simply becuase im not deep.any call or raise on my behlaf leaves me comitted .with a push i have FE that i dont have with a call.

Like I said, if you believe that HE has the best hand AND he will fold, then pushing is good. However, if you believe (like you said) that he has a hand that has missed, and you dominate, then call is superior to push.

I dont think this guy folds JT or T7, so you are wasting your time by trying to get him off his draw, so calling is good Vs his range.

I dont agree that this is push or fold. You have position, and a hand that stands a good chance of being a very strong favourite, and a villain who has proved that he can fire all his chips into the pot with no pair and no draw.

Call is good.

Iago

I'd like to say push but considering I got knocked out of the same tournament when I pushed with AK for 12K after a 3K raise with blinds at 400/800 and was called by 95s maybe you should fold.

Even donkeys get hands sometimes, quite possibly this is one of them.

Gholimoli

Well i gave my though process and all the info i had about the situation.
to be honest i should have folded leaving my self with 25K.
However it was 2am, i was tired, and not folding AK here on a missed flop is one of the biggest leaks in my game.(it was how ever soooooooooooooooooooooooooted).

Knowing the villain was a donkey and incapable of folding i should have let it go. but knowing me and how i love to go bust at the late stages of a tourney i couldn’t make an exception here esp the fact that i didn’t like the villain.

so i pushed and he calls instantly showing:

are you ready for this ?

77. the turn and river was no help to me and i bust in 34th place.

my aim for the near future is to eliminate these mistake from my game and be able to let hand like these go when i know its the right thing to do.
if i just eliminate a few things like that from my game i know i can become a much much better player and actually a decent player.
One day hey...

Norwich Fan Rob

the push here is just too risky against a donkey whos chips we may well get later, giving that its very hard to know if we are ahead, we are basically gambling when we dont need to at this stage of the tourney with our stack size.

(i dont like the call, we have no idea that the AK is good, and as said b4, we lose FE with the call, and give villian the chance to give us another hard decision on the turn)

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

If he has nothing and will bluff all his chips off on the turn, then this is just giving him a chance to bluff. If you are a big favourite (which you are if he has AT, or AJ, or KT, or KQ, or whatever), then this is actually a superior play to pushing.



Like I said, if you believe that HE has the best hand AND he will fold, then pushing is good. However, if you believe (like you said) that he has a hand that has missed, and you dominate, then call is superior to push.

I dont think this guy folds JT or T7, so you are wasting your time by trying to get him off his draw, so calling is good Vs his range.

I dont agree that this is push or fold. You have position, and a hand that stands a good chance of being a very strong favourite, and a villain who has proved that he can fire all his chips into the pot with no pair and no draw.

Call is good.

If I agree that if he has a draw he is not going to fold it. However this does not make calling correct. by flat calling im playing the hand on his terms. if he hits his draw on turn or river and then pushes im going to have to call with A high and I would the one who has made the mistake and not him.
If I had him dominated with a better kicker then he would refuse to fold my push and I would get it all in anyway. however if I did have him dominated and he hits his 3 outer on turn or river and then pushes ,again im going to have to call and I wuld be the one making the mistake.
Regardless of who wins the pot im trying not to make a mistake playing this hand

handsfree

by flat calling your opponent has to give you credit for a hand that equals top pair or better. if he fires again on the turn he would definately fold to a reraise on the turn. you seem to have forgotten that you could cripple this guy if he doubles you through so he would be scared enough to fold on the turn to a reraise. this is a move i use frequently on what i consieve to be continuation bets and i find that it is a lot more effective than a reraise on the flop.

Norwich Fan Rob

as they say, "never bluff a bad player", taking on a guy who has shown an unwillingness to fold with ace high, is definetely -ev in my opinion.

Fuzzbox, i usually agree with your posts, except for your notions that u often like to flat call when i like to fold or push, (we had this b4 in a hand involving 99).

In situations, where u had no idea where u stand, flat calling your op down and hoping your marginal hand is good, really doesnt strike me as the best option, ever, i guess we will have to disagree on this one point.

Norwich Fan Rob

handsfree, the play you describe will never work against this type of player, as shown by him calling the push with 77.

hand representation, aggresive play only works against good players who can read a board.

nut peddling/folding marginals works well against muppet/donkey players.

its vital to know this info about your op b4 deciding on the best course of action in a hand.

handsfree

ok from the villians point of view

preflop raise of 1/5 of the heros stack
villian calls with 77

flop comes 9 8 2 so there are two overs to his hand, the villian makes an raise of 1/7 of his own stack and approx 1/4 of the hero.

hero calls
we dont know what the turn brought but assuming another overcard there is no way that the villian could call a reraise

we have to assume that he has some level of competance seeing that he made it this far in the tournament so i think he would fold here

Gholimoli

handsfree wrote:

by flat calling your opponent has to give you credit for a hand that equals top pair or better. if he fires again on the turn he would definately fold to a reraise on the turn. you seem to have forgotten that you could cripple this guy if he doubles you through so he would be scared enough to fold on the turn to a reraise. this is a move i use frequently on what i consieve to be continuation bets and i find that it is a lot more effective than a reraise on the flop.

By flat calling here im letting the pot get large while not doing anything to eliminate him from the hand.
what happens is that the pot will get so big that he will have the odds to draw to almost anything and by doing so we will not be making a mistake as he is getting the correct odds to draw even if he is on the come.
with a possible str draw on board if i have top pair or better the correct play will still be to push .infact a high PP was what i was trying to represent as if i did have high PP i would push as i don’t want to make is cheap for him to out draw on me.
When the pot gets big the number one priority is to make sure you maximize your chances of winning it.

Norwich Fan Rob

hands if u call on this flop, this villian will move in on the turn, he has form for continually firing, it would be us that couldnt call his large bet on the turn.

read the rest of the threads, you are contradicting most of what is being said.

ntlbell

handsfree wrote:

ok from the villians point of view

preflop raise of 1/5 of the heros stack
villian calls with 77

flop comes 9 8 2 so there are two overs to his hand, the villian makes an raise of 1/7 of his own stack and approx 1/4 of the hero.

hero calls
we dont know what the turn brought but assuming another overcard there is no way that the villian could call a reraise

we have to assume that he has some level of competance seeing that he made it this far in the tournament so i think he would fold here

How deep he is in this can not guarntee any sort of competance, (kanter)

I also disagree with anyone calling the guy a donkey, we don't know him from adam, we don't know what notes he had on gholi we know very little.

Aggresive brave player does not = bad player

Gholimoli

handsfree wrote:

ok from the villians point of view

preflop raise of 1/5 of the heros stack
villian calls with 77

flop comes 9 8 2 so there are two overs to his hand, the villian makes an raise of 1/7 of his own stack and approx 1/4 of the hero.

hero calls
we dont know what the turn brought but assuming another overcard there is no way that the villian could call a reraise

we have to assume that he has some level of competance seeing that he made it this far in the tournament so i think he would fold here

first of call he would be the first to act on the turn.
you can be 99% sure he will make at least half pot bet on the turn.
if he checks then i will have to bet and you can be sure 99% he will call my bet.the fact is he would be making a mistake not to call any future bets because 1)he has the odds 2)he is commited to the pot 3)this player cant fold and esp not to a pot that big and not for another 10K or so bet .

handsfree

i dont know what the turn card is but assuming another overcard in a raised pot if he checks and you go all in he's folding.

ntlbell

gholi what came on 4th/5th just out of curiosity

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

If I agree that if he has a draw he is not going to fold it. However this does not make calling correct. by flat calling im playing the hand on his terms. if he hits his draw on turn or river and then pushes im going to have to call with A high and I would the one who has made the mistake and not him.
If I had him dominated with a better kicker then he would refuse to fold my push and I would get it all in anyway. however if I did have him dominated and he hits his 3 outer on turn or river and then pushes ,again im going to have to call and I wuld be the one making the mistake.
Regardless of who wins the pot im trying not to make a mistake playing this hand

Ok.
If he has a draw like JT, then he will NOT be making a mistake by calling your push.

If he will call with no pair and no draw, then push is fantastic against this guy, so by all means go for it.

There are three possible scenarios

1. You have the best hand by far
2. He has the best hand by far
3. You both have hands that are reasonably close in value

If *you* have the best hand by far, then you should call
If *he* has the best hand by far AND will fold a push, then you should push
If *he* has the best hand by far AND will call a push, then you should fold
If you both have reasonably close hands, but he will move his chips in regardless of the turn card, then you should call.

There is an argument for calling and pushing and folding. All have merit.

It is my belief that -
If you push now, and get called, that you are either a very small favourite, a slight underdog or a big underdog
If you push now, and he folds, that you had the best hand, and you made a mistake by allowing him to get away cheaply
If you call, and he moves-in on the turn, and you call, very often you will be a significant favourite
If you fold, then you can just move on to the next hand.

Gholimoli

ntlbell wrote:

gholi what came on 4th/5th just out of curiosity

dont remember exactly ,i think a 4 on turn and maybe another 8 or 9 on river.

Norwich Fan Rob

8 times out of 10 a good player folds here

8 times out of 10 a stubborn over aggressive player calls here.

thats the bottom line

handsfree, u keep referring to him checking the turn.
he will 99% NOT do this if we call the flop.
he has history for continually betting on every street to take down the pot or go bust.

Fuzz, i would not be confident enough that Ace high is a good enough hand to warrant having to call all my stack off on the turn and river on the chance im ahead, when i have a comfortable stack if i fold now.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

as they say, "never bluff a bad player", taking on a guy who has shown an unwillingness to fold with ace high, is definetely -ev in my opinion.

Fuzzbox, i usually agree with your posts, except for your notions that u often like to flat call when i like to fold or push, (we had this b4 in a hand involving 99).

In situations, where u had no idea where u stand, flat calling your op down and hoping your marginal hand is good, really doesnt strike me as the best option, ever, i guess we will have to disagree on this one point.

Yeah - a lot of ppl have difficulty with this concept.

Should I try to explain the concept again?
It arises in situations where we either have the best hand by a goodly margin, or villain has a reasonable draw, or villain has the best hand

We have ZERO fold equity against those hands that we would like to fold (better hands, and reasonable draws).
We have lots of fold equity against those hands that we are ahead of.

If we decide that we would like to continue in the pot then when we call we gain.

How do we gain?
Well, we can get away on a dangrous turn, if villain fires again (yes this has a small risk of getting us bluffed out)
We can get the money in on a blank turn as a big favourite
We can get more bluff money in on a blank turn when villain views our call as weak.

Thus - we make more money from worse hands, we lose less when obvious draws hit the turn, and villain keeps on betting.

We still lose the SAME amount Vs better hands (but we have judged that we could not get them to fold in any case).

Norwich Fan Rob

fuzz, by calling here u are going to have to most likely put all your chips in here, with ace high, do u really want to do this with a 26k stack going in.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

hands if u call on this flop, this villian will move in on the turn, he has form for continually firing, it would be us that couldnt call his large bet on the turn.

This is why call > push (even with AA here)

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

first of call he would be the first to act on the turn.
you can be 99% sure he will make at least half pot bet on the turn.
if he checks then i will have to bet and you can be sure 99% he will call my bet.the fact is he would be making a mistake not to call any future bets because 1)he has the odds 2)he is commited to the pot 3)this player cant fold and esp not to a pot that big and not for another 10K or so bet .

If he checks the turn, and you are 99% sure that he will call any bet (with any hand?) then you should push and be ready to get called by AQ.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

Fuzz, i would not be confident enough that Ace high is a good enough hand to warrant having to call all my stack off on the turn and river on the chance im ahead, when i have a comfortable stack if i fold now.

I concur. I would fold.

However, I'm not discussing the decision, just the relative merits of the *play* AFTER the decision has been made.

Norwich Fan Rob

fuzz, there is a big diff between having AA here (prob in front) and AK (very good chance behind to 9x or small pair).

With AA i would defintely call the flop and let this guy hang himself on the turn.

With AK, i would fold, as i have no confidence i am in front, and i have no confidence that my op will fold to a push, and i dont want to call him down on every street for all my chips with A high.

RoundTower

Culchie wrote:

I'm not suggesting you fold AK every time either to a flop bet by a donkey.

This time I am though.

I think you have only one live card, if my reading of hand is correct. It may be the Ace, it may be the King.

This is exactly what I thought.

Most of the time he will have one pair and won't fold, I don't think he has an AT type hand often enough here to justify calling him down.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

fuzz, by calling here u are going to have to most likely put all your chips in here, with ace high, do u really want to do this with a 26k stack going in.

If I think I have the best hand then I will.

Norwich Fan Rob

if u keep calling people down on every street with A high, cause of some mystical read that u might be good, and jeopardising a healthy stack, when u could easily wait for a much better opportunity, this is serious -EV play in the long run.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

fuzz, there is a big diff between having AA here (prob in front) and AK (very good chance behind to 9x or small pair).

With AA i would defintely call the flop and let this guy hang himself on the turn.

With AK, i would fold, as i have no confidence i am in front, and i have no confidence that my op will fold to a push, and i dont want to call him down on every street for all my chips with A high.

They are the same if you believe that you are ahead, or if you believe that villain will fold neither a better hand nor a draw.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

if u keep calling people down on every street with A high, cause of some mystical read that u might be good, and jeopardising a healthy stack, when u could easily wait for a much better opportunity, this is serious -EV play in the long run.

I never said that I would play for my stack here. However, if I did decide to do so, then I would call here and call most turns.

Norwich Fan Rob

its not worth risking your 26k healthy stack with A high on some hunch that you might be ahead !!!!

surely any decent tourney player would know that calling down with A high when u may or may not be ahead (and have no clue either way) is not the way to go at this stage of the tourney.

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

its not worth risking your 26k healthy stack with A high on some hunch that you might be ahead !!!!

surely any decent tourney player would know that calling down with A high when u may or may not be ahead (and have no clue either way) is not the way to go at this stage of the tourney.

Against this particular guy, it might well be the best option.

I would fold, but I would consider it strongly against this guy.