Oh Lords of Kobol - please let it snow

darkman2

Well folks, I told you something spectacular may be around the corner. This morning an Easterly is visible on ALL the big models at 144hrs. No cold poooling you may say to our east however there is also a good prospect of a greenland high: GFS,GEM,ECM. To me the synoptic situation for next week shows a fundamental change n the weather is coming.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png GFS 144hrs. It gets better so check out ECM and GEM:)


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500/ ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif GEM 144hrs

UKMO 144hrs: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Met éireann on radio one this morning seem to be going for a northerly initially with much colder conditions and wintry showers in the north and East next week.

WC has a fair point regarding cold pooling being gone in the near continent.
Drawing in air from places in Belgium and Holand and West Germany where temps are either hovering on or near zero would result due to modificaction in temps here of 3-7c at worst.

A northerly though turning northeasterly with a scandy feed would be better.
Or a raging Easterly lasting long enough to drag cold air here from Russia.
You would need a weeks Easterly for that now.
4 or 5 days would have been plenty when the mid january cold pool was as close as Holland.

Interesting synoptics though.

Incidently those charts that darkman2 posted have a northeasterly coming from the right place and next week is not too late tbh.
I havent the time right now to look at potential 850 temps and more importantly surface air temps at the source of that feed but I will add that the charts/runs are on the edge of reliability and will change for either better or worse.
The feed looks slack though and watch barometric pressure-above 1025 is not good for convectivity.

They're probably changing as we speak...

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Earthman I wouldnt worry too much about the cold pool at the moment. The origin has been getting better over the past couple of days and there is no reason to suspect it wont improve further. Patience thats whats needed:D

Or disimprove...
But interesting so far

darkman2

Earthman I wouldnt worry too much about the cold pool at the moment. The origin has been getting better over the past couple of days and there is no reason to suspect it wont improve further. Patience thats whats needed:D

ninebeanrows

OMG stop! your gonna jinx it! good god did you not see my post!

All this will amount too wil be 3-4 days of cool weather temperatures
of 4-8c with some slight ground frosts...

Winters over....... roll on Spring:mad:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

OMG stop! your gonna jinx it! good god did you not see my post!

All this will amount too wil be 3-4 days of cool weather temperatures
of 4-8c with some slight ground frosts...

Winters over....... roll on Spring:mad:

Lets hope it snows everywhere but Raheny;) OK I will stop.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

OMG stop! your gonna jinx it! good god did you not see my post!

All this will amount too wil be 3-4 days of cool weather temperatures
of 4-8c with some slight ground frosts...

Winters over....... roll on Spring:mad:

Yes I agree

It's going to get very hot next week with temps often in the 30's (celcius) and approaching the 40's (celcius) the following week.
Temps on the rise from now on with absolutely no precipitation at all.
It fact its going to be oh so dry...

http://www.svik.org/images/ilabed.jpg

darkman2

Cracking ECM on wz:D http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Yes but you need a cold feed
Present source of that air is not cold enough

There simply must be a prolonged feed with a back up of artic air.

Look for and post signs of this.

The truth is out there

darkman2

Earthman, IMO that source is actually far colder then the GFS 00z. The air bieng pushed from the Artic north of Scandi is amplfied and driven southward before beginning the journey east. Its a classic long term Easterly (up to a week or more), the Atlantic held well at bay whilst the Newfoundland low is being pused up East of Greenland. And this is very significant because this is the Greenland high. If, and I stress if, we could establish the high the flow would turn NEasterly and the fun begins:D

Also NCEP is having problems so no 6z for a while. Maybe its so cold........;)

ninebeanrows

In all fairness all the models and even the coldest models are showing
is 3-4 days at most of temperatures of 4-8c with some light rain/hail
showers on eastern coasts and some nightime frosts...

:rolleyes: :mad:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

In all fairness all the models and even the coldest models are showing
is 3-4 days at most of temperatures of 4-8c with some light rain/hail
showers on eastern coasts and some nightime frosts...

:rolleyes: :mad:

You must be having a laugh. The GFS is overcooking temps. They will not reach 8 C in the flow envisaged by any of the big models. Lets get more runs in and then the situation will be clearer. I see potential for snow, but thats all it is:)

ninebeanrows

Looking at the edges of FI

I see

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

Which looks good but it relates to these ground temps
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

then
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

Looking any further than this is abdolutely pointless even looking
at the 138hr charts is looking for trouble..

4-7/8c.. Thats average for February, nothign spectacular nothing even cold.:rolleyes:

continuing wc's reverse psychology...
The 06z is out now and early next week , theres no northeasterly,it continues to get much warmer

darkman2

Greenland high alert:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:



Very interesting weather ahead.

SpitfireIV

Oh no! Its all starting again....hmm, I might as well jump on board :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

From Metcheck:

"However, a pattern change is on the way and that pattern change is likely to bring the return to colder conditions across the UK by late Sunday and then more significantly into next week. Some uncertainty remains over the specific detail of next week, but confidence is growing for winter to make a return, so don't put those winter woolies away just yet!"

I'm only setting myself up for a big fall........but anyway

CroppyBoy1798

darkman2

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh no! Its all starting again....hmm, I might as well jump on board :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

From Metcheck:

"However, a pattern change is on the way and that pattern change is likely to bring the return to colder conditions across the UK by late Sunday and then more significantly into next week. Some uncertainty remains over the specific detail of next week, but confidence is growing for winter to make a return, so don't put those winter woolies away just yet!"

I'm only setting myself up for a big fall........but anyway

CroppyBoy1798

Probrably not. Thge GH developes between 144 - 150 on this run. Certainly a runner:D

ninebeanrows

Any cold weather is left in the distant realms of FI not surprising really!

Mild weather all the way in the realistic timeframes so lets not even bother!

I certainly amnt looking forward to 3-4 days of temperatures of 5-8c in
7 days time..

Roll on Spring.. its in the air now anyway shouldnt be too long until we
start seeing the Daffs come into flower and warm sunny weekends:)

Ah yes Spring is on its way

(sorry WC)

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn2402.png





















(Yes I know it way out in FI and I know thats tea leave territory but hey its nice to look at anyway)

darkman2

At the very least next week will be VERY interesting and may well bring the concept of the 'modern winter' to its knees. These are the most dramatic charts in a reasonable timeframe in years. So enjoy them:D

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

At the very least next week will be VERY interesting and may well bring the concept of the 'modern winter' to its knees. These are the most dramatic charts in a reasonable timeframe in years. So enjoy them:D

Even level-headed WC and non reserve physcology WC would disagree with
you... your getting carried away by the boat.. by the coaster on the roller..

Its gonna be warm next week mild southerlies pumping hot weather from
the Sahara..:mad:

SpitfireIV

I think Earthman and WeatherCheck have switched places

You're being fierce optomistic Earthman.....I like that

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Even level-headed WC and non reserve physcology WC would disagree with
you... your getting carried away by the boat.. by the coaster on the roller..

Its gonna be warm next week mild southerlies pumping hot weather from
the Sahara..:mad:

You off to the med on holiday;)

ninebeanrows

6z was a massive cold outlier..

cool spell now looks like lasting 3 days before the mild plume pushes
up from the south..... roll on spring

who wants temps of 5-8c for three days and some sleety rain showers??:mad:

Only 13 days till spring:cool:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

6z was a massive cold outlier..

cool spell now looks like lasting 3 days before the mild plume pushes
up from the south..... roll on spring

who wants temps of 5-8c for three days and some sleety rain showers??:mad:

Only 13 days till spring:cool:

It is not a massive cold outlier. It has good support till the 25th.

Now I refuse to get sucked in...

But the 12 z has -8 850 air over Dublin south to wexford and inland to about laois down to Carlow on Tuesday just on the edge of reliability.

It's giving us our own cold pool

CroppyBoy1798

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

I think Earthman and WeatherCheck have switched places

You're being fierce optomistic Earthman.....I like that

Nah.

I'm being realistic.
I'm just giving a view on the output.

The 12z is giving Eastern Ireland a cold pool of -8c 850 air in a strong NE wind with pressure at 1020 or below.
That would be cold but the showers would be lightish I think.
Bring pressure down to 1015 and you would have decent shower activity with that cold air rushing down the Irish sea.

Country file on BBC one on sunday and the RTE version of it should be interesting.

3 cold runs in a row with this probably the coldest.
Last time that happened, it was all down graded by sunday and the Atlantic came back.

darkman2

Plenty of chopping and changing to go. I want to note the Low coming from the north into Russia could introduce an exceptionally cold feed later on from the Easterly. Excellent charts, truly excellent. And the Greenland high aint far away for backup;)

-8 air is well established on this run by wenesday with -9c 850 air flirting with the south east coast (but now that is at least 2 days into FI)

That would see temps above freezing on the East coast but no higher than maybe 2 or 3 c Maxima with 0 c or below on high ground and well inland.
It sees lower pressure too, stronger winds and more instability.
It could develop into a very snowy period especially for Eastern areas.

This is bound to change as its FI but if it doesnt, it's going to be a very very interesting week ahead.

ninebeanrows

Who wants some coolish average days! when we are at the stage where mild sunny warm days are possible. Who wants cool days 5-8c with some light
cold rain showers for like 3-4 days. Come off it..

Spring is coming lets just forget about winter for another year..

It has been abysmal to say the least:mad:

SPRING SPRING SPRING:cool:

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

Who wants some coolish average days! when we are at the stage where mild sunny warm days are possible. Who wants cool days 5-8c with some light
cold rain showers for like 3-4 days. Come off it..

Spring is coming lets just forget about winter for another year..

It has been abysmal to say the least:mad:

SPRING SPRING SPRING:cool:

I'm afraid its not a case of what we want WC, but what we get and it this stage it looks like it could be anything.

CroppyBoy1798

darkman2

Bad news, the ECM has come up with a terrible run. Id imagine its a mild outlier but I doubt we will have access to the ensembles. JMA and UKMO are very good runs tonight:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Bad news, the ECM has come up with a terrible run. Id imagine its a mild outlier but I doubt we will have access to the ensembles. JMA and UKMO are very good runs tonight:)

well I did say...

Earthman wrote:

This is bound to change as its FI but if it doesnt, it's going to be a very very interesting week ahead.

Scubadevils

Is it, as always, going pear shaped before it ever became a peach :rolleyes:

At this stage I really will believe when its actually snowing, there have been far too many let downs this winter. Every time its been "really is looking good this time (7 days out), downgrading a bit but still potential (5 days), looks like it might just be chilly with some frost (2 days)...actual, as per 2 days

ECM looks fine to me,now that I've seen it..
Darkman2 has his wires crossed

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006021612!!/

copy and paste that into your address bar

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

ECM looks fine to me,now that I've seen it..
Darkman2 has his wires crossed

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006021612!!/

copy and paste that into your address bar

The ECM is anything but fine EM. It developes the high to far east and allows a depression in the Atlantic come too close for comfort. The source there is not good really at all. No GH influence. We need a Greenland high. As I said though, probrably on the milder side of the ensembles.

Ach
That air source is ENE.
Look closely again at it bearing in mind that...
ECM diagram artistry when it comes to definition was never great.

The air you are worried about dives down into France whereas our feed though slacker is not sourced in southern Europe its sourced in NW Russia-provided the set up remains the same.

lucernarian

I was away for a couple of days and this is what I come back to:eek:

Fun times are ahead but I dislike the confidence shown in the models and also the temps predicted aren't anything to go outside jumping about for joy (in artic clothing of course:D).

darkman2

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I was away for a couple of days and this is what I come back to:eek:

Fun times are ahead but I dislike the confidence shown in the models and also the temps predicted aren't anything to go outside jumping about for joy (in artic clothing of course:D).

Lots of runs to go yet:)

ninebeanrows

ok ok but remember it can go pear-shaped in minutes.. 1 run can scupper
it all you wait for the ensembles for comfort and bang its gone......

You cant be displacent.. dont let your guard down... honestly
you really have to be strong..

Its looking great but be prepared at any minute for a huge huge let-down.

Dont expect anything more than a few wintry showers and perhaps a dusting
of snow from this that melts during the day, because even if the synoptics
do occur that is what you'll probly get..

Years of winter watching and snow watch have made me a bitter man!

I hope that changes come March but i dont think it will..

Lets hope we'll see a few inches of snow lying on the ground for the
first time in years.. here's hoping:cool:

Danno

Hmmm, yet again - it snows in the last week of February! I have seen this EVERY year.

ninebeanrows

i told ya i told ya.. i sed sumtin remotely optimistic and bang whoosh its gone!!:mad: :mad: :mad:

Flippin typical awful ensembles my first forecast was right 3 days of 5-8c
maxima some sleety rain..

Fup this truly bring on spring:rolleyes: :mad: :mad: :mad:

EARTHMAN

Oh I wouldnt dispair (yet) WC.
Whatever we get will have little to do with what we type here

All we are doing is commenting on the output.
I havent the time to look at this mornings as it comes out,but I'll look later.

Anyhow heres something I posted in another place (:D) this morning which I think is an interesting observation based on the 00z.

EARTHMAN wrote:

Just following on from what I think artic bob posted in the last thread regarding European snow cover affecting the surface air source.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rz500m7.gif

At first glance that chart doesnt look as good as what it shows as the source goes all the way back down through Turkey towards the Med.
Normally that should eventually mean a mild Easterly.

But But (and this is where you have got the disappointing track of the previous bout of cold moscow air into Athens to thank)

All of that track is under snow cover and some of it quite deep snow cover,which means cold surface air temps-see here and compare it with the track of the wind source http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowAFnh.gif

That may not be the case at the very start of the feed eventually but a suffecient snow track there I think to make warm modification of this source difficult.
Thats good folks.

ninebeanrows

Is this the spectacular event darkman was talking about yesterday?



I realise how hard it is not to get sucked in but you must remember that
it is destined for failure like every weather event. The GFS handling of
the situation is awful or even abysmal and same with pretty much all
models, looking past 96hrs when forecasting is ridiculus especially
when our country can be affectedted by very slight changes in synoptic.

I know it sounds ridiculus but for me without total and absolute total
Ensembles agreement i dont place the synoptic predicted as
the likely outcome.

Now my forecast from yesterday or the day before will proved to be correct
3-4 days with temps of 4-8c with some light sleet/rain showers and
some night frosts.:) See being realistic is the way to go or else your
just looking for a major disappointment time and time again..

Winter will be truely over after this and so maybe this is a lesson for
next winter:)

LoL

That run is an outlier at the other side of the ensemble just like the last one was at the opposite end.

But if its not,I'd agree with you.

One point to add regarding my last point,that snow cover over Europe was not there this time last year so the previous runs are what you need.

darkman2

Excellent charts. Snow is becoming more likely. Its the Greenland high we have to keep an eye on. Once its there we cant go wrong:D

UKMO latest:

Cold weather set to return




17 February 2006

The mild weather the UK has been experiencing over recent days looks set to end.

Latest Met Office forecasts indicate that much colder conditions are expected to return to most parts of the country from the north-east. Eastern areas of the UK are likely to see the coldest conditions, with wintry showers at times, but all areas will experience overnight frosts.

Keith Groves, Head of Forecasting at the Met Office said: "Recently we have seen daytime temperatures in double figures, but in a few days time some places will be struggling to get above 2 or 3 °C. Brisk winds from the north-east will make it feel even colder. Eastern areas are also likely to see a covering of snow, especially over higher ground."

At this stage it seems likely that the colder weather will continue until the end of the month. Latest forecasts are always available via national and regional TV and radio as well as the web. The public are advised to check weather and travel conditions, especially when planning journeys during times of severe weather.

I reckon even this is conservative.

Regarding over there but pertinent to here

Nice press release

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

I reckon even this is conservative.

Oh I'd say so.

Now a challenge for you -put up the charts from this time last year and compare them with these.

I suspect that theres more cold available and that the HP is in a better position-but I dont have the time today to look.
I know I got a nice (but measly) 2 inch covering this time last year.I'd be expecting at least that again this year - Regardless 2000ft ASL is only 4 miles from me, so I'll head up there in the 4wd and with the camera as I reckon conditions there by mid week next week could be very exciting.

ninebeanrows

im really disappointed that you and earthman have gotten sucked in once
again to yet anothe rmassive disappointment, i saw it coming ages ago
it was always going to happen even at this stage.

Im very glad i didnt get sucked into this and its payed of well.

The 6z put a dampener on things and the 12z is nothing short
of a disaster high pressure anchored on top of us...

Supercell

Snow in England, some sleety stuff here apart from well inland and at elavation, if anything settles in Dublin its will be for a couple of hours and will certainly be gone by the afternoon..too late in the season for us here, still would be nice to see some snow this year!!