Anybody worried about the Bird Flu creeping towards Ireland?

boardy

It is not the actual Bird Flu (which will hit Ireland very soon) that I am worried about but the supposed pandemic that will follow if the flu crosses into a human-to-human transmission.

Will it be our Armageddon?
As it is a constantly mutating virus, will it be worse than the great flu pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused an estimated 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide?

From http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/:Laboratory studies have demonstrated that isolates from this virus have a high pathogenicity and can cause severe disease in humans.

I am not one to worry too much about impending doom, but this is kind of scary.

More info at:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

The War Dept.

Yeah, fair enough it's a bit scary, but in another context, look at the world and show me the places of sanity, if the flu dosen't get us i think there are loads of other things that could, like dick chaney !! :-)

boardy

I understand that humanity has other issues to contend with .... wars, famine etc., but I was thinking more of an unstoppable pandemic happening (in the right set of circumstances), which is really a possibility.

For example, the rapid destruction in 1997 of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population, estimated at around 1.5 million birds, reduced opportunities for further direct transmission to humans (after the deaths of 6 people), and may have averted a pandemic.

dalk

boardy wrote:

Will it be our Armageddon?

In the US, the 1918 flu infected 28% of all Americans and had a mortality rate of 2.5% (compared to less than .1% for a "normal" flu at the time).

So, if the avian flu does mutate to become human to human transmissable, the question is, are you feeling lucky? Well are you punk? :eek:

To be honest, theres not much point worrying about it unless it actually does mutate.

turbot

I'm not worried. Not in the slightest.

And I've been having fun when people at work, etc, blow their nose and say they are having trouble shaking their cold by asking them if they may have, some how, contracted birdflu, then thinking up elaborate ways that might have happened....

"well you did eat in this cafe, right? and they have foreign waitresses? perhaps you caught birdflu unwittingly, because one of their friends recently travelled from an infected part of the world."

BTW, patrick holford, the UK nutritionist, suggests that you can probably avoid birdflu by taking decent quantities of vitamin C.

Thomas_S_Hunterson

Stop watching Sky news and Fox and CNN and CNBC

hepcat

Not a good time to be a poultry farmer.

esskay

there are 83 million people in Vietnam and how many died????? approx 40

boardy

The point that I am trying to get across is not fear of the Bird Flu itself but the mutation into a deadly superbug because of its proliferation around the globe. This particular strain of the virus may evolve to the worse case scenario, in which more than 92 million people will become ill in the U.S. alone in the space of four months.

So far the virus has been jumping from birds to humans, but scientists believe it is just a matter of time before it learns how to transmit from human to human.

RobEire

I would imagine that the opportunity for this virus to mutate into a human to human transmissable form is much less here in Ireland than in the likes of Turkey and Asia. I would hazard that if it has not already happened there it is not likely to happen here.

The loss of wildfowl and the potential impact on the poultry industry is more worrying.

Sleepy

Not in the slightest.

You know what does worry me though? The prospect that if a single person infected with Ebola ever managed to board a commercial airliner, experts reckon that the spread of contamination would be unstoppable and would wipe out over 90% of the population. Now that's fúcking scary.

blahblah1234

I think it will cause deaths and yes worldwide, but not millions. As recently heard 25% of our population has enough vaccine to prevent that from happening, and more is being produced as we speak. America i.e A very advanced society, much more advanced since the early 20th Century will make many steps to reduce it as much as possible. The EU are working together to help prevent it from getting worse.

Between the next 6-12 months, the problem will be dramatically reduced if not gone, that's the reality. From every serious problem in the past, it has been cured, as previously mentioned, we ( the world ), are a far more advanced society and this problem won't get out of our hands, several million people won't die because of this.

I believe the biggest impact will be associated with poultry etc. The problem has yet to mutate into humans, so currently it's a ' Bird Problem '.

Moriarty

(I'm not involved with medicine in one way or another, but there's a bunch of stuff I've spotted here I just want to take up..)

Sleepy wrote:

You know what does worry me though? The prospect that if a single person infected with Ebola ever managed to board a commercial airliner, experts reckon that the spread of contamination would be unstoppable and would wipe out over 90% of the population. Now that's fúcking scary.

Which experts exactly? There has, possibly, been a single airborne transmission of ebola out of all documented cases of infection. Even that single case is not proven. The only way people contract ebola at the moment is through eating infected meat or contact with bodily fluids from another infected person. You're not likely to do either on a plane.

blahblah1234 wrote:

I think it will cause deaths and yes worldwide, but not millions. As recently heard 25% of our population has enough vaccine to prevent that from happening, and more is being produced as we speak.

There is no vaccine for any future human-transmissable bird flu. Not one. What you heard about is the stockpiling of generic anti-viral drugs. There's a fair amount of doubt as to whether they'll even be any use, since the current bird flu adapted quickly when patients were treated with it over the past few months in Asia. As far as I remember, a number of people that were infected and treated with anti-viral drugs still died.

It will take at least 4 months from the begining of a human outbreak before a vaccine will be developed to combat the virus. It would be many years before there would be enough vaccine created to protect even the populations of western countries, since there just isn't the capacity in the vaccine production industry to handle such a demand.

blahblah1234 wrote:

America i.e A very advanced society, much more advanced since the early 20th Century will make many steps to reduce it as much as possible. The EU are working together to help prevent it from getting worse.

Between the next 6-12 months, the problem will be dramatically reduced if not gone, that's the reality. From every serious problem in the past, it has been cured, as previously mentioned, we ( the world ), are a far more advanced society and this problem won't get out of our hands, several million people won't die because of this.

We still have very few treatment methods for viral infections. You only need to take a look at HIV (another virus) to see how difficult it can be to treat, never mind eliminate.

Tar.Aldarion

Moriarty wrote:

Which experts exactly? There has, possibly, been a single airborne transmission of ebola out of all documented cases of infection. Even that single case is not proven. The only way people contract ebola at the moment is through eating infected meat or contact with bodily fluids from another infected person. You're not likely to do either on a plane.

Maybe it's since if you get ebola, you will be bleeding all over the shop, somebody will rush over to help and possibly contaminate themselves...but it's at a stretch I would imagine...

GuanYin

1. Ebola is transmitted through body fluids. You have a high probability of infection through blood or semen or fecal matter (which will most likely contain blood), you have moderate chance of infection through vaginal or repiratory secretions and saliva (most likely though blood again).

2. We have no vaccine against bird flu, the current anti-flu therapies are useless and its unlikely that there will be any reasonably effective treatment for any viral panademic before things get nasty.

3. That said, the chance of human-human bird flu transmission occuring is slim. Remember SARS? Remember how paniced everyone was? Remember how it all turned out to be over-hyped by the media?

Same thing here.

Sleepy

That'll learn me to believe everything I see on Discovery...

boardy

Moriarty wrote:

There is no vaccine for any future human-transmissable bird flu. Not one. What you heard about is the stockpiling of generic anti-viral drugs.

Ergo my mild sense of alarm when I started this thread. The general public gets the 'feel good' effect of hearing that we have these huge stockpiles of anti-viral drugs, which in reality are useless. But hey, it's a good sound bite for the politicians who appear on television to assure us that all is well. If we have people on trolleys in our hospitals at the moment, how in God’s name are we going to cope with a catastrophe like this?

I wonder when HIV first appeared on the scene, were similar warnings dismissed.

By the way, more than 21 million people have died from AIDS/HIV since 1981. And currently, over 40 million people has the infection:
http://www.avert.org/worldstats.htm

And the agrument that we are an advanced society and therefore will be able to conquer this threat does not hold true either. Look what's happened with the overuse of antibiotics: the more antibiotics used, the more the bacteria evolve.

redman

Stop worrying, it won't do you any good.

What will be will be.

Enjoy your life today and everyday.

Look out the window and enjoy now.





(anyway - it'll be a meteor from space that'll get us first and wipe us out)

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

Ergo my mild sense of alarm when I started this thread. The general public gets the 'feel good' effect of hearing that we have these huge stockpiles of anti-viral drugs, which in reality are useless.

Actually, health officials and governement reps have been saying all along that these drugs are useless, its the media that has been promoting them.

But hey, it's a good sound bite for the politicians who appear on television to assure us that all is well.

At the moment, all is well.

If we have people on trolleys in our hospitals at the moment, how in God’s name are we going to cope with a catastrophe like this?

Just as a matter of interest, do you think its a particularly intelligent move to take someone with a suspected flu and putting them in a building full of sick, old, young or disabled people, most of whom will already have a weakened immune system?

In the midst of an epidemic, the *LAST* place you want infectees with something like Bird Flu or SARS or the like is near a hospital full of immuno-compromised people.
Seeing as there is no treatment or therapy either, the best bet is to isolate infectees in their homes and give them conventional treatments.

Basically your point is moot.

I wonder when HIV first appeared on the scene, were similar warnings dismissed.

Oddly enough no, they dismissed it as a disease specific to homosexuals, african americans, sinners...the wrath of god and all that.

HIV is a very very different disease to Bird flu on an epidemiological scale. Plus the key point is, HIV actually exists, human-human transmissible bird flu doesn't.

By the way, more than 21 million people have died from AIDS/HIV since 1981. And currently, over 40 million people has the infection:
http://www.avert.org/worldstats.htm

Go look up the figures for malaria deaths. Several people have died of it by the time you finish reading this post.

It has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

And the agrument that we are an advanced society and therefore will be able to conquer this threat does hold true either. Look what's happened with the overuse of antibiotics: the more antibiotics used, the more the bacteria evolve.

No, the misuse of antibiotics lead to antibiotic resistant strains. There are non-antibiotic therapies in development anyway, Tolvamer Sodium looks set to pass Phase 3 clinical trials which will make a big difference.

We are an advanced society, but anyone who thinks we can "conquer disease" is naive and ignorant of the facts at hand. The microbes we fight have been around alot longer than us, are far more highly adapted than we are (if there was such thing as a trans-species an evolutionary scale, they'd be far above us) and they'll be around long after we're gone.

boardy

psi wrote:

At the moment, all is well.

News update:
Dead Duck found in France .......................

with the H5N1 strain.

psi wrote:

Just as a matter of interest, do you think its a particularly intelligent move to take someone with a suspected flu and putting them in a building full of sick, old, young or disabled people, most of whom will already have a weakened immune system?

In the midst of an epidemic, the *LAST* place you want infectees with something like Bird Flu or SARS or the like is near a hospital full of immuno-compromised people.
Seeing as there is no treatment or therapy either, the best bet is to isolate infectees in their homes and give them conventional treatments.

Basically your point is moot.

So you are saying that everyone that will get infected with this mutation (when it happens) will stay at home and not flock (excuse the pun) to our hospitals. I do not believe that this will happen. My point is that we do not have the facilities to cope and I do not think that it is moot.

psi wrote:

No, the misuse of antibiotics lead to antibiotic resistant strains.

No to what? "No" to the more antibiotics used, the more the bacteria evolve? Doesn't an anitbiotic resistant strain = an evolved bacteria.

psi wrote:

We are an advanced society, but anyone who thinks we can "conquer disease" is naive and ignorant of the facts at hand. The microbes we fight have been around alot longer than us, are far more highly adapted than we are (if there was such thing as a trans-species an evolutionary scale, they'd be far above us) and they'll be around long after we're gone.

We can agree on this.

redman wrote:

(anyway - it'll be a meteor from space that'll get us first and wipe us out)

Now, that's the way I want to go. It beats sneezing myself to death.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

News update:
Dead Duck found in France .......................

with the H5N1 strain.

So, lots of animals die from lots of diseases. Yes it's dangerous to humans and yes birds moving don't help, but unless someone with a compatable human flu strain comes into contact with a H5N1 infected bird during the transmissible stage *AND* the viruses manage to interact in a specific way, we have nothing to worry about.

Its a big ask for that to happen and if it was as likely as you seem to think, then we'd be getting sick from ALOT more diseases than we currently do.

So you are saying that everyone that will get infected with this mutation (when it happens) will stay at home and not flock (excuse the pun) to our hospitals. I do not believe that this will happen. My point is that we do not have the facilities to cope and I do not think that it is moot.

You haven't a clue what you are talking about. The "when it happens " comment just shows how ignorant you are of the facts of the matter.

I'm saying that people *will* rush to hospitals and I'm also saying they shouldn't. I'm pretty sure that hospitals will also issue a directive to turn people away unless they are in a severe state.

This is how it should be. Yes it will stretch our healthcare workers, but no the number of hospital beds will have no bearing.

No to what? "No" to the more antibiotics used, the more the bacteria evolve? Doesn't an anitbiotic resistant strain = an evolved bacteria.

No antibiotics didn't just stop working. The people who are to blame for that are the patients and to some degree the doctors for lighly making use of them. "Evolved" is a very mis-understood and oft mis-used word, in this case the word is mutated, not evolved.

is_that_so

Dr Kevin Kelleher from the HSE on Morning Ireland said that they could potentially expect up to 200,000 cases when the virus mutates. This explains the story of the HSE not being able to cope. At the moment they have enough flu vaccines for 18% of the population and are aiming to get enough for 25% of us. They are also looking at ways to avoid the "rush" to hospital by by making vaccine available from GPS and clinics.

He also pointed out that flu pandemics occur every 30 years or so and we are overdue. He did give a timeline of up to 10 years for this thing to appear, but it will. The mutated version could possibly kill 5,000 people.

GuanYin

is_that_so wrote:

Dr Kevin Kelleher from the HSE on Morning Ireland said that they cou;d potentially expect up to 200,000 cases when the virus mutates. This explains the story of the HSE not being able to cope. At the moment they have enough flu vaccines for 18% of the population and are aiming to get enough for 25% of us. They are also looking at ways to avoid the "rush" to hospital by by making vaccine available from GPS and clinics.

He also pointed out that flu pandemics occur every 30 years or so and we are overdue. He did give a timeline of up to 10 years for this thing to appear, but it will. The mutated version could possibly kill 5,000 people.

Actually he quite specifically pointed out that the current bird flu threat isn't likely to be transmitted from bird to person in Ireland - mainly because its the conditions in the countries where this has occured that contributes.

There may well be a flu panademic but its unlikely to be the one the media is harping on about.

boardy

psi wrote:

So, lots of animals die from lots of diseases. Yes it's dangerous to humans and yes birds moving don't help, but unless someone with a compatable human flu strain comes into contact with a H5N1 infected bird during the transmissible stage *AND* the viruses manage to interact in a specific way, we have nothing to worry about.

Maybe you should have read the first few lines that I wrote when I started this thread:
"It is not the actual Bird Flu (which will hit Ireland very soon) that I am worried about but the supposed pandemic that will follow if the flu crosses into a human-to-human transmission."

psi wrote:

You haven't a clue what you are talking about. The "when it happens " comment just shows how ignorant you are of the facts of the matter.

Why are you so angry?
I am saying that in my opinion the conditions will exist for a human to human transmission of this mutation to occur. And I am not the only one to think this:

"So far, spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare and has not continued beyond one person. Nonetheless, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that H5N1 virus one day could be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population." (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm)

psi wrote:

I'm saying that people *will* rush to hospitals and I'm also saying they shouldn't. I'm pretty sure that hospitals will also issue a directive to turn people away unless they are in a severe state.

I have the feeling that if a person feels that they have contracted this virus, then they will be in a severe state.

psi wrote:

Evolved" is a very mis-understood and oft mis-used word, in this case the word is mutated, not evolved.

When I did a search on antibiotic resistant strains, the word 'evolve' was used in many reports. They are probably using it incorrectly. I only used it when talking about antibiotics and bacteria.

You may feel that I haven't a clue and ignorant of the facts. That is your opinion. But let's try to keep it a cordial discussion so that we can all learn about this intriguing topic.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

Maybe you should have read the first few lines that I wrote when I started this thread:
"It is not the actual Bird Flu (which will hit Ireland very soon) that I am worried about but the supposed pandemic that will follow if the flu crosses into a human-to-human transmission."

Yup and I'm saying that there are far greater issues that we can and should all worry about that are, frankly, more likely.

Were you worried that SARS would make it to Ireland? If not, why not? If so, why and what did you feel when it didn't?

Why are you so angry?

Who says I'm angry, I'm merely stating my opinion.

I am saying that in my opinion the conditions will exist for a human to human transmission of this mutation to occur. And I am not the only one to think this:

"So far, spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare and has not continued beyond one person. Nonetheless, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that H5N1 virus one day could be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population." (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm)

Now, I know I'm not a native english speaker, but I'm pretty sure that "will" and "could" are quite different opinions.

I have the feeling that if a person feels that they have contracted this virus, then they will be in a severe state.

By severe state I mean medically, not emotionally. When a panademic emerges, often the biggest issue is separating the infected from he paniced. Most of the people who run to hospitals won't be infectees.

When I did a search on antibiotic resistant strains, the word 'evolve' was used in many reports. They are probably using it incorrectly. I only used it when talking about antibiotics and bacteria.

And the internet is right about everything?

You may feel that I haven't a clue and ignorant of the facts. That is your opinion. But let's try to keep it a cordial discussion so that we can all learn about this intriguing topic.

I am being civil, I'm merely expressing my opinon, based on what you've presented, if you feel its emotive, thats you opinion, but it is also an incorrect one.

boardy

psi wrote:

Were you worried that SARS would make it to Ireland? If not, why not? If so, why and what did you feel when it didn't?

That's a whole different thread altogether. Why don't you start that one.

psi wrote:

Now, I know I'm not a native english speaker, but I'm pretty sure that "will" and "could" are quite different opinions.

o.k. How about this:
"There is no doubt there will be another pandemic," Klaus Stohr of the WHO Global Influenza Program said on the sidelines of a regional bird flu meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.

psi wrote:

And the internet is right about everything?

I was referring to medical journals on the web.

psi wrote:

I am being civil, I'm merely expressing my opinon, based on what you've presented, if you feel its emotive, thats you opinion, but it is also an incorrect one.

You are being civil?:

psi wrote:

You haven't a clue what you are talking about. The "when it happens " comment just shows how ignorant you are of the facts of the matter.

Wouldn't want to be around you when you are angry then.

What kind of response did you expect to elicit when you said that I haven't a clue what I'm talking about and ignornant of the facts? I have not seen your posts elsewhere so I do not know if this is how you regularly speak to other people.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

That's a whole different thread altogether. Why don't you start that one.

Its pretty relevant right here. Its an example of people worried about an alleged threat. You brough in HIV, SARS is a far more reasonable comparison.

Why are you avoiding answering it?

o.k. How about this:
"There is no doubt there will be another pandemic," Klaus Stohr of the WHO Global Influenza Program said on the sidelines of a regional bird flu meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.

Can you show me the bit wher ehe says it will be H5N1?

I agree, there will be another flu panademic. I also would agree with an assertion that the earth will experience another meteor impact derived mass extinction. Its not really backing up your assertion that H5N1 will mutate to a human contagion.

I was referring to medical journals on the web.

Can you cite me a few, journal name, volume, date and author please, just so I can have a look for myself?

You are being civil?:

Yes

Wouldn't want to be around you when you are angry then.

Thats your business.

What kind of response did you expect to elicit when you said that I haven't a clue what I'm talking about and ignornant of the facts? I have not seen your posts elsewhere so I do not know if this is how you regularly speak to other people.

You haven't a clue, based on your posts. You make statements about the current bird flu mutating and becoming a human contagion and try backthis up with alleged references, but not one of your references actually backs up what you are stating. You also conveniently dismiss the point on SARS having previously tried to use HIV to re-enforce your argument.

You haven't a notion of what you're talking about.

boardy

psi wrote:

Its pretty relevant right here. Its an example of people worried about an alleged threat. You brough in HIV, SARS is a far more reasonable comparison.
Why are you avoiding answering it?

If I wanted to talk about SARS, I would have created the thread:
Anybody worried about SARS creeping towards Ireland?

psi wrote:

Can you cite me a few, journal name, volume, date and author please, just so I can have a look for myself?

You are being petty because I used the word ‘evolve’ when talking about antibiotics and bacteria. Here are a couple of references (of many):

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/320/7229/199?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=%22bacteria+evolve%22&andorexactfulltext=and&searchid=1140257797330_1119&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=relevance&resourcetype=1

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/315/7105/383?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=%22bacteria+evolve%22&andorexactfulltext=and&searchid=1140257797330_1119&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=relevance&resourcetype=1

psi wrote:

You haven't a clue, based on your posts. You make statements about the current bird flu mutating and becoming a human contagion and try backthis up with alleged references, but not one of your references actually backs up what you are stating. You also conveniently dismiss the point on SARS having previously tried to use HIV to re-enforce your argument.

You haven't a notion of what you're talking about.

My argument is that the more the virus spreads, the greater the chance H5N1 will mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans. NEWSALERT: I did not come up with this notion.
So you can continue to call me clueless and ignorant but it has been in the public domain for some time. I am only conveying this message so please don't shoot me (the messenger). For example:

“A worst-case scenario bird flu pandemic could wipe US$4.4 trillion off global economic output and kill more than 140 million people, according to an Australian report on the macroeconomic fall-out of an influenza pandemic.”
http://www.planforflu.com/avian_flu_news
This is a report from an independent think tank and instead of attacking my lack of knowledge on the subject, contact these experts and give them a tongue lashing for their stupidity.


“Because no one knows just how H5N1 will mutate, experts say it will not be possible to start making a vaccine against it until the pandemic strain emerges.”
(http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/01/26/birdflu.vaccine.reut/). Now these experts may be wrong, but they are pretty sure that the H5N1 will mutate.

psi wrote:

You haven't a clue, based on your posts....
You haven't a notion of what you're talking about.

Is this you being 'civil' again?

Which leads me to a whole different subject matter altogether:
Are all ghostbusters angry?

So less of the personal attacks and concentrate on disputing the arguments put forth.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

If I wanted to talk about SARS, I would have created the thread:
Anybody worried about SARS creeping towards Ireland?

Because its relevant. When the SARS "threat" was hot in the media, the worry in Ireland was exactly the same as now. On baords we had lots of posts like your one, with much the same tone and approach (and misinformation) as yours, saying we would be hit, hit hard etc etc.

Of course, it never happened. I ask what you thought at the time because your opinion now, is pretty much related to your opinion then.

If you took the same knee jerk reactionary approach then as you did now, it will be shown that you learned nothing and you just enjoy scaremongering.

So I ask again, were you worried about sars, if not, why not, if so, why didn't we all get sick?

Why are you afraid to answer the question? Will the answer make your POV look that bad?

You are being petty because I used the word ‘evolve’ when talking about antibiotics and bacteria. Here are a couple of references (of many):

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/320/7229/199?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=%22bacteria+evolve%22&andorexactfulltext=and&searchid=1140257797330_1119&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=relevance&resourcetype=1

Can you give me any used by scientists in journals? I'm sure they exist, but what you have shown there are news snippits, albeit general science ones as opposed to media ones.

Technically, we don't say bacteria evolve in the same concept that animal evolution takes place. One subtle difference is that strain A of a bacteria doesn't out compete strain B for total dominence. Both strains still exist in the world and are quite rampant. Yes I am being pedantic.

My argument is that the more the virus spreads, the greater the chance H5N1 will mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans. NEWSALERT: I did not come up with this notion.

The virus cannot mutate by itself. Do you understand the process involve for what you describe to happen? Can you explain it here?

So you can continue to call me clueless and ignorant but it has been in the public domain for some time. I am only conveying this message so please don't shoot me (the messenger). For example:

Your conveying media nonsense. Its all twisted into reactionary scaremongering, just like SARS was.

“A worst-case scenario bird flu pandemic could wipe US$4.4 trillion off global economic output and kill more than 140 million people, according to an Australian report on the macroeconomic fall-out of an influenza pandemic.”
http://www.planforflu.com/avian_flu_news
This is a report from an independent think tank and instead of attacking my lack of knowledge on the subject, contact these experts and give them a tongue lashing for their stupidity.

Where doe sit say it will happen? You have said "It will definitely happen" - show me experts who say this?

“Because no one knows just how H5N1 will mutate, experts say it will not be possible to start making a vaccine against it until the pandemic strain emerges.”
(http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/01/26/birdflu.vaccine.reut/). Now these experts may be wrong, but they are pretty sure that the H5N1 will mutate.

Nowhere in that article does it suggest that they are pretty sure. They use the specific term "could". I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I'm saying its very unlikely.

Is this you being 'civil' again?

Which leads me to a whole different subject matter altogether:
Are all ghostbusters angry?

I'm mod of paranormal? Big deal? I'm also a qualified epidemiologist. whats your point?

So less of the personal attacks and concentrate on disputing the arguments put forth.

I'm not being personal, you were and I'll report the post.
In saying you are ignorant of the facts I am merely stating from your posts. I have displayed in my posts, why I believe this is so.

amp

Calling someone ignorant is not personal abuse. Back on topic.

boardy

psi wrote:

I'm not being personal, you were and I'll report the post.

I repeatedly used links and references in my argument throughout this thread. How many did you use? Not one.
Just because you are a qualified epidemiologist, it does not imply that you do not have to supply corroborating evidence.

Even though I mentioned (on a number of occasions) that I was repeating what was in the public domain, you still directed words/phrases like “ignorant, haven’t a clue, haven’t a notion” towards me. In your latest post you say that I “just enjoy scaremongering”. Where is your proof of this?

The whole ‘tone’ of your responses was confrontational and not at all conducive to an open debate where all of us could become more informed (which was the reason why I placed this thread in Humanities to begin with).

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

I repeatedly used links and references in my argument throughout this thread. How many did you use? Not one.
Just because you are a qualified epidemiologist, it does not imply that you do not have to supply corroborating evidence.

What would you like me to provide?


Have a read of this.

by Dr. Marc Siegel
People are concerned about the possibility of a coming pandemic. The way this information has been communicated in the media and via several of our public health officials carries the message that something major is in the offing. This makes a worst case seem like the only case. In fact, the government has a reason to consider worst-case scenarios as it attempts to protect us, but we need to consider that a massive pandemic may well not be in the offing. As I suggest here specific measures of personal preparation, I, too, must be careful about hidden messages. When I advise a certain kind of preparation, I must consider if I am inadvertently suggesting that something must be about to happen.

I do not think a massive bird flu pandemic that kills many millions of people worldwide is about to happen, for reasons that I will go into throughout this book. The major reason is that, as with mad cow disease, which has killed hundreds of thousands of cows but only a little over a hundred people, we are currently protected by a species barrier.

For bird flu to pass human to human, further changes in its structure have to occur. Influenza viruses change frequently, but this form of H5N1 appears to have been around since the 1950s, and in the eight years that it has infected millions of birds (1997–2005), documented human cases have been rare (less than 150 clinical infections with 70 deaths at the time of this writing). We don't know how many thousands have developed antibodies to this virus and not gotten sick from it, so it may not be as deadly as it seems to be to humans. If it mutates sufficiently to infect us routinely, it may do so in a way that causes it to be far less lethal.

Thats a pretty good summation in my opinion.

Even though I mentioned (on a number of occasions) that I was repeating what was in the public domain, you still directed words/phrases like “ignorant, haven’t a clue, haven’t a notion” towards me. In your latest post you say that I “just enjoy scaremongering”. Where is your proof of this?

The proof is that all your references use phrases like

"could"

"worst case scenario"

"may"

While you use phrases like the following:

boardy wrote:

but scientists believe it is just a matter of time before it learns how to transmit from human to human.

So you are saying that everyone that will get infected with this mutation (when it happens)

Scientists believe no such thing and "when it happens" implies it is a definite.

The whole ‘tone’ of your responses was confrontational and not at all conducive to an open debate where all of us could become more informed (which was the reason why I placed this thread in Humanities to begin with).

If you were open to debate you'd answer my SARS question, but you know the outcome of that so you're "too chicken" (Oh I crack me up) to answer.

My tone is only confrontational in your head. You have implied twice that this is anything more than a "worst case scenario" that is being hyped to sell news papers, just like SARS was, and that is an ignorance of the facts and reality.

IF it jumps to a human-human transmissible form AND shows the same virulence THEN start worrying, until then, a Yellowstone eruption and Meteor impact are actually more likely.

boardy

psi wrote:

Have a read of this.
Thats a pretty good summation in my opinion.

That is actually an interesting read.

psi wrote:

Scientists believe no such thing and "when it happens" implies it is a definite.

Dr. Klaus Stohr is a virologist and head of the World Health Organization's influenza team

"We have in Asia an H5N1 virus which is ready to cause a pandemic," Stohr said.
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46653-2004Nov12.html)

psi wrote:

If you were open to debate you'd answer my SARS question, but you know the outcome of that so you're "too chicken" (Oh I crack me up) to answer.

That is actually funny.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

That is actually an interesting read.

And notably, straight from the scientist.

Dr. Klaus Stohr is a virologist and head of the World Health Organization's influenza team

"We have in Asia an H5N1 virus which is ready to cause a pandemic," Stohr said.
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46653-2004Nov12.html)

Unlike this. I'd like to see the full quote in context. Surely you know that journalists often change context by editing?

I'd like to see something from the scientist.

That is actually funny.

Not as funny as how you won't answer the question.

boardy

psi wrote:

And notably, straight from the scientist.



Unlike this. I'd like to see the full quote in context. Surely you know that journalists often change context by editing?

I'd like to see something from the scientist.

Click on the link. It was a direct quote from the scientist at a meeting at the World Health Organization's headquarters in Switzerland. The Washington Post and other news organisations reported it. I am sure the link is sufficient to most readers.

Hopefully, this will direct your focus away from me and towards the source of my information.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

Click on the link. It was a direct quote from the scientist at a meeting at the World Health Organization's headquarters in Switzerland. The Washington Post and other news organisations reported it. I am sure the link is sufficient to most readers.

Hopefully, this will direct your focus away from me and towards the source of my information.

The link gave that one isolated phrase, I would like to see the context of how he said it. Does taking it from the whole interview/statement change the emphasis?

Why are you avoiding the SARS question?

boardy

SARS is so yesterday.

I am only interested in the Avian Bird Flu (not nematode bird flu).

GuanYin

Actually, just on Klaus Stohr, he has been suggesting the next pandemic is just around the corner since 2004.

Flu pandemics typically have occured every 40 years and w'ere well overdue one, that is to be sure, however, alot has changed in the last 50 years of medicine, especially in terms of health and hygene.

Thats not to say we won't be affected or there won't be a flu pandemic. I'm just saying that H5N1 is unlikely to be it.
Justthe same way as SARS was supposed to be the pandemic and wasn't.

I find it very curious you're unwilling to discuss SARS, I think its pretty much the same scenario in terms of "worry".

boardy

In all honesty, I hope that I do not have to resurrect this thread in a few months time just to say “I told you so”, when the first case of human to human transmission of bird flu is confirmed in Africa or Asia. And if it does mutate, I hope that it will not be a lethal strain.

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

In all honesty, I hope that I do not have to resurrect this thread in a few months time just to say “I told you so”, when the first case of human to human transmission of bird flu is confirmed in Africa or Asia. And if it does mutate, I hope that it will not be a lethal strain.

Me too, but all I'd ask is that you consider the difference between a scenario and a likelihood. H5N1 is a scenario, nothing more.

Its being hyped now, as many diseases have been. I remember when the last ebola case occured in sky news had "the wall of doom" and a ton of experts talking about how devistating it would be in london etc etc. Irish hospitals received calls from people concerned they had it (one womans period was heavier than normal and turned up in an emergency room panicing).

This sort of stuff helps noone and it is irresponsible reporting by the media. At the moment the only worry we have regarding bird flu is from an agricultural point of view. That particular issue, may well be a serious problem for us.

bonkey

boardy wrote:

In all honesty, I hope that I do not have to resurrect this thread in a few months time just to say “I told you so”,

I hope so too, but I doubt you will. I hoped the same with all the people who said the same about all the previous "end of the world as we know it" new threats such as SARS and so forth.

I forget who it was attributed to, but a great comment I heard recently was that economists have successfully predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

With killer-disease threats, we're batting a somewhat more outrageous figure, where we've predicted god-knows-how-many-at-this-point of the last 0.

I haven't seen anyone put anything like a percentage chance on this happening that they can defend with credibility. Statisticians can tell me what the odds are of dying from a meteor-strike, from lightning, and/or virtually everything else are.....but can't tell me what the chances of this flu mutating, being lethal, and killing me are. Not even as a ballpark figure, unless they put the probability "somewhere between 0 and 1". They can tell me that if it mutates, and if the mutation is the right one, then the odds are X, but...well...that means nothing given that it still contains two unquantified probabilities.

Worried? Nope.

I still hope you don't get to say "See...I was right", but I rank that kinda alongside hoping that I don't get hit by lightning, don't get killed in an avalanche, that the people telling me the End of the World is Nigh don't get to tell me that they told me so, and so on.

esskay

I have travelled through Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand in the last three months and in the rural parts there are chickens everywhere, running around loose everywhere we went. Even in some restaurants & shops there were chickens running around. The ONLY people who looked remotely worried were the westerners. Like I said in an earlier post, there are 83 million people in vietnam and 40-50 people died, so the odds of someone catching the flu are remote unless you work with poultry. imho it is just another scaremongering story from the media world meant to put people on edge to make them more receptive of all the marketing junk we are subject to everyday.

The media is not a service but a group of corporations selling your attention to people with products to sell. The news is watched by what are considered more informed people and is a valuable market to be targerted, which is why imo it has ceased to be news and is now infotainment.

The more you watch, the less you know!

boardy

esskay wrote:

The media is not a service but a group of corporations selling your attention to people with products to sell. The news is watched by what are considered more informed people and is a valuable market to be targerted, which is why imo it has ceased to be news and is now infotainment.

The more you watch, the less you know!

Very true. But it is not helped when you hear scientists like Dr. Klaus Stohr coming out with the doomsday scenario. What makes it worse is that he is the head of the World Health Organization's influenza team, so as a layperson you are inclined to at least ‘listen’ to what he has to say and try no to think of ulterior motives for his comments.

And even if we have “two unquantified probabilities” in the mutation equation, wouldn’t it be dereliction for us not to prepare for an eventuality? Of course this preparedness would be preferred without the hype.

GuanYin

bonkey wrote:

I haven't seen anyone put anything like a percentage chance on this happening that they can defend with credibility. Statisticians can tell me what the odds are of dying from a meteor-strike, from lightning, and/or virtually everything else are.....but can't tell me what the chances of this flu mutating, being lethal, and killing me are. Not even as a ballpark figure, unless they put the probability "somewhere between 0 and 1". They can tell me that if it mutates, and if the mutation is the right one, then the odds are X, but...well...that means nothing given that it still contains two unquantified probabilities.

In fairness to them, its a lot more difficult a thing to predict. There are far far far far far far far more variables when it comes to predicting an outbreak than there are predicting almost any other natural disaster.

Everything from the genetics of the index patient to the route they take to work that day. On top of that you have the biology of the pathogen itself, the actual mutation that happens and the list is endless.

It really is "chaos theory" at it finest and maybe most complex. When you think, such refined personal things like "maybe the kids stayed home from work or they didn't" with the first few cases can pretty much determine whether the infection rate is hundreds or millions....

Thats a blood tough thing to try and predict.

Which is why they give "worst case scenarios" which unfortunately are such a good tool for selling newspapers that they are often reported as gospel.

esskay

boardy wrote:

Very true. But it is not helped when you hear scientists like Dr. Klaus Stohr coming out with the doomsday scenario. What makes it worse is that he is the head of the World Health Organization's influenza team, so as a layperson you are inclined to at least ‘listen’ to what he has to say and try no to think of ulterior motives for his comments.

And even if we have “two unquantified probabilities” in the mutation equation, wouldn’t it be dereliction for us not to prepare for an eventuality? Of course this preparedness would be preferred without the hype.

What did Dr Stohr say? What was he asked to prompt the quote used? And in the end if the worst comes to the worst, what can we do to be prepared for an infulenza pandemic? If you were determined not to get normal flu how would you go about avoiding it? Stay inside all the time? Where in ireland do they sell bio-suits

esskay

Correct me if I am wrong, but afaik viruses can swap DNA with each other and this is how mutations occurr. So for a human-human mutation to occurr the Bird Flu virus would have to "meet" another virus in a human host and swap the relevant DNA to enable human-human transmission. And like psi said

psi wrote:

It really is "chaos theory" at it finest and maybe most complex.

The odds are slim

GuanYin

boardy wrote:

Very true. But it is not helped when you hear scientists like Dr. Klaus Stohr coming out with the doomsday scenario. What makes it worse is that he is the head of the World Health Organization's influenza team, so as a layperson you are inclined to at least ‘listen’ to what he has to say and try no to think of ulterior motives for his comments.

There are maybe a couple of things behind that. Klaus Stohr is a biologist and patron of his field, many scientists fall into the trap of over-emphesising the importance of their work, often because they feel it is an area that is underfunded/under resourced.

I'mnot saying he is lying to get money, truth be told I think all such areas need far more money and funding, but sometimes there are other motives.

That said, his "quote" was given out of context. They took one line of what he said and gave none of the lead up or aftermath to it.

If I scrolled back through this thread and decided to take one or two of your comments totally out of context, I could make it look like you were trying to say anything about this topic.

boardy wrote:

And even if we have “two unquantified probabilities” in the mutation equation, wouldn’t it be dereliction for us not to prepare for an eventuality? Of course this preparedness would be preferred without the hype.

Ultimately we are responsible for our own actions, the people who go panicing without looking for facts are every bit to blame.

I like the irony of your last paragraph, given your stance throughout the thread. You have contributes to the "hype" directly and defended it throughout.

Of course we should prepare for the liklihood of a disease, but not atthe expense fo more pressing and present matters.

boardy

psi wrote:

I like the irony of your last paragraph, given your stance throughout the thread. You have contributes to the "hype" directly and defended it throughout.

I said that preparing for a mutation would be "preferred" without the hype. My stance involved reiterating statements that were issued by WHO and the CDC.

amp

boardy wrote:

I repeatedly used links and references in my argument throughout this thread. How many did you use? Not one.
Just because you are a qualified epidemiologist, it does not imply that you do not have to supply corroborating evidence.

Even though I mentioned (on a number of occasions) that I was repeating what was in the public domain, you still directed words/phrases like “ignorant, haven’t a clue, haven’t a notion” towards me. In your latest post you say that I “just enjoy scaremongering”. Where is your proof of this?

The whole ‘tone’ of your responses was confrontational and not at all conducive to an open debate where all of us could become more informed (which was the reason why I placed this thread in Humanities to begin with).

Banned from Humanities for a week for not complying with a back on topic order.

p.pete

Personally I'm very worried about Bird Flu creeping towards Ireland. I was listening to the news on BBC 5 earlier and they were discussing it and said they don't even have a vacine yet for when this evolves into a human to human form :eek:

GuanYin

p.pete wrote:

Personally I'm very worried about Bird Flu creeping towards Ireland. I was listening to the news on BBC 5 earlier and they were discussing it and said they don't even have a vacine yet for when this evolves into a human to human form :eek:

Ya know, when you told me on MSN you were gonna troll the thread, I thought you'd be more creative.

They could attempt a vaccine from a related strain but they'd have no idea of how effective it would be until after the event.

I'm not saying there is no need, I think the research should be done, I'd disagree with a panic reaction into pumping money and resources into developing a vaccine that may or may not work, when the money could be used elsewhere to better effect.