playing kings near the the final table?

Gholimoli

right first of of all im bitter when im writing this and that could very well have effected my poker brain .
last nite in the 10K grt 100+9 .
13 left and i have a healthy stack of 12K.
blinds 400/800 .
UTG open raises and makes it 1800 to go.
im thinking here well i dont wanna get fancy and dont want to take risks.i was happy with taking the 1800+the blinds so i push .UTG's stack is the same as mine.
its folded back to UTG who calls and shows A fecken QQQQQQQQQQQ .
an A on the flop is enough to send me packing.
now this elimination + being eliminated from the 15K about 2 hours laster in 14th place when i raise with my AKs and some retard wannabe puts me all in with 44 and his hand holds up(Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr this was all deep stack poker people i mean no risks were needed at all).
anyway back to the KK hand.i was thinking maybe a less risky way here (and deffo pus*y way ) of playing KK here would be to flat call the raise and see the flop and take it from there.
the advantage here is that you can keep the pot small and possibly fold in a face of feard A.
you dont have to go broke cuz some retard thinks its good play to call off all your stack with AQ.
what im saying is there is much much less chance of going broke.
disadvantge is your not defying villians hand.i mean he could have anything at all.also he may not be willing to keep the pot small in which case depending on the texture of the board you can decide what to do.
i was thinking maybe a reraise here but then again a reraise will pot commit you and if villian calls,then he will have the odds to draw to the river.
now please think about this and let me know what you think.
please dont say that i want the AQ to put all his money in pre-flop cuz im x% to y% favor and bla bla .im starting to think that at this stage of a tourny x% to y% favor is not enough if y% is the chances of you busting out.
as long as y%>15
so what you all think?

apologies for the tone of the post but there is nothing worse than staying up till 2:45 at night and going out in 15th in the filed of 300 and then having to wake up 6am to get to work.

Culchie

I think you are still a little sore about it, and really know better.

If he wants to stick his chips in with AQ versus your KK .... happy days .... most of the time.

brianmc

Gholimoli wrote:

and that could very well have effected my poker brain .

Yep. It seems your poker brain is away off somewhere taking a rest after the beat.

ianmc38

Culchie wrote:

I think you are still a little sore about it, and really know better.

If he wants to stick his chips in with AQ versus your KK .... happy days .... most of the time.

Exactly.

Ste05

Just another Bad Beat I'm afraid. You just got unlucky.

Would be thinking about your play and posting the hand if he missed his Ace as he normally will??

ocallagh

You had a 70% shot of getting into a great position to win that tournament.. ul, but you played it fine - you want AQ to make a bad call.

Maybe a raise to 5k is the way to go. If they push you can call. If they miss their Ace on the flop you can take them off their hand and still win a decent sized pot. If the Ace comes you can re-evaluate.. I notice the All-In doesn't scare off too many people.. they tend to call an all-in faster than a re-raise sometimes..

El Stuntman

you have nothing to be bitter about - got the money in as a 70% fav. What more can you ask for if you are playing to win the tournie???

Just the pokah gods taking their revenge on you for your other sins!

The Gecko

Gholimoli wrote:

now this elimination + being eliminated from the 15K about 2 hours laster in 14th place when i raise with my AKs and some retard wannabe puts me all in with 44 and his hand holds up(Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr this was all deep stack poker people i mean no risks were needed at all).
QUOTE]


Would you have felt better if he had pocket QQ;)

willis

Gholi the stacks arent deep enough to play a flop with kk, you have about 15bbs.if u flat call the raise your inviting the blinds along and if u raise to 5k as ocallagh suggested are you goin to fold to an all-in?i think the push was right as he has shown strenght utg, only AA beats you and im happy to play this big pot all-in preflop with 13players left and this structure.ul but thats poker, **** happens

Gholimoli

I don’t agree with the raise to 5k simply because your pot committed and it’s not enough to make people lay down AQ and your better off just pushing. Also your giving your opponent to see the flop and if that happens his not going to make a mistake. He will go further if he hits his A and will fold if he doesn’t and in both cases his not making a mistake.
I agree with you willis completely about the fact that stacks are not deep enough to play post-flop poker.
If some one else had made this post I would prob be the first one to jump in and say “don’t be ridiculous ,this is stupid ,you just got unlucky now get over it” .
However seen as I have started this, lets carry on.
My KK has a 31% of busting me here against almost any A.
Here is the question, if you were to switch off auto pilot what sort of busting % would be enough to may you lay down your hand.
I mean for a lot of people QQ here would be an auto push as well, but you’re only 50/50 against AK and obviously behind KK and AA.
Im not trying to advocate weak tight play at all as that is not my style.
What im getting at is near the end of a tourney, when you feel that your possibly one of the better remaining players would you fold 45% of busting? How about 40%?
I don’t think I made a mistake in the way the hand was played and I will do it again every time .however it made me think when facing weaker opposition (and this is very important that you know most of them are less skilled than you) how much edge are you willing to give up to make sure your not busted?

ntlbell

*waits for marq to point users to the correct thread*

fuzzbox

Bleh - push KK every time.

He makes a big mistake with AQ, and you gain by that.

If you call, and flop comes A-high and he bets his QQ into you, and you laydown, then you have made a huge mistake.

If the flop comes AKx and he check/folds his QQ, but would have called you preflop, then you have made a huge mistake.

Get the money in good, let the cards fall where they may.

Culchie

Gholi,

I'm going to play Devils Advocate.

I bet every time you pushed in this tourney, you didn't have KK.

You got Villan to make mistake this hand, but he probably thought he was well ahead on previous action/notes etc... ??

He got lucky alright, but if it were me playing you, I'd be considering calling as well.

We haven't factored in 'table image' in this thread yet.

I'm sure you'll take this comment in the spirit it was meant. (you fecking maniac:D )

willis

Gholimoli wrote:

how much edge are you willing to give up to make sure your not busted?

Some people will say never pass an edge. Personally i will pass slight edges or refrain from pushing my edge if i feel its right regarding my opponents/stack sizes etc. Some people totally disagree but i feel that you dont have to push every coinflip where your slightly ahead or every 60/40. i like to play a lot of flops where you can play lots of small pots and try outplay people and avoid gambling as such for large portion of your stacks.

If you both had 100bbs and he said that if u went all-in with your kk he would call with his aq what would you do?would u push?say u believed that he and the rest of the table were terrible players and blinds were an hour long?would you reraise and play a smallish pot and hope he misses his ace or would u push preflop?not only Gholi but everyone

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

Some people will say never pass an edge. Personally i will pass slight edges or refrain from pushing my edge if i feel its right regarding my opponents/stack sizes etc. Some people totally disagree but i feel that you dont have to push every coinflip where your slightly ahead or every 60/40. i like to play a lot of flops where you can play lots of small pots and try outplay people and avoid gambling as such for large portion of your stacks.

If you both had 100bbs and he said that if u went all-in with your kk he would call with his aq what would you do?would u push?say u believed that he and the rest of the table were terrible players and blinds were an hour long?would you reraise and play a smallish pot and hope he misses his ace or would u push preflop?not only Gholi but everyone

You are 2.5:1 favourite.
Why on earth would you want to forgo this magnificient opportunity to acquire some lovely tournament chips?

willis

why would you want to play for all these lovely chips all-in preflop against a fish?yes your a 2.5:1 favourite but so what. i push every single time in cash games but in a 100bb tourny im not so sure

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

why would you want to play for all these lovely chips all-in preflop against a fish?yes your a 2.5:1 favourite but so what. i push every single time in cash games but in a 100bb tourny im not so sure

If I know that he has AQ, and we have 10000000BBs and I know that he will call, then I will push every time.

The money doesnt matter here - what exactly are you trying to achieve by not pushing when you have a massive edge?

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

why would you want to play for all these lovely chips all-in preflop against a fish?yes your a 2.5:1 favourite but so what. i push every single time in cash games but in a 100bb tourny im not so sure

Precisely where is your break-off point then? How do you try to accumulate chips?

Lets say you have JJ on a JT6 board with two diamonds, and you know that villain has KdQd and will call your push ... do you push?

5starpool

willis wrote:

why would you want to play for all these lovely chips all-in preflop against a fish?yes your a 2.5:1 favourite but so what. i push every single time in cash games but in a 100bb tourny im not so sure

I push every time here. If you don't take his chips someone else will. You cannot assume you will get a chance to take their chips again with that big an edge. If you wait to be sure he has undercards only then it might be a long wait.

willis

fuzzbox wrote:

Precisely where is your break-off point then? How do you try to accumulate chips?

Lets say you have JJ on a JT6 board with two diamonds, and you know that villain has KdQd and will call your push ... do you push?

i accumulate chips by playing flops, by winning lots of small pots which is the way most players try to do. i dont feel that in order to win a tourny against below average players i have to play all-in preflop poker. if this was phil ivey with aq then yes i push becuse im going to find it harder to get his chips later.

With regards the JJ hand i bet enough to give him wrong odds, and play the turn. if the turn is a blank i push, as with 1 card to come i have increased my chances off winning the hand. why give him 2 cards to hit by going all-in, why not just ive him 1.also most players dont fold draws on the flop, but when a blank hits the turn they know theres only "1 card to come" and are likely to fold.

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

i accumulate chips by playing flops, by winning lots of small pots which is the way most players try to do. i dont feel that in order to win a tourny against below average players i have to play all-in preflop poker. if this was phil ivey with aq then yes i push becuse im going to find it harder to get his chips later.

With regards the JJ hand i bet enough to give him wrong odds, and play the turn. if the turn is a blank i push, as with 1 card to come i have increased my chances off winning the hand. why give him 2 cards to hit by going all-in, why not just ive him 1.also most players dont fold draws on the flop, but when a blank hits the turn they know theres only "1 card to come" and are likely to fold.

What if he goes all-in for 1000000 BBs ? Do you call?

How much do you bet on this flop in order to give him wrong odds? The pot?
2x pot?

willis

see your changing it to what if he pushes. i said that he is just going to call the raise or call the all-in with aq so should you push allin or raise and make him fold when he misses. i like tie 2nd option, you win less but you havent got all your chips in and havent risked your tourny life.

I watched ivey in the MCM and he said in 4 days of the tourny he hadnt yet been all-in,so do you think he was pushing his edges to the maximum

Gholimoli

willis wrote:

Some people will say never pass an edge. Personally i will pass slight edges or refrain from pushing my edge if i feel its right regarding my opponents/stack sizes etc. Some people totally disagree but i feel that you dont have to push every coinflip where your slightly ahead or every 60/40. i like to play a lot of flops where you can play lots of small pots and try outplay people and avoid gambling as such for large portion of your stacks.

If you both had 100bbs and he said that if u went all-in with your kk he would call with his aq what would you do?would u push?say u believed that he and the rest of the table were terrible players and blinds were an hour long?would you reraise and play a smallish pot and hope he misses his ace or would u push preflop?not only Gholi but everyone

if i had 100BB and villain had 100BB and the situation was that close to the final table i would easily fold KK for an all in pre flop. I would fold it knowing villain had QQ .however I would only do this knowing im one of the better players remaining. The 20% risk of going broke simply does not justify the double up here in my opinion.
Im all up for post-flop play where im confident I can outplay my opponents.
I know pushing here with KK is deffo +EV .as for passing up +EV opportunities and that you should never pass up +EV situation ,this is not correct.
According to Sklansky there is a scenario in which its right to pass up +EV bets.
And that is if accepting that +EV bet will keep you from making an even more +EV bet later.
For example if a bet offered to you today has +EV of $2 but if you loose that bet it will keep you from making a +EV of $5 bet later on ,then its correct to pass up that +EV today.
I think in terms of tournament situations specially near the end you should look at the over all EV and not just the EV of the hand your involved in right now.
Also when considering EV (again near the end) you should deffo consider the % of going broke. for example a situation may be +EV but give you a 60% of busting. I think in this case it could be correct to pass up that +EV situation.

Gholimoli

willis ,
thats my point exactly.
Im trying to figure out despite that despite being a 2.5:1 favourite, when you have 33% of losing, should you take that chance. I think it depends how much you think your better than your opponents. obviously if I was playing known name players who can out play me then I would take even a 40% chance of winning .but the reason why I would do this has much to do with knowing that my well known opponents may very well give up a 60% chance of winning when it means they will bust 40% against a fish like me.

willis

Gholimoli wrote:

if i had 100BB and villain had 100BB and the situation was that close to the final table i would easily fold KK for an all in pre flop. I would fold it knowing villain had QQ .however I would only do this knowing im one of the better players remaining. The 20% risk of going broke simply does not justify the double up here in my opinion.
Im all up for post-flop play where im confident I can outplay my opponents.
I know pushing here with KK is deffo +EV .as for passing up +EV opportunities and that you should never pass up +EV situation ,this is not correct.
According to Sklansky there is a scenario in which its right to pass up +EV bets.
And that is if accepting that +EV bet will keep you from making an even more +EV bet later.
For example if a bet offered to you today has +EV of $2 but if you loose that bet it will keep you from making a +EV of $5 bet later on ,then its correct to pass up that +EV today.
I think in terms of tournament situations specially near the end you should look at the over all EV and not just the EV of the hand your involved in right now.
Also when considering EV (again near the end) you should deffo consider the % of going broke. for example a situation may be +EV but give you a 60% of busting. I think in this case it could be correct to pass up that +EV situation.

explained 10times better than i could.however foldin kk vs qq...ye mad ting, i would call an 80-20 situation in a flash

Gholimoli

Culchie wrote:

Gholi,

I'm going to play Devils Advocate.

I bet every time you pushed in this tourney, you didn't have KK.

You got Villan to make mistake this hand, but he probably thought he was well ahead on previous action/notes etc... ??

He got lucky alright, but if it were me playing you, I'd be considering calling as well.

We haven't factored in 'table image' in this thread yet.

I'm sure you'll take this comment in the spirit it was meant. (you fecking maniac:D )

Culchi,
my table image here was solid.i had not shown anything but good cards.
AQ was the worse hand i had shown pretty much all along on this table.
i had also been very inactive before this hand.
however table image means nothing to these feckers when they are staring at AQ.

Gholimoli

willis wrote:

explained 10times better than i could.however foldin kk vs qq...ye mad ting, i would call an 80-20 situation in a flash

willis ,
taking the stack sizes in to account,what can i do when 200BB that i can not do with 100BB against soft players?
what can i do with 0BB?
hence the fold.

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

if i had 100BB and villain had 100BB and the situation was that close to the final table i would easily fold KK for an all in pre flop. I would fold it knowing villain had QQ .

This is the difference between playing to win and playing to place. Playing to place often results in shortstacked play at the final table, whereas if you survive that long playing to win you will be in a much more comfortable.

Of course it can be right to pass situations where you are fairly sure you are ahead. You do not always need to get involved. But an edge as big as KK over AQ, or esp KK over QQ would be too good an opportunity to pass up. If this was 5 from the money in the WSOP main event though for example, then yes, I personally would toss the KK (probably), but in your standard Fitz or SE tournament, then unless I was convinced there was a huge probability of AA then I would not pass.

I know tournament play should be irrespective of event, but it isn't for most people (huge event vs small event)

Gholimoli

5starpool wrote:

This is the difference between playing to win and playing to place. Playing to place often results in shortstacked play at the final table, whereas if you survive that long playing to win you will be in a much more comfortable.

Of course it can be right to pass situations where you are fairly sure you are ahead. You do not always need to get involved. But an edge as big as KK over AQ, or esp KK over QQ would be too good an opportunity to pass up. If this was 5 from the money in the WSOP main event though for example, then yes, I personally would toss the KK (probably), but in your standard Fitz or SE tournament, then unless I was convinced there was a huge probability of AA then I would not pass.

I know tournament play should be irrespective of event, but it isn't for most people (huge event vs small event)

i dont think this the difference between wanting to place and wanting to win.
i cater all my moves and strategys in order to win.
however consider this example.
13 players left and you have 150BB and one other person has 150BB .
all the rest of the filed have between 10BB to 50BB .
why go against the the only 150BB when you have 20% chance of busting.
i would take as little as 20% of winning against the 20BB simply because i have 0% of busting.
the fact that its WSOP or SE dosent change the theory.
i mean if you think folding is wrong then why do it in WSOP and not SE?

Iceman78

what was your impression of the villain? had he been raising with muck or was he pretty solid?

I would have to think about the opponent but cant see myself trying away KK in your spot. It sounds like you played it right and just got outdrawn by a fish. It was a crazy call by the villain.

Ste05

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont think this the difference between wanting to place and wanting to win.
i cater all my moves and strategys in order to win.
however consider this example.
13 players left and you have 150BB and one other person has 150BB .
all the rest of the filed have between 10BB to 50BB .
why go against the the only 150BB when you have 20% chance of busting.
i would take as little as 20% of winning against the 20BB simply because i have 0% of busting.
the fact that its WSOP or SE dosent change the theory.
i mean if you think folding is wrong then why do it in WSOP and not SE?

Well this a great example of how, IMHO, it's obvious you're playing to place. If you take this 80:20 or 70:30 shot, and win, (as you will 80% of the time :rolleyes: ) you will have 300BB and the nearest to you will have 50BB, you'll be a huge favourite to win the whole tournament.

If you don't want to get involved with this guy now, and fold this, when will you take him on, when it's heads-up, (if you get that far), what if you lose one of your even money shots, to a 50BB player.

Are you going to let this big stack run over the table, or are you just hoping one of the shorties takes him on and tries to put manners on him, but what outcome do you want? Do you want the Shortie to: (a) Win - slowing the CL down, or (b) Lose - moving you closer to the Final Table, albeit with one guy having a monster stack.

I'm all for picking up alot of small pots, and picking off the shorties, but if a situation arises where I can win a huge pot and put myself in a situation where I would have to go crazy not to at least finish in the top 2 or 3. As opposed to grinding away and hope to get to the final table with a stack that is just above average. I think it's just different risk aversions but I'd take this example in a heart beat.

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

explained 10times better than i could.however foldin kk vs qq...ye mad ting, i would call an 80-20 situation in a flash

Yet not a 70/30 ???

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont think this the difference between wanting to place and wanting to win.
i cater all my moves and strategys in order to win.
however consider this example.
13 players left and you have 150BB and one other person has 150BB .
all the rest of the filed have between 10BB to 50BB .
why go against the the only 150BB when you have 20% chance of busting.
i would take as little as 20% of winning against the 20BB simply because i have 0% of busting.
the fact that its WSOP or SE dosent change the theory.
i mean if you think folding is wrong then why do it in WSOP and not SE?

The situation I am talking about is when you said you would fold KK late on against QQ. No matter if you have 150BB or 10BB this is the wrong move. If there is any reasonable sort of chance that they have AA then you certainly don't need to get involved. The times you don't need to get involved at this stage would be AK vs underpair - race situations. If you pass this opportunity up with 12 players left, would you pass the same opportunity on the first hand of the final table? When would you not pass this opportunity? I think that is the prudent point.

There is a difference between not needing to get involved and between passing up a big edge situation.

Did you not read my previous end of mail? I said that in theory it doesn't matter whether it is the wsop or the se, but in practice to most players it does. If you say you would be as disappointed to bubble in the se as you would in the wsop, then fair play to you, but I know which one would gut me most.

5starpool

Ste05 wrote:

Well this a great example of how, IMHO, it's obvious you're playing to place. If you take this 80:20 or 70:30 shot, and win, (as you will 80% of the time :rolleyes: ) you will have 300BB and the nearest to you will have 50BB, you'll be a huge favourite to win the whole tournament.

If you don't want to get involved with this guy now, and fold this, when will you take him on, when it's heads-up, (if you get that far), what if you lose one of your even money shots, to a 50BB player.

Are you going to let this big stack run over the table, or are you just hoping one of the shorties takes him on and tries to put manners on him, but what outcome do you want? Do you want the Shortie to: (a) Win - slowing the CL down, or (b) Lose - moving you closer to the Final Table, albeit with one guy having a monster stack.

I'm all for picking up alot of small pots, and picking off the shorties, but if a situation arises where I can win a huge pot and put myself in a situation where I would have to go crazy not to at least finish in the top 2 or 3. As opposed to grinding away and hope to get to the final table with a stack that is just above average. I think it's just different risk aversions but I'd take this example in a heart beat.

Well said Ste - pretty much what I was trying to say in a lot of my above post.

fuzzbox

willis wrote:

see your changing it to what if he pushes. i said that he is just going to call the raise or call the all-in with aq so should you push allin or raise and make him fold when he misses. i like tie 2nd option, you win less but you havent got all your chips in and havent risked your tourny life.

I watched ivey in the MCM and he said in 4 days of the tourny he hadnt yet been all-in,so do you think he was pushing his edges to the maximum

I dont want him to fold his AQ, I want him to call and then, most of the time, I will win.

Ivey was talking about never having all his chips at risk (aka all-in when somebody had him covered), that does not mean that he folded in this spot, but rather means that he was almost instantly a chip leader and never got into such a situation subsequently .

Actually - there is a report in some magazine recently - hand 2 of a tourney, Ivey has AK, and raises, and Tony G gets into a pot with him. Flop Axx with two hearts, Ivey bets and Tony G goes all-in .... Ivey calls.

Tony G has a flush draw.

This is a 66/33 shot, and Mr. Ivey still took it.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont think this the difference between wanting to place and wanting to win.
i cater all my moves and strategys in order to win.
however consider this example.
13 players left and you have 150BB and one other person has 150BB .
all the rest of the filed have between 10BB to 50BB .
why go against the the only 150BB when you have 20% chance of busting.
i would take as little as 20% of winning against the 20BB simply because i have 0% of busting.
the fact that its WSOP or SE dosent change the theory.
i mean if you think folding is wrong then why do it in WSOP and not SE?

Why would you not take the 80% chance of busting the other guy?

willis

fuzzbox wrote:

Actually - there is a report in some magazine recently - hand 2 of a tourney, Ivey has AK, and raises, and Tony G gets into a pot with him. Flop Axx with two hearts, Ivey bets and Tony G goes all-in .... Ivey calls.

Tony G has a flush draw.

This is a 66/33 shot, and Mr. Ivey still took it.

yes your right, however this was speed poker at the Aussie Millions which was a 6 handed stt made for tv.

Gholimoli

5starpool wrote:

The situation I am talking about is when you said you would fold KK late on against QQ. No matter if you have 150BB or 10BB this is the wrong move. If there is any reasonable sort of chance that they have AA then you certainly don't need to get involved. The times you don't need to get involved at this stage would be AK vs underpair - race situations. If you pass this opportunity up with 12 players left, would you pass the same opportunity on the first hand of the final table? When would you not pass this opportunity? I think that is the prudent point.

There is a difference between not needing to get involved and between passing up a big edge situation.

Did you not read my previous end of mail? I said that in theory it doesn't matter whether it is the wsop or the se, but in practice to most players it does. If you say you would be as disappointed to bubble in the se as you would in the wsop, then fair play to you, but I know which one would gut me most.

"The situation I am talking about is when you said you would fold KK late on against QQ. No matter if you have 150BB or 10BB this is the wrong move. "
this is exactly where your wrong.it makes a huge difference whether you have 10BB or 150BB.
to prove my point that stack sizes play a huge part here consider this example.its the first hand of a WSOP or another tourny.you have 10000K and villian has 10000K as well and blinds are 25/50.villian goes all in and you have KK.are you going to call?
well the answer should be clear no.why? becasue there is a chance he may have AA.
now suppose its near the end and you only have 15BB.villian has 15BB as well.
he goes all in and you again have KK.are you going to call?
the answer should be clear yes.
why?i mean the chances of villian having AA here in theaory is the same as the first hand.
the reason why you should call in the second spot is simply becuase given your stack size you can not afford to wait for a better spot than this.you need to gamble and take chances in order to survive.
but in the first spot you have plenty of time.
stack sizes in relation to blind dictate strategy at any level and the amount of risk that should be taken.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli and Willis, what tournaments are you guys playing that you can afford to give up a 70:30 edge? I've seen Sklansky quoted here [paraphrasing] about waiting for a better edge assuming that you're one of the better players in the game, and that you have time to wait for that edge. If you're playing in any of the local tournaments then you will never have time to wait for a better edge. I dont play online tournies, but I'd imagine it's the same at the lower levels. Even a 60:40 edge is huge in the games most people here play.

Another thing, and this is Hectors quote, not mine: Most players are never as far ahead as the rest of the field, skill-wise, as they think.

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

Well this a great example of how, IMHO, it's obvious you're playing to place. If you take this 80:20 or 70:30 shot, and win, (as you will 80% of the time :rolleyes: ) you will have 300BB and the nearest to you will have 50BB, you'll be a huge favourite to win the whole tournament.

If you don't want to get involved with this guy now, and fold this, when will you take him on, when it's heads-up, (if you get that far), what if you lose one of your even money shots, to a 50BB player.

Are you going to let this big stack run over the table, or are you just hoping one of the shorties takes him on and tries to put manners on him, but what outcome do you want? Do you want the Shortie to: (a) Win - slowing the CL down, or (b) Lose - moving you closer to the Final Table, albeit with one guy having a monster stack.

I'm all for picking up alot of small pots, and picking off the shorties, but if a situation arises where I can win a huge pot and put myself in a situation where I would have to go crazy not to at least finish in the top 2 or 3. As opposed to grinding away and hope to get to the final table with a stack that is just above average. I think it's just different risk aversions but I'd take this example in a heart beat.

First of all i am the CO chip leader in the example i gave.
villain does not have more chips than me but we both have the same amount of chips.
as to when i want to take him on i have to say bit by bit.
im better than him post flop so i can take his stack bit by bit.
as for the short stacks ,i have no problem taking them on or confronting them with all in moves even if i have as little as 20% chance of winning.
Because i will not bust.
what if i loose my even money shot to a 50BB?
Well then i will become a 100BB and will change my strategy accordingly.
What if i become a 10BB?well i will further change my strategy.
the idea is to take risk according to your stack size to first ensure both survival and maximizing your chances of wining. You need to keep a balance between the two of them and change your strategy accordingly.
Some times in means taking more risk ,and some times it means less.

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

as to when i want to take him on i have to say bit by bit.
im better than him post flop so i can take his stack bit by bit.
as for the short stacks ,i have no problem taking them on or confronting them with all in moves even if i have as little as 20% chance of winning.
Because i will not bust.
what if i loose my even money shot to a 50BB?
Well then i will become a 100BB and will change my strategy accordingly.
What if i become a 10BB?well i will further change my strategy.

So you say you are a better player than him postflop. What if he is not a good enough player to realise that he should lay down top pair crap kicker to a huge reraise postflop when you are trying to 'outplay' him? Where is the edge in that.

Also, you are willing risk 1/3 of your chips on a 50% shot, but not 100% of your chips on an 80% shot? This is not clever. You should be doing both.

And previously you said you would fold KK knowing your opponent had QQ if it was close to the final table and you were comfortable. This is not like laying down because of the chance he migt have aces, this is poker cowardice, and you would deserve to get busted later.

Culchie

Jeez,

Is this thread still on?

I thought it was just an unlucky beat. Full Stop.

5starpool

Culchie wrote:

Jeez,

Is this thread still on?

I thought it was just an unlucky beat. Full Stop.

Stop trying to spoil a good argument. I like arguments. I will probably bust out now in the scalps holding kings while one of the CL and get involved with another CL who has AQ. Oh the irony.

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

Gholimoli and Willis, what tournaments are you guys playing that you can afford to give up a 70:30 edge? I've seen Sklansky quoted here [paraphrasing] about waiting for a better edge assuming that you're one of the better players in the game, and that you have time to wait for that edge. If you're playing in any of the local tournaments then you will never have time to wait for a better edge. I dont play online tournies, but I'd imagine it's the same at the lower levels. Even a 60:40 edge is huge in the games most people here play.

Another thing, and this is Hectors quote, not mine: Most players are never as far ahead as the rest of the field, skill-wise, as they think.

Lenny i certainly agree that i for one dont have that much of an edge over the remaining field .however im reducing the risk of going broke when there is no need to.
suppose there are 3 players left in a tourny.
1. gets $1 mil
2.gets $500K
3.gets $100K

you have 50BB left and another player also has 50BB .
the third person has only 5BB left.
you have AA and the other 50BB will move all in.
5BB fold. will you call?
i would not even think about calling knowing that im at least 80% fav.
the 20% risking of going broke here is disaster.

willis

lenny_leonard wrote:

Gholimoli and Willis, what tournaments are you guys playing that you can afford to give up a 70:30 edge? I've seen Sklansky quoted here [paraphrasing] about waiting for a better edge assuming that you're one of the better players in the game, and that you have time to wait for that edge. If you're playing in any of the local tournaments then you will never have time to wait for a better edge. I dont play online tournies, but I'd imagine it's the same at the lower levels. Even a 60:40 edge is huge in the games most people here play.

Another thing, and this is Hectors quote, not mine: Most players are never as far ahead as the rest of the field, skill-wise, as they think.

I never said i play tournaments where i pass a 70-30 edge, i was saying that if somebody raises with aq and ive kk, we are deepstacked, i will raise and hope he just calls the raise so we can play a flop. i was saying that even if he said "hey will ive aq and if u go all-in preflop i will call" i still wouldnt go all-in preflop as by just playing a flop im playing a smaller pot with a less likely chance of busting myself. if however he did push i wouldnt pass unless it was a situation which Gholi is portraying. kk vs aq is 70-30, but thats presuming you see all 5 cards, why let the aq see all 5 cards.make him call a raise to see the flop and push on ragged flops...you win less but have risked less. also if he hits the ace on the flop you lose less and are still in

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

Lenny i certainly agree that i for one dont have that much of an edge over the remaining field .however im reducing the risk of going broke when there is no need to.
suppose there are 3 players left in a tourny.
1. gets $1 mil
2.gets $500K
3.gets $100K

you have 50BB left and another player also has 50BB .
the third person has only 5BB left.
you have AA and the other 50BB will move all in.
5BB fold. will you call?
i would not even think about calling knowing that im at least 80% fav.
the 20% risking of going broke here is disaster.

I doubt there was $1m for first in the SE last night. And if the principle is the same, why are you using vastly inflated numbers? Why not use $10, $5, $1 instead?

You would fold aces and a chance to bust out the other big stack? Is that what you are saying? That is bizarre. Strangely enough I would call in a shot. for $1m or $1.

Gholimoli

5starpool wrote:

So you say you are a better player than him postflop. What if he is not a good enough player to realise that he should lay down top pair crap kicker to a huge reraise postflop when you are trying to 'outplay' him? Where is the edge in that.

Also, you are willing risk 1/3 of your chips on a 50% shot, but not 100% of your chips on an 80% shot? This is not clever. You should be doing both.

And previously you said you would fold KK knowing your opponent had QQ if it was close to the final table and you were comfortable. This is not like laying down because of the chance he migt have aces, this is poker cowardice, and you would deserve to get busted later.

i dont get your first example about post flop play.
what im saying is im a better player and so i can take his stack from him bit by bit with out putting my self at the risk of eliminiation at all.
i would prob not risk 1/3 of my stack on 50/50 shot either but the point here is avoid going broke when there is no need for risk.
its not cowardly.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

Lenny i certainly agree that i for one dont have that much of an edge over the remaining field .however im reducing the risk of going broke when there is no need to.
suppose there are 3 players left in a tourny.
1. gets $1 mil
2.gets $500K
3.gets $100K

you have 50BB left and another player also has 50BB .
the third person has only 5BB left.
you have AA and the other 50BB will move all in.
5BB fold. will you call?
i would not even think about calling knowing that im at least 80% fav.
the 20% risking of going broke here is disaster.

In-the-money play is different obviously, but I cant see how folding here is right either. ~75% of the time here you knock out 2 players and are guaranteed 1M, and ~25% of the time you get nothing. If you fold, then ~50% of the time you get 500K and ~50% of the time you get 1M. Or worse, a small percentage of time, you will end up with the 100K (if SS survives).

Those figures are just off the top of my head, but I doubt they're too far off. Please dont turn this into a "folding Aces" thread, for the love of God!

Edit: for the case where you call, you obviously get something for the 25% when you lose, and this will be the 500K more often than not. Making it a definate +EV call.

Gholimoli

5starpool wrote:

I doubt there was $1m for first in the SE last night. And if the principle is the same, why are you using vastly inflated numbers? Why not use $10, $5, $1 instead?

You would fold aces and a chance to bust out the other big stack? Is that what you are saying? That is bizarre. Strangely enough I would call in a shot. for $1m or $1.

well if you dont take it your 99% grtd to take 500K and 50% grtd to take 1M .
if you do take it your 80% grtd to take 1M and 20% of taking 100K.
in first situation you your EV is 995000 .
in the second one your EV is 820000 .
which do you think is better?

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont get your first example about post flop play.
what im saying is im a better player and so i can take his stack from him bit by bit with out putting my self at the risk of eliminiation at all.
i would prob not risk 1/3 of my stack on 50/50 shot either but the point here is avoid going broke when there is no need for risk.
its not cowardly.

So you reckon you have an 80% chance or better of outplaying a particular person postflop, and this is why you would pass an 80% preflop edge?

Assume you had KK and there was a flop seen of Q82r and the other guy check-raised you all in. What would you do then? If you would throw away KK all the time then it is a mistake. It is not a mistake to throw all the time, but if you are clearly a better player, when does this come into play here? I like to have the chips in when I have a good edge and not to have to face this decision.

When have you played a tournament when late on you have had 150BB anyhow?

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

well if you dont take it your 99% grtd to take 500K and 50% grtd to take 1M .

Ok, in reality here I would chicken out probably due to the stakes. This is why the theory is different for big tournaments vs small ones. You are contradicting yourself from earlier.

My chickening out in this specific situation does not make it the right thing to do though in general.