Odds

BrokenArrows

I got pocket 3's twice in a row on VC poker today.

Wondering what are the odds of that??

Also earlier than that i got Three of a kind jacks twice in a row.

ntlbell

BrokenArrows wrote:

I got pocket 3's twice in a row on VC poker today.

Wondering what are the odds of that??

Also earlier than that i got Three of a kind jacks twice in a row.

for pocket 33's twice in a row i thinks it's the same as getting them once

a set of jacks twice in a row, i'll leave that to the math's buffs

OTliddy

To get pocket 3s twice in a row for two given hands is one in 48,841 i think. The odds of getting a particular pocket pair in a hand is one in 221, the odds of getting any pocket pair are one in 17.

Running Bing

I think the odds are the same for any pocket pair ntlbell i.e. your just as likely to get a pair of 2's as aces cause theres four twos in a deck and theres four aces in a deck. In regards to the odds of getting pocket threes in a row I could be way off but I think its 4/52x3/51x4/52x3/51=144/7033104=1/48841 basically you'll be dealt it once every 48,841 hands? Is this right.

Running Bing

lol you beat me to it OTliddy

5starpool

Babybing wrote:

I think the odds are the same for any pocket pair ntlbell i.e. your just as likely to get a pair of 2's as aces cause theres four twos in a deck and theres four aces in a deck. In regards to the odds of getting pocket threes in a row I could be way off but I think its 4/52x3/51x4/52x3/51=144/7033104=1/48841 basically you'll be dealt it once every 48,841 hands? Is this right.

Pretty much. It is 221/1 for any pocket pair, so square that and you are at your figure.

A guy I was sitting beside last night got AA twice in a row, hit a set each time, got 55 next hand and hit a set there too.

Edit: I should read more than the last post in a thread to be sure I'm not repeating stuff......:o

tricky D

1325 to 1
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=897672&page=0&view=&sb=5&o=0&fpart=

ntlbell

Babybing wrote:

I think the odds are the same for any pocket pair ntlbell i.e. your just as likely to get a pair of 2's as aces cause theres four twos in a deck and theres four aces in a deck. In regards to the odds of getting pocket threes in a row I could be way off but I think its 4/52x3/51x4/52x3/51=144/7033104=1/48841 basically you'll be dealt it once every 48,841 hands? Is this right.

I said 33 because that's what he was talking about obviously yes it's the same for any pp but i was under the impression it's the same odds if you get them once then the odds are the same to get them in the next hand.

OTliddy

tricky D wrote:

1325 to 1
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=897672&page=0&view=&sb=5&o=0&fpart=

No. There are only 2 "two particular" cards, but there are 4 3's. The odds on getting, say, 3c 3s are 1/1326, but the odds of getting the same(particular) pocket pair twice in a row = (221^2)/13=3757

<edit>: The above can be confusing, but basically there are 1326(...51^-1*52^-1*2) possible combinations of cards to get(suits included), but 78 of these are pocket pairs. It's 1/221 in get a particular pair and 1/17 to get any pocket pair.

tricky D

OTliddy wrote:

No. There are only 2 "two particular" cards, but there are 4 3's. The odds on getting, say, 3c 3s are 1/1325, but the odds of getting the same pocket pair twice in a row = (221^2)/13=3757

Yep, my bad, thinking exact same cards

OTliddy

BrokenArrows wrote:

Also earlier than that i got Three of a kind jacks twice in a row.

How many other people were playing? Did you get them pocket J's both times?

ntlbell

OTliddy wrote:

No. There are only 2 "two particular" cards, but there are 4 3's. The odds on getting, say, 3c 3s are 1/1326, but the odds of getting the same(particular) pocket pair twice in a row = (221^2)/13=3757

<edit>: The above can be confusing, but basically there are 1326(...51^-1*52^-1*2) possible combinations of cards to get(suits included), but 78 of these are pocket pairs. It's 1/221 in get a particular pair and 1/17 to get any pocket pair.

I never claimed to be great at math's but i'm finding it hard to grasp this.

9 people sit down dealer shuffles

your chances of getting say pocket 3's is what?

now hand is over

dealer shuffles your chances of getting 3's is what?

surley it's the same chance as you had the first hand?

where's that busy at math's book.

BrokenArrows

OTliddy wrote:

How many other people were playing? Did you get them pocket J's both times?

No Pocket cards once.

charlesanto

OTliddy wrote:

.....
..... and 1/17 to get any pocket pair.

So if you're playing a 9 handed game, someone will have a pocket pair every second hand(ish) ?

CoD

ntlbell wrote:

I never claimed to be great at math's but i'm finding it hard to grasp this.

9 people sit down dealer shuffles

your chances of getting say pocket 3's is what?

now hand is over

dealer shuffles your chances of getting 3's is what?

surley it's the same chance as you had the first hand?

where's that busy at math's book.

They are talking about any PP then the same one again.
So chances of any pocketpair is... 16/1 (or 17/1 whatever)

But the chances of getting a specific pocket pair is 221/1( in this case the PP must be 3's not any other pocket pair)

As this is to happen 2 times in a row you multiply.

---

I can see what your trying to say that in totally seperate hands, the chances of getting 3's would be the same as the next. But 1 after the other, you multiply the odds as you are talking about 2 things happening together. Not seperatly.

Running Bing

ntlbell wrote:

I said 33 because that's what he was talking about obviously yes it's the same for any pp but i was under the impression it's the same odds if you get them once then the odds are the same to get them in the next hand.

Yeah sorry about that ntlbell I completely misread your post:o and yes it is the same odds each hand but for the oddds of getting it twice in a row you multiply 1/221 by 1/221 i.e. a pocket pair in the first hand and a pocket pair in the second hand.

Idoubtit

While the odds are 1 in 48841, and this seems so huge! It wasn't as tho u sat down thinking I wonder will I get two pocket 3's in a row. What I mean is that once you've got the first pocket 3's, then it becomes interesting that you should get them a second time, but the odds for this are only 1 in 221.

Anyone understand what I'm getting at? Hard to explain!

Anyone ever get dealt same pocket pair three times in a row? It happened to me when I had just started playing interent poker. I got aces three times in row, but ,because I was starting off, it was on 25/50c limit table with 9 players. Needless to say it was difficult get players out pre-flop on those tables. I only won with them once!

Norwich Fan Rob

it depends when u make the odds.
if someone says, sit there, i will deal 2 hands, the chances of getting 33 and then 33 again are 48k odd to 1 as suggested.
if u just got the 1st 33 already, then the odds of getting dealt 33 again at this point in time (as i think NTL means) is 221/1.

Hitman Actual

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

it depends when u make the odds.
if someone says, sit there, i will deal 2 hands, the chances of getting 33 and then 33 again are 48k odd to 1 as suggested.
if u just got the 1st 33 already, then the odds of getting dealt 33 again at this point in time (as i think NTL means) is 221/1.

Best answer here, as far as I'm concerned.

Doctor Fell

NTLBell is talking about a single hand or event - the odds of getting dealt a particular hand in one deal. And in this case it is always 221/1.
But babybing is talking about the odds of 2 events happening, the odds of each event being 221/1. Those odds were then calculated at 48K/1.

Both are correct, just depends which scenario u are considering.
I mean if u want to calculate the odds of being dealt 33 ten hands in a row, each hand the odds of getting it are 221/1, but the cumulative odds will be (221 to the power of 10)/1. Or in the Lotto to get the 1st number might be 6/42, second would be 5/41 etc but overall its a couple of million to one.

charlesanto

Compare it to going into a bookies ...

Betting on two horses at 10/1

a) you bet €10 on each horse to win seperatly (€20 total) and the both win
the return is €100+10 for each bet = €220

b) you bet €20 for both horses to win (€20 total) and the both win
the return for the first win is €200+20 = €220 which goes onto the second race which then returns 2200+220 = 2420

Rnger

After he got 33 twice in a row, the odds that this was going to happen is... 1 in 1! Its clear afterwards that this was always going to happen just because it did happen. I'm not a believer in predestination but I think this idea is bit funny, if not not hugely non-sensical

SandyVN

To many numbers... It depends how many hands you sit for, the less hands the higher the odds.. I tryed to work it out before when i got Ah Ad twice B4. I came to the conclusion that........my head hurts.

Rnger

BrokenArrows wrote:

Also earlier than that i got Three of a kind jacks twice in a row.

I might give this a go... I'm assuming that your holding JJ and hit a third J on the flop.

Getting jacks: 1/221
Hitting a set: 1/8 (roughly)

Multiply those two together: 1/1768 (odds on getting JJ and then hitting a J on the flop)

now the same thing happening again would be the same odds
Simply square 1/1768 to find the odds of it happening straight after it happend already

=1/3125824 is the odds in hitting a set of jacks twice in a row (i think)

Doctor Fell

Rnger wrote:

After he got 33 twice in a row, the odds that this was going to happen is... 1 in 1!

No, it's correct to say that the odds of it happening were 48,841/1!!
The fact that it did happen doesn't get away from the fact that the mathematical chance of those 2 events occuring was 48,841/1.

SandyVN

But the odds would be differnt if they were the same suit or not???

Doctor Fell

SandyVN wrote:

But the odds would be differnt if they were the same suit or not???

No because when we say there is 221 different starting hands we don't take suits into consideration e.g. AKs is 1 of the 221 hands (even though u could have it 4 different ways). If u differentiate by suit there are 52C2 starting hands, which is 1,326.
So 3 of clubs and 3 of hearts is one of 1326 possible hands. But 33 is one of 221 hands.

Doctor Fell

SandyVN wrote:

But the odds would be differnt if they were the same suit or not???

Or think of it this way - the odds of getting 3H3C in any particular hand is as follows:
2/52 * 1/51 = 1326/1.

Rnger

This is leaving cert maths stuff... and you call yourselves poker players!!

Doctor Fell

Rnger wrote:

This is leaving cert maths stuff... and you call yourselves poker players!!

Heh! back of the class! Never said it was anything else - somebody posted a question, and people are answering it. I notice u are using Leaving Cert english....:cool:

Wombatman

Dave Colclough on a similar point
http://poker.sportinglife.com/Features/story_57033.shtml

Doctor Fell

Wombatman wrote:

Dave Colclough on a similar point
http://poker.sportinglife.com/Features/story_57033.shtml

Good link alright, I especially like the following bit:

"More importantly though, the probabilities that...

An Ace or a King will flop is 43% of the time. "

Oh yeah? Then how come every time I raise with AK I never get a flop with an A or a K??? :mad: (btw I know me having an A or K reduces the odds a lot)
That's the problem with theory, it never works in real life...for me anyway!

Hitman Actual

Is El Blonde correct here:

"Fortunately an opponent with two odd cards is almost 40-1 to flop 2 pair."

Thought it was ~48/1 ??

shroomfox

The chance of getting any three of a kind is approximately 0.021276. (1/47)

The same three of a kind again though (with the same or different kickers) is:

4 choose 3 (the three of a kind) times 48 times 47 divided by all possible hands (it's not 49 times 48 because you can't count the remaining three)

and that's

4 x 48 x 47 = 9024 divided by all possible card combinations (2,598,960) = approximately 0.0034721 or .3%. Then the possibility of getting both of them is .021276 x .0034721 = 0.0000738723996 or 73 times out a million. Does that sound right?

The possibility of getting 3 Jacks twice in a row is .0034721 squared then, isn't it? So it's 0.00001205547841 or 12 times out of a million.

I don't know if this is right or not, but I used to be good at counting and probability before I forgot it all!

I forgot - this is five cards, so this is your chance of getting it by the flop.

OTliddy

This is leaving cert ordinary level.
The 3s has been answered correctly by about 7 different people. I'll give the 3 jacks a go.

I'm taking you got pocket jacks once and one jack the other hand. But i'm also taking into account the chances of you getting no jacks, and 3 coming out in the community cards. You would get 3(no more, no less) jacks every 172 hands(4/52x3/51x2/50x48/49x47/48x46/47x45/46x7C3).
About 2/3rd the time you get them in the 7 cards, you will have at least one jack

hotspur

To those who said that the odds of being dealt 33 was 221 to 1, it isn't it's 220 to 1, not important in itself but if it's based on thinking that 1 in x chance equates to x to 1 then you may screw up on your working out of pot odds.
If you toss a coin and heads is a 1 in 2 chance is it a 2-1 shot? A real dog? This is far far more important than any of these odds of 33 twice in a row and it seems that some of you don't know it. If something has a 1 in x chance of happening then it is x-1:1, so a 1 in 5 chance is 4-1. Really really important to understand that, especially if you only think in terms of x to 1 shots.

shroomfox

This is leaving cert ordinary level.

Counting 3 jacks in a row twice defnitely isn't Leaving Cert ordinary level - It's third level at the least man! Counting problems on Leaving Cert Higher level are nowhere near as complex as that.