Winter 2006 Snow Predictions And Indications Part 7

Supercell

Winter 2006 Snow Predictions And Indications Part 7 - The beast from the east cometh;)

Probably not but here's hoping!!
I see each run is bringing the really colder weather another few hours away..its always at the end of the ensemble run - F.I.

There are encouraging signs in that there is at least a few runs now edging towards the -5 mark at 850hpa ..but thats probably only useful in an established flow and especially over higer ground (last cold spell we had -7 and sleety rain..but the seas were slightly warmer, and pressure was pretty high).

Febuary and March are the best months for snowfall in most of the country so far from winter being over ..its just about to begin!!

That said, we have plenty of much needed rain to get through in the next 5-10 days at least before then in all likelyhood.

Danno

For the moment we have a touch of spring to get through, anyone care to have a bet on 15c being reached in some part of Ireland by 1800hrs on Thursday evening???

Mothman might if its sunny

Danno

I am NW of a ridge of hills, I might

Gonzo

so far were on track for another record breaking mild January if this keeps up till the end of the month, so far this month most days have seen temperatures breaking double figures in Dublin reaching 12/13c a few times already. At 11pm tonight in Dublin its currently 11C, thats 2C warmer than Malaga in Spain, 2c warmer than Rome in Italy and 9c warmer than Athens in Greece!

Danno

Yet another January where 13c+ was recorded in Ireland... fifteen in a row now I think...

Mothman (the keeper of records) should have a verification on this.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

so far were on track for another record breaking mild January if this keeps up till the end of the month, so far this month most days have seen temperatures breaking double figures in Dublin reaching 12/13c a few times already. At 11pm tonight in Dublin its currently 11C, thats 2C warmer than Malaga in Spain, 2c warmer than Rome in Italy and 9c warmer than Athens in Greece!

Whoopy doo

What do you expect?
Our climate is maratime with some variability like unusual heatwaves (rare) and unusual cold snaps (also rare)

And I'll bet Malaga will be warmer than Ireland tomorrow though it is continental so despite its southerly location is more likely to get unmodified cold air unlike us who are an island and whose air is always modified by the sea whether from a cold or warm feed.
The idea of these threads is to actually discuss weather possibilities and probabilities.
Lest people forget or simply weren't old enough to notice or werent born, that though the 1980's delivered lots of cold snaps-it also had plenty of periods where we were mild and Europe froze and said freeze never got here.
Thats our climate folks.
Incidently there werent many cold snaps in the 70's either untill the late 70's...

Now can we continue to discuss the various possibilities in the weather without the constant moaning thanks...

ninebeanrows

The trend is falling in line maybe abit later than i expected but i won't
mind once the cold air is flooding throught hat gate to the east.

The models are falling into line, its a long shot at this stage as were
looking at the +168hr range.

But atm from January 28th we could be entering a severe cold spell:)

4 things are needed WC for to avoid wet sleety snow slop:

(1) sub -10 850's(no warmer) to reach at least the East coast (ie cover all of the Irish sea)
(2) strong winds which would immedietly temper any sst modification of the surface air
(3) Sub zero surface air in Britain (Sub zero in northern France etc would be a given and a must)

Those together would bring the air temps in the East down to plus one or two maxes or lower depending on the strength of the wind flow and how cold Britain got.Snow would be a given as dewpoints would almost certainly be well below zero.
However precipitation would depend on the next point...

(4) Pressure below 1020mb-if its any higher than that, you can forget about heavy showers, you will get light coastal ones at best or maybe moderate if lucky.
1015mb or lower would be ideal.

If you lose any of those four conditions, you can still obviously get a good snow event but you run the risk of it being marginal or uninteresting.

Thats the shopping list anyway for the cold spells home delivery and looking at its "budget" way out East, it can easily deliver those 4 conditions.

A watered down version of them like last february (2005) would be disappointing (no -10 850 or below in the East or covering the Irish sea and no UK wide surface sub zero maxes with the exception of the south East of England)

I'm not going to be selfish and ask for the -10 or below 850 air to cover the whole of Ireland In actual fact with widespread sub zero UK maxes, it would be enough for that upper air to cover the East and most essentially the Irish sea.
-5 to -10 upper air in those circumstances and negative dew points would be adequate to provide snow else where in Ireland if the above was delivered to the East.
It would certainly cause a very snowy spell too in any Cold v mild atlantic break down of the spell.

Mothman

Danno wrote:

Yet another January where 13c+ was recorded in Ireland... fifteen in a row now I think...

Not quite Below are the max temps at the synoptic stations for each Jan back to 1980. I've added in a couple notes. The Ashford Temps are official temps.

1980M01 12.5
1981M01 13.5
1982M01 13.2
1983M01 14.2
1984M01 13.2
1985M01 12.5
1986M01 13
1987M01 12
1988M01 13.9
1989M01 13.9
1990M01 14.3
1991M01 13.2
1992M01 13.5
1993M01 14.8
1994M01 12.7
1995M01 13
1996M01 13.4
1997M01 13.8
1998M01 16.5
1999M01 13.1
2000M01 13
2001M01 12.1 12.7C recorded at Johnstown Castle Co. Wexford.
2002M01 14.4 14.7C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2003M01 16.1 17.8C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2004M01 13.2 13.8C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2005M01 14 14.4C at Ashford Co. Wicklow

Mothman

BTW, max of 13.8C today at 1030. Still above 13C now. Don't think I'll see 15C tomorrow.

CerebralCortex

This is something that bothers me, I may be out of place saying this but "here goes". If this such a mild coutry (I hate mild), as pointed out, then why do so many ppl wear so much clothes, I means to say, heavy clothes you would associate with "real" winter conditions??? I haven't needed to wear a jacket,
cap, gloves etc. since I went to Austria this time last year. It just baffles me.
Forgive me I know its off topic but some ppl I've seen today look like they think its -3c outside.

And for my final question what kind of conditions cause a heavy mist like rain which I am no experiencing in Galway city?

max here was 12.3c at 1112 am which is not much warmer than the current 11.9c

Getting back on topic Moscow has been down to -36c in the last 24 hours :eek:
Thats its coldest temp since 1947...

Now I have to say provided pressure stayed below 1020,I'd be very excited with a south south east to East flow originating from there at the end of the month.
The whole of Eastern and central Europe is getting as cold if not colder than at any time that we had and Easterly in the 80's

Parts of Finland are down to -27c also which would be a nice NE source with a good fetch.
Even when modified that would be potent on arrival here.

So lets see what happens.
There are already subtle hints being dropped by forecasters across the water that something is cooking

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

4 things are needed WC for to avoid wet sleety snow slop:

(1) sub -10 850's(no warmer) to reach at least the East coast (ie cover all of the Irish sea)
(2) strong winds which would immedietly temper any sst modification of the surface air
(3) Sub zero surface air in Britain (Sub zero in northern France etc would be a given and a must)

Those together would bring the air temps in the East down to plus one or two maxes or lower depending on the strength of the wind flow and how cold Britain got.Snow would be a given as dewpoints would almost certainly be well below zero.
However precipitation would depend on the next point...

(4) Pressure below 1020mb-if its any higher than that, you can forget about heavy showers, you will get light coastal ones at best or maybe moderate if lucky.
1015mb or lower would be ideal.

If you lose any of those four conditions, you can still obviously get a good snow event but you run the risk of it being marginal or uninteresting.

Thats the shopping list anyway for the cold spells home delivery and looking at its "budget" way out East, it can easily deliver those 4 conditions.

A watered down version of them like last february (2005) would be disappointing (no -10 850 or below in the East or covering the Irish sea and no UK wide surface sub zero maxes with the exception of the south East of England)

I'm not going to be selfish and ask for the -10 or below 850 air to cover the whole of Ireland In actual fact with widespread sub zero UK maxes, it would be enough for that upper air to cover the East and most essentially the Irish sea.
-5 to -10 upper air in those circumstances and negative dew points would be adequate to provide snow else where in Ireland if the above was delivered to the East.
It would certainly cause a very snowy spell too in any Cold v mild atlantic break down of the spell.

All I can say is the 12z must have been listening

FI I know but boy oh boy oh boy-look at this

You would have snow coming out of your ears in the East with this and Billy the Squid would be skating on the shannon

darkman2

Were in buisness folks:


Still a bit to go but the charts are getting better and better:D

ninebeanrows

Yes the prosepcts and trend are becoming a REAL possibility.

Look forth with promise and we will see

Maybe it's just me... but i always expected this winter to come off. I've lost patience at times
but i think were finally homing in on the Holy Grail of weather set-up. I for some reason am not
nervous about this set-up i kinda think that it is set in stone. I know it might sound crazy and all
but that's my opinion. Im not gonna worry about ENS's and the lark because i would find it amazing
if we were not to have a severe 7 day cold spell within the next 3 weeks.

Lets sit back relax and see where the roller-coaster takes us

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

if we were not to have a severe 7 day cold spell within the next 3 weeks.

Lets sit back relax and see where the roller-coaster takes us

That particular run tended to a week of the above chart for Ireland which would certainly be enough (low pressure permitting) to pile snow showers onto the East coast-yes snow, not sleet, and not rain.

The only problem I see and the hurdle to get over is that there is no delay, ie a temporary continuance of the Atlantic influence ,pushing back an Easterly for 3 or 4 more weeks like last year and at this distance that is still a big risk.

Also if that happens, you will probably have lost a lot of the cold to Greece or somewhere and have a less potent Easterly...

Scubadevils

Myself and my wife were planning a weekend break next week to Oslo, wonder what those charts would bring for there?

It's already minus 17c in Oslo Felix and falling...
So even colder still

MrSinn

Got a max temp here today(Laois) of 15c at 1400 - 1530

Scubadevils

Earthman wrote:

It's already minus 17c in Oslo Felix and falling...
So even colder still

wow, so I may see some snow there! We are about to book this evening, due to fly out on Friday 26th and come back on the Sunday - would nearly prefer to save it for another weekend if there is potential at home.

lucernarian

A peach of a chart:D

Even though it's in FI, any Long Range Forecasts I've read have hinted at what that chart suggests at that time. I'm going to go as far as to say as that chart is more likely to occur than it normally would at 240 hours but no more. I'm not going to be held responsible for jinxing it:p

There'll certainly be snow there and if this run was to come off, your return flight would be re routed to Shannon ( or possibly Malaga )

Though there will most definitely be snow and ice and mega sub zero temps in Oslo-we would be hoping by that w/end that it is also under at least a 1060 mb anticyclone ( so as we get our Easterly ) so hopefully it will be sunny by then there.

My apologies Felix

Oslo is not as cold as other parts of Norway at the moment though it is near freezing and it will more than likely join the rest of Europe soon in major sub zero land
It's currently -4c

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/NO.html

Danno

Mothman wrote:

Not quite Below are the max temps at the synoptic stations for each Jan back to 1980. I've added in a couple notes. The Ashford Temps are official temps.

1980M01 12.5
1981M01 13.5
1982M01 13.2
1983M01 14.2
1984M01 13.2
1985M01 12.5
1986M01 13
1987M01 12
1988M01 13.9
1989M01 13.9
1990M01 14.3
1991M01 13.2
1992M01 13.5
1993M01 14.8
1994M01 12.7
1995M01 13
1996M01 13.4
1997M01 13.8
1998M01 16.5
1999M01 13.1
2000M01 13
2001M01 12.1 12.7C recorded at Johnstown Castle Co. Wexford.
2002M01 14.4 14.7C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2003M01 16.1 17.8C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2004M01 13.2 13.8C at Ashford Co. Wicklow
2005M01 14 14.4C at Ashford Co. Wicklow

Darn you 2001

Danno

I like the look of that 12z (Midday) chart - http://members.boards.ie/man/Rtavn2402.png = Below -10 air all over Ireland, means a maximum temperature of -3c to 1c all over Ireland at midday on Saturday Jan 28th.

Notice how there is a squeeze on the isobars (white lines more packed together) out over The Netherlands (Holland), should indicate an organised area of snow or possibly a front. Like the even colder pool up wind fron Denmark into Finland (purple colours)

I hope that the low pressure over NW Italy does not throw up too much warm air into the flow over southern Poland...

Supercell

Good lord, 17.8C in 2003 , didn't think it that high had been reached in January before, thought it was around 17.1C or so !!

Regarding the ensembles..so very tempting to go nuts and get excited, however its is still in FI truth be told, but unquestionably the potential is there as the cold air is already in eastern europe as can be seen on http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif

Last year those dark purple temperatures were nowhere near europe all winter (I check that site pretty much daily throughout the year) even in the coldish spell near the end of Febuary..if the same synoptics were to happen..well a prelonged '87 may well be on the cards.

But its too far way to really get excited here, synoptics just like this happen every year and don't come off (and if they do just lead to weather like a few weeks ago in the last easterly)..difference this year is if they do..the cold air is well and truely established already so plenty of cold to tap into early.

Feet on the ground still..eyes glued to the model runs..this could be the big one !!

Scubadevils

Earthman wrote:

My apologies Felix

Oslo is not as cold as other parts of Norway at the moment though it is near freezing and it will more than likely join the rest of Europe soon in major sub zero land
It's currently -4c

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/NO.html

Near enough to freezing will do me fine, the dilemma is more what I may miss here!

@Longfield

@Longfield

The january 87 spell went on for a week(I know you suggested it was only 4 days or so before, I am certain it was a week)
Snow showers from the Irish sea first that settled well in Dublin to about an inch or two.
I lived in Ballinteer at the time and remember going up there on the 48A and the snow as you headed that direction just got deeper and deeper
4 or 5 inches there compared to the 2 at Ranelagh.
By Thursday a front moved down from the North East dumping another 4 inches in the Ranelagh/Donnybrook area and in town with up to 8 inches or more around Ballinteer, the Grange and more still up around Lamb Doyles.
There was a rapid thaw at the weekend as the spell ended.
Curiously as I remember it, the thaw moved from North to south as I went back to Arklow on the friday and back to Dublin on the sunday and we still had lots of snow whilst the Dublin stuff had mostly melted.
But then there were drifts a couple of feet down in wicklow so they did actually have a lot more snow.
Gone everywhere with rain I think on monday though.

(I remember snow like an elephant )

maquiladora

Uh oh, the press are at it.....was anyone watching Sky News a few minutes ago? They were showing the headlines of tomorrow's UK papers and it looked like their the mail or express with RUSSIAN WINTER SET TO INVADE NEXT WEEK or something, in the usual size one thousand bold bombasti-font.

embee

Oh no.. oh please God no.

I love snow, absolutely love it but I am due a baby in 11 days time... please tell me... how likely is this snow to arrive? I'm in County Louth.... the idea of snow on the roads and me trying to get to the hospital... Holy Lord, please tell me ye're messing

billy the squid

maquiladora wrote:

Uh oh, the press are at it.....was anyone watching Sky News a few minutes ago? They were showing the headlines of tomorrow's UK papers and it looked like their the mail or express with RUSSIAN WINTER SET TO INVADE NEXT WEEK or something, in the usual size one thousand bold bombasti-font.

there you go.

Mothman

embee wrote:

Oh no.. oh please God no.

I love snow, absolutely love it but I am due a baby in 11 days time... please tell me... how likely is this snow to arrive? I'm in County Louth.... the idea of snow on the roads and me trying to get to the hospital... Holy Lord, please tell me ye're messing

Well, while there is a theoretical possibility as there always is, the chances of disruption are slim, so nothing to be worried about for moment. Give it 5-6 days, and the finer details of the weather for near end of month will become more clear.

And good luck

I've a 4 month old on my lap at moment, so still quite fresh

Gonzo

ha if it snows here next weekend (27/28/29th January) i wont even get to see it as i'll be in edinburgh.

Gonzo

metcheck have posted alot of snow for dublin from Saturday 28th January to Friday 3rd of February with a daytime high of -1C for Tuesday 31st of January.
oh please god let this work out for once.

Gordon

Earthman asked me to check this thread out in the coming days/week as I live in Athens, Greece.

When I read his pm I must say that I was skeptical at the thought of a big chill here soon as I was looking out into a beautiful mild (cold for Greeks) and sunny day. But then two minutes later some clouds came over the lip of the bowl of Athens to the East and it started raining. So thanks Con, you've jinxed us, and I don't even have a brolly!

We're all hoping for a bit of snow here to be honest, as much as people gripe about the cold (and the heat) they want to see snow, and if it is anything like it was two years ago there will be joy. So if you are after snow over there in Ireland - I reckon Greece will get it for a few reasons:

- We had major snow two years ago and last year was very mild in Feb/March, it was like we had no winter.
- We won the European cup thing at football when everyone, including the Greeks, thought we had no chance.
- And we want it more than you!!! hahaaarrrr!!

Either way, I hope someone gets a bit of snow but jaysis I hope it won't be as bad as Moscow..

Gonzo

i want it to be bad:) after 14 years of barely anything I want to see 10+ inchs, a week long event at least, subzero every day, icles from the roofs, roads closed, everyone off school & work outside enjoying the snow taking pictures, posting here on the forum, building snowmen and snowbabes, building snow castles.... just one week of a snowkingdom in ireland is all I ask for. At the same time tho I dont want any powercuts! If it works out for us this time it could be another 15/20 years away again till the next dumping of snow and by then we'll all be too old to enjoy it properly.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

metcheck have posted alot of snow for dublin from Saturday 28th January to Friday 3rd of February with a daytime high of -1C for Tuesday 31st of January.
oh please god let this work out for once.

LoL
I see that,I put in Wicklow and Wexford and the same results.
About 15cms.

Huge bucket of salt with that though as they are basing it on FI GFS charts.It may or may not happen.This mornings run has posters over on TWO upset already...

I notice in the Late FI charts, theres a big maratime low with NW winds at first and then NE winds with potentially very cold air in both especially with the NE winds.
But if that low was cauught up in -35c 500mb air,I think those Nwesterlies would bring Durrow a lot of snow.

What has me interested in the chart though is the pressure remains very low in the Irish sea as do the temps in the East so It looks very snowy to me, if it came off.

Very interesting synoptics potentially over the next 2 to 3 weeks, so hopefully it wont go wrong

Oh and welcome aboard Gordon

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2042.png


Yum yum

OK this is getting extremely interesting now...

Lets do a check list of whats available in this FI run

• 20 knott east wind
• -10 850 air over the whole Irish sea
• low pressure (less than 1015mb)
• high pressure positioned in NW scandinavia
• a cold pool feed running all the way to Siberia
• Greenland pressure rising and azores low pressure meaning the Atlantic goes to sleep

Basically more than the 4 things I said earlier in this thread that were needed for lots of snow
Yup if this was the chart at t72-96 I'd be getting very excited as regards extreme cold ICE and snow

As it stands, its 8 days out and not too deep into FI territory
Monday and Tuesdays runs will be crucial but its looking very good so far

Jeepers,Mariah and joseph :eek:

According to this run and bear in mind ,GFS usually over does temps positively, we would see 5 or 6 ice days (ie sub zero maxima) in the East!!

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn26417.png

Just look at the blue minus 1 shade bulging across the Irish sea and into the East and midlands and thats despite a stiff onshore wind.

That would feel bitter,bone chillingly bitter.

If it were to come off...

Thats the type of winter spell I remember from the 80's when the washing used freeze on the line in the middle of the day...

LFCFan

Lads Lads Lads. Have yis learnt nothing yet. Do you not realise that talking about it and hoping for it will just make it not happen. It's a scientific FACT, that if you wish for something too hard, it won't happen. I swear it's true. I've wished for a Lotto win for years and I've never won it so it has to be true

Supercell

Indeed, I think the venerable Earthman is coming down with WC'itus!!

Two runs out of 10 supporting the cold snap on the 12z in FI, hardly partytime!!

Still, its like thinking what would I do if I won the lotto..pretty intoxicating !!

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Indeed, I think the venerable Earthman is coming down with WC'itus!!

Two runs out of 10 supporting the cold snap on the 12z in FI, hardly partytime!!

Still, its like thinking what would I do if I won the lotto..pretty intoxicating !!

Not at all

I am hopefull and wont be coming down with wc'itis untill I see this type of thing on Tuesday...
I suspect you will have that disease then too if ....


Other than that,I'm happy that theres more cold out to the East than I've seen in 15 or 20 years plus theres been two scandy highs so far this winter so ,I'm pretty much hopefull.

I wont be in tears if it doesnt happen.
And untill Tuesday or wenesday,I wouldnt be surprised if it doesnt happen.
But I'm thinking more than 50:50 in favour.

Supercell

Have to agree with you there there, have to admit its been a long while (too long!!) since a real proper 80's style freeze up has happened on the continent, the potential is definately there, my fingers have been burned so many times in the last few years predicting the BIG one that its all on hold until maybe T96..if still there ..its do a jig time though

ninebeanrows

yea i have a feeling this won't be the "big" one but i can see a decent snowfall
happening from it. A 5 days spell of temps of 0-3c with snow showers and
possibly a front or two.

At the moment its wait wait wait and maybe we might just see.

I'd like to stress that my personal opinion is that February will be a very cold month overall
with many cold spells.

Danno

Bloody Hell, those charts are very consistant for the last few days now...

Confidence rising...

If by Wednesday's 1200hrs model run, it is still the same then I'll be greasing up the sleigh...

lucernarian

The edge of an acceptable timeframe really but still only a week away:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1681.png
A true easterly caused by HP ridging over to Scandanavia from Siberia.

The GFS model is sticking to its guns for something like 3 or 4 days now yeah? Things are looking better and better, though what we're seeing on the models will not be as severe as 1982, for example, so far. More along the lines of 1996. I still have to be pragmatic and treat them as unlikely. I can't be let down then;)

And Earthman is a true ramper this evening:)

Danno

Go on Earthman ya good thing! :P :P :P Ramp it up

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

what we're seeing on the models will not be as severe as 1982, for example, so far.

I know its FI, but that said,I wouldnt agree there in the sense that january 1982 was an Easterly that trapped an atlantic low pressure system on the East coast , with most of Ireland on the cold side of it-thats more than possible in some of these cold outliers.Tonights for instance has introduced a low of 970mb that if it exists and went in would do the damage.Most of the runs in the past couple of days have provided the fodder for significant snow shower capability in an Easterly feed off the Irish sea-ie manna from heaven from a snow point of view in Eastern coastal counties.

More along the lines of 1996.

That was a Northerly-Good for Ulster North connaught, maybe North Leinster and the midlands...but good for a few inches only usually and no where near the potential of a good siberian sourced Easterly.

And Earthman is a true ramper this evening:)

Yeah somebody has to do it...

Gonzo

breaking away from the exciting easterly for a second, do you think Weatherchecks thoughts on snow tonight from the backedge of the cold front from the northwest could produce anything at all or is it just way to mild for anything to come of it?