Cheltenham Ante-Post thoughts

D'arkness

Monkerhostin 12's and Hedgehunter 20's for the Gold Cup.

Also Fancy

Brave Inca for the champion hurdle,
Justified for the Arcle chase
and after yesterday with good to soft Nickname will do the business.

ChuckProphet

where you getting monkerhostin at 12-1?

kc66

I backed War of Attrition e/w at 33/1 ages ago. Not as sure about him now after the last few races but still think he could do well.

D'arkness

ChuckProphet wrote:

where you getting monkerhostin at 12-1?

Got him a fortnight ago on PP at 12's and Hedgehunter at 20's
Both to win but regretting i didn't take Hedgehunter E/W as the priorities on the Gold Cup / Grand National remain unknown.

fr wishy washy

D'arkness wrote:

Both to win but regretting i didn't take Hedgehunter E/W as the priorities on the Gold Cup / Grand National remain unknown.

Going for Both afaik.

Healio

I would consider Cornish Rebel if ruby were to be aboard.

Morgans

Nickname is a very doubtful runner at the festival, and i wouldnt recommend any ante post bets on him. The only time to back him is when the non-runner no bet rule comes into play - the weekend before the festival usually.

ErinGoBrath

This year will be my first year at Cheltenham. Really looking forward to it.

All I need to know now is what horse's I'll back. For the last few years I've made a killing. Hopefully I'll manage the same again at the track.

All tips welcome lads

fr wishy washy

Morgans wrote:

Nickname is a very doubtful runner at the festival, and i wouldnt recommend any ante post bets on him. The only time to back him is when the non-runner no bet rule comes into play - the weekend before the festival usually.

Outstanding novice/jumper imo,can anyone remember seeing a better Jumper
at this stage of their career?.

masterK

fr wishy washy wrote:

Outstanding novice/jumper imo,can anyone remember seeing a better Jumper
at this stage of their career?.

He looks like some horse all right, it's just a pity he needs soft ground, it looks unlikely that he will line up at Cheltenham.

keano442

my ante-post bets will be:

the railway man (arkle, 33/1)
fota island (champion chase, 10/1)
our ben (sun alliance chase, 25/1)

k.

20LEgend

My only one so far is:

United - 40/1 (Champion Hurdle)


This horse has won me quite a bit of money

span

I think Feathard Lady will romp home in the Champion hurdle. I have a large ante post be on her.

fr wishy washy

span wrote:

I think Feathard Lady will romp home in the Champion hurdle. I have a large ante post be on her.

Is that Horse not on the easy list/injured?.

kc66

fr wishy washy wrote:

Is that Horse not on the easy list/injured?.

Well Im glad I dont have a large bet on it. It was listed as doubtful in something I was reading the other day.

fr wishy washy

Harchibald officially out for the rest of the season.

span

fr wishy washy wrote:

Is that Horse not on the easy list/injured?.

She's out of the Irish champion hurdle but Colm Murphy is hopful she'll be fit for Cheltenham.

bignialler

What do yiz think of Moscows chances, bit of a gamble on him since studmaster won on Sunday.... best priced 7/2 with ladbrokes...?

I did a small double last week with him at 5/1 & Justified @ 7/1..

fr wishy washy

bignialler wrote:

What do yiz think of Moscows chances, bit of a gamble on him since studmaster won on Sunday.... best priced 7/2 with ladbrokes...?

I did a small double last week with him at 5/1 & Justified @ 7/1..

I think the years might be finally catching up with him (Moscow),I'm not sure Cheltenham suits Justified as he ran a stinker there last year at the festival.
I hope I'm wrong though as they will be both well supported from this side of the water.

Morgans

There is only one banker for the festival. Get on Denman for the Sun Alliance Hurdle. 5/1 is huge.

masterK

Morgans wrote:

There is only one banker for the festival. Get on Denman for the Sun Alliance Hurdle. 5/1 is huge.

At this point it is hard to argue with that, his destruction of a top class field in what was probably the best novice race to be ran so far makes him stand out in his division. Although I'm not so sure about using the term banker when talking about novices, especially with a few months to go before the festival and the possibility of another couple of unknown contenders emerging.

Morgans

Possibly, and if the ground is good to firm or harder, he might not run. It will take a big performance from any novice to head Denman in the market. I like Mr Noise and Nicanor but they would have a lot to prove. The Sun Alliance Hurdle is probably the best race for bankers in recent years - probably because apart from one notable exception there are less flys in the ointments with horses coming off the flat. Bankers like Monseignor, Barton, French Holly, Istabraq, Danoli have all won the race, backed as bankers and they came good. Doesnt mean that will happen this year, but he coudl be the most talented horse that has raced on the racetrack this season, outside of Moscow Flyer.

fr wishy washy

We havn't had soft ground in years at the Festival so maybe this year we are due one (easy going).Would make this particular race very interesting as it would bring the Irish novices into it (Travinio etc)

masterK

I wouldn't count on soft ground, somehow the ground of Cheltenham rarely seems to get soft even in the midst of winter. The ground is always a huge problem for punters backing Irish novices at Cheltenham, it's quite often impossible to know how they will handle it having only raced on soft or heavy ground in Ireland.

Morgans

I'm not a big Kauto Star fan but for some reason he has drifted to 4.4 on betfair. I think its because studmaster won the pierse and Moscow has been cut after a tipping line (Irisis) put him up. Bookies have it right, he should be about 9/4, 100/30 is way too big. He should canter home in the game spirit.

It is more than likely that the ground would be good good to soft at worst for the first day of the festival. Safe jumping ground. Travino is one of a number of horses that are talented but are effectively ruled out of Chelt - Jazz d'Estruval, Nickname? another due to the drainage system. Soft ground isnt impossible, but you cannot back ante post on the assumption that a horse is value if it comes up soft. If you do fancy an ante post horse who is value should teh ground turn up soft, you really do need to wait until the week before where weather forecast is more reliable. I dont think Travino is good enough in any case. Would fancy Nicanor to turn the tables over 2m4f if they met again. Given the likely ground conditions, Travino could well go for the 3m. But I think he will be entered in both, and connections will wait for the weather to help them decide.

Morgans

OUr Ben is too big a price for the SAC also. He was unlucky to bump into Nickname at Christmas, and stepping up in trip, on ground he would enjoy, he is probably the best value left in the festival. Darkness is overrated, and he will need to do better than defeating Zabenz to win an ordinary sun alliance. If it is soft The Listener comes into play. My two against the field would be Our Ben and Bewleys Berry, who is likely to step up again when tried over 3m at Chelt. But Our Ben is good value at 20s at the mo.

Morgans

Just to note that the 5/1 is going in places about Denman.

The jock

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
De Soto 25 - 1

Arkle chase
Racing Demon 5/1

Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca 4/1

Royal & SunAll Nov' Hdle
Denman 9/2

Royal & SunAlliance Chase
The Listener 10/1

Queen Mother Champ Chase
Kario De Sormain 12/1

Champion Bumper
Pepperoni Pete 12/1

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Al Eile 14/1

Triumph Hurdle
Noend 40/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Celestial Gold 14/1

fr wishy washy

span wrote:

I think Feathard Lady will romp home in the Champion hurdle. I have a large ante post be on her.

In the words of the trainer and I quote "If she keeps on going the way She is going right now then we will make the Festival". from todays Irish Times so good luck to yeh.............:)

D'arkness

The jock wrote:

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
De Soto 25 - 1

Arkle chase
Racing Demon 5/1

Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca 4/1

Royal & SunAll Nov' Hdle
Denman 9/2

Royal & SunAlliance Chase
The Listener 10/1

Queen Mother Champ Chase
Kario De Sormain 12/1

Champion Bumper
Pepperoni Pete 12/1

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Al Eile 14/1

Triumph Hurdle
Noend 40/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Celestial Gold 14/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Iktitaf 10/1

Arkle chase
Accordion Etoile 5/1

Champion Hurdle
Brave Inca 4/1

Royal & SunAll Nov' Hdle
Denman 9/2

Royal & SunAlliance Chase
The Listener 10/1

Queen Mother Champ Chase
Fota Island 10/1

Champion Bumper
-

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Baracouda

Triumph Hurdle
-

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Monkerhostin & Hedgehunter

Morgans

But Our Ben is good value at 20s at the mo.

Down to 16s after winning over an inadequate 2m yesterday. He is still the value. The best wont be seen of him until he runs over 3m and beyond.

jayroyal

jack ingham for the bumper eddie o grady trains and has a great record there he also fuul brother to the once brilliant nick dundee and ned kelly. 14/1 with paddy:eek:

Morgans

Just a short update on the chelt situation.

Denamn into a best priced 4s.
Our Ben now best priced 14s.

Its bubbling up nicely.

masterK

Morgans wrote:

Just a short update on the chelt situation.

Denamn into a best priced 4s.
Our Ben now best priced 14s.

Its bubbling up nicely.

It looks like Denman will be running at Cheltenham this weekend.

clusk007

I placed a 50euro antepost double on 'Feathard Lady' and 'Denman'! Will i still get paid for 'Denman' if he wins?

fade2black

clusk007 wrote:

I placed a 50euro antepost double on 'Feathard Lady' and 'Denman'! Will i still get paid for 'Denman' if he wins?

Yep

clusk007

Grand. Im not familar with antepost rules and i was bricking it there for a minute!

Morgans

I wouldn't have thought so clusk007. Its a bitch when it happens, check the small print of the bookies where you placed the bet - or ring them up. I think it will be bad news though, sorry to say.

i dont want to go on about this, but it seems anytime i post an update here, the two horses' prices shorten. Pox really.

Denman, now best priced 4/1, generally 7/2, and 3/1 in a place. Hope he wins on Saturday
Our Ben, now best priced 14/1, generally 12/1, and 10/1 in places.

At least the value was got.

fade2black

Ante-Post Rules

ANTE-POST bets being bets made before 10.00 a.m. on the day preceding the event are accepted on the basis of all-in run or not, all-in enter or not, and therefore should a selection be a non-runner, or be scratched the bet will be a losing one. A selection placed ante-post will be void only if the race is abandoned or the horse is balloted out under Jockey Club rule 121. When such a selection is included in a multiple bet the remaining selections will stand and be settled at ante-post prices. Accumulative Ante-post wagers are settled on the same basis as starting price wagers, thus two horses at 20 to 1 and 16 to 1 would be reckoned as 356 to 1 the double. The minimum stake for ante-post, win or place, for singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators is £1.00. The minimum total per slip is Two Pounds. We reserve the right to rectify any error in a voucher or account through miscalculation or clerical error, and vouchers are issued on these conditions. Any-to-come or up-and-down bets are not accepted in respect of ante-post wagers. Place Doubles, Trebles, etc., are reckoned at cumulative odds at one-fifth or one-quarter the odds according to the rules governing the place odds of the races involved.

Morgans

That's very interesting Fade2Black. I didn't know that. Its a generous offer. Where did you get those terms and conditions from. PP? I'm still not sure that all bookies regard ante post bets that way. Its a huge advantage to the punter if I am reading those terms and conditions correctly.

If Denman in injured in the morning, can clusk007 ask for his stake back? Superb development if you can. Maybe it was always this way.

fade2black

I think Clusk007 should check with his own bookie for this one because there's probably a mixed bag of rulings for this particular situation.

Morgans

Sorry Fade2Black, can you let me know where you got those terms and conditions. Whichever bookie it was will get preferential treatment for any ante-post bets I will have in the future.

Mabye all bookies have that ruling?

[nicK]

i'm pretty sure those rules fade quoted are from the paddypower website.. i remember reading something similar in the t&cs there a while back..

Morgans

All racing ante-post bets are accepted and settled on a Rules of Racing basis only. Ante-post bets are accepted at quoted prices, up to and including the day prior to the event, on the basis of all in, run or not, entered or not .Therefore selections not taking part in the race/event concerned are losers. Ante-post bets are those placed at our quoted prices on horses and prior to the race becoming classed as ‘Day of Event’ (Day of event is a term used to describe the time at which overnight declarations are made, usually 10am on the day preceding the race (or two days for certain Group 1 races) for horse racing and the day of the race for greyhounds).All bets placed after the overnight declaration stage are settled in accordance with our Early Prices/Day of Race Rules. In line with principals laid down by Tattersalls Rules of Racing ante-post bets will be void under the following circumstances, otherwise bets stand.

From the website of one Patrick Power. clusk007 should check this out with whatever bookie he placed the bet with, but as I mentioned before, whichever bookie Fade2Black got those terms and conditions will get my ante post bets from now on.

I wonder if you could double any ante post bet you have with Chelsea winning the premiership, thereby should the horse not run, you have a sure fire winner (virtually). I dont think many bookies would allow this.

Morgans

Reading the original post again about Fade2Black's bookies. There is no difference between those terms and those in PP.

clusk007 unfortunately will not get paid if denman wins and Feathard Lady doesnt run.

If your antepost bet doesnt run, you ahve essentially backed a loser, not a non-runner, and your multiple is lost.

fade2black

Morgans may very well be right Clusk...you'll have to check with your bookie. Thinking about it now, ante-post rules have never really changed - no run =loser. And if you have one loser in a double then that's the double gone. I was thinking more in terms of a multiple.

clusk007

Got a reply from PP today and its not good news

'This bet would be considered a looser as a non-runner under ante-post conditions is a lose.'

Its put me right off backing antepost!!

fade2black

Yep that's the danger of it alright. Sorry mate.

Morgans

Denman, now best priced 4/1, generally 7/2, and 3/1 in a place. Hope he wins on Saturday
Our Ben, now best priced 14/1, generally 12/1, and 10/1 in places.

The money still is coming in for this pair.

Denman - best priced 7/2 now.
Our Ben - best priced 12/1 now.

Can I add to this, that if Nickname turns up for the irish Arkle on Sunday - the 13/8 about the horse on William Hill will look huge. He will blast Justified away early doors, (justified is probably better right handed - and even though Dusty Sheehy went to Newbury to try to disprove the theory but was hard pushed to beat Cornish Sett) Nickname will probably go at it from the start over the 2m distance and it will be up to Missed That to chase him down. despite his grade 1 win last time, you couldnt trust missed that to keep tabs on the leading pair - with their jumping prowess. Nickname could come home alone. I was thinking of putting too much on him - but I need to find a ground update. Soft ground probably isnt essential to him but if it were heavy he wuold be as close as a certainty that I can imagine. (I dont think it will be heavy)
At the moment, I would price the race at 4/5 Nickname, Justified 5/2, Missed THat 3/1 Mansony 8/1

masterK

Morgans, trying to find out the advance going for any Irish meetings is almost impossible, I've been down that road many times before. You would think such a critical piece of information would be quite widely available, you'd be wrong. Now, on the other hand if you like to know how to book a table for lunch, well then that's easy to find out.

I wouldn't expect the ground to be heavy, it may not even be soft. The going at Gowran today is good to yeilding. The forecast is for very cold weather with no rain at all, so that could harden the ground up, on the other hand Leopardstown has taken a fair bit of racing recently so that may have affected the ground. It's questionable if Nickname will run, especially if there is any frost on Saturday night.

fade2black

But I think they have it in their minds to get in a big one before the end of the season and I'd say they'll go for the Irish rather than the England one. Whatever chance of the ground being softish this sunday, PP are offering odds of 100-1 that the going will say heavy anywhere in the title come Cheltenham. In saying that I wouldn't be surprised if he was pulled out on sunday and was put away for a while.