anaylise my play......pair 9s

bombinator

i was in fitz recently and had a large stack about 11,000 after the break in the friday night game,,,,,,,,
i picked up 99 in the middle position seat 6 with no callers so far..blinds were 150,300..........so i raised it up to a 1000 to play....
the big blind with a stack about 6000 decide to call altough looked like he did not want to........
flop game 2 8 4 to of which were spades,,,,,the bb raised it 1000.i tought it was he may have A8/A4 SO I RE RAISED HIM ALL IN another 4000 tousand..
he took an age to make his decision and finally called and stood up ready to leave..however to my shock he turned over k5 of spades,,
obviously he hit flush on river.......
what do ye think of my play here.,,,
as i was large chip leader did i need tp play my 99 OR was my origional raise to small.
even if i tought he was on flush draw was it correct call to put him all in ...........
i lost my concentration after this hand as i was furies with his play with k5...how do i regain composure after losing half my stack

nikorami

First of all, a bit of info missing..What was your stack in relation to the rest of the table? That also makes a difference...

nikorami

Remember 99 is not that great of a hand. If you are going to play middle pairs you need to play them stronger. I would have made it 1500 to call(5x the BB) maybe even bigger. Thats 1/4 of his stack but only about 10% yours.

Now..for all intensive purposes it was pretty much a bad call by the guy. That being said..What did you put him on???? Thats the Key..Before the flop you say he was hesitant...But how did he play previously..What type of player has he been to this point. His hesitancy could be AQ, 77, 88, 44, even 22. He could have flopped a set when he came out betting.

He bet 1000 into a 2000 pot. And you raised 4000 to win 3000. HMMM..Not the best, but anyways....a Call might have been better. At the very least you have to put the guy on the spade draw or the gut shot straight...If he was a marginal player, A3 and 67 are logical. If he had overcards he his still not that far behind. If he was a good player, he may have trapped you with a bigger pair. Wait and see. Why risk all your stack. My point being that there were way to many scenarios in play here.

You didn't do anything "WRONG", just against to many variables.

As far as your composure...that appears to be a demon for you....If you consider that there were so many variables at play, then there was no need to get upset(TILT). Think of it like this: If you were sitting on a water dunking machine and 50 people were throwing balls at the lever that dunks you in the water, are you gonna get mad when you get dunked...Only get mad when someone hits there 2 outer! LOL

May the turn and river be with you!

Norwich Fan Rob

I dont see much wrong with your play, u had him well covered, and you were 66% to win the hand, and there was a fair chance he woulda passed.

I dont think i woulda played it much differently to the way u played it.

You certainly cant pass 99 pre flop in an unraised pot in mid pos, especially with a decent stack, and he shoulda passed his hand pre flop.

Post flop, u got a decent enough board for 99, unlikely u are behind, like u said fair chance he has A8, A4 etc, and even with flush draw, u are clear fav to win the hand.

I dont agree that u can just call the 1000 here, as u want to win the pot here and now with this hand, too much chance of over cards on the turn. You pre flop raise and all in clearly define u have some type of over pair, and he should lay most hands down here.

I would have made it 1500 pre flop though i think.

Waylander

Preflop raise could have been a bit bigger but was still 3BB and should really have been enough to scare him away. He should have laid down to your reraise post flop, which I think was a good move. You got outdrawn and that happens. His actions when he went all in were to try and get you to make the call, I am sure he did not have you on Ax spades. Any over pair would probably have reraised you preflop or would almost certainly have bet more then half the pot on the flop to a board with 2 of the same suit. You played the hand pretty weel, you just got outdrawn.

nikorami

Again...He did not do anything wrong.

But to my main point, there were too many variables(Possible outcomes). IMHO, I am quite a succesful player and have learned from some of the best. One of the most common key to success among all of them is the elimination of these variables. Did you all see Gus call with 810 against 77 in the toruney the other day. He eliminated a ton of variables prior to making the call, right or wrong, thats what he did. I believe that bit of saavy can and will change a persons game. Years ago I would have done the same, I made a conscious change and it has paid great dividends. Have a think....play some hands by yourselves and focus on that. All IMHO though! GL

BigDragon

nikorami wrote:

Again...He did not do anything wrong.

But to my main point, there were too many variables(Possible outcomes). IMHO, I am quite a succesful player and have learned from some of the best. One of the most common key to success among all of them is the elimination of these variables. Did you all see Gus call with 810 against 77 in the toruney the other day. He eliminated a ton of variables prior to making the call, right or wrong, thats what he did. I believe that bit of saavy can and will change a persons game. Years ago I would have done the same, I made a conscious change and it has paid great dividends. Have a think....play some hands by yourselves and focus on that. All IMHO though! GL

Heah Nikorami. Welcome to boards.

Can you expand on this and maybe start a new thread for it. Im very interested in this statement.

Ste05

You played this hand fine. I'd make it 1200 pre-flop, as a standard, however if this 1,000 was the standard for the table or for you opening, then it was fine. You played it perfectly post flop.

Calling here on the flop is just too timid and bad play IMO. This is basically the perfect flop for you. He didn't have the odds to call here, you offered him 1.75:1 and he needed at least 2.1:1 or so, to call, so this push was a +EV move.

You also had huge fold equity, and normally this donkey won't call here, (both pre-flop and post-flop) having said that, you want him to call with this type of crap. So it's a bit of a conundrum....

EDIT: Obviously the above is all based on no read (didn't see one specified)

As for the Tilt, as you see more and more of these donkey plays and outdraws, you'll learn to handle it,:cool: in fact you could also look at it the other way, and just rub your hands together and say Happy Days, I have a donkey at the table and he pays off good hands.:D (normally he'll pay and not outdraw you :rolleyes: ) and just make a note to yourself not to bluff him too often and just try and value bet your good hands into him.

Ste05

BigDragon wrote:

Heah Nikorami. Welcome to boards.

Can you expand on this and maybe start a new thread for it. Im very interested in this statement.

Indeed, interesting points, please do go on...

fuzzbox

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

I dont see much wrong with your play, u had him well covered, and you were 66% to win the hand, and there was a fair chance he woulda passed.

A K would win it for villain also - making villain only a small underdog, not 33% as you suggest.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

You played this hand fine. I'd make it 1200 pre-flop, as a standard, however if this 1,000 was the standard for the table or for you opening, then it was fine. You played it perfectly post flop.

Calling here on the flop is just too timid and bad play IMO. This is basically the perfect flop for you. He didn't have the odds to call here, you offered him 1.75:1 and he needed at least 2.1:1 or so, to call, so this push was a +EV move.

You also had huge fold equity, and normally this donkey won't call here, (both pre-flop and post-flop) having said that, you want him to call with this type of crap. So it's a bit of a conundrum....

EDIT: Obviously the above is all based on no read (didn't see one specified)

As for the Tilt, as you see more and more of these donkey plays and outdraws, you'll learn to handle it,:cool: in fact you could also look at it the other way, and just rub your hands together and say Happy Days, I have a donkey at the table and he pays off good hands.:D (normally he'll pay and not outdraw you :rolleyes: ) and just make a note to yourself not to bluff him too often and just try and value bet your good hands into him.

You REALLY want him to FOLD his draw here. You are only a small favourite. You could wait until the turn, call the flop and get away if a spade hits. His most likely hand is a flush draw. you can then get the rest of the money in on the turn when you are a big favourite. If he hits his K on the turn, then you pay him off.

Or you could push and hope he folds, but donkeys who call a raise with K5s dont intend folding when they hit a flush draw.

Norwich Fan Rob

how can u be sure his most likely hand is a flush draw, all he did was bet 1000, could just as easily have 8x here or even a hand like 55 or 66, or in fact a gut shot str8, all of which is an instant fold to your push.
99% of donkeys here dont bet a set.
So worst case is in fact the flush draw, and even then , u are still fav.

Gholimoli

i dont think you did anything wrong here as other have said.
i agree with a higher raise preflop because 99 is a difficult hand to play post flop unless your a very strong post flop player and have good reads on your villian.
that said i dont like the all in push even though i may have made it my self.
it depends on how your table is to be honest.you have 11K in chips but you have not said anything about the stack of others at your table.
if the average stack on ur table is around 6K then your surely find better spots to make the most of your big stack than to push with 99 on a 8 high board.remember you dont know what he has.
if he played a PP smaller than yours ,then 3 of them has just made a set.
if he has played a higher PP then he has you beat.
he heads out on the flop with two spades on it.
does that mean he is putting in a blocking bet ,or is he trying to protect his made hand from a draw?
pushing and putting pressure on ppl is usually +EV but the reason is because you count on your FE.your FE decreases greatly with playing donkeys and its ur job to figure out who thoes donkeys are.

Jaden

fuzzbox wrote:

Or you could push and hope he folds, but donkeys who call a raise with K5s dont intend folding when they hit a flush draw.

Amen Brother.

This hand was well played, so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. I would have raised bigger preflop (5xBB). Raising to 1K means that the BB only has to add 700 to a 1450 pot. In his position (and let's face it, to be a decent player you have to be able to put yourself in the other guy's shoes), with K5s, I might think that a large stack is having a go at an unraised pot, with a marginal hand, like A8 or Q10. If this is what he thinks, then the call pre-flop is justified.

Your post-flop play is fine. I would have just called the 1000 bet on the flop. This is a weak bet, and smells of flush draw, or hitting a pair. I might have then pushed on the turn, assuming (as was in this case) no 3rd spade or board pairing. Donkeys will often think twice about commiting all their chips with a flush draw after turn, but be far more inclined to do it post flop. Just an observation.

I know my play ends up the same way as yours, but if I think the guy is a Outdrawing Megamuppet (TM), I let him hand himself, more often than not, he will.

Ste05

fuzzbox wrote:

You REALLY want him to FOLD his draw here. You are only a small favourite. You could wait until the turn, call the flop and get away if a spade hits. His most likely hand is a flush draw. you can then get the rest of the money in on the turn when you are a big favourite. If he hits his K on the turn, then you pay him off.

Or you could push and hope he folds, but donkeys who call a raise with K5s dont intend folding when they hit a flush draw.

Where to begin with this...
1) You have no way of knowing he has a flush draw here. And it's certainly not his most likely hand.
2) As I said you WANT him to call with his draw, the LAST thing you want to do is let him draw for free, so what is the only option, YOU PUSH!! He'll call with any draw (you're favourite) or a pair (you're favourite) probably any two over cards (again you're favourite) or when you're drawing thin - (i.e. a set, two pair or a badly played over pair)

All in all, I'm fairly sure the push is +EV, don't have the time to do the maths, but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't

Marq

standard.

Doctor Fell

Ste05 wrote:

Where to begin with this...
1) You have no way of knowing he has a flush draw here. And it's certainly not his most likely hand.
2) As I said you WANT him to call with his draw, the LAST thing you want to do is let him draw for free, so what is the only option, YOU PUSH!! He'll call with any draw (you're favourite) or a pair (you're favourite) probably any two over cards (again you're favourite) or when you're drawing thin - (i.e. a set, two pair or a badly played over pair)

I agree that Bombinator played it fine, just was unlucky. I also think the push is absolutely right on the flop, but for different reasons. The flush draw is a likely hand in my opinion, and you don't want him calling with his draw here. The pot's big enough as it is (10 BBs) to take down right now. If he calls he's got 2 chances to hit his flush or King - so you'll win roughly(!!) 60% of the time. But you win a decent sized pot every time he folds.

So 2 scenarios:
1) u win a decent pot uncontested every time
or
2) you win a larger pot 60% of the time, but lose half your tank 40% of the time.

Me personally, I would choose scenario 1 every time. Therefore, you want him to fold his draw.

Lafortezza

If the OP put Villain on a flush draw with maybe a pair, another way to play it would be to call Villains flop bet and if the turn is safe for you, put the Villain all-in on the turn.
People with flush draws would be more likely to fold on the turn with only one card to come for all their chips.

Norwich Fan Rob

highly unlikely he flat calls your 1k raise with 1010 - AA pre flop, especially with his stack size.
even more unlikely he leads 1k here with a flopped set, he cant be worried about u having a flush draw with your raise pre flop.

He has, 8x, nothing, small pp, gutshot str8, or flush draw, he folds 3 of these, maybe all 4 to a push.

As for playing K5 cause its ONLY 700 more into a 1400 pot, i wont even go there...........

Doctor Fell

lafortezza wrote:

If the OP put Villain on a flush draw with maybe a pair, another way to play it would be to call Villains flop bet and if the turn is safe for you, put the Villain all-in on the turn.
People with flush draws would be more likely to fold on the turn with only one card to come for all their chips.

You could play it that way of course, but I personally don't like that. Mainly because what happens if a non-flush making high card (10->Ace) hits the turn, and he goes all in? U don't know where u stand now, because you could be a huge dog if he's just hit top pair.
You're also just giving a free card on the flop to an underdog, in what is already a big enough pot (I think it's fair to say that you're not that big a favourite anyway to be giving free cards). So I'd definitely try to win it on the flop with an all-in raise.

Waylander

Flat calling his bet is giving free a free card to hit whatever hand he is drawing to. I don't like that at all, I think the push here is definitely correct.

Amaru

lafortezza wrote:

If the OP put Villain on a flush draw with maybe a pair, another way to play it would be to call Villains flop bet and if the turn is safe for you, put the Villain all-in on the turn.
People with flush draws would be more likely to fold on the turn with only one card to come for all their chips.

I'd be inclined to push here, but i actually really like this. It's a smart play. It allows you to get away from your hand easily, but also puts your opponent to a tough decision, depending on what falls on the turn. The hard part is figuring out what cards you should be scared of on the turn. Besides any spade, whats a bad card in this scenario? Another 8? An unsuited A or K? I find determining scare cards to be the hardest part of playing fragile hands on multiple streets.

Ste05

OK, I missed your point there Doctor Fell, I thought you weren't advocating a push, :rolleyes:

You need to remember, what happens after you push doesn't matter, all that matters is whether the play was right or not. Whether he calls or not with a draw is irrelevant. You can't look at results to see if the play was correct, i.e. as here, the correct play lost and the incorrect play (2 donkish calls) won.

Ste05

Amaru wrote:

I'd be inclined to push here, but i actually really like this. It's a smart play. It allows you to get away from your hand easily, but also puts your opponent to a tough decision, depending on what falls on the turn. The hard part is figuring out what cards you should be scared of on the turn. Besides any spade, whats a bad card in this scenario? Another 8? An unsuited A or K? I find determining scare cards to be the hardest part of playing fragile hands on multiple streets.

That's the problem with laf's play, any overcard is scary, even pairing the board is scary, a low non club card, is about all you can hope for. Say much less than half the remaining deck...

Doctor Fell

Ste05 wrote:

You need to remember, what happens after you push doesn't matter, all that matters is whether the play was right or not. Whether he calls or not with a draw is irrelevant. You can't look at results to see if the play was correct, i.e. as here, the correct play lost and the incorrect play (2 donkish calls) won.

I'm not advocating looking at the result to determine whether the play is right. I was giving reasons why in theory the push is right. The 2 scenarios were a theoretical example in response to you saying that u want the guy to call with the draw. I was arguing that in theory it's better for the raiser if the BB doesn't call. It's perfectly valid to examine what could happen in order to figure out whether in theory u want a caller or not!:D
This doesn't reflect on the merit of the push - it reflects on the whether ur better off with a caller or not!

Ste05

OK, did I say I wanted a call with a flush draw?? Just looked back and see what you're talking about.

I just meant that you can't give him the free card, i.e. charging him to draw, so he calls (if he wants to) instead of giving a free card away. Sorry for the confusion, badly written. I'd prefer him to fold, (he's actually a 50:50 with the over card too, but he can't know that, and as is the general consensus the push is still correct), normally this guy will fold. The pot is enough to take down here.

Amaru

Waylander wrote:

Flat calling his bet is giving free a free card to hit whatever hand he is drawing to. I don't like that at all, I think the push here is definitely correct.

It's not a free card if your opponent has bet out. The only thing thats different is that instead of you setting the odds for your opponent to draw to his hand, he has set them himself, giving himself 1/3 odds of hitting his flush if his opponent calls his bet.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

Where to begin with this...
1) You have no way of knowing he has a flush draw here. And it's certainly not his most likely hand.
2) As I said you WANT him to call with his draw, the LAST thing you want to do is let him draw for free, so what is the only option, YOU PUSH!! He'll call with any draw (you're favourite) or a pair (you're favourite) probably any two over cards (again you're favourite) or when you're drawing thin - (i.e. a set, two pair or a badly played over pair)

All in all, I'm fairly sure the push is +EV, don't have the time to do the maths, but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't

1. If he has a pair lower than 99 then we are happy that he has bet and we have no reason to take him off his hand so CALL is the best option.
2. If he has a flush draw, then he almost certainly has at least one big card to go with it (card bigger than 9). We are 50/50 Vs that hand, and he wont fold here very often, so if we call and wait for the turn, we shade the odds in our favour, and if a flush card hits and he bets, then we can pass.
3. We are a very SMALL favourite Vs his hand, if we push then we are gambling, if he has a crappy pair then he can fold, if he has a flush draw then he will call, and if he has a set then he will call. Thus, when he calls, we are screwed (vs his range of hands) and when he folds we make no more money off our best hand. Capice?
4. If you are prepared to go broke on this hand, then wait until the turn. If there is no spade then you can push. Now you are a big favourite Vs flush draw.
5. You want him to FOLD his draw. Not call. The best outcome for you is that villain has a flush draw, but FOLDS to your bet.
6. He is not drawing for free, he has charged himself a half pot bet to see a turn card. He has paid in advance.

fuzzbox

Waylander wrote:

Flat calling his bet is giving free a free card to hit whatever hand he is drawing to. I don't like that at all, I think the push here is definitely correct.

]

No it is not. He has paid 1000 for the privilege. How much would you bet if it was checked to you ? Somewhere between 1000 and 2000 perhaps?

Calling now, seeing a safe turn (non-spade) and pushing there gives you a better chance to get your money in ahead.

Waylander

fuzzbox wrote:

]

No it is not. He has paid 1000 for the privilege. How much would you bet if it was checked to you ? Somewhere between 1000 and 2000 perhaps?

Calling now, seeing a safe turn (non-spade) and pushing there gives you a better chance to get your money in ahead.

Your self and Amaru are correct, i did not state what I meant clearly enough. By flat calling you are giving the pot odds he wants to play here. I think you have to make him make a decision and the only way to do that is push back and give him some pot odds that he will not like. You are using the fact that we know what cards he has to work out your odds, I am talking as is I was playing the hand, and was trying to figure out what he had. The OP felt he had A 8 or something similar, a straight draw is a possibility and two overcards is a possibility. I do not see how you can put him on a hand that is 50:50 with such a week flop bet.

I think I would put him on the spot and force a decison out of him every time in this situation.

nikorami

Well Done Fuzz....You'll probably get many an arguement on that...but your thinking is in line with what I posted here early on and my thread about the variables. Becoming more successful at this game is realizing these things and avoiding these situations. The guy now bets allin when he hits the flush, the OP mucks 99, saved 3000+ and probably(don't know for sure) is not on tilt.

Doctor Fell

fuzzbox wrote:

]

No it is not. He has paid 1000 for the privilege. How much would you bet if it was checked to you ? Somewhere between 1000 and 2000 perhaps?

No, u are in effect giving him a free card if u just call the 1,000. U have to consider the hand from the point in time of it being up to u to act. Therefore, if u just call it is costing him nothing extra to see the turn, and possibly hit one of the outs he needs to beat u in what is already a big enough pot.

fuzzbox wrote:

]


Calling now, seeing a safe turn (non-spade) and pushing there gives you a better chance to get your money in ahead.

But the point is u don't know his hand exactly, and so any card is potentially a scare card - there are no "safe" cards on the turn. Fair enough put him on a flush draw, but u don't know what over cards to the flop he may have. Any 10->Ace could beat u, or even if he's betting a small pair a low card could do u. In other words u won't know where u stand on the turn, but if u figure he's got the flush draw on the flop u know ur ahead so why not raise it up and try to win the biggish pot right now? Instead of letting him see another card for nothing and possibly beat u?

Amaru

Doctor Fell wrote:

No, u are in effect giving him a free card if u just call the 1,000. U have to consider the hand from the point in time of it being up to u to act. Therefore, if u just call it is costing him nothing extra to see the turn, and possibly hit one of the outs he needs to beat u in what is already a big enough pot.

How has it cost him "nothing extra"? He has had to make a bet to see the turn. Whether he raised or called, a bet is still being made. As such, like i said, he has set his own odds on this hand, ie 1/3 if you call. Raising to get the correct odds on your draw is a very common principle in hold'em, especially limit. He is NOT getting a free card. Proper pot odds yes, but not a free card. He is still paying to draw to his hand.

Ste05

This bet is not his money anymore! ..... It is in the pot .... Therefore, calling IS giving him a free card!!!!

Doctor Fell

Amaru wrote:

How has it cost him "nothing extra"? He is NOT getting a free card.

I disagree. It is up to u to act, and by just calling u are deciding that he is going to pay nothing extra(!!) to see the turn. Forget about what's happened before, that money is already in the pot. It's a free card in my books anyways.
By the way, thanks but I'm aware of the principle of pot odds etc. in hold em.:D

fuzzbox

Doctor Fell wrote:

No, u are in effect giving him a free card if u just call the 1,000. U have to consider the hand from the point in time of it being up to u to act. Therefore, if u just call it is costing him nothing extra to see the turn, and possibly hit one of the outs he needs to beat u in what is already a big enough pot.

Its not free, he has already paid for it, really.
And if you are ready to get all in with 99 here, then you say to yourself "unless a spade hits I'm all in on the turn". Thus you do pay him off if he hits a K. Nothing is absolute, and these are the risks we take.

But the point is u don't know his hand exactly, and so any card is potentially a scare card - there are no "safe" cards on the turn. Fair enough put him on a flush draw, but u don't know what over cards to the flop he may have. Any 10->Ace could beat u, or even if he's betting a small pair a low card could do u. In other words u won't know where u stand on the turn, but if u figure he's got the flush draw on the flop u know ur ahead so why not raise it up and try to win the biggish pot right now? Instead of letting him see another card for nothing and possibly beat u?

If you raise and he folds a pair of 8s or 5s or 6s or whatever, then you have lost in the long run. If he has those hands, then he might go all-in himself on the turn thinking that *you* have a flush draw.
If he only calls you when he beats you or is 50/50 against you, then in the long run your push is not good.
If you decide that your hand is good, but that a flush draw makes up a good part of his range, then call the flop and push the turn.

Amaru

I wasn't trying to educate you in pot odds, i was illustrating the example.

With a free card, your opponent gets infinite odds to draw to his hand. In this case, is he getting infinite odds? How you think "free" and "costing no more additional money than that which you've already wagered" are the same thing is beyond me. Like i said, if you're familiar with limit, this is a common principle.

Ste05

If you flat call and any non flush card over a 9 falls, then he goes all in, do you call??

EDIT: How about any card that pairs the board?? Or any lower card if you think he might have had a smaller pocket pair??

By calling you are showing weakness and he'll pretty much go all-in on any card I'd say, he's short stacked and he can't really let this pot go....

Doctor Fell

Amaru wrote:

With a free card, your opponent gets infinite odds to draw to his hand. In this case, is he getting infinite odds? How you think "free" and "costing no more additional money than that which you've already wagered" are the same thing is beyond me. Like i said, if you're familiar with limit, this is a common principle.

Like I said, I'm familiar with the concept/principle so no need to worry on that account.

"Free" and "costing no more additional money than that which you've already wagered" are the same thing in this case. It's a new seperate bet, nothing to do with what's already in the pot.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

By calling you are showing weakness and he'll pretty much go all-in on any card I'd say, he's short stacked and he can't really let this pot go....

This is good for us if the turn does not put a spade on. Now his 4k goes in when we are a substantial favourite (most of the time, there are some times when a K hits and he goes all-in).

By calling, we create a situation where we can get his last 4k in as a big underdog (or save the 4k if a flush card hits).

Doctor Fell

fuzzbox wrote:

Thus you do pay him off if he hits a K. Nothing is absolute, and these are the risks we take.

these are the risks you might take, but I try not to. My point is that by raising allin on he flop against his flush draw I hope he folds. Then I win a big pot, so that's great. I've also eliminated the risk of him hitting a flush and although I won't call his bet then, I've just lost a sizeable pot.
Let me ask u - if no flush hits and u go allin on the turn then anyway, why didn't u just go allin on the flop??? Do u not see u have just given him a free chance to hit his flush?

fuzzbox wrote:

If you raise and he folds a pair of 8s or 5s or 6s or whatever, then you have lost in the long run.

U haven't lost in the long run coz the only way he is calling ur allin bet on the turn (if he has a small pair in the hole) is if he hits trips. Again, ur giving him a free card to hit his hand.

fuzzbox

Waylander wrote:

Your self and Amaru are correct, i did not state what I meant clearly enough. By flat calling you are giving the pot odds he wants to play here. I think you have to make him make a decision and the only way to do that is push back and give him some pot odds that he will not like. You are using the fact that we know what cards he has to work out your odds, I am talking as is I was playing the hand, and was trying to figure out what he had. The OP felt he had A 8 or something similar, a straight draw is a possibility and two overcards is a possibility. I do not see how you can put him on a hand that is 50:50 with such a week flop bet.

I think I would put him on the spot and force a decison out of him every time in this situation.

You cannot give him pot odds that he doesnt like. If he has a flush draw with two overcards (reasonably likely), then he is a favourite over our hand with 15 outs. If he has one overcard with a flush draw then he is a very small underdog. If he has a better hand then WE are an underdog, and if he has a pair, then his 1000 bet is already a mistake.

If we push for total of 5k into pot containing 3k. He has to call 4k to win 8k. Even with just a naked flush draw ... he should call. If he has one big card, he makes a lot in the long run by calling. If he has two big cards and a flush draw then he should beat you to the pot.

There is nothing you can do apart from to give worse odds to a worse made hand ... which he might fold ... which you dont want.

You gain nothing by pushing, and lose the power of your position, and lose the ability to hit him on the turn.

If you call, the pot contains 4k. Now if villain checks, you can push, and he has to call 4k to win 8k again, but now he has only 25% chance to win. He is getting insufficient odds. If he has a worse made hand then he probably pushes a blank, and you call as a big favourite (say he has A8 and the turn is a 7, then he has 5 outs from 44 remaining cards ... 39:5, or about 8:1. This is good. If you raised the flop and he folded such a hand then you dont get his 4k in this situation ... you have cost yourself money.
If he has a set or two-pair then you are doomed.

If a flush card comes then you can get away cheap, and instead of gambling all your stack on a 50/50 shot, you save 4k, and feel cheated that the flush card hit the turn, but happy that you didnt go all-in and lose.

Ste05

Good points there Doctor Fell, but also, Fuzzbox, you do realise we don't know he has K5 (or whatever it was)??

In this situation, (i.e. a scare card falls - pretty much the whole deck TBH) all we would know is he called from the BB, bet the flop, was called, then he went all-in on the turn!! terrible play IMHO

fuzzbox

Doctor Fell wrote:

these are the risks you might take, but I try not to. My point is that by raising allin on he flop against his flush draw I hope he folds. Then I win a big pot, so that's great. I've also eliminated the risk of him hitting a flush and although I won't call his bet then, I've just lost a sizeable pot.
Let me ask u - if no flush hits and u go allin on the turn then anyway, why didn't u just go allin on the flop??? Do u not see u have just given him a free chance to hit his flush?

He has to call with a flush draw. Even without an overcard he has to call. So all you are doing is waiting for the turn to see a card. If it comes with a flush, then you can fold. If not then you get all-in as a big favourite (instead of a small one).
And he might make a mistake with a hand like A8 ... and push a blank. Good things can happen from calling.
If you go all-in then you are are destroyed by the range of hands that he calls you with (flush draw + pair, flush draw + overcard, flush draw + two overcards, two-pair, set). You are either a small favourite or a big dog.

U haven't lost in the long run coz the only way he is calling ur allin bet on the turn (if he has a small pair in the hole) is if he hits trips. Again, ur giving him a free card to hit his hand.

But he might GO all-in with 77 for example ... mistakenly believing that YOU have a flush draw.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

Good points there Doctor Fell, but also, Fuzzbox, you do realise we don't know he has K5 (or whatever it was)??

In this situation, (i.e. a scare card falls - pretty much the whole deck TBH) all we would know is he called from the BB, bet the flop, was called, then he went all-in on the turn!! terrible play IMHO

Our hand is very likely best, given this flop. A lot of his range is a lot of flush cards. Some of it is a set and its really unlikely to see twopair on an 842 board (but possible). Some of it is 77/66/55 and 8x. But most likely its kinda KJs or QJs or that kind of stuff.

Against this range of hands, calling the flop is superior to pushing. Pushing makes him fold 77- and 8x, but call with his big draws and his sets.

If he has 8x, then call the flop and sure 1 time in 9 he outdraws us and we pay him off on the turn, but far more often he pushes the turn unimproved and we are a massive favourite.

Norwich Fan Rob

u keep making the mistake of "knowing" he has a flush draw.
this is NOT imo a major part of his possible range with the action thats taken place up to this point. (yes we know in hindsight he had this, but this is not the point).
By just calling the 1k, u are losing folding equity, and u are letting him see the turn without making any awkward decisions, and greatly increasing being outdrawn in a pot, that is already big enough to take down now with the holding u have, which is clearly ahead at this point.

Doctor Fell

fuzzbox wrote:

He has to call with a flush draw.

what???
why does he have to?

He's behind, and not even drawing to the nuts (as far as he knows!)

fuzzbox wrote:

If you go all-in then you are are destroyed by the range of hands that he calls you with (flush draw + pair, flush draw + overcard, flush draw + two overcards, two-pair, set). You are either a small favourite or a big dog.

How am I destroyed if he has 2 overcards and flush draw? I'm still the favourite to win the hand. The only way he is ahead is if he has an overpair or trips. No way am I a big dog!!:D

Waylander

Firstly there is no point arguing about the terminology of the "free card", I would have thought what I meant was fairly apparent.

Secondly Fuzzbox, alot of what you say is correct but as I have already said, and Ste has said we do not know that he has 2 spades in the hole, and you are disregarding allot of other possible holding here. You push hard here and he is not correct to call on a flush draw, any 5,6,7,T,J,Q,K,A or spade will concern you, less so with the 5,6 or seven, also if the board pairs you are concerned. You put your money in now when you are fairly certain you are ahead, by giving him another card "free", virtually any card that comes out will give you cause for concern and there is a strong chance you will have to fold on the turn. Why give yourself a very difficult decision next card when you can give him a tough decision now.

Ste05

I think this thread is about ready to die, but basically Fuzzbox, I disagree completely with your ideas, calling here is just terrible TBH, you've done a great job outlining the worst case scenario in post 42 above, but all this is the worst case scenario, we know nothing about this guys hand range other than he called from the BB then bet the flop, that unfortunately is not nearly enough information to know he has a flush draw. The best probability you can put on all that is 20 - 30%, (and at that I'm being generous). But I'll leave it at that,

Ste05 out....

EDIT: just saw Waylander's post, I'll let you pick up the baton here Waylander...

fuzzbox

Doctor Fell wrote:

what???
why does he have to?

Because you are offering him 2:1 odds, and he is 1.84:1 to make his hand. Thus he would be making a mistake by folding.

He's behind, and not even drawing to the nuts (as far as he knows!)

He may have the favoured hand, and he wont care if he is not drawing to the nuts.

How am I destroyed if he has 2 overcards and flush draw? I'm still the favourite to win the hand. The only way he is ahead is if he has an overpair or trips. No way am I a big dog!!:D

1. You are a small underdog against two overcards and a flush draw.
Board: 8s 4s 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.7677 % 46.77% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 53.2323 % 53.23% 00.00% { QsJs }

2. You are destroyed by his RANGE of calling hands.


Board: 8s 4s 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.0213 % 20.02% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 79.9787 % 79.98% 00.00% { JJ-TT, 88, 44, 22, AsTs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s }


Even when I take out JJ and TT

Board: 8s 4s 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.8237 % 27.82% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 72.1763 % 72.18% 00.00% { 88, 44, 22, AsTs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s }


If I add in some more suited Ks and As

Board: 8s 4s 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.3390 % 34.34% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 65.6610 % 65.66% 00.00% { 88, 44, 22, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s }

Doctor Fell

Waylander wrote:

Firstly there is no point arguing about the terminology of the "free card", I would have thought what I meant was fairly apparent.

Ye, but people didn't agree with the definition of free card, so the argument was worth it.....and very enjoyable