Snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 6)

darkman2

I take it youve all seen the 12z FI and its 850 temp range in the ensembles. Ignore it, its total bs.:)

Danno

Nope, what are the models churning out for later this week and into next week?

Gonzo

metcheck is showing some very mild wet weather till the 25th January with the exception of the 17th where there mite be some sleetyness

Met check use gfs dont they to go weeks ahead with the weather.

0 reliability tbh... as its FI that they are basing things on.

Closer timeframes are reliable-lets say 4 days MAX at the moment given the flux the computers are having with the various possibilities.

Danno

Looks like a cold NW is setting in over the weekend into next Monday. Probably the best chance for snow in the foreseeable future.

Temps from 1 to 4c and a lot of precip around, very windy too, so those in Tramore and Arklow should get something!

I'd like to remind the above poster that the couple of feet of snow he got in january 87 came from an Easterly and not a northwesterly

ninebeanrows

Hah the outlook is nothing less than appalling

Zonality to rage for the next 2 weeks

Winter slowly slip slip slipping away im afraid:(

Duiske

Why, 9 days into January, are people writing off the winter already ?. As Earthman said earlier, Gfs reliabiliy at the moment is running to about 4/5 days max. Sure, a few days of atlantic muck is about to be thrown at us, but beyond that ? Who knows.

Danno

Agreed Duiske Lad.

But when zonality kicks in, it is really hard to see anything stopping the constant barrage of Low pressure systems.

What I would like to see happening here is these low pressures diving SE wards from Iceland to Spain if they insist on queing up on us, this would bring a more 1993 style winter.

Gonzo

Duiske_Lad wrote:

Sure, a few days of atlantic muck is about to be thrown at us, but beyond that ? Who knows.

bar a few frosty days all we've had is mild atlantic muck all winter so far and we only got about 4 or 5 so called proper winter weeks left this season before the spring starts to kicks in. just saw on the rte news there Japan got 15 feet of snow and most of India is frozen and New Delhi down to 0c.. yet we cant even get a flake of snow here, we're getting 12c tomorrow I mean its not exactly looking optimistic for the snowlovers here to see some REAL snow unless we get really lucky and somehow a week long easterly blast occurs.

ninebeanrows

Duiske_Lad wrote:

Why, 9 days into January, are people writing off the winter already ?. As Earthman said earlier, Gfs reliabiliy at the moment is running to about 4/5 days max. Sure, a few days of atlantic muck is about to be thrown at us, but beyond that ? Who knows.

Im afraid the GFS model has been VERY consistent at bringing in Zonality
for the next 14 days and has stuck to its guns very well. The model
had a bad spell during the blocking scenario and since then has
done very well.

Im afraid were gonna be stuck in a rut for at least 10-12 days

Duiske

Weathercheck wrote:

Im afraid were gonna be stuck in a rut for at least 10-12 days

WC, I have been chart watching for about 8 months, and have a bit of a clue about what they mean, but have to say, this past few days have me stumped. Hope you don't mind a couple of questions.

1. How far ahead would you consider a run to be reliable ?
2. For your own forecasting, do you follow each run, or use one particular run each day ?
I noted on your website that you called the late Dec easterly about 10/14(?) days before the event. Do you see anything apart from atlantic/zonal influence for the rest of January ? Something from N/NW maybe ?

Cheers

ninebeanrows

Duiske_Lad wrote:

WC, I have been chart watching for about 8 months, and have a bit of a clue about what they mean, but have to say, this past few days have me stumped. Hope you don't mind a couple of questions.

1. How far ahead would you consider a run to be reliable ?
2. For your own forecasting, do you follow each run, or use one particular run each day ?
I noted on your website that you called the late Dec easterly about 10/14(?) days before the event. Do you see anything apart from atlantic/zonal influence for the rest of January ? Something from N/NW maybe ?

Cheers

I anticipate from my view of the model of milder than average conditions for
at least the next 10 days:)

Gonzo

temperature clocks in town reporting 14C, were currently same temperature as Malaga in the Costa Del Sol which is 13C

ninebeanrows

worth mentioning the intesne cyclone a few hundred miles to our Northwest
bombed 52mb in 24 hours. Now a 950mb Atlantic storm:)

Supercell

Two scandy highs (no snow here) this winter already..and now zonal..
Well, you all already know what I think about that!, uncharacteristically pessimistic there WC ?

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

worth mentioning the intesne cyclone a few hundred miles to our Northwest
bombed 52mb in 24 hours. Now a 950mb Atlantic storm

Now that's explosive cyclogenisis! Is that the same LP that's giving the country a windy evening?

There has been little optimism in this thread for any freezing weather. Cheer up people! I've no real empirical evidence to say this but I think we will get our fair share of the white stuff by the time winter's over. Longfield is right to point out that there have been 2 easterlies over the last 3 weeks. If there is a damp squib (namely zonality) for a week or 2 before severe cold I won't complain.

A decent easterly this season is 50/50 I'd say:)

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Now that's explosive cyclogenisis! Is that the same LP that's giving the country a windy evening?

There has been little optimism in this thread for any freezing weather. Cheer up people! I've no real empirical evidence to say this but I think we will get our fair share of the white stuff by the time winter's over. Longfield is right to point out that there have been 2 easterlies over the last 3 weeks. If there is a damp squib (namely zonality) for a week or 2 before severe cold I won't complain.

A decent easterly this season is 50/50 I'd say:)

Yupp same storm system although the cold front which is approaching
is what is giving the recent increase in winds:)

ninebeanrows

An appalling outlook

All the promise from the east looks likely to be swept away:(

Roll on Spring after this non-existent winter

12 days of muck to come:rolleyes:

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

An appalling outlook

All the promise from the east looks likely to be swept away:(

Roll on Spring after this non-existent winter

12 days of muck to come:rolleyes:

Today was a pretty nice day have to say, if this is zonal , bring it on !!
One of my workmates who is portuguese was even cracking jokes about actually seeing blue skys and sun in Ireland!!

Danno

Nice day today it was. Have to say that this winter still holds alot of promise, or should that be potential?

I'd like to see a N blast soon though...

CerebralCortex

Correct me if I am wrong but are we not more interested in the easterlies. I remenber WC flagging you before on it.

Danno

Depends on where you live I guess!

Dublin and the East coast up to 50-60 miles inland do fairly well outta easterlies (when they do come off!) - myself included...

But, basically I enjoy NWerlies more as they are more unstable, giving more precip, but the downside is that they last maximum 72 hours...

Gonzo

thing is tho when we had real winters back in the 80s with easterlys almost every winter sometimes twice in the one winter, the snowfall was relentless.. it just kept snowing from constantly prolonged snow showers often merging into 5 to 6 hours of continyous snow then a break for about half an hour fallowed by a few more hours of snow and so on and so on. Sometimes this would go on for a whole week and more.

North Westerlys are usually very poor here in the east with often no snow and mostly sunshine and clear, frostly nights.

ninebeanrows

Cometh the end of Jan we will have an easterly from the depths of Siberia..

My heart keeps saying it.... but my head anint listening...

O it is..

Anyway gotta emmmmm go now

BYE BYE

Gonzo

metcheck have the mild wet muck lasting into the start of February which is nearing Winter's final run, if this pattern continues into March and knowing this country it prolly will this will be the most dissapointing winter of all time in my lifetime, so far only a few select area's have seen a pethetic light covering of snow that lasted a few hours and taht was back in November! Not only has there been no cold snaps, no snow but there hasnt been any exciting weather of any kind at all.. no storms, no thunder, no really bad winds, nothing exciting whatsoever. As bad as it sounds I think Winter 2006/2007 can only be better unless something exciting comes out of the blue over the next 4 weeks and surprises us all. Im already turning my attention to Summer 2006 and hoping for a few really nice heatwaves... we stand a better chance of getting those lately than cold winters.

ninebeanrows

ah come off it Gonzo

The weather pattern has changed this year and even you cannot deny it

Russia set to freeze this week Moscow might even break its all time
cold record as temperature plummet to -30c.

Again i must say that i grow with believe that we will see the infamous
true Easterly Blast at the end of this month circa Jan 28th:D

Danno

Is there a something showing up in FI then WC? Come on... show us the linky! (permission to increase ramp level to 20% granted! )

Gonzo

hey i want a country closing snow infested cold easterly blast as much as everyone else here, i was just saying that if the rest of this winter contineues like it is now till march then it will be so dissapointing and up to this point so far this winter has been rubbish but i didnt say that it is going to continue all the way. I still live in hope that something might happen and if you have anything good to show us for the end of January then please do:)

Supercell

Big stagnent euro high that gives Moscow cold..forgive me for not entering ramp mode....

This winter's patterns have been different to recent years..thats the straw i'm clutching at..Feb still to come, Jan looking like a snow lovers write off though.

Danno

Put it this way then, if on November 1st, you were told that:

"You''ll have snowfall on November 25th, followed by six weeks of cold weather with potential for snow, then about two weeks of wind/rain after which a return to cold weather with snowfalls at times..."

Would you have taken it...


[...can I have my hand back please !!!]