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snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

  • 29-12-2005 6:23pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,536 ✭✭✭


    After coming down off a high after that whole snow situation and seeing it crash to the ground in the form of rain :( , I want something else to look forward to, so, as the title line says 'What's next'?? Anything in line for the coming weeks as regards cold snaps or interesting observations that may affect us?

    Cheers,

    CroppyBoy1798


«1345

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,338 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    well I just checked metcheck and their 2 week forcast and theres nothing on the horizon at all if there site is anything to go by, temperatures of 7-12C from now till January 12th. I hope to god something changes soon, altho we've had more colder days so far this winter we've had even less snow than this time last year and that wasnt up to much.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm going to make this the new model thread and sticky it and close the other one but I'll leave it open just for tonight if anyone wants to make some closing comments in it

    I'll change the title of this one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Bah, another typical "modern" cold spell, the ostrages in the uk that were not borderline will say ..horray global warming isn't happening..in Ireland where we are borderline and there isn't any snow bar the barely unborderline (Knock airport) ..its yet another let down.

    Bah!! is all i can say, everywhere where snow is borderline its either bounty year or no year...soon its going to be no year for most.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    This chart looks very very familiar:rolleyes: :http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1441.gif

    Last thing we would want is some sort of repeat of what we just had;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I'd take that , cloudy and hopefully mild, yep nice, no slippery roads and no windscreen scraping!!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    huh?!? That chart is a precursor to an Easterly, allbeit probrably not a harsh one and its NOGAPS so it wont happen;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    darkman2 wrote:
    huh?!? That chart is a precursor to an Easterly, allbeit probrably not a harsh one and its NOGAPS so it wont happen;)

    And how does this differ from my prognosis ?(apart from the fact that it might be the precurser to another mild easterly? )

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    In fairness Longfield what was wrong with this Easterly was it lasted only a day in truth.
    The scandi high didnt go far enough north so pressure was too high to encourage shower growth in the Irish sea.
    If pressure was a bit lower and the flow had reached us for more than 2 days you would have been plastered with snow from the Irish sea alone and the breakdown would have been more interesting as you would have had much lower temps.

    I saw NRA temps last night down to -5 and -6c on the N2 and in the Very north midlands and Ulster/Connaught.

    Guess what-they got some snow from the break down.
    A longer easterly from the origin of this one would have delivered the goods big time.
    It's only early it can happen again

    Remember we can rebuild it
    We have the technology :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Earthman wrote:
    In fairness Longfield what was wrong with this Easterly was it lasted only a day in truth.
    The scandi high didnt go far enough north so pressure was too high to encourage shower growth in the Irish sea.
    If pressure was a bit lower and the flow had reached us for more than 2 days you would have been plastered with snow from the Irish sea alone and the breakdown would have been more interesting as you would have had much lower temps.

    I saw NRA temps last night down to -5 and -6c on the N2 and in the Very north midlands and Ulster/Connaught.

    Guess what-they got some snow from the break down.
    A longer easterly from the origin of this one would have delivered the goods big time.
    It's only early it can happen again

    Remember we can rebuild it
    We have the technology :D


    All very true Earthman but as the saying goes ..if "ifs and ands were pots and pans then"...etc..

    Fact is the last time one of these reached us was about 5 years ago, the brits get this every year, its only recently that some of them havent(ie its less widespread), but as warming increases ..they will become marginal like we always have been and maybe then the "don't be daft its all normal variation" brigade will realise its anything but.

    Fact is SE uk is still in a drought, whilst Scotland is in exactly the opposite..what worries me is that we are getting easterlies and yes if the same synoptics happened in the 80's, the same temps would result ..however..in the 80's the same synoptics just wouldn't happen, the azores high would be much further south and we would right now be in a full blown proper easterly imho.

    Bah, just bitterly dissappointed yet again by it all, a scandi high that brings rain in winter..hmmmmmmm

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Just for a bit of a tease, look at the dream easterly at the end of the 6z run, wont happen, but sure looks nice:mad:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Longfield wrote:
    All very true Earthman but as the saying goes ..if "ifs and ands were pots and pans then"...etc..

    Fact is the last time one of these reached us was about 5 years ago, the brits get this every year, its only recently that some of them havent(ie its less widespread), but as warming increases ..they will become marginal like we always have been and maybe then the "don't be daft its all normal variation" brigade will realise its anything but.

    Fact is SE uk is still in a drought, whilst Scotland is in exactly the opposite..what worries me is that we are getting easterlies and yes if the same synoptics happened in the 80's, the same temps would result ..however..in the 80's the same synoptics just wouldn't happen, the azores high would be much further south and we would right now be in a full blown proper easterly imho.

    Bah, just bitterly dissappointed yet again by it all, a scandi high that brings rain in winter..hmmmmmmm

    Emm the easterly hardly reached our shores and lasted for like a day. It wasnt an easterly really and the rain that we had yesterday came from a atlantic front that met a not very cold atmosphere over Ireland:)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Be interesting to see if an Easterly appears on the 12z as the Siberian/Scandi high may link up with an Artic high. ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on and besides if this big freeze bull**** we have been fed by the media happens chances are it will only last about 2 days and mainly in dublin. The NAD rules these here parts. Unless you want to nuke either the arctic or the gulf of mexico we aren't going to see much snow especially in Galway. Remebering that the NAD provides a million Billion watts of energy for the love of god let it go or just move to Austria.

    Although would be nice to have a snow season don't get me wrong I'd love it as much as the next guy.

    Rant over thank you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,536 ✭✭✭SpitfireIV


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on.

    CerebralCortex,

    From my understanding, and I am by no means a weather man, but isnt January and February the time that we usually get snow? The only time I ever seen snow in December was Christmas day of 2004.

    I'm still remaining optomistic :D

    CroppyBoy1798


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    Usually!! What is this usually you speak of?:D I am not from a weather background either but I do live in this country and without much difficulty pay close attention to the weather day to day, the dominant weather system is from North Atlantic. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is the majority of the time unfortunately a south west wind that blows meaning no snow possibilties or warm clear weather in the summer when the sun is highest in the Irish skies.

    No we get rain stinking rain and most noticeably around all of the year.

    I love snow more than the next man but we have to be realistic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    What we need is the NW flow to re-assert herself.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    NW/NE airflow would be nice but one can only dream.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Usually!! What is this usually you speak of?:D I am not from a weather background either but I do live in this country and without much difficulty pay close attention to the weather day to day, the dominant weather system is from North Atlantic. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is the majority of the time unfortunately a south west wind that blows meaning no snow possibilties or warm clear weather in the summer when the sun is highest in the Irish skies.

    No we get rain stinking rain and most noticeably around all of the year.

    I love snow more than the next man but we have to be realistic.
    Actually the UKMO severe winter warning applied to the last 2 weeks of january and february...
    They were expecting average winter weather up to that time.

    As regards Fantasy island, theres nothing outstanding that I can see out to jan6th but that High is on its way back west slightly which is a good thing.
    It needs to anchor over northern Scandi and stay there for a week and then we will shiver.

    WC is right it didnt do that so all we got was the draft down the hall before the draft excluder[Atlantic weather front] was installed whereas Britain was actually outside the door exposed fully to the full cold of the wind.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,338 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    have to say ive lost faith in the winter too I cant see it being much different than any other over the last 10 years, we'll more than likely just have week after week of mild wet muck and maybe a northerly plunge for a day or so with some sleety/snow showers. I really hope im wrong tho but this being the Atlantic influenced Ireland I just dont see much else happening but the usuall boring Irish Winter crap.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Never fear, a true Easterly is certainly on the cards soon with the Siberian high remaining strong and an Artic high developing. Mid January will be interesting. Oh and did I mention a good Easterly is possible from next Friday, nudge nudge;)


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    LoL

    For the first time ever I saw a weather forecast on RTÉ tonight at 620 or so to give the weather for the whole of next week all the way up to friday

    Eveyln Cusack
    Theres confidence for ya
    she said it would be mild all week which it probably will.

    Yeah what people dont realise is we havent had an easterly yet
    They are obviously as rare as properly placed january scandi highs
    I hope theres no snow the week after next though as I'm heading to Boston and I dont want to have flights delayed.

    I'm fully expecting to see snow and feet of it in Boston if I'm lucky


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Incidently and this is good news
    Since the last week, the sea temp in much of the Irish sea has dropped by 2 degree's.
    It's now more or less similar to the north sea temp
    That should help if we have a proper Easterly in a couple of weeks.In fact it could make all the difference in the slight tempering of the air that does happen near the East coast in a cold snap.
    Very interesting

    brack5.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    HMMM(a very big hmmm)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Earthman wrote:
    Incidently and this is good news
    Since the last week, the sea temp in much of the Irish sea has dropped by 2 degree's.
    It's now more or less similar to the north sea temp

    Clutching at straws are we ;)

    Last week the sea temp at M2 bouy was a little over 11C, now it's 10.7C, so a drop of about 0.5C. North Sea is 7-9C, this I would call a big difference, and I would have thought the gap would have widened during the past week.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Mothman wrote:
    Clutching at straws are we ;)

    Last week the sea temp at M2 bouy was a little over 11C, now it's 10.7C, so a drop of about 0.5C. North Sea is 7-9C, this I would call a big difference, and I would have thought the gap would have widened during the past week.
    Damn Mothman don't you be Raining on this parade.
    You're supposed to be snowing on it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on and besides if this big freeze bull**** we have been fed by the media happens chances are it will only last about 2 days and mainly in dublin. The NAD rules these here parts. Unless you want to nuke either the arctic or the gulf of mexico we aren't going to see much snow especially in Galway. Remebering that the NAD provides a million Billion watts of energy for the love of god let it go or just move to Austria.

    We've always had the NAD, (well for the purposes of this discussion), we've had snows, cold/freezing weather in the past, inc the very recent past, and I believe that global warming is not enough to prevent us having them in the future.

    Fact is, that sea temps continue to fall, through Jan, through Feb, and normally reach the lowest levels in early March!! The higher sun doesn't really make much difference until into March.
    The coldest month of year is Jan, with Feb about the same. Early Mar is usually colder than early Dec, so I think it is wrong to write the winter off. I'm not saying it will be cold and there will cold/snow etc, just saying there is plenty of time.

    The media jumped on the UKMO forecast, so I don't think they should cop all the blame (just 95% :) )
    Gonzo wrote:
    have to say ive lost faith in the winter too I cant see it being much different than any other over the last 10 years,

    If this is the case, you've set yourself too high standards. A few words about the Winter of 00-01. Sure the final temp stats will say it was about average, if you take the first week of Dec out and put in first week of March, well it would have been well below average.

    Dec 00 "A spell of exceptionally cold weather during the final week brought freezing temps and heavy snow in places."

    Jan 01 "Coldest Jan since Mid-1980s

    Feb 01 "Very cold northerly winds over the country during the final week brought heavy snowfall in places, leading to disruption of both power supplies and transport.

    Mar 01 "Very cold weather at the beginning and again around mid-month...many stations recorded their lowest grass min temps on record for March


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Earthman wrote:
    Damn Mothman don't you be Raining on this parade.
    You're supposed to be snowing on it

    Hopefully my last post has helped, and perhaps it's now at least sleet on this parade :p;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1682.png
    This is a very interesting chart as the breakdown is quite weak and the northeast of Ireland could do quite well if that chart proves true.:)

    Precipitation would be less than this week's breakdown but it is more likely to bring snow. Unfortunately that ensemble paints the coldest picture out of the 11 ensembles in the model run.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    No the outlook at the moment is not very good but im pretty sure by mid January we will see some cold weather but im not optimistic about the first 15 days:)


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hi all, be interesting to see what sort of an Easterly we get from Thursday. Alreeady looking fairly cold, max next Friday of 2C. Certainly some potential here but we need alot more runs:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    No the outlook at the moment is not very good but im pretty sure by mid January we will see some cold weather but im not optimistic about the first 15 days
    That's very pessimistic of you WC, as you say yourself. We are less than a week away from a cool snap that might be interesting in terms of snowfall (for where I live anyway). This looks more promising for me tan last week's non-event. Of course, it's early days but I'm hopeful:)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1682.png
    This is a very interesting chart as the breakdown is quite weak and the northeast of Ireland could do quite well if that chart proves true.:)

    Precipitation would be less than this week's breakdown but it is more likely to bring snow.
    Doubt it.
    Thats -5 850 air as opposed to the -5 to -7 that we had in the East on Thursday morning and you know what happened then.
    You need to be looking at -10 on those for certainty.
    Besides a week is too far out to guess properly


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    Mothman wrote:
    We've always had the NAD, (well for the purposes of this discussion), we've had snows, cold/freezing weather in the past, inc the very recent past, and I believe that global warming is not enough to prevent us having them in the future.........

    The fact that we have the NAD is the core of my opinion we simply do not get cold weather by cold standards anyway. This is not a cold country it is an extremely mild one (imo). The global warming issue one would hope it might stiffle the NAD so I am kinda for global warming. My final word on the matter is that you live in Wicklow I think and I live in Galway city so if we get this supposed "cold weather" you will see and feel a lot more of it than I would.
    Thanx for your time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Earthman wrote:
    Doubt it.
    Thats -5 850 air as opposed to the -5 to -7 that we had in the East on Thursday morning and you know what happened then.
    You need to be looking at -10 on those for certainty.
    Besides a week is too far out to guess properly
    I disagree there. The charts had the -5 line over the north-east of Ireland at quite a late stage, with the LP about to cross Ireland and the -5 line stayed over northeast Ireland pretty stubbornly. I notice though that the original chart has completely changed now, with -5 850 hPa air over the western half of the country.:rolleyes: That shows the reliability of looking at charts for a week away.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Lets see what the winter brings..its only the real beginning of winter proper.

    If we get another year of mild muck (five years and counting so far..) than I'm just gonna consign proper cold spells to the historical record like the Frost Fairs on the Thames in London..something that could happen in the "Little Ice Age" (and before the barriers) but not something that's likely to happen now.

    Long range cycle charts like the NOAA forceast for an especially active hurricane season this year which of course was very true, would indicate that next winter is going to be the BIG ONE (allegedly..I do believe it's our last best hope personally before warming cancels out even the 63 or 47 type scenario ..)

    That said this one should be pretty reasonable also, and the synoptic charts are indeed diffferent to the zonal stuff we have had recently...(has it delivered to you yet??..it did to the brits..barely...)

    But ..I don't see an 80's style cold snap happening here ...People say ..if the same chart happened in year blah the result would be the same..well of course it would!!..thats like saying if there's a low pressure over us than it's more likely to rain than in high pressure!!

    Fact is certain weather patterns are becoming the norm..and the new extremes are the previous slight deviations,

    Sure we could have a really cold winter..but instead of being a maybe 10% chance like in the 80's a '82 or '87 might have been historically..i'd put an '82 or '87 in the hundred year timeframe and a '47 or '63 in a 500 year frame.

    So yes in summary, if this and that happened we would get a proper cold snap..but if comparitively this and that happened we would would have month after month of above average temps too....

    I know which version makes more sense to me.

    Lads I'd really like another decent cold spell with proper snow before I die on a vineyard in Monahan, hope its not to much to ask!!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I don't see why there's so much fuss over global warming or whatever affecting our chances of snow. I can imagine that there have been periods in the past when there were several winters in a row without serious snowfall or cold. I don't believe that GW can be responsible for dreary, damp winters and I think that the phases of the atlantic/NAD have a much bigger influence. It's only a matter of time before zonality gives in to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The million dollar question is of course when this will happen? I fully expect to see a return of more frequent severe winters once the right conditions are back in place again, probably early in the next decade if not at the end of this one or even sooner:)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I disagree there. The charts had the -5 line over the north-east of Ireland at quite a late stage, with the LP about to cross Ireland and the -5 line stayed over northeast Ireland pretty stubbornly. I notice though that the original chart has completely changed now, with -5 850 hPa air over the western half of the country.:rolleyes: That shows the reliability of looking at charts for a week away.

    -5 850 air is not enough for snow


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    darkman2 wrote:
    Never fear, a true Easterly is certainly on the cards soon with the Siberian high remaining strong and an Artic high developing. Mid January will be interesting. Oh and did I mention a good Easterly is possible from next Friday, nudge nudge;)

    Ok I know its FI territory.

    But only just...

    Clutches more straws...

    That Scandi high that was over the urals...
    Welll GFS is trying to move it westward.
    If it maintains that course and position , the feed of Blue to the north East of it would be coming at you
    GFS wants to move this high west but much further north than the last time which would open the flood gates.
    A week is needed though.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    I don't see why there's so much fuss over global warming or whatever affecting our chances of snow. I can imagine that there have been periods in the past when there were several winters in a row without serious snowfall or cold. I don't believe that GW can be responsible for dreary, damp winters and I think that the phases of the atlantic/NAD have a much bigger influence. It's only a matter of time before zonality gives in to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The million dollar question is of course when this will happen? I fully expect to see a return of more frequent severe winters once the right conditions are back in place again, probably early in the next decade if not at the end of this one or even sooner:)

    The raising of temps in the Atlantic means more wet weather systems up north


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Earthman wrote:
    -5 850 air is not enough for snow
    On its own it's not but it's a good rule of thumb. And I thought that the <-5 850 hPa air was pushed away before the bulk of the precipitation arrived in the non-event this week.
    The raising of temps in the Atlantic means more wet weather systems up north
    Naturally this is true but the issue here is if they will continue rising for the forseeable future. I don't think that the Atlantic will continue warming endlessly and I think that we can have cold weather even though Atlantic SSTs are warmer (by how much?) than they were in the '80s and before.

    It just means that it is more difficult for the right synoptics to occur. It also means that the synoptics which do occur have to be that bit more potent at the source to deliver snow than they did in times past.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    What is behind my argument is that I think this thread is a tad fanboyish in its hopes for snow when we are cleary not a cold country. For example it is colder inside than it is outside currently. We are a mild country snow is not for us neither are hats and scarfs. Ppl in this country are just ligthweight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Ppl in this country are just ligthweight.
    Lol, I don't really know where you got that from.

    [sarcasm]Clearly we are not a cold country. I mean, look at all those people who booked holidays in Spain and the Med this winter. They must have been looking for snow[/sarcasm]
    Really though, do you think that Ireland cannot experience snow? My parents talk of the winter of 78/79 where they were able to walk from field to field without noticing the fence or hedge. It happened before, so we can't rule it out again. I'm merely saying that I expect the Atlantic to cool down again.

    This thread is the "snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread". I do hope for snow but I won't kill myself by locking myself in a butcher's freezer if there's none:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I'm merely saying that I expect the Atlantic to cool down again.

    Good luck with that, and may you live to be 2002 ;)

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    On its own it's not but it's a good rule of thumb. And I thought that the <-5 850 hPa air was pushed away before the bulk of the precipitation arrived in the non-event this week.
    No it was still in the East.
    It was also over the whole country when we had rain showers at the begining of the spell.
    Tip: look for 516 dam air too but certainly less than 528.
    Reading TWO probably has you confused with whats needed for Snow in England particularally Eastern England which is closer to the continent or Scotland which is first in the line of fire for an artic northerly.

    You probably missed this thread though while you were over there written by a meterologist I understand.
    It's an excelent summary of whats needed except drop the temp a few degree's and lower the dam a bit for over here :)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Equally well there was a post on usw a few years back mentioning rain falling in Northern Ireland with thicknesses around 510dam - purely due to the warming effect on the lower layers of air travelling over relatively mild seas.

    Thats a pertinent point from the thread too.
    It's not only Ireland that can happen in too though and it certainly happened I think last thursday when the strong southerly wind that was with the weather front brought with it mild atlantic air rising surface temps in the East or near the coast right from the start to +4c
    I know that didnt happen in west wicklow initially who for whatever topographical reason were initially shielded from that heating effect.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,616 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    OMG !!, did anyone watch Steve Murrs new year model tracker video..one word sums it up ..RAMP!!!!, ohh dear I'm getting excited again!!.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    heh
    The only thing
    (raining on parade again)

    ECM is showing a one day easterly followed by a southerly...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Earthman wrote:
    No it was still in the East.
    It was also over the whole country when we had rain showers at the begining of the spell.
    Tip: look for 516 dam air too but certainly less than 528.
    Reading TWO probably has you confused with whats needed for Snow in England particularally Eastern England which is closer to the continent or Scotland which is first in the line of fire for an artic northerly.

    You probably missed this thread though while you were over there written by a meterologist I understand.
    It's an excelent summary of whats needed except drop the temp a few degree's and lower the dam a bit for over here
    Yeah, I have picked up bits and pieces over on TWO during the last 2 years. Although I have to say that I usually am not far off the mark when snow is expected. I was excited to see relatively cold air staying with me so late during the crossing of a LP over Ireland, with wind speeds lighter than what happened this week.

    I guessed that 528 dam air is a little optimistic for snow but why the large difference? I would've expected <520 dam air to suffice.

    http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png
    Interesting chart there. If the Icelandic LP and especially the cyclone due west of us positioned itself differently then we would have an easterly on the cards. I like the trend of the Scandanavian HP dragging very cold air due westwards from the Urals which has been shown in many of the model runs recently.

    P.S. Happy new year to everyone on the forum and thanks for all the informative posts. Kudos, Earthman:p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,959 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Longfield wrote:
    OMG !!, did anyone watch Steve Murrs new year model tracker video..one word sums it up ..RAMP!!!!, ohh dear I'm getting excited again!!.

    IMO even if we did get what Steve predicts I think we'd have a simalar situation to last weeks, i.e. England get snow and we get rain. :(


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, I have picked up bits and pieces over on TWO during the last 2 years. Although I have to say that I usually am not far off the mark when snow is expected. I was excited to see relatively cold air staying with me so late during the crossing of a LP over Ireland, with wind speeds lighter than what happened this week.

    I guessed that 528 dam air is a little optimistic for snow but why the large difference? I would've expected <520 dam air to suffice.

    http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png
    Interesting chart there. If the Icelandic LP and especially the cyclone due west of us positioned itself differently then we would have an easterly on the cards. I like the trend of the Scandanavian HP dragging very cold air due westwards from the Urals which has been shown in many of the model runs recently.

    P.S. Happy new year to everyone on the forum and thanks for all the informative posts. Kudos, Earthman:p

    The problem with us is, we are an island sitting in the warm atlantic.
    You need a prolonged surface air feed as well as the upper air feed for to be sure.
    By prolonged, in my opinion and based on what I saw in that snowy decade-the 80's at least 4 days starting from when the coldest air arrives and preferably a week.
    Other wise you will get a sleety mess or showers delivering a couple of inches maybe with the whole thing in slush.

    I have yet to watch steves Vid,I'll have a look now but I suspect its full of Eastern promise which depends on one or two things coming right.
    It's not particularally aimed at Ireland (or at least the last few werent) so mightnt take into account the under cutting of the cold air by Mild atlantic surface air that we saw last thursday.


    One other thing to note at the risk of repeating myself.
    On last wenesday night I posted that temps on the N2 and some of the Ulster and Connaught NRA road weather stations were down to between -4c and -6c
    Those guys actually did get a period of snow because the "mild" under cut had more work to do.
    Here in the East, the temp barely got to -2c at best and started to rapidly rise when the southerly Atlantic surface air undercut the cold Easterly.

    In january 1982 when a low pressure system travelled to the south of Ireland stalling its fronts in the Irish Sea in a true cold easterly it snowed here in the East for 72 hours nonstop 30 ft drifts on the hills 4 miles from me and drifts here 2 miles from the coast(though with a bit of height) went over the ditches and half way up the telephone poles.

    I wouldnt mind a bit of that again.
    The only thing was the hassle.
    The road beside me was blocked for 4 days and another one even nearer to the coast was completely filled in for a week before it could be cleared.
    Thats a week after the snow stopped falling.

    Whilst I cant pin point the exact dates,I remember several times in that snowy decade when an Easterly lasted and penetrated long enough to give more than 6 inches of snow.
    I suppose that spoiled me in that it set the standard and it always amuses me now to see people getting excited over a dusting which is nothing basically.


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