05-06 snowy weather indications (part 5)

lucernarian

The other thread was growing pretty quick so I thought part 5 was in order. (Hope that's okay with you Earthman)

Anyway 18Z charts would give a snow-lover depression after earlier on today. It seems that Ireland will not get its fair share just yet:( I'd laugh manically if the ensembles did another u-turn tomorrow:eek:

At least we should have some nice, crisp winter weather next week.

Mothman

It would bode well for Irish sea showers.

Especially as sea temps are a healthy 11C all round the island, so if there is unstable air, that is in our favour for showers forming.


BTW links at end of previous threads to next one would be useful.

mothman

mothman wrote:

As for 27th Feb 2001, Very windy cold day. Max 1.8C, min 0.2C with dew point not falling below -1C. Over 10mm precipitation, of which some must have fallen as snow, but melted on impact.

If I remember correctly, it snowed most of the day here that day but didnt settle untill dark, then it whitened the ground a good bit, but maybe an inch, thats all.
Certainly a lot less than Dublin.
I drove up to Bally cogue, just 5 miles away and at 600ft asl approx and the snow was on the road above the wheels of the jeep.

As for next week, I don't think there be much precipitation, (pressure too high staying above 1020hPa) and with me I'm doubtful of seeing any snow, never mind any settling.

As for -5C 850 temps, arn't 2m temps usually about 10C above th 850 temps, although I know in a high pressure there is often little difference, but then there is no precipitation anyway. The 850 temps over us today are -1C to +1C, so -5C is not much colder.

My jury is entirely out on this one.
I kind of am expecting snow.The BBC forecasts tonight seem to have a lot of precipitation coming well inland over the East and south of the UK - so I dont know what that means pressure wise, but I'd have thought it meant they think it will be lower.
It would bode well for Irish sea showers.
Very very hard to say at this stage.
I'm inclined to think aswell that the 850 charts we are all looking at are indicative only and , the air aloft might and certainly possibly should be cold enough for snow especially since the source should almost guarantee low dew points.

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

Especially as sea temps are a healthy 11C all round the island, so if there is unstable air, that is in our favour for showers forming.


BTW links at end of previous threads to next one would be useful.

LoL

Do you hear that now "to be confirmed" !

lucernarian

earthman wrote:

LoL

Do you hear that now "to be confirmed" !

I heard that "hint" loud and clear:p

ninebeanrows

WoW i cant believe i was so lucky!

But there were blizzards here for like 18 hours! and the electricity went
for around 48hrs!
It took a good few hours early that morning to cover those puddles! but it sure
covered them and so much more!:D
That was Feb 27th 2001

Onward to the coming week.

Were looking at 3-4 days of cold weather maxima of 1-4c with some
light showers affecting the east with the possibility of a covering in some
places;)

Supercell

00z brings the cold further west..ohh dear..i'm getting very excited now!!

Mothman

Quote:
Originally Posted by earthman

LoL

Do you hear that now "to be confirmed" !

I heard that "hint" loud and clear

Earthman, that "hint" was aimed at you so don't be passing it on!!!
as it wasn't "to be confirmed" that locked the thread while I was compiling a reply. :rolleyes:

Well if that cold can become entrenched here, then we could see some action when we get weather from the atlantic, though this "action" is still most likely over Britain rather than here.

lucernarian

mothman wrote:

Earthman, that "hint" was aimed at you so don't be passing it on!!!
as it wasn't "to be confirmed" that locked the thread while I was compiling a reply.

Well if that cold can become entrenched here, then we could see some action when we get weather from the atlantic, though this "action" is still most likely over Britain rather than here.

Heh, I figured you were doing as much. That "hint" will put the moderator in his place, no doubt!:p

Mothman

Sat Morn 0755z Met Eireann radio forecast.

Mon, Tues dry, uncertain for Wednesday, but possibility of sleet, snow showers for east. Actually , he might have said flurries. Thursday onwards, fronts from atlantic will be trying to push in. It was obviously more detailed than this, but there wasn't anything to perk my ears.

and from website

3 Day Outlook:
Turning cold after dark on Christmas day with a sharp to severe frost developing. Some fog will develop too. St Stephens Day will be cold and bright with frost and fog clearing gradually with some sunshine breaking through and it will be a predominantly dry day. It'll become very cold again after dark with frost and fog returning. Cold Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. It may be breezy on Tuesday but it will again be a mostly dry day although outbreaks of rain may develop in the West towards the end of the day. Wednesday will again be mostly dry if somewhat cloudy.

lucernarian

The 00Z Dublin set of ensemble models show a very clear split as to what the outcome will be on Wednesday. 5 runs say very cold weather and the other 5 runs say cool but not cold enough for snow. The -5 celsius line is key here:

ActuallyI'd have thought that wasnt a bad ensemble albeit for 2 days only.
The blue line is the control run by the way and it dives down to -7c for 3 days and thats the one to watch for the 00z.
Some of the runs are actually colder.

Also remember that this is indicative only-The most important thing to consider I think here is the source of the air and its surface path both of which are very cold.
Also the UKMO this morning wants to delay those fronts coming in ie prolong the Easterly which will if its the case do 2 things assuming the flow is strong... make it colder and basically get weatherfronts caught up in the Eastern half of the country.
Now that would be interesting especially for high ground.

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

make it colder and basically get weatherfronts caught up in the Eastern half of the country.
Now that would be interesting especially for high ground.

Indeed, and high ground is only 5 miles away

ninebeanrows

I suppose the 6z should confirm whether we get the cold spell or not.

Im pretty sceptical of those 5 ENS's as all global models now back at
least a 3-4 day easterly even here.

What i want to find out is that if we have a slack easterly flow

Say 16knots easterly with pressure of 1020mb

Would be be likely to see showers kicked up from the Irish sea?
They certainly wouldnt penetrate inland much

ninebeanrows

6z looking better so far:D

ninebeanrows

Yes high further north within a (allowing for wobbability factors recently) semi reliable 72hr timeframe

That means more wind

Hmmm yes -30c 500mb air covering an Eastern slice of Ireland...
I'll vote for that.

ninebeanrows

CHILLY:D

ninebeanrows

It isnt that far away from one of those postcard events we use
to compare things against

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif

pressure below 1020 too and probably 1015
Lower still would be nice but the ingredients for an interesting day are there for wenesday , though with the current wobbling of these models, wenesday could change yet for the warmer.

LoL

I know they arent the most reliable precipitation charts but, this would pepper the East coast with showers and give a good covering...

darkman2

I think its set in stone now, the east coast will see snow showers between the 26th (night) and the 29th (evening) with possibly the mild v cold battle being fought on our shores:D

ninebeanrows

yep it is looking good!

It's feast or famine:D

We have Christmas and a Siberian Blast all in the space of a day:D

darkman2

Classic snow situation, latest fax chart: cold v mild::D http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF



Also this:http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=9893

ninebeanrows

It all looks good for our 72hr easterly Blast:D

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

darkman2

Met Eireann should issue a warning soon i would have thought, they cant ignore it. Personally I reckon their about to be caught out yet agian in an easterly setup.

P.S dont be supprised if 12z is a downgrade as it was a worse run yesterday. 06z has been the most consistent and positive run so thats the one to stick with:D

Supercell

It does look rather good have to say and couldnt come at a better time, bought myself a spare battery for the camera and a 512mb flash card..I plan on taking LOADS of snaps as spells like this dont happen to often!!

ninebeanrows

Yea but i cant see much in the way of precip to warrant a warning;)

Supercell

Precip forecasts are well dodgy at this range..wont really know till the night before tbh, that said..a warmish sea plus a ne wind..normally delivers the goods!!

They did mention light sleet and snow showers in the East on wenesday and thursday on their 755am forecast.
That would be a complete turn around on what they were forecasting even two days ago and what was reflected and still is in their web site.

But remember its the holiday season...
The last thing that gets updated is the web site when theres presents to be bought, this is after all Ireland

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

It all looks good for our 72hr easterly Blast:D

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

Hi weathercheck, if this dosnt deliver snow I dont know what will:D :

As long as you live near the east coast you should see a few flurries at least:D

ninebeanrows

I wonder in years to come will we be looking back to the Christmas period of 2005 and talking about how the severest winter since 87' began:D

You know Scandy Highs are really hard to move once they are in control
and especially when temperatures across western europe dip well below
freezing.

We could just be starting to see the beginning for the great winter of 05/06:D

It all looks good!

And perhaps most importantly it's only late December!

Agreed

Charts like that are reminisent of the 1980's and everyone of them delivered snow.
The last serious Scandi high like this one that I remember was way back in february 01 iirc and that dumped about 6 or 8 inches here in heavy showers.
Most of that actually fell on a friday night into saturday morning.
The milder weather arrived on Tuesday but it still took a few days to shift the snow.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Agreed

Charts like that are reminisent of the 1980's and everyone of them delivered snow.
The last serious Scandi high like this one that I remember was way back in february 01 iirc and that dumped about 6 or 8 inches here in heavy showers.
Most of that actually fell on a friday night into saturday morning.
The milder weather arrived on Tuesday but it still took a few days to shift the snow.

I of course meant february 91 iirc around valentines day

Gonzo

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

darkman2

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Sry mate, impossible to say 'how much' just now as the charts have been mental these last few days. Tomorrow we will know for ceratin:)

Mothman

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Longfield is right with his word,

though I still think that precipitation levels will be low, but not as low as I said earlier

jd

Longfield wrote:

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

I thought weahtercheck v1.01 had reaapeared for a second..:)

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

Is your hat on your menu

Duiske

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.
By the way, weather check has not updated his site for awhile, but he must be proud of the last sentence on his homepage. Great call !! :cool:

Supercell

Mothman wrote:

Is your hat on your menu

Hehe, I think i'm infected with whatever WC V1.01 had before!!

darkman2

Met Eireann, I dont know what they are up to, they still dont acknowledge at least the possibility of snow:rolleyes:

Supercell

Duiske_Lad wrote:

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.
By the way, weather check has not updated his site for awhile, but he must be proud of the last sentence on his homepage. Great call !! :cool:

Absolutely, its very hard to forecast, historically in the great freeze ups in my lifetime..which have had setups not unlike this..the Irish Sea delivered the goods

Mothman

darkman2 wrote:

Met Eireann, I dont know what they are up to, they still dont acknowledge at least the possibility of snow:rolleyes:

yes the website doesn't agree with their spoken word. They mentioned snow at 0755z

Mothman

Duiske_Lad wrote:

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.

That's how I see it. It just can't be predicted what troughs etc will get here until much closer to time. But sea temps are a high 11C which will be a good enhancement to any feature, providing it doesn't warm the air too much.

Well as I said earlier, they're probably all out buying presents...

FFS theres no news on aertel or weather for that matter on Xmas day.
The Russians could be setting up camp in Gorey for all we know( if our radios were broken and the tv was stuck on text )

To reply to Duiske_Lad

Yes some areas will be lucky and pick up all the showers and others none.
The Friday saturday showers that I spoke of in 1991 were particularally heavy here but Dublin got none of them.
Driving north on the N11 the snow went as far as the Beehive pub.There was very little in wicklow town.

That said, we simply cant count chickens here untill sunday evening as this weather will be at its most intense for us from wenesday onwards tbh I think.
It should be very clear what precipitation there will be by monday evening.
The latest Fax charts from the UKMO indicate a lot though...
Very subject to change still.
A subtle rise in pressure and your chances of snow could be scuppered.

SpitfireIV

Is there annual awards on this site? If so I think this thread would win 'Most Exciting' or 'RollerCoaster Ride of the Year', .

Great stuff guys, glued to it here, thanks for all the great info!

CroppyBoy1798

darkman2

Were in the depth of winter, the days are at their shortest, the dew points at their lowest, I would be absolutly astonished if no sleet or snow fell in at least some Eastern areas, this is an easterly afterall;)

Below zero dewpoints would be nice

My website which updates every 5 minutes is down due to the server in the states being off line

I hope it goes back up and doesnt stay down right through this cold spell