05-06 snowy weather indications (part 4)

Scubadevils

netweather and TWO going into complete meltdown! Seems to be back on with a bigger punch

billy the squid

heh
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/138_30.gif

cold indeed.

darkman2

Hi all, well ive been saying it for a while now, it may actually come to fruition. 06z GFS is perhaps over the top but certainly a possibility.

On this run, hail,sleet or even snow showers would effect Eastern and Southeastern areas especially but could become more widespread. Its early days for the models which are really struggling with this so dont take it too seriously. Wait for todays later model runs. If its similar I will post the most important charts but at the moment there really is no point as it could all change very dramatically:)

darkman2

Just noticed the UKMO has come into line aswell:D WOW temps of 1C at 12 noon nezt Wednesday:eek:

ninebeanrows

Hah the 6z is ultra amazing:D




:eek:

ninebeanrows

If the 6z comes off. SNOW SNOW SNOW for Dublin and the east:D

darkman2

Hi WC, I wouldnt count those chickens just yet. This model needs serious backup later today. Chances are with sea temps between 5 and 6 degrees in the Irish sea I would have thought sleety/haily stuff would affect coastal areas. But this could change, only one run:)

Off ye go - post all your thoughts on whatever trend you want to highlight in advance of it happening in the winter season here.

As per the charter-no new threads on potential severe weather unless it's merited-otherwise the new threads will be merged into this one which is a waste of time and effort for the mod and the poster

This thread will remain a sticky and is likely to be replaced by a part 2 thread , a part 3 thread etc depending on how long or unwieldy it gets.

I'd rather not see each part longer than 3 or 4 pages-so thats the rule of thumb.
For continuity purposes, if you as a poster can remember that guideline,then at page 3 or 4, you can start a new one with the same title and I will lock & unsticky this one and sticky the new one.

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

Hah the 6z is ultra amazing:D




:eek:

Here is the run from that New Zealand site mentioned in a thread

Squidvicious

I don't think snow is nailed on for Ireland yet . I reckon that it'll probably be cold enough - dew-points are generally quite low on an easterly which allows snow to fall even at 1 or 2 C . The problem is that the High Pressure doesn't appear to drift quite far enough North to allow the real Easterly airflow to properly affect us according to most models . It's nearly there , though !

Thank God I'm in the South-East which puts me near the front of the snow- queue for a change:D

That suggests lake effect showers along the East coast

Though further out into fantasy island,it looks like a cold v mild battle with us unfortunately on the mild side of it.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1924.png

I pay little heed to anything beyond 4 or 5 days though and I doubt anyone else will that has any sense.

darkman2

The 12z is a disappionting run for us but there is room for upgrade. The later models will tell alot. The ensembles will probrably put this run on the slightly milder side:)


Just as I suspected the East would be affected by SSTs

Supercell

The 12z control run is a total cold outlier for Dublin ...



The charts you are posting are all from the heavy blue run in the image above for those who dont already know this, ecm has downgraded the cold, in fact GFS is the only model one to still have it.

Am sorry to say, I think the chances of snow in the next couple of weeks looks pretty low right now , at least here in Ireland.

darkman2

Yep an amazingly cold outlier, I reckon the nails are goin into the coffin now. The UK might not see any of this either as the UKMO 12z is about to once again go completely against the GFS

Supercell

One thing most of the models agree on is that there will be high pressure over the country during the christmas period, which if its clear would mean lovely cool crisp days but frosty nights, not bad at all for the time of year imho

Scubadevils

I'd rather cool and crisp alright to semi-mild and damp. I would love a decent snow event around Christmas or shortly after but my main concern is to get something decent before the winter ends at least. Can't take much more of these changes, head wreckin!

Danno

Light flurries in the SE and E

darkman2

The models really are not handling this now at all. Its unbelievable that 80hrs out we have no agreement whatsoever. It must be down to the evolution of the high which is unusual. Dont rule anything in or out yet:)

lucernarian

My oh my, this place has been busy since my cold outlier chart:D There have been some real twists and turns in the last 48 hrs but they seem to go from one extreme outside chance to the other.

My logic tells me that it will be a compromise of 3 or 4 cold days with frosty nights. I will be very suprised to see any snow post-Xmas.

At least there's always January and February to look forward to:rolleyes:

Danno

Where is Weathercheck, we need some optimism around this place! :P

darkman2

This is a write off but mark my words this is a blessing in disguise. Once the high drifts south it is VERY likely it will retrogress west giving us a very potent Northerly blast im sure at some stage in the next week and a half. Winter aint over by a long shot:D

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

One thing most of the models agree on is that there will be high pressure over the country during the christmas period, which if its clear would mean lovely cool crisp days but frosty nights, not bad at all for the time of year imho

A big if. It seems more aften than not high pressure = gloom during winter.
Is there indication that this will be different?

Probably mothman if it avoids a southwest flow as opposed to a southeast flow.
A slight northeast flow seems more likely-ergo it should be clearer I think.

As for snow.
Chances very poor here now right up to the new year unlike our friends across the water who could be in for a cold mild battle of the type that produces a lot of snow before the mild wins.
Looks like no contest here at all mild all the way with the exception of some frost over the Xmas.
Dry too.

Squidvicious

I certainly wouldn't write off the chances of snow next week . It'll take only a small change in synoptics to allow snow showers in the East and South-East on Tuesday . I reckon it's a 50/50 shot at the moment . In fact the latest UKMO charts show a decent ENE flow reaching the S E by Tuesday which could easily draw in a few showers over the Irish Sea . Much of our snow (esp. in the East) comes when little features develop around the edge of a High Pressure system . By their nature , they're very hard to spot at this distance . The current set-up remind me of Christmas '96/'97 when we got a good snowfall on New Years' Night . That wasn't really forecast too well either .

The battle between the cold and mild air on Thur. looks fascinating . I know the charts show us in the mild air and rain , but that could easily change . Really cold air is hard to shift and the models may well be over-estimating how quickly the cold air will retreat . The great blizzard of Feb. '78 had been forecast to move North-East and turn to rain here , but instead gave us six inches .

Squidvicious

Edit my above post- the GFS this morning looks unbelievable . High Pressure retreating North allowing a cold and showery Easterly . IF that chart comes off ,widespread snow is nailed on for next week .

JackieChan

I may not be interpreting these models correctly, but if this is expected air/near ground temperatures next Thursday could be very cold

yes it will be mild again on tonights charts-that seems to be the roller coaster , whatever they are inputting into these models at the moment.
Each run is wildly different at times.
Those last ones look lovely.
To quote the mad former BBC weather forecaster Ian McCaskill (he's the guy on the sponsorship adds for sky news weather with the big glasses and who is funny pointing out the clouds form the planes etc)

Anyway I remember in january 87, there was already a couple of inches cover in Dublin and the East and a system was approaching from Sweden to add to it...
It brought the whole country snow spreading in from the East and snow from it fell all the way down to Valentia!

There was a good 10 inches in Ballinteer.

anyways back to mccaskill...

He said "The great white siberian army approaches" when he pointed to the system that brought all that snow.

One caveat... This mornings RTE Forecast at 755am said cold and frosty but returning to normal after st stephens day with temps rising...

I'd like to know what gives them that confidence

Squidvicious

Earthman wrote:

One caveat... This mornings RTE Forecast at 755am said cold and frosty but returning to normal after st stephens day with temps rising...

I'd like to know what gives them that confidence

Seems to be a bit out of date at the moment - big change to the models this morning and now finally in a fairly reliable timeframe there is a real snow risk for East and South

ninebeanrows

UP DOWN UP:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

The models are all over the gaf!!

At the moment they are sweet!:D

Easterly approaches http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

Easterly arrives

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

This could be a crucial point in our winter:D

ninebeanrows

Stunning ensembles even for the misplaced Dublin point!

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Scubadevils

Odd with met forecast of mild next week! Net-weather wouldnt inspire much hope for snow here from the way they are talking.

ninebeanrows

Well if the latest GFS happens then there would be a rash of showers
pushing into the east.

The best thing about this cold spell if it were to happen would be that
days would be very short with little heating. Nights would be long so
the atmosphere would find it hard to heat up. If we were under the cold
airmass and on day 1 of the easterly the maxima was 4c i would expect day 2 to have a max of 3c, day 3 a max of 2c, day 4 a max of 1c and so forth..;)

Squidvicious

Felixdhc wrote:

Odd with met forecast of mild next week! Net-weather wouldnt inspire much hope for snow here from the way they are talking.

I've often noticed the British weather sites and forecasters tend to under-prog. snow for here . I certainly hope that's what's happening here;) . I think that the Irish met. office forecasts simply haven't updated with the latest info. Even if snow doesn't arrive here , I don't see milder conditions kicking in 'til the 29th and certainly not striaght after Stephen's Day .

If the GFS and UKMO charts come off , I'd be very confident , for the East and South-East anyway . Charts by no means set in stome yet , however .

Scubadevils

Its hard to feel confident about it though with all the swings in the models the last few days, it could disappear I'm sure again. I am really trying not to get too excited here but :eek:

ninebeanrows

Yes at this stage it is really a 60/40 situation in favour of the easterly.

In London it's a 80/20 situation

Scubadevils

So if it keeps going according to plan we should get excited from...Monday/Tuesday?

Well certainly there * should * be 2 or 3 days cold enough for snow in this ensemble

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_00.gif?9d37510600c708a7570526a94d9e5a0c

The UKMO have put out early warnings for heavy snow in the south and East of England...but that is closer to the coldest air.

It would be ironic for it to be snowing in the Scilly isles and a beautifull midish day in our neck of the woods.

I'm not counting chickens here though, this information is swinging in all directions from run to run still such that it is unreliable.

ninebeanrows

Thankfully those are the ensembles from earlier

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

And i don't think it will be that cruel, if we dont manage to catch the cold
there will be more high pressure over the region and any snow would be limited to the very far southeast of England.

Around 50% of ensembles go for a 4-5 day spell
These are well clustered showing agreement

While 40% of the runs show milder weather / much less clustered

While the operational run goes for a 3-4 day spell

2 runs prolong the cold for 6-8 days!

But even the ensembles have given no guidance of late;)

LoL

I have to say the following is an ideal chart should it be the case...
The source all the way backinto latvia somewhere and crossing a nice cold pool en route with the HP way up north in scandinavia.
It reminds me of an 80's Easterly

And at this time of the year...
What more could you want?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVN89.TIF

Key questions are how long will this go on before the tap is turned off?
And will that hp be far enough north to stream in the coldest air?

Will we have a shallow low develop in the Irish sea? Those were a treat in the 80's,the snow pelts down in Dublin and along the East coast for hours when one of them develops

Scubadevils

Earthman wrote:

Will we have a shallow low develop in the Irish sea? Those were a treat in the 80's,the snow pelts down in Dublin and along the East coast for hours when one of them develops

Oh I hope so

And from the Met ÉIREANN OUTLOOK :d

Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

Clearly they dont place much faith in this model... -10c 850 over the north of Ireland :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png


That said guys this might never happen-its been cancelled about 10 times already

ninebeanrows

yea were about to reach the crucial 24hrs if the 12z is good were half way there and if tomorrows 00z is the same i think we will have made it:D

At the moment the cold solution is the more likely outcome;)

Scubadevils

I cant understand how the met would put this up if there was a question mark over it. Frequently they don't go beyond 3 days yet here they go pretty much to the end of next week, why go that far if there is such uncertainty?

3 Day Outlook:
Cold overnight on Christmas Eve with some frost and fog. Christmas Day will be cool and bright with some sun at times. But turning very cold after dark with a sharp to severe frost developing. Some fog too. St Stephens Day will be cold and bright with frost and fog clearing gradually. Some sunny spells. Very cold again after dark with frost and fog returning. Cold Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

darkman2

Hi everyone, this is my third time waking up to half decent charts. The ensembles for Dublin look geat. I count 4 colder runs then this one which has to give confidence that were just hours away from this being in the bag. However the UKMO as far as were concerned still concerns me, and the ECM dosnt appear to be working right now. GEM FI is one hell of a run too:D

Squidvicious

Felixdhc wrote:

I cant understand how the met would put this up if there was a question mark over it. Frequently they don't go beyond 3 days yet here they go pretty much to the end of next week, why go that far if there is such uncertainty?

3 Day Outlook:
Cold overnight on Christmas Eve with some frost and fog. Christmas Day will be cool and bright with some sun at times. But turning very cold after dark with a sharp to severe frost developing. Some fog too. St Stephens Day will be cold and bright with frost and fog clearing gradually. Some sunny spells. Very cold again after dark with frost and fog returning. Cold Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

I'm sorry , but this outlook is nonsense bearing in mind today's charts . Unfortunately , meteireann only update once a day so no change for a bit . I'm off 'til tomorrow . In the meantime my prediction is snow for the E and S E next week .:D

darkman2

Surely the 12z is make or break now:D

It hasnt even winked so far
Game seems on.
But I'll caution that wenesday is still 5 days out.
But look at this chart.
Screaming Easterly TBH with a very very cold source

I'd still be greasing the sleigh if this chart comes off.... (touching forest)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.html

darkman2

Downgrade 12z but not a complete disaster, the East could still see some flurries:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Ardly much of a downgrade and plenty of time to go yet

Details will come later the pattern is there.

Lets wait for the ENS's;)

darkman2

Ensembles are out, this run definatley a bit milder than the last but still VERY inconclusive:

lucernarian

Lol I can't stick all the U-turns! I suppose I'll have to make a brave call and stick to my forecast of cool but dry on Tuesday/Wednesday. I still feel the charts are varying far too wildly to be taken seriously.

Will the rte country forecast be on any of the days?

And OT question here (sorry guys) but what exactly happened on Shrove Tuesday 2001? Was that a northerly? I had snow lying on a patio 2 weeks after that day.