05-06 winter weather indications (part 3)

Off ye go - post all your thoughts on whatever trend you want to highlight in advance of it happening in the winter season here.

As per the charter-no new threads on potential severe weather unless it's merited-otherwise the new threads will be merged into this one which is a waste of time and effort for the mod and the poster

This thread will remain a sticky and is likely to be replaced by a part 2 thread , a part 3 thread etc depending on how long or unwieldy it gets.

I'd rather not see each part longer than 3 or 4 pages-so thats the rule of thumb.
For continuity purposes, if you as a poster can remember that guideline,then at page 3 or 4, you can start a new one with the same title and I will lock & unsticky this one and sticky the new one.

lucernarian

Unfortunately there seems to be no sight of cold weather except in the weather charts many days away. It will get warmer before it gets colder.

Danno

Yup, a euro high looks like setting up over the weekend steering up warm(er) southerlies, after that though is anyones guess - I feel that the high could be shifted over to Norway where the infamous scandi blocking high begin to setup.

Lots of very cold air pooling over E Poland at the mo - a nice E wind could steer it over here...

Yeah, its getting lovely and cold over Europe especially Russia now-its all snow covered in the last week or so which will aid the cooling and ultimately provide the fridge for any Easterly sent our way.

Here is the current snow map of the world and its now very impressive.
Scandi is snow covered too-also a good sign.

billy the squid

All the cars around here have white bonets and white rooves (or is it roofs) but it doesnt feel cold.

Strasser

Earthman wrote:

Here is the current snow map of the world and its now very impressive.
Scandi is snow covered too-also a good sign.

Excellent map, thanks.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Dublin ensemble from this morning.
Though the latter half of it is in whats called fantasy island and also remembering that forecasting weather more than 5 days out is fantasy island.
The GFS weather model is struggling to find anything cold enough for snow in Dublin in the run up to Xmas.

ninebeanrows

Hi all -

Firstly i'd like to apologise for my behaviour prior to my ban and thank the admins for their leinancy - It would like to apologise personally to Earthman who i lost the plot with over my poor forecasts!


Onward and upward the outlook for the coming 2 weeks is pretty, well to be honest it looks pretty dire. Mild cloudy dull drizzly days for much of the country for a 5 or 6 day period from Friday. There is some small signals that high pressure over us will ridge into the atlantic and attempt to ridge north from around December 15th with the potential for a northerly plunge sometime after then.

Last year i correctly predicted a white Christmas around 16 days before Christmas. Back in December 04' there were much better indications of the onset of a cold spell during Christmas and infact the intensity of the spell was wittled down right before the event. This year the signs arent all bad but certainly aren;t anything to get excited about. The likely outcome is for cooler weather around thie period with High Pressure sitting close to the west of Ireland but with potential for a blast of artic air.

Anyway i'll keep you posted and i'll issue my thoughts concerning a white Chritmas ever few days for your viewing pleasure!

- Oh and during the Northerly which i missed on here i amazingly woke up to a nioce dusting of snow!
Well i didnt wake up as i was awake all night and was up for the 10 minute snow shower that gave use the dusting! It was wuite heavy for a time with massive flakes floating in!
A great start to the season, just a pity the shower managed to arrive at one of the worst parts of the night, 4am!

ninebeanrows

Danno wrote:

Welcome back WC!

Unusually downbeat prediction for Christmas from you!

Thanks Danno !:D

I hope i last through the next cold spell/snap!

But the present outlook is about as bad as ya can get so its all up from here!

heh
Dont dispair.
Best and longest cold snaps I've experienced were in january and february-In fact I think the only ice days that I've experienced in Ireland were in those months with the exception of a few years ago when we had some Ice days over Xmas.

Historically one of the biggest snowfalls was in early march 1947

I didnt experience that one

Oh and lets hope it comes from the East when it does come-A northerly is pathetic.

Gonzo

yeah December so far is looking pretty rubbish, lets hope things really get going after christmas:)

One of the heaviest snowfalls I can remember I think was actually in the first or 2nd week of April in the late eighties, I remember waking up to about 8 inchs of snow then a rapid thaw set in that day, only had about 3 inchs left by the end of the day.

Danno

Danno wrote:

Oh no Earthman, diving NW Polar Lows are just fine here in Laois, just fine, don't go jinxing it now!

Nah, they'll only give you a few inches, thats nothing.
Plus anything that comes in off the Atlantic means, theres an open door for the mild weather to come back too soon to take it away.

The Easterly is and always was the Boss when it comes to Real cold weather.
Mix it with a cold vs mild battle like january 1982 and you get 20ft drifts , Roads blocked and airlifts to the isolated people on high ground.
A north west wind is childs play in comparison and has never in my lifetime delivered anything like that anywhere on this island*


*Note, while its hard to believe, you'd soon get sick of that when you start running out of fresh milk and food which is what happened after a week in january 1982 because road and rail traffic was impossible

ninebeanrows

Very quiet on here....

Basically at the mo the weather looks like turning cold from December 18th for a periods of 5 or more days, so the liklyhood of a white Christmas is increased as against average.

A northerly flow is set to become established due to atlantic blocking but as the block collapses a link up with a developing SCANDY high looks likely leading to a chilly easterly around Xmas.

More later:cool:

Danno

Looks like an average week ahead with the possibility of some hard frosts, dry though.

ninebeanrows

Some major developments tonight on the weather front.

GFS backed by UKMO and somewhat backed by ECM all go for quite an
intense northerly plunge from next Saturday for a 4-5 days period giving
widespread snowy conditions.

The ENS's show a 50/50 split in the scenario, if it doesnt occur there is still a massive liklyhood of a severe cold plunge around XMAS.

But for ramping sake this evening operational GFS was going for widepread snow and then a 3-4 day northerly with temps of 1-3c and minima of -4c with a gale force deeply unsettled northerly airstream:D

I came on here to warn everybody, that todays runs were likely to have wc on here ramping like blazes.
I guess I was late

Softly softly though.
The ingredients are there to provide what yez want but they have to come together first in the way that the models reckon they will...
Last january,the models were thinking of dropping their knickers too but pulled out as they werent drunk enough untill february to put on the show and most people only got an inch or two (if even that) before wet cold muck replaced it.
Hardly very exciting.

That said the high pressure is building and blocking in the Atlantic a lot sooner this time round keeping the temperate zonal out.
I'd give this a 3 out of 10 for excitement for now rising to 4.5 out of 10 if the 18z says pretty much what the 12 z has said.
Come wenesday or thursday of next week if, its all still in place-then its time to get excited.
Could be all mild again by Xmas though.

lucernarian

I would rather we skimped on the light Northerlies for some heavy-duty Easterly at Xmas:D

I can see the faint chance of this possible LP descending further into Europe and the Med region, which could really drag the Siberian High into our neck of the woods. That's a real long shot though.

johnnyrotten

Are you guys wanting Snow?

lucernarian

Hell Yeah! Or at least I do anyway....

Ooooh theres a bit of a shiver about some of the 12z's
Still only Fantasy island but only just

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1621.png

and

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1681.png

are great charts.

I'd be a Tad concerned though as I was never a believer in Snow too early, but I have seen snow on the ground here(a couple of inches) in the run up to Xmas before and gone by Xmas-so it has happened before, meaning it can happen again.
Will it be cold enough though....
Over to the chief ramper (and his little elves)

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Will it be cold enough though....

Probably not though the hills might be.

ninebeanrows

Yep just wanted to draw peoples attention to the wetterzentrale ensembles for Dublin. The data point is wrong and they seem to choose a datpoint
nearer Kerry than Dublin.

I always find these charts much more accurate

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/ensdia/ensdia_euro.html

If you look at the wetterzentrale GFS charts you will notice that the
above link show a much better representation of the data:)

The outlook is extremely interesting and the furthest east you are the better.

The 12z ensembles show this weekends 2-3 day cold snap but there is also a large number
of members continuing the cold theme for a prolonged period

fatherdougalmag

Earthman wrote:

Ooooh theres a bit of a shiver about some of the 12z's
Still only Fantasy island but only just

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1621.png

and

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1681.png

are great charts.

They are also 500hPa Here's the 850 for Monday 19th.

Supercell

Hmm, theres such a large amount of noise this far ahead it's hard to really lean one way or another imho.

There is definately a possibility of a couple of days at least of a cold snap..but then it could be the usual 00's mild muck we have gotten used to recently.

Fascinating charts, still all to play for, its more eyebrow raised than jumping in the air time!!

Gonzo

RTE have just forecasted a very cold but dry weekend, perhaps they are playing it safely after the trouble they got into with their snow warnings for Donegal during the last cold snap.

Supercell

The charts are all over the place at the moment, confidance is very low imho as to anything bar it will be colder than today at the weekend..forecasts of snow etc are not likely till late tomorrow imho (if at all)

ninebeanrows

terrible runs at the minute, any possible cold outbreak wont arrive until after christmas at the very earliest

Gonzo

its looking like mild wet muck for the next 2 weeks with temperature well up into double figures around Christmas (10c-13c) with alot of rain (metcheck) and a hint perhaps of colder and dryer weather after that. not good at all. One very dissapointing December overall (unless things suddenly change towards New Years)

Villain

So looks like there won't be any white xmas?

Very unlikely I would say.

All eyes in the 10 weeks after Xmas then to Scandinavia and see if a big high pressure builds there to bring in an Easterly.
It would want to be strong and long lasting to bring a sustained (more than a week) flow from a cold Eastern Europe air mass to be any good for snow.

Squidvicious

Gonzo wrote:

its looking like mild wet muck for the next 2 weeks with temperature well up into double figures around Christmas (10c-13c) with alot of rain (metcheck) and a hint perhaps of colder and dryer weather after that. not good at all. One very dissapointing December overall (unless things suddenly change towards New Years)

Not sure about mild muck for Xmas . There's a good chance that we'll have High Pressure sitting over us around Christmas . That could bring us mild muck but it's as likely to bring chilly weather with frost at night . I'd settle for that .

darkman2

Hi all, yesterdays 12z GFS was amazing featuring a complete NAD shutdown allbeit in FI. Alas this changed but some runs have stuck with it, mostly the Canadian GEM and also JMA. So maybe there is still a possibility of an easterly before January.....we hope. As for Christmas I reckon hp will be in control bringing frosty nights and cool days. Its just a case of where we go from there.

Squidvicious

Surprised to see the Irish Met. Office forecasting mild , settled weater for Christmas day and even beyond . Usually , they won't go beyond a three day outlook so it's a surprise to see them going seven days ahead . To me , it seems more likely to be cold , though settled heading into next weekend .

Gonzo

other places are going for mild weather on Christmas and as far as January 2nd where theres a hint of colder weather then.

lucernarian

(The chart produced at 0000 hrs this morning)

Is it me or is the control run crazy?

Wibbler

To_be_confirmed wrote:

(The chart produced at 0000 hrs this morning)

Is it me or is the control run crazy?

Something's afoot (possibly). The folks over on the Net-Weather winter discussion forum have kicked of a bit off a ramp.

Scubadevils

Seems all very exciting reading TWO and net but would I be right in saying it doesn't look like really making it to Ireland? As it stands anyway.

I'd relax for a bit and see some more runs first-though I jad a quick glance earlier this evening and saw a high position itself in scotland somewhere and ridging over to scandinavia.

That looked like a north East flow which is better than an Easterly at the moment as it is a good deal colder up there.
In fact Eastern Europe was almost warmer than Scotland recently so strictly East as yet is of no use in my opinion as theres not enough cold pooling out there.
There is north of East though.

To answer the question, you would want at least a week with that flow to have a good snowy impact here.
You'd notice the effects of it after 3 or 4 days but a week is what you really need and you do not want the source to be closed off after that week either.

Having said that I havent looked so at this point I dont know enough to know how much agreement there is for this or indeed what exactly is being suggested.
I also always add the caveat that weather more than a week out is indicative only and subject to change at a moments notice.
However it is always encouraging to see a Scandi high at the end of December rather than a mild south westerly obviously if you love snow

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.pngHi Earthman, im very impressed with most of the model runs most notably the ECM and JMA post Christmas. The GFS is still reluctant but it is gradually coming into line with the others. I reckon that a fundamental change to the weather pattern is about to happen with a more continental influence. Either way this means colder weather. Looking at the various model indicators there is certainly the chance real winter weather from the 25th or 26th with sleet or snow a possibility later next week, even at lower levels. A long way to go but the signs are good so far.

darkman2

Thats better:D

darkman2

Hi Felixdhc,
Theres a few things that need to be ironed out but it should be darn cold particularly in the East and Southeast and if you go by ECM (which has been the most consistent model this winter) then the signs for us are very good indeed. Its still in fantasy island range but im very confident something interesting is on our doorstep after xmas:D Temps between 3 and 6 C initially. The crucial -5 isotherm should also be over us.

Scubadevils

All sounds positive, afraid to get caught up in excitement of something that may not even hit us

darkman2

Your absolutly right, and nothing may come of it but its a long way off in forcasting terms so dont write it off yet:)

darkman2

Hi, another cracking run from the ECM this morning. Its approaching crunch time. In one corner the UKMO/ECM/HIRLAM, in the other GFS/JMA/NGPS and the high will almost certainly build to our north: The main question: does it come south and introduce a typical Atlantic flow (GFS)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html OR does it maintain a great posistion to our north and link with the scandi high (ECM)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Squidvicious

darkman2 wrote:

Hi, another cracking run from the ECM this morning. Its approaching crunch time. In one corner the UKMO/ECM/HIRLAM, in the other GFS/JMA/NGPS and the high will almost certainly build to our north: The main question: does it come south and introduce a typical Atlantic flow (GFS)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html OR does it maintain a great posistion to our north and link with the scandi high (ECM)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

I think we need to see signs of Low pressure building to the South to anchor the High to our North . Some signs of LP's to the South-West which might do the trick .It could be a great Christmas/New Year week:D

darkman2

12z GFS backtrack as expected. I expect upgrades of the easterly in the days ahead. The excitment mounts:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.png


GFS is gradually falling in line with the ECM. The following runs will be very interesting indeed:D

Supercell

Weathercheck must be taking valium at the moment to calm himself!!

As already pointed out, its a long way away, but has to be said some of the runs are exceedingly nice if you like cold and snow and live in the north or the eastern side of the country!

darkman2

ENSEMBLES!!!! Great support, its all coming together. I hope the 18z is as good, i suspect it will be:D http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png :cool:

3 days of near zero followed by a warm up by the looks of things.
It could be a dry 3 days too.

darkman2

Hi Earthman, IMO this is ony the start, those ensembles represent the beginning of a shift of the GFS in line with ECM which would bring snowfall to the east certainly. Ive just seen the UKMO and if yu think GFS is good wait till you see that! P.S ECM out soon, i suspect alot of ppl will be anxious to see it:D

However as it still so far out, it could be downgraded.

Supercell

Yep...lets keep out calm lads..this could yet go títsup..must admit am getting excited in a way about the charts I havent in years...

Would be nice for modern school kids will get to experiece a proper winter at last like the ones in the 80's I was so lucky to experience!!

Must get extra memory for the camera..upps..am ramping !!