Interesting No Limit Question.

Lafortezza

Stolen from twoplustwo forums.

It is the beginning of the big tournament and everyone has about $10000 in front of them. When the turn rolls around you have two opponents, both pretty good players.

The board AKQT with two diamonds. The pot has $900 in it.
The player to your right bets $200 with what you are almost sure is a straight. You have AJ of spades. You are almost sure that the guy behind you has a diamond flush draw.

Which of the following is the best move considering your position:
A. Fold
B. Call
C. Raise the minimum (to $400)
D. Raise a moderate amount (say to about $700)
E. Raise a lot (say to $2000)
F. Move All-In

There is one very important card to consider.

Marq

Interesting question. If the player behind you holds the jack of diamonds as part of his flush draw, he should be going all in if you make any raise, as he is guaranteed his stake back if both of the other players are holding the straight, and free-rolling at the rest of the pot which he'll take down if his flush draw hits (about one in five times). If he doesn't hold the jack of diamonds, but does hold two other diamonds, then a raise and a large reraise (from you) should be enough to let him know that his flush draw is behind at least one straight, and he should drop it.

So you have to decide there and then whether you're prepared to commit all of your chips to this pot which you are most likely splitting with at least one player, and possibly losing to another. If you are prepared to take those odds that the flush won't hit (about 80%), I think it's best to get all of your chips in the centre right there on the turn. The player behind you can only call if he has the made straight, he shouldn't call with a bare flush draw.

As for me:
I can't fold, because I have the nuts on the turn.
I can't flat call, because if there's any slim chance that someone is on two pair or trips or the flush draw without a jack i don't want them to get in cheap to outdraw me.
Ditto raising the minimum amount (only total pussies raise the minimum amount eh?)

There is absolutely no way that I'm going to throw away the hand, even if someone comes back over the top of me, so I think all of my chips are in the centre at this moment.

Although, If we look at the pot odds:
say you call, and the player behind you moves all-in. Say we're sure he has the diamond draw with the jack of diamonds. The first player calls, and we're sure he has the straight. I have an 80% chance of winning 33% of the pot, and a 20% chance of losing all of my chips.
4 out of five times I'll get my stake back. One out of five times I'll lose my whole tank.

If you knew this in advance, you wouldn't play the hand, as it has (how do I put this?) Negative Expected Value.

But we don't know this in advance, and we're in this situation now, and we're not guaranteed that the villian has the jack of diamonds and won't know until he acts after us.

So I'm all in. Fúck the lot of ye. 2 of spades on the river. 3-way split. Next hand please.

Lafortezza

Raise the minimum (to $400)

If you figured all that out for yourself then you're way ahead of all the pros on 2+2!
I got as far as "maybe its not as simple as call and see if there's a diamond on the river"...
When you weigh up the chance that you might split a fairly small pot or else be asked for alot more chips to see the river, then folding becomes a reasonable option since you're not pot-committed and its early in a tournament and you've plenty of chips left.

Marq

do i get a gold star now?

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

Errr, you cant fold (if you think you should fold then give up poker quickly) and you cant raise, as it hurts your EV more by having to call an all in (or moving all in and being called) if somebody is freerolling you, than it does by giving the flush draw odds to call. So the answer is call.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1114858&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&vc=1

Marq

David Sklansky: Cúnt.

On an unrelated note:
Hector - am i to take from your post that you would call, then if the the guy behind you moved in, you would fold?

DeVore

I was with marq (before I read his response which needs nothing further from me). You have the nuts. Stick it to them.

Oh and fcuk Sklansky, he's never played against Vernon!

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

Marq wrote:

David Sklansky: Cúnt.

On an unrelated note:
Hector - am i to take from your post that you would call, then if the the guy behind you moved in, you would fold?

I havent worked out the figures but I think you would still have to call.

Lafortezza

Raise the minimum (to $400)

All of Sklansky's theory type questions usually leave out some situation-specific information. If this question actually occured in real life in a tournament I'm sure the vast majority of us would be betting like maniacs to push the flush draw out. If he has Jx diamonds the so be it.

The nuts come around far too seldom.

DeVore

My question to him is "how are you 'Almost sure' of what the two guys have?". In the question he pretty much puts the two of them on exact hands. Thats not poker, poker is a sum of the probabilities of the possibilities. As you say the odds of him having a Jx of diamonds are pretty damned small so the question then is "how many saw the flop, was it raised before hand that would drive jx of diamonds out before he realises he might be on to a good thing, did he stay through a raise, was he in first position etc etc".

I admire Sklankys understanding of the maths behind the game, it far exceeds mine but these are only interesting mental gymnastic questions, instructive if you dont understand things like EV, Implied odds, pot odds etc....

DeV.

Marq

Hector put it to me last night that he thinks the problem revolves around whether or not the guy to our right who has already acted who we are "almost sure" has the straight, also has the flush draw with the jack of diamonds. While I don't think that that's the problem that Luke posted up, I agree that if you think the guy who originally raised has the made straight and the flush draw too you have to call, not allowing the guy to reraise you.

But as I say, I don't think that's the problem here - it's the free-rolling bastard who has yet to speak who we're worried about.

Lafortezza

Raise the minimum (to $400)

Marq wrote:

Hector put it to me last night that he thinks the problem revolves around whether or not the guy to our right who has already acted who we are "almost sure" has the straight, also has the flush draw with the jack of diamonds. While I don't think that that's the problem that Luke posted up,

That's pretty much what the problem boils down to. The chance that someone might be freerolling with the J diamonds to possibly make a flush means that you're in a situation where you have the chance to chop a small pot, chop a bigger pot (if there's a non-diamond river card and someone bluffs) or fold your straight if a diamond hits the river.

So while you have a nice hand, the pot isn't too big and it could all go pear-shaped depending on the guy with the 'probable' flush.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DeVore wrote:

My question to him is "how are you 'Almost sure' of what the two guys have?". In the question he pretty much puts the two of them on exact hands. Thats not poker, poker is a sum of the probabilities of the possibilities. As you say the odds of him having a Jx of diamonds are pretty damned small so the question then is "how many saw the flop, was it raised before hand that would drive jx of diamonds out before he realises he might be on to a good thing, did he stay through a raise, was he in first position etc etc".

I admire Sklankys understanding of the maths behind the game, it far exceeds mine but these are only interesting mental gymnastic questions, instructive if you dont understand things like EV, Implied odds, pot odds etc....

DeV.

The situations are a bit contrived so that the discussion can take place over the important aspect of the question, rather than getting caught up in all the usual crap. The fact that I have never seen this important area discussed seems to bear witness to the fact that these interesting mental gymnastics questions are instuctive to everyone. In fact if you dont understand EV & pot odds etc I dont think you can learn much from them, you need to have a good grounding to understand the mechanics of the computation.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

Marq wrote:

Hector put it to me last night that he thinks the problem revolves around whether or not the guy to our right who has already acted who we are "almost sure" has the straight, also has the flush draw with the jack of diamonds. While I don't think that that's the problem that Luke posted up, I agree that if you think the guy who originally raised has the made straight and the flush draw too you have to call, not allowing the guy to reraise you.

But as I say, I don't think that's the problem here - it's the free-rolling bastard who has yet to speak who we're worried about.

You are pretty sure that the first guy has the straight, and that the second person has the second guy has a flush draw. If the second guy has the J of diamonds then he has the straight as well, and since Sklansky didnt mention that he could have the straight then you can ignore this possibility.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

lafortezza wrote:

That's pretty much what the problem boils down to. The chance that someone might be freerolling with the J diamonds to possibly make a flush means that you're in a situation where you have the chance to chop a small pot, chop a bigger pot (if there's a non-diamond river card and someone bluffs) or fold your straight if a diamond hits the river.

So while you have a nice hand, the pot isn't too big and it could all go pear-shaped depending on the guy with the 'probable' flush.

No, hes not the important person here, the first guy is.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DeVore wrote:

My question to him is "how are you 'Almost sure' of what the two guys have?". In the question he pretty much puts the two of them on exact hands. Thats not poker, poker is a sum of the probabilities of the possibilities. As you say the odds of him having a Jx of diamonds are pretty damned small so the question then is "how many saw the flop, was it raised before hand that would drive jx of diamonds out before he realises he might be on to a good thing, did he stay through a raise, was he in first position etc etc".

I admire Sklankys understanding of the maths behind the game, it far exceeds mine but these are only interesting mental gymnastic questions, instructive if you dont understand things like EV, Implied odds, pot odds etc....

DeV.

This is a question with a easily deductable answer, but nearly everyone who answered, both here and on 2+2 got it wrong. Does that tell you something about its usefullness?

Fr0g

Raise to a moderate amount (say $700)

Maybe I haven't thought this through all the way. If he has the Jd he will see your all in to get a share of the pot with top straight and has the possibility of drawing a flush. No?

DeVore

Correct Fr0g. Thats basically the nub of the question. Sklansky tells you that he "almost certainly" has a flush draw. If its a high diamond but not the Jack then he cant/shouldnt call your all in. If its the Jack of diamonds, he already has the nuts and is drawing to a better hand/the-stone-colds.

HJ point is that if he has X of diamonds he cant/shouldnt call the 200 on the turn as he doesnt have the odds for it (thats a BIG presumption that he's a sufficently good player that he realises that, you might have to make it a little more *obvious* to him but thats a moot point). If he has the J diamonds he's freerolling (ie: he cant do worse then you and has a 1/5 shot roughly at doing better).

HJ.... If I was holding the A diamonds I might well take the odds anyway, on the grounds that I could make more if it hits from a lower flush (*you* seem to have perfect knowledge of your opponents cards, it doesnt say that HE might not think you are both on flush draws and expected to get paid if it hits.... in which case he's right to take the bet for the implied odds...).

In short, these kind of questions are mental gymnastics for maths geeks (of which I'm one!) and possibly highlight an interesting facet of Poker but to talk of "right" and "wrong".... maybe online where you dont look into their eyes and read them... but in the real world theres a LOT more going on then the maths and thats something I've had to learn the hard way...

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DeVore wrote:

Correct Fr0g. Thats basically the nub of the question. Sklansky tells you that he "almost certainly" has a flush draw. If its a high diamond but not the Jack then he cant/shouldnt call your all in. If its the Jack of diamonds, he already has the nuts and is drawing to a better hand/the-stone-colds.

He doesnt have the J of diamonds.

DeVore wrote:

HJ point is that if he has X of diamonds he cant/shouldnt call the 200 on the turn as he doesnt have the odds for it (thats a BIG presumption that he's a sufficently good player that he realises that, you might have to make it a little more *obvious* to him but thats a moot point). If he has the J diamonds he's freerolling (ie: he cant do worse then you and has a 1/5 shot roughly at doing better).

He doesnt have the J of diamonds, and he does have the right odds to call. In fact the whole nub of the problem lies in the fact that if you simply call then he does have the correct odds to call, so in this case you should normally raise to hurt his EV if he calls. However, if you raise, it means that the ORIGINAL bettor can reraise, and there is a chance that he has a flush draw, AS WELL as the straight draw, which means effectively that you are risking your whole stack to split the pot. The EV that you give up by not raising is more than made up for the EV of reopening the betting for the original better.

The moral of the story, is that sometimes you have to give up the chance of hurting somebodies EV (and remember this is a zero sum game, so this means increasing your EV), if by doing so you might be giving another player a chance to signifently lower your EV.

DeVore wrote:

HJ.... If I was holding the A diamonds I might well take the odds anyway, on the grounds that I could make more if it hits from a lower flush (*you* seem to have perfect knowledge of your opponents cards, it doesnt say that HE might not think you are both on flush draws and expected to get paid if it hits.... in which case he's right to take the bet for the implied odds...).

Hes getting the right odds to call, not regarding implied odds.

DeVore wrote:

In short, these kind of questions are mental gymnastics for maths geeks (of which I'm one!) and possibly highlight an interesting facet of Poker but to talk of "right" and "wrong".... maybe online where you dont look into their eyes and read them... but in the real world theres a LOT more going on then the maths and thats something I've had to learn the hard way...

DeV.

This is complete nonsense. The situation described could only come about if you are a very good reader of people, so its far more likely to happen live than online. And it helps you to make the right decision should this situation ever arise, or one similar. There are plenty of times in poker when it comes down to simple math, in fact every hand you play is simply an extension of your ability to use applied statistics, wether you realise this or not is another thing.

Just because pscyhology plays a part of poker doesnt mean that you should ignore the maths.

DapperGent

Tell me Hector which has better +EV, politeness or rudeness?

bohsman

refusing to look at all this +Negative rubbish and concentrating on how the flush draw with the J is going to play the hand, if I flat call I might get to see the river on the cheap, minimum raise and moderate raise are just asking the freeroller to come over the top and a raise of two thousand might just get him to flat call to keep others in the pot

DeVore

I'm not following something here or I'm thinking about this from a weird angle.

You dont know that the Jack is out there. If it IS out there then HE doesnt know that Kd or Ad or Qd coupled with Jsch isnt out there which he has to fear if he doesnt have the high diamond. The question is far from cut and dried.


DeV.

DeVore

Hectorjelly wrote:

He doesnt have the J of diamonds.



<snip> However, if you raise, it means that the ORIGINAL bettor can reraise, and there is a chance that he has a flush draw, AS WELL as the straight draw, which means effectively that you are risking your whole stack to split the pot. The EV that you give up by not raising is more than made up for the EV of reopening the betting for the original better.

<snip>
This is complete nonsense.
<snip>

Er, from the original question:

The player to your right bets $200 with what you are almost sure is a straight. You have AJ of spades. You are almost sure that the guy behind you has a diamond flush draw.

Want to be careful there Hector, even superman was injured falling off a high horse....

DeV.

mewso

5/1 Hector will never start a post with "I think the best thing to do here is...."

bohsman

You want to keep the flusher in without commiting all your chips, whatever i voted i think the 2000 bet is the best option if the flusher doesnt have the Jd youre going to win 4/5 of the time if he does have the Jd you can still get away from the hand if a diamond comes on the river and I know theres a 2s coming on the river... its obvious if you do the maths. :rolleyes:

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DeVore wrote:

Er, from the original question:

The player to your right bets $200 with what you are almost sure is a straight. You have AJ of spades. You are almost sure that the guy behind you has a diamond flush draw.

Want to be careful there Hector, even superman was injured falling off a high horse....

DeV.

The person who hasnt acted yet, who you put on the flush draw, doesnt have the J of diamonds. If he had the J of diamonds he would already have the straight, and he doesnt have the straight yet.

If Im mistaken here please tell me.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DapperGent wrote:

Tell me Hector which has better +EV, politeness or rudeness?

It depends.

I thought I was justified in saying this was nonsense;

DeVore wrote:

Originally Posted by DeVore
In short, these kind of questions are mental gymnastics for maths geeks (of which I'm one!) and possibly highlight an interesting facet of Poker but to talk of "right" and "wrong".... maybe online where you dont look into their eyes and read them... but in the real world theres a LOT more going on then the maths and thats something I've had to learn the hard way...

DeV.

Because it seems to miss the point of the exercise entirely, and then make somewhat vague and confusing statements about live vs online poker. I thought it was nonsensical in the context of the discusssion. I didnt mean to appear rude.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DeVore wrote:

I'm not following something here or I'm thinking about this from a weird angle.

You dont know that the Jack is out there. If it IS out there then HE doesnt know that Kd or Ad or Qd coupled with Jsch isnt out there which he has to fear if he doesnt have the high diamond. The question is far from cut and dried.


DeV.

There are only two diamonds on the board, so if somebody has the J of diamonds nobody else can have the straight and the flush draw. One diamond is no good, you need two.

DapperGent

Hectorjelly wrote:

The person who hasnt acted yet, who you put on the flush draw, doesnt have the J of diamonds. If he had the J of diamonds he would already have the straight, and he doesnt have the straight yet.

If Im mistaken here please tell me.

I don't think the wording precludes him having both the made straight and the flush draw. i.e. holding the Jack of diamonds.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

DapperGent wrote:

I don't think the wording precludes him having both the made straight and the flush draw. i.e. holding the Jack of diamonds.

Whilst It doesnt specifically preclude it, the wording implies that you take him for a flush draw only. Its also very unlikely for his flush draw to contain the Jd, so even if you consider this possibility, (which I advise you dont) then you would have to weight its possibility low in any calculations.

Finally, it doesnt make any difference to the actual problem, as he is going to get a chance to raise anyway. The crux of the situation is actually about the first guy, and if we give him a chance to raise with is at least a straight, and possibly a straight and flush draw.

Hectorjelly

Raise the minimum (to $400)

musician wrote:

5/1 Hector will never start a post with "I think the best thing to do here is...."

Ill take that bet