Ireland's Potential 911...an interesting scenario

DublinWriter

Here’s an interesting scenario.

Bush comes to visit Dublin next week. Terrorists hijack plane leaving Dublin airport knowing he will address the Dail at a given time.

Exactly what do we have in this country to stop such an attack, even if it wasn’t in the context of a Bush context?

As much as I respect and admire the professionalism of The Irish Air Corps, they aren’t much of an Air force if they don’t have aeroplanes are they? The 30-year-old Foughra jets they used to use were stood down in 1998 and were never replaced.

The current 4-seater propeller planes they use are only used for training and reconnaissance. I remember Jeremy Clarkson recently trying out a similar ‘plane in a recent TV series of his and saying “The Irish Air Force actually use these as their main weapson!”.

So basically we’re left with an Airforce who’s primary job it is to act as a private Airline to the Government with that little malfunctioning executive jet of theirs and as a free flight school for Ryanair as that is where most Air Corps officers seem to end up these days. Even their helicopter search and rescue operations are being outsourced next year.

Should we invest in our Air Corps and buy some cut-price MiG’s from the Russians?

I suspect we’re in another ‘Iodine Tablet’ situation here.

bizmark

How much would it cost to build a airforce though? 20 million or so a jet then you need parts for them weapons trained poilts maybe a new airbase your talking big money we only spend 700 million (0.9% of gdp) on our armed forces a year so i douth the airforce has the money.

Sparks

We've discussed this to death before. It doesn't matter what the Aer Corps have in terms of hardware, it's not possible to neutralise a hijacked airliner. By the time you realise it's hijacked, it's on top of it's target, and by the time the fighters make it to Dublin from Baldonnell, it's been over for ten minutes already. Even if you have fighters in the air shadowing every civilian airliner, it's still not possible to stop them because by the time you have authority to fire on an airliner, it's over the city and now you're just shooting down a few hundred tonnes of metal shrapnel and aviation fuel onto grafton street.

We also discussed the cost - it comes to the guts of a billion euros by the time you have a single squadron operational and the running costs are also astronomical. It's not just hardware, don't forget, it's armaments, training, manpower, maintainance, facilities, and all the support infrastructure.

Seriously, read some of the past threads on buying fighters for the aer corps.

DublinWriter

Well, FF Minister for the Environment Martin Cullen just flushed €50 million down the toilet on the failed E-Voting project, and don't foget the €15 million McCreevy authorised on the Equestrian Centre in Kildare that was so badly designed that it can't actually hold horse shows.

So far that's €65 million off the top of my head.

State of the art MiG-29K's cost about €25 each.

bizmark

Be better of with some SAM site tbh

DublinWriter

Opps...thats €25million each. If they were €25 they you'd see them being sold on Moore St....4 for €75 luv!

Personel costs are not that expensive....we already pay for personel. And as for maintenance costs? Well originally the Aer Corps got 5 Foughras, but the fifth was just used for gutting for spare parts.

I take your point about scrap metal raining down on Grafton St. Screw it! Let it hit Leinster house instead! What was I thinking?

Sparks

Originally posted by DublinWriter
State of the art MiG-29K's cost about €25 each.

€25m surely...

And you'll need several of them - say four operational (which is tiny) and four for training, that's 200 million right there. Now add in maintainance costs, operational costs, armament costs, upgrading of facilities, training costs - and that's before you even get past the hardware!
Then there's the cost of more pilots, training those pilots to fly fast jets, the cost of the trainers (you don't start to learn on a MiG-29), the cost of the extra maintainance personnel, the cost of training them, the cost of the training for the support personnel from ATC through to the emergency personnel on the ground (in case of a crash).

By the time you finish the totting up, you're between 900 and a billion euros down inside the first year alone.

Raskolnikov

Impossible, if a plane was hijacked then radar control would know long before it hit the Dáil and thus inform El Presidento Bush before hand.

We don't need do-nothing fighter planes, we've lived without them for eighty years haven't we?

Sparks

Originally posted by Raskolnikov
Impossible, if a plane was hijacked then radar control would know long before it hit the Dáil and thus inform El Presidento Bush before hand.

The approach path to Dublin Airport runs across Dublin Bay. Hijack the aircraft there and turn towards Leinster House and go to full throttle. You're now about five to six miles from your target and travelling at four to five hundred miles per hour. By the time that ATC knows that you actually are offcourse and it's not an equipment glitch, a minute or two is gone by. It's not very likely that that information can get from the ATC controller to Leinster house before the aircraft.

DublinWriter

Nope, we've lived without them for 8 years, read my original post.

Sparks

Like I said, we discussed this already:

Does Ireland need a modern fighter Squadron?

At long, long last

How many jet planes does a government need?

DublinWriter

"This is Dublin ATC, we have several hijacked airliners heading for Leinster House with transponders turned off"

"Hello.......Leinster House, what department or office?"

"This is Dublin ATC, we have several hijacked airliners heading for Leinster House"

"ATC? Whats that? Who's this?"

"Evacuate immediately"

"Caller - All prank calls will be reported to An Garda Siochàna"

*click*

*BANG*

____________________________________________________

Yes, you're all right, I admit the error of my ways, let 'em burn!

mr_angry

The skies around Dublin will be crawling with American fighter aircraft for Bush's visit anyway, and I assume there would be a similar arrangement for any other high-profile dignitary who comes to Ireland. I'm sure there's some argument for not giving the Americans the authority to fire on a civilian aircraft on Irish territory, but lets face it - its far more secure, and in ordinary circumstances, it means we don't have to shell out for it. Job done, expense saved, end of story.

bizmark

But we dont need fighters honestly sparks is right your talking at lest a billion for a tiny force of them we would have to more than double the budget of the army for 4 working fighters does that make sence to anyone?

I say if your looking for airdefence get a few sam sites there more than likely a lot cheaper (but i cant be sure)

Raskolnikov

Originally posted by Sparks
The approach path to Dublin Airport runs across Dublin Bay. Hijack the aircraft there and turn towards Leinster House and go to full throttle. You're now about five to six miles from your target and travelling at four to five hundred miles per hour. By the time that ATC knows that you actually are offcourse and it's not an equipment glitch, a minute or two is gone by. It's not very likely that that information can get from the ATC controller to Leinster house before the aircraft.

That raises the question though, even if we had the most super duper fighters, would we be able to scramble them? Although I'm sure we could have them on patrol . .

Fair enough, how about a no-fly zone over the area around Leinster House for however long Bush has to shamooze Bertie? There are a million ways we can insure the safety of Bush without wasting taxpayer money on planes.

Sparks

Originally posted by Raskolnikov
That raises the question though, even if we had the most super duper fighters, would we be able to scramble them? Although I'm sure we could have them on patrol . .

Scramble them? No. Even with pilots in the seats and engines running, it'd take three to five minutes to get from a standing start on the runway at baldonnell to over the city centre, even on full afterburner. By that point, the damage is more than likely done.

Fair enough, how about a no-fly zone over the area around Leinster House for however long Bush has to shamooze Bertie?

That approach over the sea is the final approach to landing though. You'd effectively have to shut down Dublin Airport and declare the entirity of Irish airspace offlimits for the duration and I'm not sure you can do that legally as there's a major international airline route that runs over us in that area.

There are a million ways we can insure the safety of Bush without wasting taxpayer money on planes.

"Dear George,
Please don't show up,
Love Bertie"
Would appear to be the cheapest way...


But alternatively, you could increase security at airports. Of course, then there are the airlines flying into Ireland from abroad that you can't cover that way.


And in all this discussion, no-one's mentioned driving through the gates of leinster house with a Hiace van packed with fertiliser and a timer detonator...

PiE

There'll be mega-strict measures put in place for Bush's visit. They'll probably have the pilots on each incoming and outgoing flight report into ATC every minute saying "Everything's hunkydory!". If and when that message doesn't come in, they'll immediately take notice and warn Bush's security cronies.

They'll probably have hundreds of secret service in Dublin airport too, checking every passenger on the way out and the records of everyone coming in.

As much as I'd like to see Bush get hurt, it's not gonna happen here.

Raskolnikov

Originally posted by Sparks
Scramble them? No. Even with pilots in the seats and engines running, it'd take three to five minutes to get from a standing start on the runway at baldonnell to over the city centre, even on full afterburner. By that point, the damage is more than likely done.

Sorry, you'll have to excuse my use of military lingo, that's what I meant.

Originally posted by Sparks

"Dear George,
Please don't show up,
Love Bertie"
Would appear to be the cheapest way...

Suits me!

Originally posted by Sparks

And in all this discussion, no-one's mentioned driving through the gates of leinster house with a Hiace van packed with fertiliser and a timer detonator...

That's a far more feasible plot than a plane being hijacked. Perhaps snipers in certain locations could assasinate the president. The government would certainly look stupid if it spent hundreds of millions on planes only to have him shot or blown up from the ground.

arcadegame2004

Well I think we should at least have passable anti-aircraft weaponry to try to shoot down such an aircraft heading for say the Dail or the International Financial Services Centre. I mean do we consider ourselves and our lives to be so worthless as to be not worth defending from physical harm? People here complain about the cost, but what is the price of life?

Sparks

Originally posted by arcadegame2004
People here complain about the cost, but what is the price of life?

We could well ask you the same question. Why push so hard for these awfully sexy measures like fighter squadrons and SAM sites, which don't forget, just kill the hundred or so people on the airliner as well as anyone underneath when it falls down onto the city as a few hundred tonnes of jagged metal debris and burning jet fuel? Why not just invest a fraction of that money into airport security measures?

jackofalltrades

Think I'll have to agree with Spraks on this one, even with a system like NORAD has by the time you would realise that a plane had been hijacked it would have already been able to have crashed into its supposed target, considering that Dublin airport is right beside the city.

I suppose you just have to bank on the fact that the degree of precision that it would take to hit Leinster House with a plane, is so high that a pilot would have to be fairly motivated to go through years of training just for the opportnity of killing himself in a suicide attack. I guessing most people who are smart enough to pass all of those exmas would probably turn to peaceful means to further their supported causes.

gaelic cowboy

No way a terrorist could fly a Jumbo into Leinster House on purpose if Bush was in it it isn't prominent enougha building

gaelic cowboy

I reckon if there ever was god forbid an actual attempt to do something here it would probally be the bomb in a bag left in a pub variety.

halkar

If I was Bush I would be more worried about the Nato summit in Istanbul than EU summit here Turks are putting over 20 000 security personnel for the summit days and most of the roads will be closed around the area where summit will take place. I don't think they will have any birds flying around never mind planes

I am sure we will get some help from UK if we need any air support and as said Bush has his own security arrangements where ever he goes.

I wouldn't like to see money being wasted on Air Forces that we don't really need. After all if the planes are around € 25m I am sure by the time we have them flying they will cost over billions Everything that cost €1 costs €1000 here

gandalf

Why do we always have this thread about fighter planes every couple of months.

The one thing we are all forgetting here is if a plane is hijacked the passengers are not going to sit there and wait to be used as a weapon. I for one would fight tooth and nail with any prospective hijackers and I suspect there would be others two.

The US will have fighter jets in the skys for Bush's visit. I agree with others here the more likely scenario is a massive bomb or a sniper, these terrorists already know that an airliner would be something that the intelligence and security services would be waiting very carefully for. Infact they may decide to punish the people of Ireland (in their sick little minds that is) for allowing Bush here and just bomb somewhere in the country.

As for Fighter planes needed by the Irish Defense forces. The only thing they do is fishery patrols, some recon on the borders and air sea rescue. No need for state of the art planes at all. If any sizeable military force decided to invade they wouldn't be much use at all now would they.

Gandalf.

Gordon

Originally posted by gaelic cowboy
I reckon if there ever was god forbid an actual attempt to do something here it would probally be the bomb in a bag left in a pub variety.

Which pubs are Bush's favourites?

bus77

Originally posted by Gordon
Which pubs are Bush's favourites?

The ones full of drink

oscarBravo

Originally posted by jackofalltrades
I suppose you just have to bank on the fact that the degree of precision that it would take to hit Leinster House with a plane, is so high that a pilot would have to be fairly motivated to go through years of training just for the opportnity of killing himself in a suicide attack. I guessing most people who are smart enough to pass all of those exmas would probably turn to peaceful means to further their supported causes.

Spend a few hours with Microsoft Flight Simulator and tell us if you still think it's that hard. Flying a passenger jet isn't all that difficult. Landing it safely is the hard part.

Originally posted by gaelic cowboy
No way a terrorist could fly a Jumbo into Leinster House on purpose if Bush was in it it isn't prominent enougha building

It's not that hard to spot from the air - it's right beside Merrion Square.

Notwithstanding all of the above, I don't think it's all that likely to happen - and it's certainly not worth investing billions in on the off-chance.

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by arcadegame2004
Well I think we should at least have passable anti-aircraft weaponry to try to shoot down such an aircraft heading for say the Dail or the International Financial Services Centre. I mean do we consider ourselves and our lives to be so worthless as to be not worth defending from physical harm? People here complain about the cost, but what is the price of life?

You're not going to hit an Airliner with any AA weapon and have it disappear in mid air. If you shoot down an aircraft over dublin, where would you want it to come down? Its hundreds of tons of metal and burning fuel and a debris field about a mile wide.

Basically its too late if you have to shoot it down over Dublin. The money would be better spent on the health service saving lives.

bus77

They dont want to kill Bush, that would imply they could beat the Americans by choping off it's leaders head. The messege they want to convey to the World/Muslims/Arab States is that it's a war against all Americans on Arab soil.(a never ending war is what ther hopeing for) Killing Bush would break the momentum of the s hit there trying to stir up.

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by bus77
They dont want to kill Bush, that would imply they could beat the Americans by choping off it's leaders head. The messege they want to convey to the World/Muslims/Arab States is that it's a war against all Americans on Arab soil.(a never ending war is what ther hopeing for) Killing Bush would break the momentum of the s hit there trying to stir up.

I'm sure that they very much would like to kill bush or indeed any major US official.

Hobbes

There would be much easier ways. Try pointing a plane at a landmark that is tiny. With the towers they kind of stood out, and during 9/11 they couldn't find the whitehouse so they hit the pentagon instead.

The terrorists would have to set off some kind of fire to give a marker.

Also boston airport security was insanely poor around that time. Heck you could get onto an airplane without even having a ticket. It was that easy at that time.

Btw a few weeks ago when the warship was in harbour they went to red alert when a cessna flew over dublin. The US were ready to shoot that down. It wouldn't surprise me if the US brought the arms to deal with the situation.

bus77

Originally posted by RicardoSmith
I'm sure that they very much would like to kill bush or indeed any major US official.

Like to kill and mounting a big operation like a plane hyjacking are too very differnt things.
It's not just about murder/death/kill with these people.
Yes the attacks on the US and Spain were designed to kill but there was also symbolic value attached to each of them. It the US it was to act as a rallying call to other Muslims by hitting the biggest physical sign (other than aircraft carriers) of American power, in Spain it was a messege to collaborators and to the world that America cant protect her allies.

It would'nt suprise me if they launched an attack on a country he was visiting, but not at Bush himself.

Sand

a pilot would have to be fairly motivated to go through years of training just for the opportnity of killing himself in a suicide attack. I guessing most people who are smart enough to pass all of those exmas would probably turn to peaceful means to further their supported causes.

Heh - had to laugh

bus77

Sorry but I have to ask, I see the name DublinWriter and then I see this..

Originally posted by DublinWriter
Here’s an interesting scenario.

Bush comes to visit Dublin next week. Terrorists hijack plane leaving Dublin airport knowing he will address the Dail at a given time.

Your not looking for material for a book from here are you?

BlitzKrieg

...*sigh*



worse thing to happen because of 9/11 (apart from loss of human life of course) is the belief that terrorists can only attack by stealing jumbo jets and crashing them.


So lets spend loads of money on jets to protect us from kamikaze jumbo jets. Meanwhile a little brown parcel slips into leincster house (prob cause of underpaid security :rolleyes: ) and kills both bertie and bush in an explosion.



I remind everyone that before al quieda the two most effective terrorist movements never hijacked planes...


security is balanced. enforce it on the ground at the airport etc.


also if your being that paranoid about planes how about flights from around the world heading to dublin? Couldnt they pick one up at london stansted or istanbul etc etc. let it fly its course then take over in the last minutes and aim down?


finally. Bin ladin would much perfer an *Attempt* on Bush's life rather then to kill him because Buish being the ever idiot would prob reply with emergancy powers and the invasion of another 2 middle eastern countries...

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by bus77
They dont want to kill Bush...

Well either they do or they don't. Make your mind up.

I don't how the effort required to kill a US president is less than the effort required to hijack a plane. I would have thought it would take an even bigger effort. Airplanes were used because they were a "soft"target at that time.

I don't think the message attacking Spain was that US can't protect their allies. But that if you aligned yourself with the US you would then become a target. But in fact anyone is a target in actual fact, so its a bit of a woolly message. IMO.

jackofalltrades

Spend a few hours with Microsoft Flight Simulator and tell us if you still think it's that hard. Flying a passenger jet isn't all that difficult. Landing it safely is the hard part.

I've actually played MS Flight Sim quite a bit over the last few years. Anything to do with the ground (landing on it or hitting it, as the case may be) is quite hard. I've talked to pilots how have said that while it is a good simulation it still lacks the ability to accurately mimic a flying a real plane. The feedback that you would get from a joystick or a yoke would not be enough to train you for the precision need to stirke a plane at high speed into a relatively small area.

bus77

Originally posted by RicardoSmith
Well either they do or they don't. Make your mind up.

I have "made my mind up" Al Queda(I asume thats who were talking about) do not want to kill Bush. They are absolutly delighted with the way he's done things so far and would'nt want that to stop.

And there's another option regarding plane attacks. Take a pilots family hostage. The ra did that up in the north with truck drivers and got them to drive into british army barracks with bomb laden trucks. Ive never heard of it being done with a pilot before though.

No sort of security messures would protect from it anyway and those new security doors they put in pilots cabins would certainly make sure the pasangers couldnt get at him.

chewy

whats all this about the dail dublin writer he's not going to the dail

oscarBravo

Originally posted by jackofalltrades
I've actually played MS Flight Sim quite a bit over the last few years. Anything to do with the ground (landing on it or hitting it, as the case may be) is quite hard.

I've never found hitting the ground to be difficult in any flight simulator (or in a real plane for that matter)

I've talked to pilots how have said that while it is a good simulation it still lacks the ability to accurately mimic a flying a real plane.

I'm not suggesting that you can learn to be a successful suicide pilot using MSFS alone; just that it's not as difficult to crash a plane as it is to land it.

The feedback that you would get from a joystick or a yoke would not be enough to train you for the precision need to stirke a plane at high speed into a relatively small area.

How fast do you suppose a passenger jet needs to be going to inflict serious damage on a building?

The Beer Baron

Right so I'm too lazy to read the whole post but...

Well we do have an airforce, it's called the RAF, same AF that patrolled our skies post 911 to guard against a simular attack against Sellafield and the like.

Embarrasing of course.

Afaik there's gonna be a few planes circling the skies during JR Bush's visit, F-22's or whatever, they'll be up in the air whilst he's travelling- I also heard they'll have helicopters, Ireland ain't that big, considering the range of missiles by either helicopters (eg an Apache) or a jet fighter and the target aquisition range thereof...

DublinWriter

Noooo...I'm not looking for material for a book, but I could just imagine something along those awful, and mostly ghostwritten, Tom Clancy novels.

It's funny how an awful lot of people said in this thread that hitting a specific object on the ground is hard to do at speed in a commercial jet airliner. I've been reading some of the conspiracy-theroists stuff on 911 and they basically say that while hitting the twin towers was relatively easy, hitting the Pentagon, which is basically a five-story building is next to impossible, even for an experenied pilot. The lack of recogisable airplane parts and small size of the impact hole has made a lot of people suspicious about the whole incident.

As an aside, some of the systems on the F22s are really scary and can detect small arms fire from a few miles up - as happened when they nuked a wedding party outside Baghdad a few weeks ago where its the custom to shoot off a few celebratory rounds with your AK47 after the bride says 'I do'.

...just a warning to any weddiing parties on the Northside!

bonkey

Originally posted by DublinWriter
I've been reading some of the conspiracy-theroists stuff on 911 and they basically say that while hitting the twin towers was relatively easy, hitting the Pentagon, which is basically a five-story building is next to impossible, even for an experenied pilot.

Have you checked how much area the Pentagon actually covers on the ground? The pilot may have been lucky in hitting an outside wall, but missing the entire Pentagon would take some doing.

jc

bonkey

As a matter of interest....sparked by a comment from gandalf.....

Have any commercial flights been hijacked since the September 11 ones?

jc

DublinWriter

No, but about three weeks after 911 I was flying back to Brussles where I worked at the time, with Ryanair.

I had an outside aisle seat. About halfway through the flight I noticed the hostess open the pilot's cabin, enter, and chat away to the pilots for about 5 mintues, all the time with the cabin door wide open.

Now 5 minutes is acutally a long time! Sit looking at your watch for 5 minutes and you'll see what I mean.

I remember being really shocked at how lax they were, and their typical Oirish 'ah shure' approach to security.

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by DublinWriter
.....

As an aside, some of the systems on the F22s are really scary and can detect small arms fire from a few miles up - as happened when they nuked a wedding party outside Baghdad a few weeks ago where its the custom to shoot off a few celebratory rounds with your AK47 after the bride says 'I do'.

...just a warning to any weddiing parties on the Northside!

Its amazing since none of them are in Iraq.

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by The Beer Baron
Right so I'm too lazy to read the whole post but...

Well we do have an airforce, it's called the RAF, same AF that patrolled our skies post 911 to guard against a simular attack against Sellafield and the like.

Embarrasing of course.

Afaik there's gonna be a few planes circling the skies during JR Bush's visit, F-22's or whatever, they'll be up in the air whilst he's travelling- I also heard they'll have helicopters, Ireland ain't that big, considering the range of missiles by either helicopters (eg an Apache) or a jet fighter and the target aquisition range thereof...

Using Helicopters is a ridiculous suggestion. There is no such thing as AIRWOLF.

If you had read the post you'd realise that theres no air weapon that could make hundreds of tons of airline vanish mid air. (unless you're still thinking of Airwolf) So what you are suggesting is making an Airliner crash uncontrolled into the Dublin City, which would rain destruction on about a half mile to a mile of the city.

While I have no doubt that they probably will be air patrols by UK aircraft, probably Tornados or F15's from the UK, or even our own in their new shiny trainers, theres very little they could do about an aircraft doing 200-300mph 5 miles from the city center. It would cover that in about 2 mins.

Aircover would just be a placebo for people who don't know any better.

gandalf

Again I think this plane hijack fear is now baseless. Do you really think after Sepetember 11th that people will sit on an airliner thats just been hijacked and do nothing. They won't they will now fight.

These murderers will find another way to kill people like they did in Spain.

RicardoSmith

Originally posted by gandalf
Again I think this plane hijack fear is now baseless. Do you really think after Sepetember 11th that people will sit on an airliner thats just been hijacked and do nothing. They won't they will now fight.

These murderers will find another way to kill people like they did in Spain.

I wouldn't say baseless. I'd say greatly reduced. Its also a lot harder to get into the flight deck now. Also there are a few airliners around the world that are missing. Noone knows where they are. You'd never know where they would turn up.

ZENER

Interesting thread with some excellent theories !! Just one thing for all ye potential terrorists though - I'm pretty sure that Mr Bush will not be arriving at Dublin Airport but at Baldonnel as is usual for these sort of visits.

ZEN