Will the bubble burst?

canavanbn@hotma · 14-07-2005 11:26am #1

Just heard on the radio that inflation has fallen, and this combined with SSIA maturing and news of 100% mortgages..what will this mean for first time buyers?
I'm a young person with a modest income, with around 25,000 saved, just wondering what is likely to happen to prices in the next 12-18 months?
I want to buy a place but I can't do so for personal reasons for the next 12 months, however i'm thinking if prices rise again my current deposit will be half what is needed again..
anyhow what i'm hoping you guys can tell me what is likely to happen over the next twelve months?
..And also the banks will be giving shag all interest now on the deposit saved...so what would you guys advise?
Thanks!

canavanbn@hotma · 14-07-2005 11:46am

any takers?

Lord Nikon · 14-07-2005 12:16pm

I recon that if loads of FTB's can afford houses, house prices will go up.
AS for your 25k saved up, put it into RaboDirect saving account, their giving 3% interest a year.

Bluehair · 14-07-2005 2:13pm

You may want to buy but do you have to buy?

You've demonstrated considerable finanical acumen by saving 25k and I commend that. Don't cripple yourself with debt just to 'get on the ladder'.

Imho property will decline significantly over the next few years(and for some time after that). I'm convinced of it and have just sold my own property as a result. I'm happily renting for the next few years before buying again or possibly leaving Ireland altogether.

At the very worst you've missed the boom years so bear in mind if you buy now you're going to be there for some time.

You're young, enjoy it. Travel the world, do new things, develop or find your ideal career. Property will always be around it's just that the Irish have become obsessed with it over the last few years.

TheLedge · 14-07-2005 2:38pm

Bluehair wrote:

You may want to buy but do you have to buy?

You've demonstrated considerable finanical acumen by saving 25k and I commend that. Don't cripple yourself with debt just to 'get on the ladder'.

Imho property will decline significantly over the next few years(and for some time after that). I'm convinced of it and have just sold my own property as a result. I'm happily renting for the next few years before buying again or possibly leaving Ireland altogether.

At the very worst you've missed the boom years so bear in mind if you buy now you're going to be there for some time.

You're young, enjoy it. Travel the world, do new things, develop or find your ideal career. Property will always be around it's just that the Irish have become obsessed with it over the last few years.

This is good advice. I'm doing exactly this. I could buy in Ireland now if I wanted, but it's ridiculously overvalued. Most sane people realise this and are either in the midst of selling their investment properties or planning on doing so in the next year. Keep calm, unless you actually NEED to buy a home, in which case, I'd go for it.

MorningStar · 14-07-2005 2:59pm

I think the fact many FTB have saved SSIAs as have their parents (who plan to give it to their children). Means the house prices are going to go up next year for sure. Some will jump the gun by getting the 100% mortgage and buying now before the percieved future house price jump. I think that means house prices will rise steadily for the remainder of this year and all of next year and the year after as all the SSIA mature at different times.
I know that there are a pile of tradesmen from england planning to come over here for two years because they believe their will be so much work.

It's all speculation either way but I think with the amount of money coming into the market and the irish obsession with home ownership you can be sure that there will be an effect.

is your €25k from SSIA?

Hornet · 20-07-2005 4:38pm

In my opinion it is irrelevant how the house prices behave in the next 12 months or even in the next, let's say, 4 years for that matter IF you have a property. If you don't every day/week/month counts.

My prediction is that the house prices will continue to rise. Not necessarily by the same percentage as in previous years, but it will go up. Should there be a "crash", "bursting bubble" or normalisation of prices, it will only be a temporary drop/flat-lining.

I know from areas in other European countries where British and Irish investors did not leave their stamp that the property prices stayed stagnant or even dropped a bit for the last 10 years. However, they are locations where the demand can be more than satisfied and where the attitude towards investing, but as well towards changing your house every few years is completely different than in Ireland.

Personally I would still buy IF I could make sure that even a significant increase in mortgage interest rate wouldn't force me to sell in the next 10 years.

Again personally, I think TheLedge and Bluehair have done the wrong thing. BUT, it is important to note that any investment is a personal decision and only YOU can decide if you are happy/willing/prepared to take a certain risk, so both have done the right thing as far as they are concerned.

The advise regarding RaboBank is a good one, by the way, if you don't plan to use the money in the short term.

--Hornet

MorningStar · 20-07-2005 6:30pm

Hornet you should check out the thread about 100% mortgages. It is basically about a bubble burst too.
I think you have made some valid points and have been more calm tempered than me on the subject.

SkepticOne · 21-07-2005 7:18am

I think there will be high growth next year due to SSIAs maturing and 100% mortgages. A lot more people will be chasing after desirable housing.

A lot doesn't make total sense to me though. Why with mortgage lending expanding at 25% a year has there been comparitively low growth in the last 5 months (1.8%)? Could this be because non-mortgaged holders of property have been getting out? Or is it because supply is increasing at a great rate?

I would be interested in the views of experienced property people on this?

Gateway · 15-05-2006 1:22pm

Bluehair wrote:

You may want to buy but do you have to buy?

You've demonstrated considerable finanical acumen by saving 25k and I commend that. Don't cripple yourself with debt just to 'get on the ladder'.

Imho property will decline significantly over the next few years(and for some time after that). I'm convinced of it and have just sold my own property as a result. I'm happily renting for the next few years before buying again or possibly leaving Ireland altogether.

At the very worst you've missed the boom years so bear in mind if you buy now you're going to be there for some time.

You're young, enjoy it. Travel the world, do new things, develop or find your ideal career. Property will always be around it's just that the Irish have become obsessed with it over the last few years.

LOL!

FillSpectre · 15-05-2006 1:43pm

Gateway wrote:

LOL!

Maybe we should PM Blue hair and ask how they did in the property maket when the sold up. Strangely recent threads started by him suggest he owns a house but their profile says they are a student also. Could they be lying? I have never heard of such behaviour on an internet forum.:D

I would wonder what motive somebody would have to try and talk people out of buying by saying they sold their own house? Very strange behaviour Iguess they could have changed their mind

aniascor · 15-05-2006 2:34pm

No one here is going to be able to give you firm assurances that the bubble won't burst the minute you buy a place. Likewise no one can guarantee that if you wait it out the prices will ever come down to a level that you consider affordable. After all, if you wait a few years and if prices start dropping and the price of a house drops to a level you can afford again, are you actually going to buy in a market where if you wait another little while, the price might have dropped even more? Or will you end up trying to play the market by waiting until prices start increasing again?

You need to assess your own needs and decide whether buying a house is the right thing for you to do. If you are currently renting and you would like to own your own place, and are planning on living there for a decent amount of time (several years at least), then buying is probably a good thing to do. Even if prices do drop, well over the course of five years, you might have paid up to 25,000 in rent anyway (or more depending on where you live).

If you want to buy a house because you are looking to make money quickly, but you can't afford to keep the house if the price drops, or you will be forced to sell if interest rates go up, then it probably isn't a good idea.

In the end, the only one who can say for certain whether buying a house is the right approach for you to take is yourself.

If you decide the wait (you said you can't buy for the next 12-18 months), then go talk to your bank manager and see what type of investment products they offer. Or go the RaboDirect route and earn 3% interest on your savings (just don't forget you have to pay DIRT tax on the interest earned).

Bluehair · 15-05-2006 5:23pm

:rolleyes: Sheesh some people have little to be doing eh?

For what it's worth i went sale agreed on my home last year roughly around September. Cleared about €200k in profit and am now in college full time and debt free without a care in the world.

Inflation on the up, interest rates are continuing steadily upwards, consumer debt in Ireland grows by leaps and bounds. The economy is predominantly reliant on a construction industry that even the most bearish of punits admit is due for a 'soft landing'. The dollar is weakening with the implications that has for US multinationals here, the yuan has dropped below 8 to the dollar for the first time ever.

Frankly i sleep easy knowing i made the right decision.

"I'm happily renting for the next few years before buying again or possibly leaving Ireland altogether." Thats what i said and i stand by it. For a huge number of other reasons the likelyhood is we'll be heading off abroad in a few years since this country is slowly going down the toliet altogeter.

Imho property will decline significantly over the next few years(and for some time after that). It's early days yet given i specifically said a few years. None-the-less i stand by that statement too. Anyone who understands a little history and the most basic economics knows that the Irish 'situation' is no different than any other and the fundementals simply do not support property prices at current levels. Doesn't stop people buying though and never did before in any other bubble.

aniascor · 15-05-2006 5:55pm

Bluehair wrote:

For what it's worth i went sale agreed on my home last year roughly around September. Cleared about €200k in profit and am now in college full time and debt free without a care in the world.

Well done!

Lots of people talk about how much money there is/was to be made in property but they forget that you actually have to sell the property in order to make money from it - otherwise it's all just figures on paper.

I think a lot of people underestimate the freedom being debt-free gives you. So many people get in the habit of always borrowing for what they want, they forget that you can actually save for something.

No wonder you are carefree - enjoy college!

Lex Luthor · 15-05-2006 6:16pm

aniascor wrote:

Well done!
Lots of people talk about how much money there is/was to be made in property but they forget that you actually have to sell the property in order to make money from it - otherwise it's all just figures on paper.

I think a lot of people underestimate the freedom being debt-free gives you. So many people get in the habit of always borrowing for what they want, they forget that you can actually save for something.

No wonder you are carefree - enjoy college!

ya, but by the time he wants to get back into the market again...property will have increased and he'll probably wished he never sold. Plus there is that added cost of stamp duty.

Bubble bursting my ar$e in the next year or 2. No chance. As long as there is a demand for housing, prices will continue to rise. Interest rate hikes will only slow down that rise, but they will still rise.

You just have to look at the lines around the block for new housing developments to know there is still a huge demand for property and it still is not being fulfilled.

Bluehair · 15-05-2006 6:28pm

aniascor wrote:

No wonder you are carefree - enjoy college!

I am, it's great!

I've got to admit it's sheer joy not to have to worry about money. All around me my peers and friends are remortgaging to clear off debts and then running the credit cards/overdrafts/hp up to the hilt again. Crazy...

No offence Lex but it's that kind of emotional response that's part of what's keeping the bubble going. The simple facts are that the fundementals do not support current house prices never mind continuing rises.

Even in the last couple of months there's cracks appearing in the predominantly bullish Irish media as articles are gradually admiting that getting into buy-to-let today just isn't a good investment.

I've no intention getting into 35-year mortgages when rates are rising in order to, fingers crossed, cash in on a hopefully rising property market and trade up to something i really want in a few years.

Nothing wrong with renting, we seem to have forgotton that. Plenty of time to buy and settle down years from now.

Beta2 · 15-05-2006 7:14pm

Bluehair wrote:

For what it's worth i went sale agreed on my home last year roughly around September. Cleared about €200k in profit and am now in college full time and debt free without a care in the world.

Congratulations.

I've been saying this to family members recently, many have buy-to-let "investments" but are starting to see longer vacancy times, lower or static rental prices, with interest rates up .5% in approx the last six months and going up another .5% soon, it won't be long until rent doesn't cover mortgage.

House prices are growing faster than they have in years, people are panic buying, afraid if they don't buy now they'll never be able to afford to buy.

Its time to cash-in and take your profits.

Bluehair enjoy your cash, it'll be King in a year or two.

faceman · 15-05-2006 7:34pm

Some interesting arguments in these threads but as a "wise financial guru" and also someone with a vested interest due to my homeowner/investor status here's my tupence (bare in mind im a dub speaking about property in dublin only):

Bluehair, nice money you made happy days. However I would say you made a premaure mistake even if you are considering moving abroad. Why did you sell last year and not wait until even this year when SSIA's were being paid out when it was very obvious to the market that prices would continue to rise? (see growth rate for first Q of this year.) What prompted you to sell specifically last year? Did you buy your property in dublin? Why didnt you chose to even lease your property out for a year or sumthin?

No one can predict the future but take these factors into consideration:
- So far the interest rate increases have had NO effect on demand - check the statistics freely available on the web. Altho rates may increase we will NEVER see the days of high interest rates again due to stricter economic policies of the EU. Note im not saying it will never effect demand but considering that number of increases so far have had zero effect, there is still a cushion there.

- Ireland is a small country were the MAIN CBD (central business district) is Dublin. Land in dublin and suburbs is scare and ppl generally will want to live as close as possible to were they work. Drogheda and even dundalk are starting to become satelite towns of dublin.

- SSIA's - as someone pointed will continue to be paid out for next 2 years which will fuel demand. Fact.

- Competitive Mortage Products. All lenders want in on the action. Defaulting on mortgages is low and after all it is a secured loan against your property. We are seeing 100% mortgages and more recently interest only mortgages.

- Growth rates: in the event growrth slows i expect short to medium term it will only slow the growth rate. Its highly unlikely within the next 4-5 years we will see a point where prices decrease.

- Immigration: We are now starting to see our early immigrants of past few years in a position to apply for a mortgage as they have built up a credit history in ireland. The census results will be interesting in show how many non nationals we have living in ireland now. Remember immigration is not in decline and far exceeds emmigration

Anyway thats my piece. Im only giving my opinion not giving sound financial advise so dont sue me if things go belly up for you!

Oh yeah someone mentioned saving with rabobank? i understand AIB now have a savings account with a 5% return.

Lex Luthor · 15-05-2006 8:01pm

Beta2 wrote:

I've been saying this to family members recently, many have buy-to-let "investments" but are starting to see longer vacancy times, lower or static rental prices, with interest rates up .5% in approx the last six months and going up another .5% soon, it won't be long until rent doesn't cover mortgage.

Even if rents don't cover the mortgage, its still a good investment to a point.
I'm not going to say any more on this though as I got hammered in another thread for even suggesting it.

Beta2 · 15-05-2006 8:12pm

Lex Luthor wrote:

Even if rents don't cover the mortgage, its still a good investment to a point.
I'm not going to say any more on this though as I got hammered in another thread for even suggesting it.

If a house is a home and a person is happy to live there, then its a good investment.

House prices rise and fall in value, take London in the late 80's. My parents bought a house for 83K and watched it grow in value to 120K (a lot of sterling back then) in little over 2 years, then prices collapsed and 6 months later it was worth 69K. Today that house is worth 500+K so no matter where you got in on the cycle it would still have been a good long term investment.

faceman · 15-05-2006 8:20pm

Beta2 wrote:

If a house is a home and a person is happy to live there, then its a good investment.

House prices rise and fall in value, take London in the late 80's. My parents bought a house for 83K and watched it grow in value to 120K (a lot of sterling back then) in little over 2 years, then prices collapsed and 6 months later it was worth 69K. Today that house is worth 500+K so no matter where you got in on the cycle it would still have been a good long term investment.

Very good point re house is a home.

Regarding the slump in the 80's that was due to dear maggie in the uk not managing economy correctly... God bless her!

dochasach · 16-05-2006 12:44am

I'm with Bluehair, Beta2 and TheLedge. I'm a former homeowner, happy renter with zero debt and cash earning a sure and steady interest rate while I relax with freedom and 2.5 times the house of the mortgage borrower. While interest rates have been increasing monthly payments for "owners", renters have enjoyed steady (Dublin) or falling rents as a result of an oversupply of "investment property." Search google trends for "investment property" and you will find that Dublin is more obsessed with investment property than any other city in the world and Ireland is more obsessed with investment property than any other country in the world.

My advice, Don't panic! Don't assume that you must buy now or forever miss "the ladder." The past few years are an exception, mortgage debt is not always a one way ticket to free wealth. One study in Amsterdam (a city with limited land, an economic focal point...) showed that in the 350 years since tulip boom, property only beat inflation by 0.2%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=asawSY.nwq5Y&refer=europe

faceman wrote:

...
No one can predict the future but take these factors into consideration:
- So far the interest rate increases have had NO effect on demand - check the statistics freely available on the web.

I'd like to see these stats, if they are valid and not baked by those with a vested interest in continued property hyperinflation, they should become interesting over the next few months as rates continue to rise. Are late payment and foreclosure stats publically available?

Altho rates may increase we will NEVER see the days of high interest rates again due to stricter economic policies of the EU.

But if Ireland has an economic slump and Germany is on the mend, interest rates are going up and there isn't a thing Bertie could do about it. I don't know if you'll see 10% anymore, but people are taking out ARMs which would break them if central bank rates even rise to 5%, which is not only possible, it's likely.

...
- Ireland is a small country were the MAIN CBD (central business district) is Dublin. Land in dublin and suburbs is scare and ppl generally will want to live as close as possible to were they work. Drogheda and even dundalk are starting to become satelite towns of dublin.

- SSIA's - as someone pointed will continue to be paid out for next 2 years which will fuel demand. Fact.

According to this survey, only about 1.2 billion is planned to be spent on new property.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0512/ssia.html
Isn't that only a few hundred euro per person? Hardly enought to make a dent in the average semi price.

- Competitive Mortage Products. All lenders want in on the action. Defaulting on mortgages is low and after all it is a secured loan against your property. We are seeing 100% mortgages and more recently interest only mortgages.

When mortgage lenders feel they must offer such products and borrowers feel they have to take them, it's a sure sign that both lenders and borrowers are backed against the wall by insane property valuations. To me this is one of the surest signs that the end is near.

- Growth rates: in the event growrth slows i expect short to medium term it will only slow the growth rate. Its highly unlikely within the next 4-5 years we will see a point where prices decrease.

But then, nobody knows what happens when the worlds largest economy experiences stagflation, the dollar drops and Irish companies can no longer compete.

- Immigration: We are now starting to see our early immigrants of past few years in a position to apply for a mortgage as they have built up a credit history in ireland. The census results will be interesting in show how many non nationals we have living in ireland now. Remember immigration is not in decline and far exceeds emmigration

Not all of us non-nationals think it's a good idea to risk a negative equity "anchor" in a country where failte has become conditional on potential for exploitation.

Anyway thats my piece. Im only giving my opinion not giving sound financial advise so dont sue me if things go belly up for you!

Oh yeah someone mentioned saving with rabobank? i understand AIB now have a savings account with a 5% return.

I'm with you here, ditto!

PoolDude · 16-05-2006 7:50am

Dan McLaughlin was on the radio talking about this and he like many others is suggesting that what will be seen is a decrease from the 15% increase in house prices projected this year to 2% next year.

This still means a significant increase for the rest of this year and even then when interest rates have gone up 1% in 12 months and 1.5% by next spring the house prices are still going to ncrease by 2% per annum.

So, my opinion if you are buying to get on the ladder, the sooner the better you buy but if you are investing there may be better sources in the medium term. Just my 0.02c

Lex Luthor · 16-05-2006 7:58am

PoolDude wrote:

Dan McLaughlin was on the radio talking about this and he like many others is suggesting that what will be seen is a decrease from the 15% increase in house prices projected this year to 2% next year.

2% from 15%? I'll wait & see. They expected them only to go up by 6-7% this year and now they are saying 15%.

Beta2 · 16-05-2006 11:10am

faceman wrote:

No one can predict the future but take these factors into consideration:
- So far the interest rate increases have had NO effect on demand - check the statistics freely available on the web. Altho rates may increase we will NEVER see the days of high interest rates again due to stricter economic policies of the EU. Note im not saying it will never effect demand but considering that number of increases so far have had zero effect, there is still a cushion there.

less than 30 years ago the germans had interest rates of over 8%, thats less than the average length of a new mortgage. The ECB suggests rates of 5% to be the norm. Unfortunately people aren't rational when buying a property they get a discounted rate of 1.5 - 2.5% for the first two years, they then assume property prices will rise and their wages will go up so they'll be able to cover 4% in interest. Irresponsible banking is a major problem.

faceman wrote:

- Ireland is a small country were the MAIN CBD (central business district) is Dublin. Land in dublin and suburbs is scare and ppl generally will want to live as close as possible to were they work. Drogheda and even dundalk are starting to become satelite towns of dublin.

Thats quite simply wrong. We have half the population density of the EU average. In terms of world population densitys we're in the bottom half. We have one of the lowest population densities in Europe Link

faceman wrote:

- SSIA's - as someone pointed will continue to be paid out for next 2 years which will fuel demand. Fact.

I agree to you with a large extent but many people have already jumped the gun and taken out 100% interest only mortgages, with the anticipation that the price of the property will rise in 2 years and they can then use their SSIA as a deposit when it matures. I think that this is the "last man in" theory at play. i.e. the ssia provided people with their last opportunity to get on the ladder, after the SSIA is all gone they'll be fewer FTB's, many poeple who bought a "starter" property will want to move to somewhere they like more but with fewer FTB's this could be hard. ( can someone suggest a link to this theory)

faceman wrote:

- Competitive Mortage Products. All lenders want in on the action. Defaulting on mortgages is low and after all it is a secured loan against your property. We are seeing 100% mortgages and more recently interest only mortgages.

This pratice is wholly irresponsible by the banks, these people will be the first to feel negative equity, even if house prices don't fall, they just slow down to 1 - 2 % or so they will end up owing more than their property is worth!!!

faceman wrote:

- Growth rates: in the event growrth slows i expect short to medium term it will only slow the growth rate. Its highly unlikely within the next 4-5 years we will see a point where prices decrease.

I'm shaking my eight ball, it says the same thing, I hope its right! Here's an interesting chart of London property prices. Contrarian_house_price_chart.gif

faceman wrote:

- Immigration: We are now starting to see our early immigrants of past few years in a position to apply for a mortgage as they have built up a credit history in ireland. The census results will be interesting in show how many non nationals we have living in ireland now. Remember immigration is not in decline and far exceeds emmigration

Have you got any data to back up this claim? From what I've seen most people are here to make money and send it back home to their families and not to buy houses. 20 - 30% of the economy depends on the construction industry, with a slight dip in house prices many construction jobs will be lost, many people will be on the first flight home. When they leave their rented houses will be empty and the owner will either have to drop the rental price or sell up. If they sell up they'll have to drop the price and the vicious circle starts again.

faceman wrote:

Anyway thats my piece. Im only giving my opinion not giving sound financial advise so dont sue me if things go belly up for you!

Very sensible, I'm not expert either its just how I see things (from my biased view). Truth is know one can tell for sure how things will pan out over the next few years.

FillSpectre · 16-05-2006 11:39am

Beta2 wrote:

Thats quite simply wrong. We have half the population density of the EU average. In terms of world population densitys we're in the bottom half. We have one of the lowest population densities in Europe

I think you might be missing the point that I am at least took from density. As Ireland has such a low density and Dublin is very low density too for a city that doesn't mean there is more space just less houses on the same space. Are you going to knock down all the houses that were built in the 70 and 80s to build higher density? They take up space and the amount of space left is limited and restricted. People want to live in houses in Ireland whether you like it or not. The developers are building low density in the majority of cases. Density is gettinng higher but we can't catch up with the low rise building we build. Blame who you like (developers, planners, NIMBYs and buyers) but the fact remains we are not increasing our density enough to keep supply going in Dublin at least hence prices will go up. It does appaer we might have enough 3 bed houses for the actual need but the demand is higher. Look about here the suggestion that somebody should buy what they need is seen as begrudgery not a sensible approach

Your London property price chart doesn't reflect Ireland where home ownership is more important. I have no problems with comparisons but that one doesn't apply to here. Not that we are special just that isn't true here.

There is a lot going on and if selling a house a year ago and then renting is seen as the smart move it should be understood that only suits very few people. If you are setting up your life selling up to cash in id not the best idea. Considering the SSIas coming through I personally think it was a bad idea to sell a year ago on finacial speculation but life is a different story.

Beta2 · 16-05-2006 1:25pm

FillSpectre wrote:

I think you might be missing the point that I am at least took from density. As Ireland has such a low density and Dublin is very low density too for a city that doesn't mean there is more space just less houses on the same space. Are you going to knock down all the houses that were built in the 70 and 80s to build higher density? They take up space and the amount of space left is limited and restricted. People want to live in houses in Ireland whether you like it or not. The developers are building low density in the majority of cases. Density is gettinng higher but we can't catch up with the low rise building we build. Blame who you like (developers, planners, NIMBYs and buyers) but the fact remains we are not increasing our density enough to keep supply going in Dublin at least hence prices will go up. It does appaer we might have enough 3 bed houses for the actual need but the demand is higher. Look about here the suggestion that somebody should buy what they need is seen as begrudgery not a sensible approach

I'm not 100% sure what you're trying to say? If you are talking about spacial strategies and not enough highrises in the center of Dublin then we agree.

FillSpectre wrote:

Your London property price chart doesn't reflect Ireland where home ownership is more important. I have no problems with comparisons but that one doesn't apply to here. Not that we are special just that isn't true here.

I didn't say that it reflected Irelands position, I'm just sure that people who bought at those peaks also expected strong growth to continue.

FillSpectre wrote:

There is a lot going on and if selling a house a year ago and then renting is seen as the smart move it should be understood that only suits very few people. If you are setting up your life selling up to cash in id not the best idea. Considering the SSIas coming through I personally think it was a bad idea to sell a year ago on finacial speculation but life is a different story.

Is hard to pick the optimal time to sell, if there is a steep downturn in prices Bluehair will considered to have been a very smart guy, however if prices continue to rise for the next 5 years then people will consider him an eejit.

Only time will tell. I personally think he's right, but I could be very wrong.

Bluehair · 16-05-2006 7:01pm

Beta2 wrote:

Is hard to pick the optimal time to sell, if there is a steep downturn in prices Bluehair will considered to have been a very smart guy, however if prices continue to rise for the next 5 years then people will consider him an eejit.

Only time will tell. I personally think he's right, but I could be very wrong.

Ah yes good old boards, you can be damn sure someone else will bump this thread over the years to work out which i was

On the density issue i must say though this is the biggest red herring the construction industry ever put out there.

Look at any map of the Dublin area and you'll realise there is abundant land with zero reason for high density other than inflating profits. There is however a severe shortage of serviced and zoned land but that's something that can be changed with the stroke of a pen and the right political will (ain't gonna happen right now).

We've created a viscious circle of coming up with newer and newer methods of allowing ftbs to come on board the pyramid while keeping prices going up. Higher densitys and 35 year or 40 year mortgages are part of that.

My honest analysis is this can only end badly, i wish that weren't so but i've washed my hands of the whole madness and am glad to have done so.

faceman · 16-05-2006 7:47pm

Despite ppl's strong views no one really knows i guess. We cant compare ireland to UK tho for millions of differents reasons (ok maybe a few different reasons) which i cud no longer be a$$ed goin into cos someone will have a counter argument.

Anyway time will tell. Either way, i still think Bluehair sold too early!

Lex Luthor · 16-05-2006 8:39pm

faceman wrote:

Anyway time will tell. Either way, i still think Bluehair sold too early!

Me too, but maybe bluehair needed to move to a different part of the country to go to college...we don't know

FillSpectre · 17-05-2006 7:48am

Bluehair wrote:

Ah yes good old boards, you can be damn sure someone else will bump this thread over the years to work out which i was

Well you have been proved wrong so far that is nobodies fault just the reality.

On the density issue i must say though this is the biggest red herring the construction industry ever put out there.

Bluehair wrote:

Look at any map of the Dublin area and you'll realise there is abundant land with zero reason for high density other than inflating profits. There is however a severe shortage of serviced and zoned land but that's something that can be changed with the stroke of a pen and the right political will (ain't gonna happen right now).

A stroke of a pen doesn't fix sewage capacity. It doesn't make the people living in the area agree to planning. The people who own the land don't sell their land or can't due to building agreements. I know my old school sold houses and the planning was conditional that they could not build on the football pictches without local agrement. People don't want high rise living so why would builders build it? There is no political will becasue of the desire of the public. Their is limited space as a fact the reasons don't matter as they remain.

Bluehair wrote:

My honest analysis is this can only end badly, i wish that weren't so but i've washed my hands of the whole madness and am glad to have done so.

The problem is you have made a decision based on your view there is no way you are going to let anybody challenge that. You jumped out before the peak that is fact. You were wrong one way or the other. It doesn't make it a bad decission just there was better for more money.

Will the bubble burst?

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