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19-02-2020, 17:36   #1
bekker
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Coronavirus supply chain disruption to Irish Economy

Does anyone know if any work is being done at any official level to evaluate the likely impact of on the Irish Economy of the major supply chain disruption from coronavirus in China ?

If you're in Retail, Distribution, Assembly or Manufacturing do you know how vulnerable your Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers are to the escalating supply chain disruption arising from virus impact in China? A 99% finished product is normally unsaleable.

The domino effect is already being felt, switching to alternative countries to supply may not be option, many if not most are dependant on Chinese factories at some Tier n level.

Pharma is one of the major pillars of this economy, how dependant is it on organic chemicals sourced from China ($387.65M - 2018)?

On the indigenous export side how will the forecast drop in Chinese retail demand affect our exports to our 5/6th largest trade partner? How will disruption of EU markets affect a wide range of our exports?
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19-02-2020, 22:58   #2
Darc19
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This query is far too deep for this thread

I wouldn't be overly concerned unless the coronavirus was still helter skeltering along.

It seems to be slowing. It will delay and cause some problems, but these are challenges companies face daily.

Where I work, some packaging materials come from China. We're looking at alternatives, which have a higher cost, but it's short term.

Vietnam and India will be winners on this.
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23-02-2020, 00:12   #3
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darc19 View Post
This query is far too deep for this thread

I wouldn't be overly concerned unless the coronavirus was still helter skeltering along.

It seems to be slowing. It will delay and cause some problems, but these are challenges companies face daily.

Where I work, some packaging materials come from China. We're looking at alternatives, which have a higher cost, but it's short term.

Vietnam and India will be winners on this.
With all due respect, when Jaguar Landrover is sending shipments in suitcases, it is time to worry. I'd predict serious supply chain disruptions into Q2 for manufacturing components.

China is also a major exporter of rare earth materials that go into products such as electric vehicles and cars
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23-02-2020, 18:40   #4
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Originally Posted by ReneeCali View Post
With all due respect, when Jaguar Landrover is sending shipments in suitcases, it is time to worry. I'd predict serious supply chain disruptions into Q2 for manufacturing components.

China is also a major exporter of rare earth materials that go into products such as electric vehicles and cars
I wasn't arguing against your point, more so that this forum will not give answers as it is too serious a topic.

I've moved out of even mid level risk pension funds as this could be catastrophic to the world economy and markets have gone ahead of themselves anyway Imo.

If there is no vaccine in the next few weeks, expect a lot of damage to start showing.

Currently container shipping is not too badly hit. Air freight cost has trebled and there's a backlog so something that took 3-4 days is now taking 12-14 days.

That was the main reason for the Landrover parts being taken in suitcases.
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23-02-2020, 20:51   #5
 
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Yes, I heard that. Net prices to ship cargo from Frankfurt Airport to Shanghai Pudong Airport increased to 2.55 euros per kilogram last week from 0.86 euros/kg a week earlier,
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27-02-2020, 00:14   #6
 
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At this stage the global economy is reliant on a lot of things coming from a small number of suppliers in a small number of countries.

While I dont think "corona virus" is the big one, I do believe there is a good chance that some significant event can cause derail the global economy significantly.
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27-02-2020, 00:21   #7
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The fact the Chinese shut factories directly after the lunar New year has already caused disruptions. I've a container only leaving Xiamen this weekend that was meant to go on the 1st.
Further trade restrictions due to closures and I would get really worried.

Right now we are need to deal with prices going up while production capacity is reduced in China.
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27-02-2020, 00:22   #8
sdanseo
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I work in logistics. It's having a massive impact.

Roadfreight services in Europe not yet affected but we are bracing for it.

Freighter aircraft flying into China with supplies but coming back empty.

Ocean freight from China tumbled to a trickle overnight. I know of one person elsewhere in Dublin leading a team of ocean planners - most of his staff have been seconded to other departments because there's essentially nothing for them to do.

It's going to be unmitigated chaos.
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02-03-2020, 15:21   #9
bekker
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Just how accurate are reports of production restarts in China reaching 60% plus by beginning of March, even allowing for 7 day extension to Spring Festival break this year, this NASA image indicates an alarming lack of activity.

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03-03-2020, 18:39   #10
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The US has the highest death rate from Corona Virus so far, >8 times as high as South Korea. They have tested only 500 people in the US so far, compared with 110,000 people in Korea.

When they test (and make it easty to test) one can remain at home in most cases until better, if the test is positive. Instead of bahaving normally and spreading it to others.

I suspect that the US is trying to sweep the issue under the rug, and insularly pretent it is a largely 'foreign thing'.

The US infection data is fake and understated. By how much, we don't know yet. The issue in Iran is also growing repidly. However, Iran is less important to the global supply chain etc.

5.8 % of declared infected people die in the US -v- 0.7% in South Korea, where there is an efficient medical system. 60% of the S Korea cases came from a single church.

Data to be published regarding CoVID19 is being censored by the White House, by order of the Trump.

The US death rate has increased to 9 of 109 'cases'. Which is an 8.26% fatality rate!

Last edited by Impetus; 03-03-2020 at 21:52. Reason: Updating posting for latest published statistics
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12-03-2020, 00:59   #11
bekker
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An increasing number of passenger flights being cancelled world wide, approx. 50% of all air-freight is carried on passenger flights, any signs that this is being to adversely affect supply chains in specific commercial sectors?
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12-03-2020, 12:39   #12
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Following Leo's announcment this morning, the chaos will really start kicking in now.

It's going to get very rocky so do it to them, before they do it to you!

Good luck everybody!
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