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06-08-2018, 03:02   #1
Stephen15
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What will happen after direct awards expire in 2019?

So as many of the regular visitors to this forum may know that the direct award contracts for DB, BE and IE are up next year which makes for an interesting potential scenario regarding further tendering of the network something which may lead to industrial unrest unless something is sorted out in the meantime.

If there are more direct awards it would alleviate industrial unrest however this could prevent improvements to public transport services such as the integrated 90 minute ticketing proposed under bus connects, certain elements of bus connects, further integration of our transport system crucial now with GAI entering the market as it may mean DB and Go Ahead will be in separate liveries with separate fare structures and operators such as DB, IE and BE will still have a degree of autonomy from the NTA which operators like Transdev and Go-Ahead won't have.

It's also an issue which is coming down the tracks only next year hard and fast but yet the government, The NTA, CIE and even the unions apart from the NBRU when they talk about further privatisation but still don't mention this have been very hush hush about almost as if it's something that they want to avoid as if they do further tender they could be looking at industrial unrest and if they don't they could be looking at potential sanctions from the EU.
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06-08-2018, 04:54   #2
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Best as I can tell, the direct award decision does not factor in the potential for industrial unrest and nor should it.

DB & BE become competitors for the contracts and some they will win and some they won't. For the various companies there will be additional hiring and for others there will be job losses. That's how it works.

As for liveries and fare structures, they will be dictated by the NTA

If anything, I look forward to any potential weakening of the unions that this may cause. Too many of the problems with public transport in Ireland are directly due to their intransigence across a broad spectrum of issues with little logic for it.

Besides, additional industrial unrest only quickens the advent of driverless buses
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06-08-2018, 05:35   #3
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Besides, additional industrial unrest only quickens the advent of driverless buses
It'll be a long time before buses are driving themselves in cities and towns. And a strike in Irish transport will have zero effect on the introduction of autonomous vehicles.
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06-08-2018, 08:55   #4
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My prediction: A two year extension will be issued to the direct awards, giving the NTA and transport industry time to see how the GAI contract and operation is working out. After that, we'll see a chunk of DB routes tendered out. There might also be smaller chunks of BE routes tendered as well.
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06-08-2018, 10:42   #5
Stephen15
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Best as I can tell, the direct award decision does not factor in the potential for industrial unrest and nor should it.

DB & BE become competitors for the contracts and some they will win and some they won't. For the various companies there will be additional hiring and for others there will be job losses. That's how it works.

As for liveries and fare structures, they will be dictated by the NTA

If anything, I look forward to any potential weakening of the unions that this may cause. Too many of the problems with public transport in Ireland are directly due to their intransigence across a broad spectrum of issues with little logic for it.

Besides, additional industrial unrest only quickens the advent of driverless buses
That's all well and good to say until people are left with no other option but to walk to work. Although when Go-Ahead are up and running the effects of a DB/BE will be not as bad as a certain amount of commuters will still be able to get to and from work if they using Go-Ahead services and not DB services.

I'm not sure who decides liveries but DB and BE will still keep farebox revenue if they are given another direct award contract.
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06-08-2018, 10:51   #6
Stephen15
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My prediction: A two year extension will be issued to the direct awards, giving the NTA and transport industry time to see how the GAI contract and operation is working out. After that, we'll see a chunk of DB routes tendered out. There might also be smaller chunks of BE routes tendered as well.
That's what I see happening. I think such as a situation will come into effect when bus connects routes are starting to be implemented.

I think that DB will keep about 60% of the market share and will sell off some their depots to private operators and developers. The other 40% of the market will likely to be tendered out to Go-Ahead who will grown their operations and gain 20% of the market and another private operator who will get another 20% of the market.
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06-08-2018, 13:00   #7
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That's what I see happening. I think such as a situation will come into effect when bus connects routes are starting to be implemented.

I think that DB will keep about 60% of the market share and will sell off some their depots to private operators and developers. The other 40% of the market will likely to be tendered out to Go-Ahead who will grown their operations and gain 20% of the market and another private operator who will get another 20% of the market.
That's quite depressing but I'd hope for it to remain 70% DB. Spines and Locals for DB, orbitals for the rest.
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06-08-2018, 14:04   #8
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If anything, I look forward to any potential weakening of the unions that this may cause.
indeed. we can't have workers being able to get better terms and conditions and being in a good union. my experience on here tells me that some who want the unions weakened would be the first to complain should their terms be degraded.
the good news is there will be no weakening of the transport unions. they will be in most, if not all the companies tendering for any routes.

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Too many of the problems with public transport in Ireland are directly due to their intransigence across a broad spectrum of issues with little logic for it.
none of the problems with public transport in Ireland are directly due to their non-intransigence across a broad spectrum of issues with lots of logic for it, otherwise the unions wouldn't need to do what their members pay them to do. the unions only deal with employment issues. transport improvements are for the companies/government/NTA.

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Besides, additional industrial unrest only quickens the advent of driverless buses
it doesn't. driverless busses will come when they come, which will be the timeframe that they come, no earlier or later.
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06-08-2018, 14:12   #9
end of the road
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That's what I see happening. I think such as a situation will come into effect when bus connects routes are starting to be implemented.

I think that DB will keep about 60% of the market share and will sell off some their depots to private operators and developers. The other 40% of the market will likely to be tendered out to Go-Ahead who will grown their operations and gain 20% of the market and another private operator who will get another 20% of the market.
i can't see db selling any depots tbh. they would be mad to do so if i'm honest.
i'd say a 60 40 or even 70 30 in favour of dublin bus sounds right, however i'm not sure about how the other 30/20% will workout for now. go ahead will have to prove they can do a good job with the 10% they have before they can gain any more i'd imagine.
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06-08-2018, 14:32   #10
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i can't see db selling any depots tbh. they would be mad to do so if i'm honest.
i'd say a 60 40 or even 70 30 in favour of dublin bus sounds right, however i'm not sure about how the other 30/20% will workout for now. go ahead will have to prove they can do a good job with the 10% they have before they can gain any more i'd imagine.
I cant see how they are going to do a better job in the short term. lower payed drivers is not a great place to start.

Can you imagine 5 busses trying to leave Ballymount to be somewhere else on time in the middle of rush hour. They are going nowhere from the get go.
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06-08-2018, 14:32   #11
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My prediction: A two year extension will be issued to the direct awards, giving the NTA and transport industry time to see how the GAI contract and operation is working out..
First thing that jumps to mind is, how long the tender process for the 10% that GAI won took. how many years ?

Secondly, GAI have a proven track record across many countries, the NTA shouldn't be waiting to see how they do here, they've trusted them to this point.

Third. Why would anyone expect another operator to come in for the tender, wasn't the tender qualifying so strict that a lot of companies couldn't bid and those that could baulked at the process.

Finally, it's in the NTAs interest to get that 30% away from DB and smash the stranglehold the union's currently have when calling a strike. If DB strike and 50% of the buses are still on the road along with dart and luas, the Nbru could be left shouting its hypocrisy while going bankrupt paying members strike pay.

I hope it's a swift decision to tender out the routes. By not doing so it only benefits DB instead of the public.
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06-08-2018, 14:36   #12
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I cant see how they are going to do a better job in the short term. lower payed drivers is not a great place to start.

Can you imagine 5 busses trying to leave Ballymount to be somewhere else on time in the middle of rush hour. They are going nowhere from the get go.
Why do you believe buses will be trying to get out of ballymount at rush hour. Buses will be on the road at 5.30am before any type of build up in the area.
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06-08-2018, 14:37   #13
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First thing that jumps to mind is, how long the tender process for the 10% that GAI won took. how many years ?

Secondly, GAI have a proven track record across many countries, the NTA shouldn't be waiting to see how they do here, they've trusted them to this point.

Third. Why would anyone expect another operator to come in for the tender, wasn't the tender qualifying so strict that a lot of companies couldn't bid and those that could baulked at the process.

Finally, it's in the NTAs interest to get that 30% away from DB and smash the stranglehold the union's currently have when calling a strike. If DB strike and 50% of the buses are still on the road along with dart and luas, the Nbru could be left shouting its hypocrisy while going bankrupt paying members strike pay.

I hope it's a swift decision to tender out the routes. By not doing so it only benefits DB instead of the public.
Siptu will be representing GoAhead.

If there is a transport union strike in either company, it will may include all members. I would hope anyway.

Last edited by dashcamdanny; 06-08-2018 at 14:48.
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06-08-2018, 14:42   #14
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Why do you believe buses will be trying to get out of ballymount at rush hour. Buses will be on the road at 5.30am before any type of build up in the area.
Some buses will be out, and they will probably return after 8 or nine hours on the road before they need to return for the day. If you had a bus in Dublin working from morning to night, you would be knee deep in beer tins and rubbish.


There will be constant bus traffic from the depot all through a working day.
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06-08-2018, 14:51   #15
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GAI have a proven track record across many countries, the NTA shouldn't be waiting to see how they do here, they've trusted them to this point.
of course they should be waiting to see how go ahead do. go ahead may have a proven track record but they are still operating in a new environment, so it's important that they are monitored to see how they get on. handing them more contracts when they haven't began operating the first lot yet would be ridiculous.

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Finally, it's in the NTAs interest to get that 30% away from DB and smash the stranglehold the union's currently have when calling a strike. If DB strike and 50% of the buses are still on the road along with dart and luas, the Nbru could be left shouting its hypocrisy while going bankrupt paying members strike pay.
the stranglehold the unions currently have can't and won't be smashed. moving 30% or whatever amount of routes away from dublin bus to another company does not prevent a full strike. the NBRU are going nowhere.

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I hope it's a swift decision to tender out the routes. By not doing so it only benefits DB instead of the public.
tendering the routes doesn't benefit the public in this case as the NTA decides everything and the operator simply does what it is contracted to do.
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