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27-12-2015, 21:57   #1
JCX BXC
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STORM FRANK, Tuesday 29th-Wednesday 30th. Heavy Rain, Flooding and strong winds.

Advance warning of heavy rain (Up to 300mm in localised parts of Cork and Kerry) and Strong winds (Up to 130/140km/h gusts) for Tuesday 29th and Wednesday 30th December. Met Éireann have cited this storm may be called Frank. Flooding likely in the already saturated North-west/West/South-west.

Met Eireann weather warning issued:
"STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry
Southerly winds associated with Storm Frank will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km with gusts of 100 to 120 km/hour, strongest in coastal areas on Tuesday afternoon, evening and early night.
Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Tuesday 29 December 2015 23:59

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Wicklow, Galway, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Rainfall totals of 40 to 70 mm over 24 hours between Tuesday midday and Wednesday midday.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 18:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 12:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds will reach speeds of 45 to 65 km/hour with gusts of 90 to 109 km/hr, strongest on the south coast through the second half of Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Sligo, Roscommon, Mayo, Leitrim, Clare, Limerick, Tipperary and all Leinster except Wicklow.
Rainfall totals of 25 to 40 mm over 24 hours between Tuesday midday and Wednesday midday.

Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 18:00
Valid:Tuesday 29 December 2015 12:00 to Wednesday 30 December 2015 12:00"

Last edited by JCX BXC; 29-12-2015 at 00:43.
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27-12-2015, 22:01   #2
maquiladora
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27-12-2015, 22:20   #3
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Interesting few days of model watching ahead.
Almost as exciting as Lamp Post watching
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27-12-2015, 22:25   #4
Dazzo
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Interesting few days of model watching ahead.
Almost as exciting as Lamp Post watching
Is there a possibility of some lamp post watching new years eve?
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27-12-2015, 22:27   #5
Sammy2012
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Does this map mean they are giving severe gusts for wexford and wicklow areas??
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27-12-2015, 22:33   #6
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Does this map mean they are giving severe gusts for wexford and wicklow areas??
It's just one model, but yeah it's showing some strong gusts over the southeast at times during Wednesday. Not as severe as it looked like it would be a few days ago though.
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27-12-2015, 22:36   #7
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It's just one model, but yeah it's showing some strong gusts over the southeast at times during Wednesday. Not as severe as it looked like it would be a few days ago though.
Thanks for that.. hopefully it won't be as bad as that. Are the other models in agreement with this? Or is this model just going with worse case scenario?

Eta: sorry for all the questions..I follow the threads here all the time and I hate the wind. It did alot of damage in Feb 14 around here and would hate for a repeat of that again.
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27-12-2015, 22:42   #8
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Thanks for that.. hopefully it won't be as bad as that. Are the other models in agreement with this? Or is this model just going with worse case scenario?

Eta: sorry for all the questions..I follow the threads here all the time and I hate the wind. It did alot of damage in Feb 14 around here and would hate for a repeat of that again.
This other model also shows gusts possibly 110-120 kmh over the southeast on Wednesday. Might not turn out as strong as that though. I definitely wouldn't expect anything as severe as Feb 2014 at this stage.

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27-12-2015, 22:45   #9
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[quote="maquiladora;98209306"]This other model also shows gusts possibly 110-120 kmh over the southeast on Wednesday. Might not turn out as strong as that though. I definitely wouldn't expect anything as severe as Feb 2014

Thanks maq...will continue to keep an eye on details tomorrow. Hopefully won't be too bad. Thanks for your help.
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27-12-2015, 22:53   #10
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If that wind hits Dublin this thread will be mental!
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27-12-2015, 22:55   #11
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If that wind hits Dublin this thread will be mental!
Not just us poor Kerry gang constantly hammered!
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27-12-2015, 22:57   #12
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Not just us poor Kerry gang constantly hammered!
Its nice to see mother nature spread the love with this one!
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27-12-2015, 23:05   #13
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Highest this year from asford weather station was 66mph last month. If this scenario comes off it would possibly be 75mph so really a very significant event for east coast imo. Lots of power cuts and slates off and trees down with that storm in November so would be definitely be very cautious of this coming event if it does play out as above.
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27-12-2015, 23:11   #14
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Another model, just showing rainfall from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday. It doesn't include the rain before or after that. Cork and Kerry off the scale with 70+ mm in 24 hours, which would meet Met Eireann's criteria for a red warning for rainfall.

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27-12-2015, 23:49   #15
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Been comparing the earlier runs to the 18Z and it would apprear that the stronger winds off the W coast are that bit stronger and nearer the coastline on the later run. Weds looking very windy in the S, SE and E and with all that rainfall trying to leave the rivers.....







Going to be a monsterous sea on tues and weds, just coming out ot the high tides ,coastal erosion and flooding again a factor.
There is going to be some plethora of warnings tues and weds between wind and rain.

Last edited by Meteorite58; 28-12-2015 at 00:02.
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