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14-12-2015, 04:24   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Heavy rainfall Monday and early Tuesday Dec 14/15th for south coast counties

Get ready for a two-pronged assault on the south coast with pulses of heavy rainfall expected around 0900h and 2100h, some breaks may develop between them, and totals will be 30-50 mms with potential for 70 mm over higher parts of west Cork and south Kerry.

This rainfall will spread further north but amounts will generally be reduced to about 20-35 mm which would make it a borderline level one event away from the south coast.

Strong onshore south winds will force very high tides in estuaries and this will interact with the river levels to produce a higher flood risk.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 15-12-2015 at 07:04.
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14-12-2015, 07:07   #2
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Short-range model guidance is quite varied which is perhaps why no official warning at this time, Hirlam has the lowest accumulations of all. But some other models show 10-15 mm next three hours. Looks that way on radar now (mid-Cork and southeast Kerry to be the focus, drainage from there the flood concern). Similar evolution for phase two later. Also another round on Tuesday, once again similar pattern. 20 mm with that.
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14-12-2015, 07:13   #3
 
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It's very heavy in Cork City at the moment. Any sign of any dry weather ?
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14-12-2015, 07:16   #4
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holy smokes that some heavy rain on the radar over cork city right now. its pelting
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14-12-2015, 08:31   #5
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Trains between cork and cobh and midelton are suspended due to flooding.
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14-12-2015, 08:39   #6
leahyl
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Rain was pretty bad on my way to work this morning, a lot of surface water in the city.
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14-12-2015, 08:56   #7
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back road past cork airport flooded.

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14-12-2015, 10:08   #8
JCX BXC
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Another thread? Ah here I can't keep up anymore!

Can we be notified of new threads in the main winter thread?
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14-12-2015, 10:27   #9
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Very heavy rain here at the moment in south Laois...Depressing weather
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14-12-2015, 10:36   #10
Elmer Blooker
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Not looking good - heavy rain in east Galway which of course will end up in the Shannon via the River Suck.
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14-12-2015, 10:56   #11
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Though the rain is heavy in places, the front this morning is continually moving northward, so it isn't persistent rain over an area for an extended period of time.

Another band of rain will push into the southwest this evening though and then tomorrow morning more rain pushing into the south, and it looks like it might be a little heavier than this morning.
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14-12-2015, 17:49   #12
M.T. Cranium
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Downgraded to level one for the time being, feeling that the earlier level two was justified by the reports in the thread (smaller amounts of rain in general are now required to do the work of standard rainfall criteria, so we should probably err on the side of flooding results more than rainfall in the gauge so to speak).

Just a generally moist pattern for a few more days now, river levels are unlikely to drop very much even during a few hours of dry conditions. What's needed is a complete pattern change and a few weeks of below normal precip. This is sometimes known as March-April.
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14-12-2015, 20:15   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Downgraded to level one for the time being, feeling that the earlier level two was justified by the reports in the thread (smaller amounts of rain in general are now required to do the work of standard rainfall criteria, so we should probably err on the side of flooding results more than rainfall in the gauge so to speak).

Just a generally moist pattern for a few more days now, river levels are unlikely to drop very much even during a few hours of dry conditions. What's needed is a complete pattern change and a few weeks of below normal precip. This is sometimes known as March-April.
What I wonder about is if we had a second storm similar to Desmond while the ground is saturated and the rivers/lakes at peak levels i.e. back-to-back prolonged rain storms. It might not happen this year but it has to be a possibility given the climate change effects in the Gulf of Mexico.
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14-12-2015, 20:35   #14
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Rainfall Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Rainfall totals of between 25 and 30mm overnight and during Tuesday

Issued:
Monday 14 December 2015 20:00
Valid:
Monday 14 December 2015 20:00 to Tuesday 15 December 2015 22:00
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14-12-2015, 20:50   #15
Iancar29
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Certainly seems to be another heavy batch on the way. Check out the latest sat imagery showing the 2 nice vortices swirling away.
http://en.sat24.com/en
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